Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[brett05]

He may be more comfortable fitting into the Twin Cities’ noted Japanese community.

Couid be. Fun to wait. Will be a nice coop for the winning team.

 

[CSF77]

Cubs should be at 154 mil. A 15 bonus up front with year 1 at 15 mil (what Lester got) puts payroll at 184 mil which I believe is their comfort zone. 155 mil should be their offer. Age and numbers he is Comp to Lester. Both have come from teams that have heavy play off experience. Neither were legit ace starters so are not top tier paid pitchers.

Theo did say that a TOR should be sought every 3years. Lester was 3 years ago and this was in the game plan. I really don’t see them lowballing right now.

The only way I see this not happening is if the Twins out price his market value. He should sit at 155. If they go up to 180 then I don’t see the Cubs going to war.

 

[beckdawg]

So I'm curious what others feel happens after the cubs sign Darvish. I think it's fair to say that if the cubs want Darvish there's a pretty good shot they are going to get him. I don't see anyone out there that's really in a position to out bid them and he doesn't seem dead set on location. Realistically i can't see Darvish getting much more than $25 mil AAV and I've already laid out the case why he may get less. But for the sake of argument let's assume he gets $25 mil aav. The cubs would be some where around $180 mil. Probably can't do Davis at that point and stay under the luxury tax.

I think at that point you'd likely look to nail down a few low key trades. Something I was thinking about is Zobrist. I feel like if you could move him you may have the money to sign Davis. Zobrist is owed $16.5 mil next year. It's not absurd for the performance he likely can give you as a starter but given the role he's likely to play he's pretty over priced. The mets are a team that comes to mind as a team looking at 2B trades and a team that was connected on Zobrist when the cubs signed him. I don't know if something like Matt Harvey for Zobrist makes much sense. It would be nice to have someone behind Chatwood. And theoretically you could use the idea of a 6 man rotation with Monty and Harvey in the "bullpen." Think Harvey is supposed to make around $6 mil in the last year of arb. So you'd be saving around $10 mil that you could theoretically push toward davis. My only issue with trading Zobrist is he's a big character guy who Maddon loves and it would screw up your lead off situation even more. So, I'm kind of two minds about this idea.

Cubs also still need a back up catcher though you can likely find someone for $2-4 mil. If they don't end up with Davis you could also look to free some playing time via a trade.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

So I'm curious what others feel happens after the cubs sign Darvish. I think it's fair to say that if the cubs want Darvish there's a pretty good shot they are going to get him. I don't see anyone out there that's really in a position to out bid them and he doesn't seem dead set on location. Realistically i can't see Darvish getting much more than $25 mil AAV and I've already laid out the case why he may get less. But for the sake of argument let's assume he gets $25 mil aav. The cubs would be some where around $180 mil. Probably can't do Davis at that point and stay under the luxury tax.

I think at that point you'd likely look to nail down a few low key trades. Something I was thinking about is Zobrist. I feel like if you could move him you may have the money to sign Davis. Zobrist is owed $16.5 mil next year. It's not absurd for the performance he likely can give you as a starter but given the role he's likely to play he's pretty over priced. The mets are a team that comes to mind as a team looking at 2B trades and a team that was connected on Zobrist when the cubs signed him. I don't know if something like Matt Harvey for Zobrist makes much sense. It would be nice to have someone behind Chatwood. And theoretically you could use the idea of a 6 man rotation with Monty and Harvey in the "bullpen." Think Harvey is supposed to make around $6 mil in the last year of arb. So you'd be saving around $10 mil that you could theoretically push toward davis. My only issue with trading Zobrist is he's a big character guy who Maddon loves and it would screw up your lead off situation even more. So, I'm kind of two minds about this idea.

Cubs also still need a back up catcher though you can likely find someone for $2-4 mil. If they don't end up with Davis you could also look to free some playing time via a trade.

