Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[beckdawg]

However I wouldn’t count out the Dodgers on signing DArvish.

See I don't see why they would do that. Even after the trade yesterday they are still looking at this for potential rotation members

Kershaw($35.571(can opt out after this year)//$34.571/$35.571)
Hill($16.667/$18.667)
Wood(Arb2/Arb3)
Maeda($3.125/$3.125/$3.125/$3.125/$3.125/$3.125)
Ryu($7.833)
Ross Stripling(pre arb2/pre arb3/arb1/arb2/arb3)
Julio Urias(think he has his full rookie contract through arb still but might be pre arb 2)
Brock Stewart(pre arb2/pre arb3/arb1/arb2/arb3)

And more importantly for them they still have Walker Buehler, Yadier Alvarez, Mitchell White, Dennis Santana and Trevor Oaks who finished at AA or higher as well as some interesting guys in A ball. Also the entire reason they made that trade yesterday with the braves was to stay under the luxury tax. Right now they are projected to be at $179.3 mil before we even talk about Darvish. The absolute least I could see Darvish getting is $20 mi/year which still puts them over.

In other words, I think there's 0 chance they sign Darvish. Even if they magically got someone to eat Kemp's contract for prospects I don't see that as being their best use of money. Kershaw and Hill were fantastic. Wood is a bit of an injury risk but he was also fantastic. Urias was a top 10 prospect and the best pitcher at the time he got called up. Buehler is likely to be a top 15 prospect. and Ryu and Maeda have been great in the past and certainly wouldn't be bad #5.

Edit: one other thing. I believe that since the dodgers had been over the luxury tax for 5 straight years they also pay 50% tax on any player they acquire. So, $25 mil for Darvish is now $37.5 mil

 

[CSF77]

Dodgers are out on Darvish. They were forced into that trade to reset the tax. 20-30 to 50% for every year over. They are resetting this year most likely to set up to go over again next year.

Darvish has been connected to a few teams like the Twins etc. Cubs makes the most sense with market size and core.

On payroll: cots is not including Cishek yet because the details are not set. It is 2 years but the breakdown is not public yet.

I was guessing 154 mil myself atm.

Darvish should cost them 6/160 I would go 30/30/30//25/25/20.

 

[chibears55]

It is still the same nut Beck. Control for no control.

Baez is a 2 WAR player. 4 years of control is 8 WAR sent over. It is pretty safe to say Manny will not put up a 8 WAR season.

So just on a value the number just don’t match up and that is if Baez ends up a fringe starter. If he get full time play he could end up closer to 2.5-3 WAR per which makes the deal plain dumb.

Over all it is a dumb idea that Jessie tossed out

You would only be losing 3 years of Russell/Baez control if Machado don't resign...

2018 you'd have Machado at SS with his 3.5 WAR


Anyhow, it probably not worth discussing further because im sure Theo not even thinking about it...



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[CSF77]

You would only be losing 3 years of Russell/Baez control if Machado don't resign...

2018 you'd have Machado at SS with his 3.5 WAR


Anyhow, it probably not worth discussing further because im sure Theo not even thinking about it...



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Honestly if Schwarber is able to impact it won’t matter

I see the line up as

Schwarber LF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Contreras C
Heyward RF
Russell SS
Almora CF
Baez 2B

For the most part. They have 3 SH’s in Zobrist, Happ and Caritini. Then LaStella and Zag. So that is decent in flexibility.

Zag walks a lot so you could muse him in LF leading off bs lefties that Schwarber matches up bad against.

Happ and Zobrist give plenty of movement for days off and LaStella is basically a PH.

 

[DanTown]

Manny Machado last three years

.280/.338/.502

Russell second half (granted just 102 PA)

.274/.324/.516

I like Machado as a player but this isn't trading for a year of a super high value player like a year of Bryce Harper. And he doesn't really solve a problem. I'd much rather trade Russell for a SP or even a top prospect than trade for a year of a SS.

 

[CSF77]

Manny Machado last three years

.280/.338/.502

Russell second half (granted just 102 PA)

.274/.324/.516

I like Machado as a player but this isn't trading for a year of a super high value player like a year of Bryce Harper. And he doesn't really solve a problem. I'd much rather trade Russell for a SP or even a top prospect than trade for a year of a SS.

Honestly if they sign Darvish the only glaring question marks are if Schwarber can be a legit lead off and is Morrow a MLB closer. Those are the big 2 issues going on. But the biggest need is Darvish.

 

[Hammer]

Why not try Almora at leadoff, and have high powered lineup from #2 to #6 (Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Schwarber/Baez/Happ).

Btw. if Cubs are able to get Darvish, that will bridge the gap to the point when Alzolay/Albertos/DeLaCruz etc. are ready for majors 2020 (with additional potential wild card - Bumgarner).

