Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[CSF77]

I would like that trade of Russell for Machado

Way i look at it is...

Baez can take over 2B 2018 and Machado SS

Happ can be super utility role
Zobrist can get spot starts in LF RF 2B


Cubs then will have all year to talk to his agent for extension or at least get a feel of what he wants, plus Machado will have a year of getting to know players, management , organization , playing in WF with the fans, and hopefully winning..

He does extend, that could give Harper a little more incentive to sign ..
Imagine being in lineup with Machado Bryant Rizzo
Maybe he wont look for a crazy deal with them..

He doesn't extend and looks to test market, cubs at least have advantage of him knowing organization and knowing what he looking for..
Keep that line of communication open...
Choose between him and Harper..

Maybe talk to both together and seeing if all sides can come to an agreement for both to sign...


They dont sign Machado..

2019 Baez SS Happ 2B and they gotta go hard for Harper

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You would have to look at what you are buying. It is 1 year of control. Anything else is not factored in. So it is 1 year for 4 years of control. Nothing else.

Speculative speaking I would not believe they would do this. They would lose a GG level SS D for a 3B converted over. Then would be left with Baez after. When asked about Russell management preferred Russell at SS. They felt ok with Baez there.

So it is just a bad business decision. These decisions deplete a team of talent in a fast way. It is like doing a Chapman deal every year. Eventually all you have left is replacement players.

I look at it this way: this O as it is scored 800 runs. This is not even a issue.

This logic is about who has the shiniest toys.

 

[TL1961]

I would like that trade of Russell for Machado

Way i look at it is...

Baez can take over 2B 2018 and Machado SS

Happ can be super utility role
Zobrist can get spot starts in LF RF 2B


Cubs then will have all year to talk to his agent for extension or at least get a feel of what he wants, plus Machado will have a year of getting to know players, management , organization , playing in WF with the fans, and hopefully winning..

He does extend, that could give Harper a little more incentive to sign ..
Imagine being in lineup with Machado Bryant Rizzo
Maybe he wont look for a crazy deal with them..

He doesn't extend and looks to test market, cubs at least have advantage of him knowing organization and knowing what he looking for..
Keep that line of communication open...
Choose between him and Harper..

Maybe talk to both together and seeing if all sides can come to an agreement for both to sign...


They dont sign Machado..

2019 Baez SS Happ 2B and they gotta go hard for Harper

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So if Machado extends, we still go after Harper. (Where all that $ comes from, God knows)

But if Machado does NOT extend and hits FA, we still pursue, but have to choose?

I don’t follow this reasoning. (Unless, like Cards fans, we think a guy will love us so much he will extend for half his value)

 

[TL1961]

You would have to look at what you are buying. It is 1 year of control. Anything else is not factored in. So it is 1 year for 4 years of control. Nothing else.

Speculative speaking I would not believe they would do this. They would lose a GG level SS D for a 3B converted over. Then would be left with Baez after. When asked about Russell management preferred Russell at SS. They felt ok with Baez there.

So it is just a bad business decision. These decisions deplete a team of talent in a fast way. It is like doing a Chapman deal every year. Eventually all you have left is replacement players.

I look at it this way: this O as it is scored 800 runs. This is not even a issue.

This logic is about who has the shiniest toys.

And keeping him from St Louis.

 

[CSF77]

And keeping him from St Louis.

1 year and it costs them future success? I would gamble on it honestly. Theo even said that this year was a transition year for them and STL might strike on it. Because the Cubs will end up owning it the rest of the way.

I’m guessing that they will keep their options open for Madbum/Shaw/Harper/full control of Machado vs 1 year.

It makes more sense to sign Machado in 2019 then trade Russell’s 3 years of control for prospect refil

Vs

Sell Russell for Machado and lose both.

It is just stupid. Backwards and stupid and shit like this gets managers ass canned by ownership.

