Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[CSF77]

Owen Cassie only had 509 PAs all season in the minors. They don't play anywhere near enough games for Shaw to get that many and come up midseason for the cubs. At absolute best he would need a similar path that PCA took this season and PCA is only coming up with like 19 games left in the MLB season with Iowa only having like 12 left.

And before it gets mentioned, Horton is very unlikely to figure into the cubs plans next season either. Cubs babied the fuck out of him this season only having him throw 84.1 IP. My guess is they stretch him out like 110-120 IP next season. Wicks for example has a better health track record and threw 7 IP his draft year(0 for Horton), 94.2 IP his first full year and thus far has only thrown 108 IP. He probably makes 1-2 more starts and I'd assume he's the odd man out when Stroman is back. Regardless, counting on Horton to have a David Price like playoff run is unlikely for a team you would at least hope to have playoff ambitions for in 2024. It's more likely they shut him down early than have him contribute late in the season.

Sept Horton and Shaw would be with in reason.

 

[TL1961]

I am not interested in opening a season with stopgaps.

 

[CSF77]

I am not interested in opening a season with stopgaps.

I think that is fair for a major market.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Updates on the farm:

Cubs ranked #1 in value.

Two different top ten lists.

My own thoughts. Initially I thought our farm was light on level 70 and 65 prospected, but it seems no one else in the MLB has those either, only a handful of 60 grade prospects exist, and most of ours are in the 45-55 range. But we are loaded at 45 and higher, and people in these ratings can move up as they get older and progress in unexpected ways.

Also Max Shaw might get the Nico Hoerner treatment and get up here next year somehow.

We will also have to keep making these trade deadline deals to keep the right people on the 40 man roster to protect from the rule 5 draft. The trade of Velasquez was one like that. Caissie and Alcantara have similar profiles and are a redundancy. I could see them trading Alcantara over Owen.

 

[CSF77]

Updates on the farm:

Cubs ranked #1 in value.

Two different top ten lists.

My own thoughts. Initially I thought our farm was light on level 70 and 65 prospected, but it seems no one else in the MLB has those either, only a handful of 60 grade prospects exist, and most of ours are in the 45-55 range. But we are loaded at 45 and higher, and people in these ratings can move up as they get older and progress in unexpected ways.

Also Max Shaw might get the Nico Hoerner treatment and get up here next year somehow.

We will also have to keep making these trade deadline deals to keep the right people on the 40 man roster to protect from the rule 5 draft. The trade of Velasquez was one like that. Caissie and Alcantara have similar profiles and are a redundancy. I could see them trading Alcantara over Owen.

Shaw might become a trade chip. His arm is not strong enough for 3B and most predict that he becomes a 2B due to it.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Shaw might become a trade chip. His arm is not strong enough for 3B and most predict that he becomes a 2B due to it.

Well the same thing was said about Madrigal, and that proved to be wrong. I am sure he can work on his arm a bit to be big league ready.

 

[CSF77]

Well the same thing was said about Madrigal, and that proved to be wrong. I am sure he can work on his arm a bit to be big league ready.

Mad has to move into his throwing range for the most part. Watch some vid on him. That means deep throws are going to be a issue.

I'm just not sold on it. Mad was just a cheap ass move. simple as that.

 

[CSF77]

 

[Skittles2100]

Cristian Hernandez is Killllllin it. .356/.497/.431 with a .898 ops. We got a baller incoming to the Cubs in 2026. Cant wait to see him build his frame. He has had some injuries but he has shown he isnt made of glass either. His bro, Alexis Hernandez, is a year behind and shows promise to have a really really good glove. I am hoping for a future Hernandez to Hernandez connection. I know some were worried about his past few years, but he was a kid coming in playing against older players who are fully developed physically. Now, hes showing off the gear we have been waiting for. Also....... I am a Cristian Hernandez super collector. For starters, I own 20 of his 1/1s from 2020-2021 and I picked most up when he was bad last year. Having some fun and selling a few off, but he is going to be pretty good in the future