I'm not as confident in signing Darvish as you are and I also think that if they want the 4 year deal the AAV is going to be closer to $30 mil. Maybe if they signed him for 6 years you could get to $25-$27 mil AAV but it seems like years are the most important factor. Where I agree though that you can't sign Darvish and Davis if you plan on playing in t he mega-class of FA next year. As far as Zobrist he has a full no trade through this year and he was bad last year. I don't know why the Mets would be interested when there are so many 2B options, some better and cheaper.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm not as confident in signing Darvish as you are and I also think that if they want the 4 year deal the AAV is going to be closer to $30 mil. Maybe if they signed him for 6 years you could get to $25-$27 mil AAV but it seems like years are the most important factor. Where I agree though that you can't sign Darvish and Davis if you plan on playing in t he mega-class of FA next year. As far as Zobrist he has a full no trade through this year and he was bad last year. I don't know why the Mets would be interested when there are so many 2B options, some better and cheaper.

Couldn't remember if Zobrist had a NTC or not. As for darvish getting $30 mil I'd be shocked. The difference between him and Price is there were a ton of suitors for Price. And frankly I'm not sure any player is going to take 4 years at his age. It just doesn't set up well for him. I'm certain you'd take $22-24 mil AAV over 6 years rather than say $27 over 4 because on the worst case you're guaranteeing yourself $24 mil more even if theoretically you could get more at age 35 with a new team.

Regardless, I just don't see how the market is going to be that hot for him. As far as I know the only teams even being talked about in connection with him right now are minny and the cubs and minny isn't historically a team who spends for tier 1 FA. The fact they are involved strikes me more as a case of them seeing him as being a discount "ace" they can afford rather than someone they are going to throw $30 mil AAV at.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Couldn't remember if Zobrist had a NTC or not. As for darvish getting $30 mil I'd be shocked. The difference between him and Price is there were a ton of suitors for Price. And frankly I'm not sure any player is going to take 4 years at his age. It just doesn't set up well for him. I'm certain you'd take $22-24 mil AAV over 6 years rather than say $27 over 4 because on the worst case you're guaranteeing yourself $24 mil more even if theoretically you could get more at age 35 with a new team.

Regardless, I just don't see how the market is going to be that hot for him. As far as I know the only teams even being talked about in connection with him right now are minny and the cubs and minny isn't historically a team who spends for tier 1 FA. The fact they are involved strikes me more as a case of them seeing him as being a discount "ace" they can afford rather than someone they are going to throw $30 mil AAV at.

Philly is involved as well but seem to be waiting on Arrieta who they supposedly prefer. I mention the years because Darvish is looking for 5-6 years and the Cubs are supposedly offering 4. Maybe they settle on 5 but I can't see how 5/$125 gets that done. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[CSF77]

Like I said: their game plan has always been adding a TOR every 3 years. 6 year deals make the most sense.

Sure if you can self development that is the preferred choice and F/A is the last. But 6 years is ideal as it sets up a rotation of turn over every 3 years.

Jon Lester lhp
6 years/$155M (2015-20), plus 2021 option

6 years/$155M (2015-20), plus 2021 option
signed by Chicago Cubs as a free agent 12/14
$30M signing bonus ($15M due 4/15/15, $2.5M due 12/31/18, $2.5M due 12/31/19, $10M due 9/15/20)
15:$15M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M, 18:$22.5M, 19:$22.5M, 20:$15M, 21:$25M mutual option ($10M buyout)
2021 option guaranteed with 200 innings in 2020 or 400 IP in 2019-20)
full no-trade protection
perks: suite on road, private air travel up to 25 hours per year

Falls into their plan.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

OK, so my optimism on Darvish is growing. Theo and Jed are still in Dallas with a 2nd meeting scheduled this morning.

 

[beckdawg]

Philly is involved as well but seem to be waiting on Arrieta who they supposedly prefer. I mention the years because Darvish is looking for 5-6 years and the Cubs are supposedly offering 4. Maybe they settle on 5 but I can't see how 5/$125 gets that done. I hope I'm wrong.