 

[chibears55]

You would have to look at what you are buying. It is 1 year of control. Anything else is not factored in. So it is 1 year for 4 years of control. Nothing else.

Speculative speaking I would not believe they would do this. They would lose a GG level SS D for a 3B converted over. Then would be left with Baez after. When asked about Russell management preferred Russell at SS. They felt ok with Baez there.

So it is just a bad business decision. These decisions deplete a team of talent in a fast way. It is like doing a Chapman deal every year. Eventually all you have left is replacement players.

I look at it this way: this O as it is scored 800 runs. This is not even a issue.

This logic is about who has the shiniest toys.

Machado a natural SS who was converted to 3B, and unless im wrong he was considered a GG caliber SS and actually better there then 3B..

The choice for cubs is do they want to roll the dice on Machado resigning or roll the dice on Russell improving with bat..
But there no doubt on who the better player is right now..

As far as runs scored last year
Yes they scored 822 but in a funny way they still struggled offensively

481 runs in 50 games almost 10 per

341 plus runs 112 games 3 per

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[chibears55]

So if Machado extends, we still go after Harper. (Where all that $ comes from, God knows)

But if Machado does NOT extend and hits FA, we still pursue, but have to choose?

I don’t follow this reasoning. (Unless, like Cards fans, we think a guy will love us so much he will extend for half his value)

Let not forget after 2019 they'll be getting that billion dollar tv deal..
So, theyll have money

Luxery tax will be over 206 and 210 mil between 2019 and 2021

So, money shouldn't be a problem
Especially considering there no big future commitment right now tying them up..

Theyll have all season to try and extend Machado because they can only talk to him...

Im dropping different scenarios.....

1..If they are able to extend and are interested in Harper , having Machado on board can play as a little more incentive for Harper to want to join him with Bryant and Rizzo ..

2.. he doesn't extend and cubs want both, they at least have advantage with Machado and could try and see if they can get both to agree to reasonable deals if they want to play together

3.. if both want mega deals, then yes the cubs would decide who they want more between the two or who they can work out a deal with..



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[Omeletpants]

You know what that amount is or are you just gonna assume and guess???



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General estimates are $700M. You think any team is going to commit that?

 

[chibears55]

General estimates are $700M. You think any team is going to commit that?

Doubt they combine for that because i doubt teams will offer Harper 40 mil for 10 and Machado 30 mil for 10...

But as far as cubs are concerned we have no clue what Machado would be willing to take from cubs if he were already on team and what Harper would accept from cubs with Machado or not, and if he wants to play on cubs and with Bryant...

As i mentioned above...

Cubs will have that billion dollar tv deal after 2019 , so they will have money to spend...
Luxery tax will be over 206 mil by then too

Right now cubs commited salary..

101 mil 2019

59 mil 2020

30 mil 2021

So , theyll have room with no big commitment as of now

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[CSF77]

Machado a natural SS who was converted to 3B, and unless im wrong he was considered a GG caliber SS and actually better there then 3B..

The choice for cubs is do they want to roll the dice on Machado resigning or roll the dice on Russell improving with bat..
But there no doubt on who the better player is right now..

As far as runs scored last year
Yes they scored 822 but in a funny way they still struggled offensively

481 runs in 50 games almost 10 per

341 plus runs 112 games 3 per

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The problem was B.B./9 and the starting pitching shitting the bed in the first half

You notice that what turned around the first half was adding Q. It was not adding a slugger

After that Jake and John stabilized. And Hendricks came back. Again they did not add a bat.

What caused the collapse vs the dodgers? BB/9. That bit imploded. It was a major issue before.

The Cubs are talented and young and under control. What they needed to fix was the pen. Replacing starters. Not running off to LF and fixing what ain’t broke.

Well added 2 catches but that is a minor adjustment replacing a head case and injury issues. Almost non factor.