 

[Iceman2385]

See I don't see why they would do that. Even after the trade yesterday they are still looking at this for potential rotation members

Kershaw($35.571(can opt out after this year)//$34.571/$35.571)
Hill($16.667/$18.667)
Wood(Arb2/Arb3)
Maeda($3.125/$3.125/$3.125/$3.125/$3.125/$3.125)
Ryu($7.833)
Ross Stripling(pre arb2/pre arb3/arb1/arb2/arb3)
Julio Urias(think he has his full rookie contract through arb still but might be pre arb 2)
Brock Stewart(pre arb2/pre arb3/arb1/arb2/arb3)

And more importantly for them they still have Walker Buehler, Yadier Alvarez, Mitchell White, Dennis Santana and Trevor Oaks who finished at AA or higher as well as some interesting guys in A ball. Also the entire reason they made that trade yesterday with the braves was to stay under the luxury tax. Right now they are projected to be at $179.3 mil before we even talk about Darvish. The absolute least I could see Darvish getting is $20 mi/year which still puts them over.

In other words, I think there's 0 chance they sign Darvish. Even if they magically got someone to eat Kemp's contract for prospects I don't see that as being their best use of money. Kershaw and Hill were fantastic. Wood is a bit of an injury risk but he was also fantastic. Urias was a top 10 prospect and the best pitcher at the time he got called up. Buehler is likely to be a top 15 prospect. and Ryu and Maeda have been great in the past and certainly wouldn't be bad #5.

Edit: one other thing. I believe that since the dodgers had been over the luxury tax for 5 straight years they also pay 50% tax on any player they acquire. So, $25 mil for Darvish is now $37.5 mil

Yea I hope so, yea that luxury tax is getting dehabiliting even for them. They do have an impressive amount of depth. But after Kershaw they have some ?s. Hills getting old, i actually love Wood, but is he a frontline starter? Maeda seemed better in the pen, Urias is no garuantee, Ryu I have no idea about, guessing he just isn’t that good anymore. If they could somehow sign DArvish wout going over the luxury tax I’m sure they’d strongly consider it. But yea ur prob right LA seems to be out on DArvish, LA just always makes me nervous w FAs lol.

 

[Omeletpants]

Why not try Almora at leadoff,

Because he refuses to take a walk

 

[beckdawg]

Yea I hope so, yea that luxury tax is getting dehabiliting even for them. They do have an impressive amount of depth. But after Kershaw they have some ?s. Hills getting old, i actually love Wood, but is he a frontline starter? Maeda seemed better in the pen, Urias is no garuantee, Ryu I have no idea about, guessing he just isn’t that good anymore. If they could somehow sign DArvish wout going over the luxury tax I’m sure they’d strongly consider it. But yea ur prob right LA seems to be out on DArvish, LA just always makes me nervous w FAs lol.

I don't think even if they had the room the would sign him to be honest. Hill and Kershaw were about as strong a 1/2 punch as you get and sure Hill is old but Urias was expected to be the next great young starter. He's still only 21. A lot of very very good starters don't even hit the majors until 22-23. For example, Walker Buehler who's also with the dodgers is 23 and hasn't seen the majors yet. Michael Kopech is 21 and hasn't seen the majors. Alex Reyes is 23 and only had a minor taste at the end of 2016. Mitch Keller is 21 and finished in AA.

Regardless, in my estimation, their future is Kershaw Urias and Buehler. If those 3 become what is expected they don't need Darvish. And if Wood is even just a #3 their rotation assuming those 2 young pitchers develop is rock solid. Spending $20-25 mil for a 31 year old starter when you have that to work with is just a bad investment. And more to the point, if they are going to go after someone, they could just as easily wait another year(no real rush with the number of arms they have) and go after Bumgarner.

 

[CSF77]

Because he refuses to take a walk

It is a point

I see it as OBA types top of the line up. Contact hitters lower.

It is all about OBA. If a hitter has a .400 OBA that means that he is a out 6 out of 10 PA’s. A .300 OBA is a out 7 out of 10 PA’s. That 1 out per 10 adds up after 600 PA’s.

Now Almora is a contact hitter. Honestly he is going to put the ball into play. Almost 70% of the time the ball is going to be made a play on. That high % pays off with base runners. After that you have to look at BABIP and match ups to see who gives the highest % of clean up RBI’s.

Who knows honestly here. Looking at raw Almora gets big hits. You need him behind good OBA and good base runners. That is what racks up RBI’s.