I still think Cueto's deal is more likely. I think we can both agree that with the big name teams out on him that his market is at least some what depressed. Cueto got 6 years $125 mil guaranteed with a 7th year team option $5 mil buy out or $22 mil. Now I think you could argue maybe Darvish gets slightly more but if you look at what Cueto did from 2008-2015 he put up 22.6 fWAR in 8 seasons or roughly 2.8 wins a season. If you make this slightly more fair given Darvish didn't come over until age 25, from 25 through his final pre-FA year Cueto put up 17 fWAR in 5 seasons or 3.4 wins per. Darvish put up 19.0 over the past 5 years with a full year out due to injury or 3.8 wins per year. Darvish is going into FA a year older.

CSF77 keeps bringing up lester but i think that's not quite right. Lester from age 25 to FA was worth 24.4 wins over 6 seasons. 4.1 wins per season. And the big thign with lester was he had a MONSTER 2014 prior to signing with the cubs being worth 5.6 wins. Darvish has never been above 4.6.

So I think you could accurately say that some where between Cueto and Lester is fair in a normal market. In other words some where effectively between 6/$130($21.6 AAV) on Cueto and 6/$155 on Lester($25.8 AAV). But again, that's assuming a normal market where there is a ton of competition and I'm not really seeing that. I think he gets 6 years with a 7th year team option for roughly $23-24 mil. That's $138-$144 mil. Since teams tend to do round figures wouldn't surprise me if it was 6/$140.

 

[beckdawg]

Also for what it's worth, given where the cubs sit at luxury tax wise it is probably better for them to do a 6-7 year deal rather than a 4 year deal because the way they calculate luxury tax it's based on the AAV. For example, if you assume the cubs are fine with 4/$120, they'd be better off doing a few more years at relatively less money to spread out the pain of the luxury tax. From their perspective if you're fine with 4/$120 then you're getting 2 years at $20 mil for 6/$140 and instead of $30 mil AAV for luxury tax that's down to $23.3 mil AAV.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Also for what it's worth, given where the cubs sit at luxury tax wise it is probably better for them to do a 6-7 year deal rather than a 4 year deal because the way they calculate luxury tax it's based on the AAV. For example, if you assume the cubs are fine with 4/$120, they'd be better off doing a few more years at relatively less money to spread out the pain of the luxury tax. From their perspective if you're fine with 4/$120 then you're getting 2 years at $20 mil for 6/$140 and instead of $30 mil AAV for luxury tax that's down to $23.3 mil AAV.

I think the plan is to go over teh tax next year, so I don't know how much a concern it is. They seem to be focused on fewer years.

 

[beckdawg]

I think the plan is to go over teh tax next year, so I don't know how much a concern it is. They seem to be focused on fewer years.

If they do $30 mil AAV on Darivsh I'm pretty sure they go over this year tbqh unless they off load money some other way. I mean theoretically they are at around $155 mil right now IIRC so yes technically $30 mil on top of that is ~$12 mil under $197 mil but you have moves in season where you'll add $500k here and there to move guys on and off of the 40 man as well as the ~$13 mil in player benefits that also cost.

What I could see them doing is front load a deal so that they pay him $30 mil this year and maybe next year and push that 6/$140 down to 4/$80 while effectively keeping the luxury tax low. If they do that without including a full NTC then they could move him after the 4th year or they could give him an opt out there which they hope he takes.

 

[chibears55]

Cubs sign Darvish, i see their only needs are a closer and CFer/OFer..

I think their set on Caratini as back up catcher..

Catchers..
Caratini and Contreras

INFIELD..
Rizzo Baez Russell Bryant Lastella

Outfield..
Schwarber Almora Heyward
CF/OFer

Utility..
Zobrist Happ



SP..
Lester
Darvish
Quintana
Hendricks
Chatwood

Bullpen..
Montgomery
Strop
Morrow
Cishek
Edwards
Wilson
CLOSER


Depth..
Grimm
Alvarez
Maples
Butler
Mills
Rosario
Zastryzny





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[beckdawg]

I think their set on Caratini as back up catcher..