 

[CSF77]

Anyways if they were going to go off the board it makes more sense to sign Cain. They need a lead off. But I’m feeling that they will go back to Schwarber lite. See if his off season plan works or not.

If they are going to take on payroll they are targeting Yu and this is the move that must happen. This locks up the rotation until 2020. It is a need vs a luxury. They score runs. They need to limit better.

Then it sets them up for 2019 and Harper. Who knows if they will even need him. If the talent on hand performs to what their ability is most teams are not going to want to face them.

But seeing Yu every 5th or Montgomery.?

 

[TL1961]

You know what that amount is or are you just gonna assume and guess???



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I have a pretty good idea, and it's about $ 65 - 70 million per year.

 

[chibears55]

I have a pretty good idea, and it's about $ 65 - 70 million per year.

Like i told omelette , i doubt it....



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[TL1961]

1 year and it costs them future success? I would gamble on it honestly. Theo even said that this year was a transition year for them and STL might strike on it. Because the Cubs will end up owning it the rest of the way.

I’m guessing that they will keep their options open for Madbum/Shaw/Harper/full control of Machado vs 1 year.

It makes more sense to sign Machado in 2019 then trade Russell’s 3 years of control for prospect refil

Vs

Sell Russell for Machado and lose both.

It is just stupid. Backwards and stupid and shit like this gets managers ass canned by ownership.

I'm not lobbying for the trade.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm not saying I'd do the Machado trade but my question is why would the Cubs trade Russell over Baez? Russell could just as easily move to 2B where he was also fantastic when the cubs had Castro. Russell has also proven to be a better hitter. He's even younger. If it were Machado for Baez and parts I think it's a much more interesting deal.

 

[CSF77]

It is still the same nut Beck. Control for no control.

Baez is a 2 WAR player. 4 years of control is 8 WAR sent over. It is pretty safe to say Manny will not put up a 8 WAR season.

So just on a value the number just don’t match up and that is if Baez ends up a fringe starter. If he get full time play he could end up closer to 2.5-3 WAR per which makes the deal plain dumb.

Over all it is a dumb idea that Jessie tossed out

 

[beckdawg]

LA, which made the trade for luxury tax purposes, previously tried to send Gonzalez, Kazmir and McCarthy to the Marlins as part of a package for now-Yankee Giancarlo Stanton, according to Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times.

Interesting tidbit i hadn't heard.

 

[beckdawg]

It is still the same nut Beck. Control for no control.

Baez is a 2 WAR player. 4 years of control is 8 WAR sent over. It is pretty safe to say Manny will not put up a 8 WAR season.

So just on a value the number just don’t match up and that is if Baez ends up a fringe starter. If he get full time play he could end up closer to 2.5-3 WAR per which makes the deal plain dumb.

Over all it is a dumb idea that Jessie tossed out

Like I said I'm not sure if I would do it but if it were Baez I'd at least consider it. It doesn't necessarily have to be about equal value. If Machado is enough to win you another championship the value is irrelevant in my eyes. And i mean you'll get a 2nd round pick if he were to leave. But given the state of the cubs club house these days I feel like if you're young you want to be there.

The bigger problem for me is it doesn't really solve their pitching issues. And it seems increasingly likely that Harper wants to come to the cubs. Hell Machado the FA might also want the cubs too. So I'd sorta rather fix that before even broaching those two players.

 

[beckdawg]

So with the rumors that the cubs are kicking the tires on Darvish I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that he's likely their #1 priority. I view him as 1A and Davis as 1B if that fails. ATM they are around $37.5 mil under the luxury tax. The last two years they've gone into the season at $171 and $172 mil. They are currently at $149 mil. So, realistically you're likely talking more like $25-30 mil left to spend. You gotta leave some wiggle room for in season 40 man adds and such.

