Cubs offseason needs/ Talk

[Discus fish salesman]

This market turned against the CUbs. The Cubs needed shorter deals at higher AAV, and it seems everyone went lower AAV and longer years.

So the Cubs aren't realistic or competitive in what is going on. Sounds good

 

[JP Hochbaum]

So the Cubs aren't realistic or competitive in what is going on. Sounds good

Nah, it didn't fit with where they are right now. If they were one player away then it makes sense. THey need a lot more than one guy.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

I also think as we get closer to spring training trade targets will come up. I'd like for the Cubs to make some calls to Toronto about Bo Bichette.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

Nah, it didn't fit with where they are right now. If they were one player away then it makes sense. THey need a lot more than one guy.

There's multiple reasons to sign superstars to big contracts. The being one player away thing is an excuse

 

[JP Hochbaum]

And I like the idea of Swanson for about 6 years, and having his last 2 years or so he transitions into an expensive bench player that gives experience to our team and the shortstops we have coming up.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

There's multiple reasons to sign superstars to big contracts. The being one player away thing is an excuse

Not an excuse, it makes no sense to commit this much to guys that aren't even top 20 players in the MLB. Next year we have Ohtani, Machado and Devers who will be those top 10 guys, and we can trade for and extend either Ohtani or Devers if their teams are selling at the deadline, so we don't let them get to the market.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

And I like the idea of Swanson for about 6 years, and having his last 2 years or so he transitions into an expensive bench player that gives experience to our team and the shortstops we have coming up.

Well if you like him you better get ready for at least 8 years otherwise hoyer will have put together one of the most embarrassing off-seasons in recent memory and be looking for a new job in a year or 2

 

[Discus fish salesman]

Not an excuse, it makes no sense to commit this much to guys that aren't even top 20 players in the MLB. Next year we have Ohtani, Machado and Devers who will be those top 10 guys, and we can trade for and extend either Ohtani or Devers if their teams are selling at the deadline, so we don't let them get to the market.

None of those players are extending 1/2 a year before they get to FA after seeing these contracts. Cubs will have to outbid other teams significantly because they don't have any other selling points as they are still a rebuilding team with no established stars. Cubs aren't outbidding anyone with hoyer as was shown this off-season

 

[JP Hochbaum]

None of those players are extending 1/2 a year before they get to FA after seeing these contracts. Cubs will have to outbid other teams significantly because they don't have any other selling points as they are still a rebuilding team with no established stars. Cubs aren't outbidding anyone with hoyer as was shown this off-season

Not signing bad deals is a good plan, this idea that Hoyer din't have a plan is stupid. He just didn't buy into bad contracts.

0 world series wins to teams that sign guys to ten year deals as free agents. These never work.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

Not signing bad deals is a good plan, this idea that Hoyer din't have a plan is stupid. He just didn't buy into bad contracts.

0 world series wins to teams that sign guys to ten year deals as free agents. These never work.

Every big market team ends up with bad contracts. It's the cost of doing business. And when you say they never work idk what you mean. Over the entirety of the contract obviously not, which every team knows. But harper just went to a world series and has a chance to make more runs in coming years. Betts won a world series in LA and also has a chance to win more there. I think those teams will be alright.

Another thing to take note of is when you sign longer term deals at lower AAV's which other teams are doing, the cost doesn't look so bad on the back end when contracts have continued to balloon over 8-12 years. There's also potential to frontload deals where the players get paid more when they will be producing. Correa is 26 mill/yr for 13 years. If front loaded he could be making under $20 mill on the back end which will hardly be an issue.

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

Speaking as a guy that used to LOVE baseball and now watches one or two games a year….

These players and owners have ruined baseball.

13 year contracts? LOLOLOLOLOL

Fucking fools. They’re killing the sport.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Every big market team ends up with bad contracts. It's the cost of doing business. And when you say they never work idk what you mean. Over the entirety of the contract obviously not, which every team knows. But harper just went to a world series and has a chance to make more runs in coming years. Betts won a world series in LA and also has a chance to win more there. I think those teams will be alright.

Another thing to take note of is when you sign longer term deals at lower AAV's which other teams are doing, the cost doesn't look so bad on the back end when contracts have continued to balloon over 8-12 years. There's also potential to frontload deals where the players get paid more when they will be producing. Correa is 26 mill/yr for 13 years. If front loaded he could be making under $20 mill on the back end which will hardly be an issue.