 

[CSF77]

I don't think even if they had the room the would sign him to be honest. Hill and Kershaw were about as strong a 1/2 punch as you get and sure Hill is old but Urias was expected to be the next great young starter. He's still only 21. A lot of very very good starters don't even hit the majors until 22-23. For example, Walker Buehler who's also with the dodgers is 23 and hasn't seen the majors yet. Michael Kopech is 21 and hasn't seen the majors. Alex Reyes is 23 and only had a minor taste at the end of 2016. Mitch Keller is 21 and finished in AA.

Regardless, in my estimation, their future is Kershaw Urias and Buehler. If those 3 become what is expected they don't need Darvish. And if Wood is even just a #3 their rotation assuming those 2 young pitchers develop is rock solid. Spending $20-25 mil for a 31 year old starter when you have that to work with is just a bad investment. And more to the point, if they are going to go after someone, they could just as easily wait another year(no real rush with the number of arms they have) and go after Bumgarner.

They are gearing up to retain Kershaw. He jumps they have to be able to go over again. Right now they will reset it back down to 20%. If they go over then they are forced into a 50% to retain 1 player

 

[jooo83]

You mean before the WS when he went four starts with three of them being two earned runs or less and seven K's wasn't proving he could pitch in the playoffs but in a series where he clearly was tipping pitches we should say "he can't pitch in the playoffs' because of some magic power that makes playoff baseball different than regular baseball?

I don't know wtf you are talking about when you refer to magic powers. But to completely deny that factors such as stress/anxiety/fatigue/nerves/environment have an impact on performance or focus is ridiculous.

 

[jooo83]

Pitchers pitch 32 games per year and maybe 5 if they go all the way to the series.

When you look at it from financials reg season > Play offs.

Now play offs are a factor for sure but it doesn’t flip a 1A and a 2. Outside of his record run he has been a league 2. Sure in the play offs he takes it up to a legit staff ace but this is not a rental situation. It is a 5+ year situation and you have to look at the term of the deal looking forward and miles on their arms and production in season. Then projected declines.

End of the day Boras is going to push 30 mil per and that is David Price type cash. There are only 3 SP making 30 mil plus and they have a better history going into their deals vs a guy at 32 who had a great run but outside of it looked like the 2 vs the ace.

His value is Comp to Q’s and Q is not a 30 mil arm. 22-25 per I can see that. Boras is shooting for a deal that any team will regret after the ink is dry. Ask Det about how they feel about Zimmerman.

Valid point. Are you concerned about Darvish's long term health?

 

[chibears55]

For 3 years now all we heard was how Epstein was going to use the young hitters depth to trade for controlled pitching and with this offseason being the biggest opportunity he had to do so, he so far still hasnt pulled the trigger on any deals...
Im beginning to think he afraid to trade any of them because he doesn't want to be wrong on who he uses to deal away

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[CSF77]

Valid point. Are you concerned about Darvish's long term health?

No. The problem is Theo is not willing to over pay. I’m pretty sure they have a value in mind of each F/A and that is where they go from

 

[Omeletpants]

Article indicating Schwarberr has lost 17 lbs and is still trying to pull pitches 6" off the plate....jk

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2017/12/17/kyle-schwarber-has-lost-17-20-pounds/

 

[TL1961]

Somebody got paid to write that?

It’s 40 words long and says nothing new.

 

[beckdawg]

For 3 years now all we heard was how Epstein was going to use the young hitters depth to trade for controlled pitching and with this offseason being the biggest opportunity he had to do so, he so far still hasnt pulled the trigger on any deals...
Im beginning to think he afraid to trade any of them because he doesn't want to be wrong on who he uses to deal away

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Not sure I'd characterize it like that. He did make the big trade with Q. The problem is more that the right trade rarely presents itself. For example, Shelby Miller. He was sorta connected to the cubs but clearly had they come close to matching what AZ did that would have been a mistake. Archer hasn't moved. Verlander wasn't the right fit really because of age. Gray was either Q or him and clearly they picked Q. Other than that am I missing anyone here? I suppose maybe Hamels but don't really think he was worth it.

 

[chibears55]

Not sure I'd characterize it like that. He did make the big trade with Q. The problem is more that the right trade rarely presents itself. For example, Shelby Miller. He was sorta connected to the cubs but clearly had they come close to matching what AZ did that would have been a mistake. Archer hasn't moved. Verlander wasn't the right fit really because of age. Gray was either Q or him and clearly they picked Q. Other than that am I missing anyone here? I suppose maybe Hamels but don't really think he was worth it.

Yes, you're missing any young controllable pitcher added to rotation via trade outside of Quintana for Jiminez..

This off season he has that opportunity to add that controlled starter with 2 openings in rotation, and so far he just signed a bottom end SP...

I get it takes two to tangle but we havent heard him dangling anyone...

Wondering if he just dont really want to move his guys or if other teams dont value them that high to move a TOR type controlled SP for




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