I've said this before but I don't think the #1 pitcher market is all that hot. Like other than the cubs who's driving that market? Houston has Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, and Charlie Morton who are all projected to be quite good. LAD have Kershaw, Hill, Maeda, Wood, and Ryu not to mention several really good young guys. NYY have 5 guys already in Severino Sabathia, Gray, Montgomery and Tanaka. Cubs as the other NLCS team would be interested. Arizona supposedly is trying to trade away Grienke and or Corbin so them adding Darvish would be nuts. The nationals are loaded with pitching. Stras Scherzer Gio Roark + 1 doesn't really seem to need Darvish. Minny could use Darvish but can they afford him? Cleveland can't afford the players they've got so they definitely can't add Darvish.

Unless there's something I'm missing the teams in the hunt for Darvish/Arrieta would appear to be the cubs, maybe Minny, Philly, Texas, maybe LAA and that's about all I got. The O's supposedly want pitching but they are talking about trading Machado... what sense does Arrieta/Darvish make? The only other AL team I could conceivably see is the M's but they are up pretty hard against the luxury tax. The other thing to consider is teams might be keeping salary back for 2019's FA class which is going to be huge.

I'm not sure Darvish gets 7 years. He's 31 and it seems like the playoffs dinged him enough to hurt his value a little. The assumption going into the offseason was he'd get ~$25 mil AAV. But if you look at that list of teams who's going to drastically over pay to get him? Minny probably can't. Their opening day payroll was $108 mil last year so $25 mil to them is 1/4th of their total payroll. They also are already at $95 mil. Texas has already signed Fister and Minor as starters and just traded for Matt Moore. Add in Martin Perez and Hamels that's 5 guys albeit not your most compelling rotation. To me they look like deal hunters at this point. Good deal pops up sure you make the room. I'm not sure LAA can sign anyone for $25 mil and stay under the luxury tax. They are ~$28 mil under but teams generally save $7-10 mil for in season moves. Like wise the M's are at ~$25 mil. Philly has the money and may want to make a move but they are a harder sell.

I don't know maybe I'm missing a team here but I'm honestly wondering if Darvish doesn't end up with a Cueto contract(6 years $125 mil with a 7th year $22/5 mil option). I think you could argue maybe Darvish gets a little more than that but that's still a far sight away from $25 mil.

 

[Iceman2385]

So with the rumors that the cubs are kicking the tires on Darvish I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that he's likely their #1 priority. I view him as 1A and Davis as 1B if that fails. ATM they are around $37.5 mil under the luxury tax. The last two years they've gone into the season at $171 and $172 mil. They are currently at $149 mil. So, realistically you're likely talking more like $25-30 mil left to spend. You gotta leave some wiggle room for in season 40 man adds and such.

I've said this before but I don't think the #1 pitcher market is all that hot. Like other than the cubs who's driving that market? Houston has Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, and Charlie Morton who are all projected to be quite good. LAD have Kershaw, Hill, Maeda, Wood, and Ryu not to mention several really good young guys. NYY have 5 guys already in Severino Sabathia, Gray, Montgomery and Tanaka. Cubs as the other NLCS team would be interested. Arizona supposedly is trying to trade away Grienke and or Corbin so them adding Darvish would be nuts. The nationals are loaded with pitching. Stras Scherzer Gio Roark + 1 doesn't really seem to need Darvish. Minny could use Darvish but can they afford him? Cleveland can't afford the players they've got so they definitely can't add Darvish.

Unless there's something I'm missing the teams in the hunt for Darvish/Arrieta would appear to be the cubs, maybe Minny, Philly, Texas, maybe LAA and that's about all I got. The O's supposedly want pitching but they are talking about trading Machado... what sense does Arrieta/Darvish make? The only other AL team I could conceivably see is the M's but they are up pretty hard against the luxury tax. The other thing to consider is teams might be keeping salary back for 2019's FA class which is going to be huge.