I mean the evidence shows they don't work, Betts was a trade who they extended. Right now people are reacting emotionally to not getting players that were not going to make the Cubs WS winners this year. Correa would have made us better but it would have taken a lot of things going well this year for that addition to make us a playoff team. You don't spend on that contract for an outside chance for everything to go right to get to the playoffs.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

I mean the evidence shows they don't work, Betts was a trade who they extended. Right now people are reacting emotionally to not getting players that were not going to make the Cubs WS winners this year. Correa would have made us better but it would have taken a lot of things going well this year for that addition to make us a playoff team. You don't spend on that contract for an outside chance for everything to go right to get to the playoffs.

Whyd the Cubs spend on Lester?

Also, the reaction is because hoyer, Ricketts, and Kenney pretty much said they would be spending a lot this off-season. So they only have themselves to thank for the backlash when hoyer continues to lose out on every FA. These contracts aren't a new thing. The longer contracts have been a thing for several years and it seems other teams are learning to leverage it for lower AAV's while they cubs sit idly by and act shocked

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Whyd the Cubs spend on Lester?

Because it was coinciding with a time they were ready to pounce. THey knew they had Bryant, Russell, Baez, Soler, etc... all coming up as well.
In 2023 we may have Davis and Mervis come up but they are no where near the prospects the 2015 class was.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

Because it was coinciding with a time they were ready to pounce. THey knew they had Bryant, Russell, Baez, Soler, etc... all coming up as well.
In 2023 we may have Davis and Mervis come up but they are no where near the prospects the 2015 class was.

The Cubs were expected to be a year out from their window at that time. Currently people think a window should open for the Cubs next year (2024) with a lot of pitching being ready along with PCA, Davis, Mervis and Alcantara.

Again though, as my edited post above says. Cubs brought the backlash on themselves. They were very open about how aggressive they'd be and how they had much more money to spend this off-season. This is their own doing and I very much think hoyer is on the hot seat with Ricketts

 

[czman]

Yeah, Betts was on Arb when they won. He signed the next year and I think it was before he even hit free agency.

Alex Rodriguez won a WS on a 10 plus year deal so I know it has happened. I will add though that most of the 10 year deals that were better were all during the heavy PED Era. Now that the league is more closely monitored I think we will see players generally start to decline sooner and more steeply.

I really hope the Cubs avoid these types of deals. Most hitters will be in full decline past 34 so half of these deals may be bad years where you are paying someone and filling a bench spot that is functionally worthless.

MLB will have to adjust to post heavy PED Era. These deals should be about 8 years.

Lastly, I say heavy PED because while I am sure players are still cheating I don't think it is as prevalent or players are gaining as much benefit.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

The Cubs were expected to be a year out from their window at that time. Currently people think a window should open for the Cubs next year (2024) with a lot of pitching being ready along with PCA, Davis, Mervis and Alcantara.

Again though, as my edited post above says. Cubs brought the backlash on themselves. They were very open about how aggressive they'd be and how they had much more money to spend this off-season. This is their own doing and I very much think hoyer is on the hot seat with Ricketts

So Lester was a 7 year deal, this comp is really not applicable. Should have pointed that in my previous post. And left handed pitchers typically play well past their 35th bday. Position players typically fall off quickly after age 33. SO most of these contracts have 5-7 years of bad years in them. And I agree that the Cubs did this to themselves. Ricketts and Crane should have stayed in their lane. They are making Hoyer look bad.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

So Lester was a 7 year deal, this comp is really not applicable. Should have pointed that in my previous post. And left handed pitchers typically play well past their 35th bday. Position players typically fall off quickly after age 33. SO most of these contracts have 5-7 years of bad years in them. And I agree that the Cubs did this to themselves. Ricketts and Crane should have stayed in their lane. They are making Hoyer look bad.

Hoyer has yet to close on a big name FA without Theo though. His success is a product of riding theos coattails. Until he proves differently. He probably isn't going to last too much longer in Chicago

 

[knoxville7]

Ohtani in cubs blue at the trade deadline sounds good to me

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Hoyer has yet to close on a big name FA without Theo though. His success is a product of riding theos coattails. Until he proves differently. He probably isn't going to last too much longer in Chicago

Stroman, Suzuki, Taillon? I guess we are doing revisionist history now?