 

[CSF77]

Cristian Hernandez is Killllllin it. .356/.497/.431 with a .898 ops. We got a baller incoming to the Cubs in 2026. Cant wait to see him build his frame. He has had some injuries but he has shown he isnt made of glass either. His bro, Alexis Hernandez, is a year behind and shows promise to have a really really good glove. I am hoping for a future Hernandez to Hernandez connection. I know some were worried about his past few years, but he was a kid coming in playing against older players who are fully developed physically. Now, hes showing off the gear we have been waiting for. Also....... I am a Cristian Hernandez super collector. For starters, I own 20 of his 1/1s from 2020-2021 and I picked most up when he was bad last year. Having some fun and selling a few off, but he is going to be pretty good in the future

Mmm. Forgot about him. I will wait until he is pulling that at AA. Too many prospects get forgotten in A ball.

 

[beckdawg]

Brennan Davis might turn things around this year. If you look at the typical numbers it appears bad(.156/.310/.250 for a 56 wRC+). With that being said he's walking.... like a lot. We're talking about 14 walks in 78 PAs between A+ and AAA(17.9%). He also seems to have worked his k rate down from his initial stops the past season and a half down to 22-23%. For reference his big break out year of 2021 he was at 16.2% bb and 22.1% k rate.

It appears as if what's still missing is just the quality of contact portion. He's currently sporting a .174 BABIP. His iso is pretty low at .094 but i think that's largely missing doubles. I'd expect him more in the .180-.200 range which if you have a .174 BABIP you're not touching.

I doubt he has much trade value until he's full broken back out but if the cubs are going to presumably be moving OF prospect in july he's an interesting one to keep around as a back up depth OF type with potential if he can stay healthy

 

[CSF77]

Marino Santy's ninth strikeout of the game | 05/10/2024

Cubs prospect Marino Santy register his ninth strikeout in five scoreless innings for Single-A Myrtle Beach

www.milb.com

Hmmm. Nasty pitch.

 

[beckdawg]

re: davis....

A Very Good Week for Cubs Prospect Brennen Davis - Bleacher Nation

It's great to see some things clicking for former top Cubs prospect Brennen Davis.

www.bleachernation.com

 

[knoxville7]

re: davis....

A Very Good Week for Cubs Prospect Brennen Davis - Bleacher Nation

It's great to see some things clicking for former top Cubs prospect Brennen Davis.

www.bleachernation.com

hope he keeps it up, he will make for a nice trade piece then at the deadline

 

[beckdawg]

I don't think he will be the trade piece. Way I see it is that it's more likely he makes a higher rated prospect more expendable. because i don't think he can regain enough value now to really net anything big. He'd need another full breakout year i feel like at this point because 2 months wont really show much

 

[beckdawg]

Well shit with the heater Davis' is on maybe i'm wrong about him regaining enough value. Guy is scorching hot to the point he looks better than he did when he was a top 50 prospect from a numbers stand point. His break out year in 2021 he hit .260/.375/.494 with a 12% walk rate and a 28.4% k rate to go along with a .234 iso between 3 levels(A+/AA/AAA). The biggest chunk of that was AA where his wRC+ was 135.

As of today he's hitting .232/.416/.554 with a 18.2% walk rate and a 24.7% k rate to go along with a .321 ISO for a 147 wRC+. His batting average looks a bit low but he's also sporting a .212 BABIP still which isn't usual for him and doesn't fit his profile(speedy guys usually are better than average).

If this is what he is now and he can stay healthy he's the best OF prospect the cubs have in my opinion. Alcantara has a high ceiling but that walk rate right now from Davis is absurd with his power. Cassie has a similar 18.2% walk rate and similar power but he strikes out a bit more and isn't as defensively valuable.

Either way cubs got some tough decisions to make especially with Happ not really hitting this year.

 

[TL1961]

They do, but that's a good problem to have.

Thanks for the update.