Don't think I agree with this. Firstly if they were going to do this why deal for avila and pick up rivera? Secondly you want depth at C because it's hard to find guys. In my eyes you want to pair Contreras with an aging vet a la ross who can't play every day but who offers you help with handling a staff. That then allows Caratini to be their third string guy in AAA or if they go nuts with 3 C you have him on the roster.

 

[chibears55]

Don't think I agree with this. Firstly if they were going to do this why deal for avila and pick up rivera? Secondly you want depth at C because it's hard to find guys. In my eyes you want to pair Contreras with an aging vet a la ross who can't play every day but who offers you help with handling a staff. That then allows Caratini to be their third string guy in AAA or if they go nuts with 3 C you have him on the roster.

They got Avila and Rivera because Willson got hurt and outside of Caratini they had noone else ..

Id love for them to bring Avila back, surprise they havent yet...
Guessing he waiting on a chance to start or something somewhere..

Just thinking their putting most of their money into pitching and may look inside to fill out the backup roles..
Pretty much staying as is with the position players






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[The-0]

This ^^
Flip Montgomery butler and hatch for a year of Britton and let’s close this thread before the online gm’s trade all of our proven major league talent for middle of the road starting pitching. Ha. I trust tseng in the long relief role and think he may even excel there.

 

[anotheridiot]

so Schwarber has lost weight, gotten lean and he is still not going to catch? There is your backup right there. I still say its something that would knock him out of this hitting funk he is in.

Lets not forget that Monty wants to have the opportunity to start, and has shown he can start, if he is not going to start, then I can see flipping him instead of having a disgruntled fill in guy.

 

[chibears55]

On Darvish and what he might be offered and all..

I agree with above about it being the years and not so much money...

Arrieta all about him wanting 6-7 yrs. at 25 to 30 per.
Epstein not going near that

Cobb may be looking at 5-6 yrs 20-25 per.. Epstein probably wants 3 or 4 with him tops..


Epstein not going more then 5 on a Pitcher and probably figured he has a shot at nabbing Darvish at 4 or 5 yrs at close to 25 .

Theo probably figured why not try for the better starter at 4 or 5 , eventhough he a year older then cobb, offer a little more money but get less years..





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[TC in Mississippi]

On Darvish and what he might be offered and all..

I agree with above about it being the years and not so much money...

Arrieta all about him wanting 6-7 yrs. at 25 to 30 per.
Epstein not going near that

Cobb may be looking at 5-6 yrs 20-25 per.. Epstein probably wants 3 or 4 with him tops..


Epstein not going more then 5 on a Pitcher and probably figured he has a shot at nabbing Darvish at 4 or 5 yrs at close to 25 .

Theo probably figured why not try for the better starter at 4 or 5 , eventhough he a year older then cobb, offer a little more money but get less years..





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You can't equate Cobb and Darvish. Cobb is a 4/5 type, Darvish is a 1/2 type. If they can get him to 4 years it's going to be at $30 mil AAV, maybe back loaded a bit to help stay under the cap in 2018. More likely it's 5 and he takes a little less per year say 5/$135

 

[TC in Mississippi]

They got Avila and Rivera because Willson got hurt and outside of Caratini they had noone else ..

Id love for them to bring Avila back, surprise they havent yet...
Guessing he waiting on a chance to start or something somewhere..

Just thinking their putting most of their money into pitching and may look inside to fill out the backup roles..
Pretty much staying as is with the position players






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Avila isn't looking to start but he'd like to play 70-80 games (I heard him interviewed on MLB Radio a couple of weeks ago), so he's not really a fit. I'd like them to sign Rivera myself but Caratini with a defensive catcher on the Iowa shuttle would work too.