What? This is mind blowing.
1. Russell is not a 20 home run guy now or may never be because he is sacrificing power for average
2. Before he joined the big league club he walked exactly 14 times in over 300 at bats including the AFL. As he has promoted, his K has risen and BB had fallen.
3. Baez top end can not be matched for a MI in probably the majors.
4. I said Baez could walk at a 10% clip. You told me he couldn't because he has never walked over 8 %. Now, Russell is going to walk at a big rate when he hasn't been over 7 percent in his Cubs life. Walking in A+ means nothing. Just like Baez hitting 40 home runs means nothing in AA.
5. Baez is all around a better baseball player. What is stopping Baez is his K's. Russell is a great ball player that is young and will get better but you are being extremely hypocritical because you don't like Baez. Its ok. If Baez makes it, the Cubs just got better.
In reference to Russell's walk rate, over his entire minors he was at 9.5%. If we're going to bring up shit each other has said in the past then perhaps I should mention sample size. He's had around 300 PAs as a cub prospect after coming back from an injury vs around 900 in total. Also, he's walking at an 8% in May alone when he arguably should be as overmatched as Baez was last year at a similar age to MLB pitching. If you contrast that with Baez since you're brining him up, over Baez's 1444 minor league PAs he's walked at a 6.6% clip which happens to coincide exactly with what he walked at in the majors. If you're saying Baez can walk at a 10% clip then you're saying Russell can walk at at a 12-15% clip and my point about OBP still stands.
In reference to his HR rate, he hit 12 HRs in 205 PAs for the cubs last season in AA. Still don't believe it? Fangraph's prospect guy put his upside at 20-25 HRs. Now will he hit 20 HR's this year for the cubs? I seriously doubt it but I never said he would. I'm talking about what he's likely to be which isn't just my opinion. As I mention, that's what scouts have said.
As for "top end," if we're talking absolute best case where the god shine upon a player then sure, if Baez gets into the 20-22% k range he's probably unmatched as a player. If someone want's to believe that then fine. I'm done trying to convince people. But until I see it I don't believe it's realistic. In fact, I honestly don't buy 25% as realistic if he were called up today because if I'm not mistaken in that good 2 month stretch leading up to his call up last season he was around 26.5%. I'd buy 30% as a realistic goal for him presently in the majors because I honestly doubt he'd be as over matched this season. And at 30% he might even be an average to above average player. Soler has been.
I mean look I never was trying to turn this into a Baez vs Russell thing. Other people did that. I didn't even mention Baez in the quote that started this train. I pointed out that after Russell's first 5 games he's hitting around .270 with a .330 OBP which for a 21 year old is pretty legit. However, since we're going there... you said it yourself(as I have before you). Baez's potential is limited by his k rate. My view is that he doesn't improve enough to be better than Russell as a hitter. If you disagree whatever but you can't say it's not a valid concern. As for him being "the better baseball player" that may be your opinion but it's far from undisputed truth. Russell was the higher rated prospect even prior to Baez being called up by various sources. In addition, Russell has been the better player at the major league level thus far.
Also, I get a little tired of the straw man you put up with anything I say about Baez. I have never once said Baez couldn't improve. My stance has always been that while it's entirely possible he could get down to the 30% range this year, that's still striking out close to 1/3 of the time and players who do that generally aren't stars and relatively few are even productive players. My issue with Baez is at what point does improvement stop being realistic? Are going to say he's going to cut 17% off his K rate to put him under 25%? How often has that happened if ever? It's not like I sit here night after night hoping for Baez to fail. History shows the players that most often fail are the ones who strike out too much and that happens to be the knock on him.