I'm not sure Darvish gets 7 years. He's 31 and it seems like the playoffs dinged him enough to hurt his value a little. The assumption going into the offseason was he'd get ~$25 mil AAV. But if you look at that list of teams who's going to drastically over pay to get him? Minny probably can't. Their opening day payroll was $108 mil last year so $25 mil to them is 1/4th of their total payroll. They also are already at $95 mil. Texas has already signed Fister and Minor as starters and just traded for Matt Moore. Add in Martin Perez and Hamels that's 5 guys albeit not your most compelling rotation. To me they look like deal hunters at this point. Good deal pops up sure you make the room. I'm not sure LAA can sign anyone for $25 mil and stay under the luxury tax. They are ~$28 mil under but teams generally save $7-10 mil for in season moves. Like wise the M's are at ~$25 mil. Philly has the money and may want to make a move but they are a harder sell.

I don't know maybe I'm missing a team here but I'm honestly wondering if Darvish doesn't end up with a Cueto contract(6 years $125 mil with a 7th year $22/5 mil option). I think you could argue maybe Darvish gets a little more than that but that's still a far sight away from $25 mil.

Personally I’d offer him 6/150 right now n be done w it. I think that’s a good deal for the Cubs IMO.

 

[Iceman2385]

So with the rumors that the cubs are kicking the tires on Darvish I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that he's likely their #1 priority. I view him as 1A and Davis as 1B if that fails. ATM they are around $37.5 mil under the luxury tax. The last two years they've gone into the season at $171 and $172 mil. They are currently at $149 mil. So, realistically you're likely talking more like $25-30 mil left to spend. You gotta leave some wiggle room for in season 40 man adds and such.

I've said this before but I don't think the #1 pitcher market is all that hot. Like other than the cubs who's driving that market? Houston has Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, and Charlie Morton who are all projected to be quite good. LAD have Kershaw, Hill, Maeda, Wood, and Ryu not to mention several really good young guys. NYY have 5 guys already in Severino Sabathia, Gray, Montgomery and Tanaka. Cubs as the other NLCS team would be interested. Arizona supposedly is trying to trade away Grienke and or Corbin so them adding Darvish would be nuts. The nationals are loaded with pitching. Stras Scherzer Gio Roark + 1 doesn't really seem to need Darvish. Minny could use Darvish but can they afford him? Cleveland can't afford the players they've got so they definitely can't add Darvish.

Unless there's something I'm missing the teams in the hunt for Darvish/Arrieta would appear to be the cubs, maybe Minny, Philly, Texas, maybe LAA and that's about all I got. The O's supposedly want pitching but they are talking about trading Machado... what sense does Arrieta/Darvish make? The only other AL team I could conceivably see is the M's but they are up pretty hard against the luxury tax. The other thing to consider is teams might be keeping salary back for 2019's FA class which is going to be huge.

I'm not sure Darvish gets 7 years. He's 31 and it seems like the playoffs dinged him enough to hurt his value a little. The assumption going into the offseason was he'd get ~$25 mil AAV. But if you look at that list of teams who's going to drastically over pay to get him? Minny probably can't. Their opening day payroll was $108 mil last year so $25 mil to them is 1/4th of their total payroll. They also are already at $95 mil. Texas has already signed Fister and Minor as starters and just traded for Matt Moore. Add in Martin Perez and Hamels that's 5 guys albeit not your most compelling rotation. To me they look like deal hunters at this point. Good deal pops up sure you make the room. I'm not sure LAA can sign anyone for $25 mil and stay under the luxury tax. They are ~$28 mil under but teams generally save $7-10 mil for in season moves. Like wise the M's are at ~$25 mil. Philly has the money and may want to make a move but they are a harder sell.

I don't know maybe I'm missing a team here but I'm honestly wondering if Darvish doesn't end up with a Cueto contract(6 years $125 mil with a 7th year $22/5 mil option). I think you could argue maybe Darvish gets a little more than that but that's still a far sight away from $25 mil.

However I wouldn’t count out the Dodgers on signing DArvish.