Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[fatbeard]

On Darvish and what he might be offered and all..

I agree with above about it being the years and not so much money...

Arrieta all about him wanting 6-7 yrs. at 25 to 30 per.
Epstein not going near that

Cobb may be looking at 5-6 yrs 20-25 per.. Epstein probably wants 3 or 4 with him tops..


Epstein not going more then 5 on a Pitcher and probably figured he has a shot at nabbing Darvish at 4 or 5 yrs at close to 25 .

Theo probably figured why not try for the better starter at 4 or 5 , eventhough he a year older then cobb, offer a little more money but get less years..





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Sahadev Sharma reported the Cubs were willing to pay 4/60 for Cobb, but Cobb is looking for 4/80 or more. That's why they're re-focusing on Darvish. More expensive but more value per dollar than the over-inflated ask from Cobb.

 

[beckdawg]

I just don't get why Darvish would do a 4 year deal as some are suggesting. He'd be 35 at the end of it. Now sure I get why the cubs would like that. You're basically buying his prime-ish years with none of the down side that typically comes with this kind of big contract player. But at age 35 what's he realistically going to get? 3 years 45 mil? In order to even be worth his time I think you'd have to be well over $30 mil AAV on a 4 year deal because you're not offering any security to him in the deal. He could blow out his arm next year and lose $20-40 mil dollars. And I'm also guessing with a 4 year deal he's not getting a NTC nor an opt out.

If all he can really get is a 4 year deal I would imagine he'd rather just take a 1 year deal and reenter FA the following year when teams who are sitting out because of luxury tax issues will be back.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I just don't get why Darvish would do a 4 year deal as some are suggesting. He'd be 35 at the end of it. Now sure I get why the cubs would like that. You're basically buying his prime-ish years with none of the down side that typically comes with this kind of big contract player. But at age 35 what's he realistically going to get? 3 years 45 mil? In order to even be worth his time I think you'd have to be well over $30 mil AAV on a 4 year deal because you're not offering any security to him in the deal. He could blow out his arm next year and lose $20-40 mil dollars. And I'm also guessing with a 4 year deal he's not getting a NTC nor an opt out.

If all he can really get is a 4 year deal I would imagine he'd rather just take a 1 year deal and reenter FA the following year when teams who are sitting out because of luxury tax issues will be back.

I don't think either of these top pitchers would see a benefit to to a one year deal with next year's class topped by Kershaw and Keuchel. My gut still tells me they may have to go to 5 but they're pressing 4. We'll see.

 

[beckdawg]

I don't think either of these top pitchers would see a benefit to to a one year deal with next year's class topped by Kershaw and Keuchel. My gut still tells me they may have to go to 5 but they're pressing 4. We'll see.

You're presuming both enter FA. Kershaw almost certainly is going to try to do what Sabathia did which was use his opt out to reupp. And Keuchel may not even get that far. The Astros have every incentive to pay him. If those two are no longer around and Darvish has a great year that silences some of his WS issues from tipping pitches he could easily get paid.

 

[chibears55]

You can't equate Cobb and Darvish. Cobb is a 4/5 type, Darvish is a 1/2 type. If they can get him to 4 years it's going to be at $30 mil AAV, maybe back loaded a bit to help stay under the cap in 2018. More likely it's 5 and he takes a little less per year say 5/$135

That my point...

They have or had interest in Cobb..
Cobb probably looking for 5 or 6 yrs at 20 plus..
Epstein probably wants him at 3 tops

Theo probably saying ..
If im giving a guy 4 or 5 yrs, might as well offer it to a TOR type in Darvish.
Eventhough he a yr older and may cost a couple extra million more per

Get the better starter between the two if they can get the years they want

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[Diehardfan]

I just don't get why Darvish would do a 4 year deal as some are suggesting. He'd be 35 at the end of it. Now sure I get why the cubs would like that. You're basically buying his prime-ish years with none of the down side that typically comes with this kind of big contract player. But at age 35 what's he realistically going to get? 3 years 45 mil? In order to even be worth his time I think you'd have to be well over $30 mil AAV on a 4 year deal because you're not offering any security to him in the deal. He could blow out his arm next year and lose $20-40 mil dollars. And I'm also guessing with a 4 year deal he's not getting a NTC nor an opt out.

If all he can really get is a 4 year deal I would imagine he'd rather just take a 1 year deal and reenter FA the following year when teams who are sitting out because of luxury tax issues will be back.

Not everyone wants to play forever. We don't know him personally....maybe he has a plan to pitch to a certain age, then retire back to Japan. Money will never more be an obstacle for him....pitch four more years, take the money and run. The yearly 6 or 7 months of the baseball travel grind can take a toll on a person and his family.

 

[chibears55]

Sahadev Sharma reported the Cubs were willing to pay 4/60 for Cobb, but Cobb is looking for 4/80 or more. That's why they're re-focusing on Darvish. More expensive but more value per dollar than the over-inflated ask from Cobb.

Not arguing with you but seems kinda silly to pull the offer or move on from him for just an extra 5 mil per. if they really wanted him..

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[chibears55]

If all he can really get is a 4 year deal I would imagine he'd rather just take a 1 year deal and reenter FA the following year when teams who are sitting out because of luxury tax issues will be back.

Actually that would make some sense for both sides..

Cubs get a TOR type for this year and leave themselves open for next year crop..

Darvish get a year to up his value more and have a bunch more teams bidding on him next year..





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[CSF77]

I still think Cueto's deal is more likely. I think we can both agree that with the big name teams out on him that his market is at least some what depressed. Cueto got 6 years $125 mil guaranteed with a 7th year team option $5 mil buy out or $22 mil. Now I think you could argue maybe Darvish gets slightly more but if you look at what Cueto did from 2008-2015 he put up 22.6 fWAR in 8 seasons or roughly 2.8 wins a season. If you make this slightly more fair given Darvish didn't come over until age 25, from 25 through his final pre-FA year Cueto put up 17 fWAR in 5 seasons or 3.4 wins per. Darvish put up 19.0 over the past 5 years with a full year out due to injury or 3.8 wins per year. Darvish is going into FA a year older.

CSF77 keeps bringing up lester but i think that's not quite right. Lester from age 25 to FA was worth 24.4 wins over 6 seasons. 4.1 wins per season. And the big thign with lester was he had a MONSTER 2014 prior to signing with the cubs being worth 5.6 wins. Darvish has never been above 4.6.

So I think you could accurately say that some where between Cueto and Lester is fair in a normal market. In other words some where effectively between 6/$130($21.6 AAV) on Cueto and 6/$155 on Lester($25.8 AAV). But again, that's assuming a normal market where there is a ton of competition and I'm not really seeing that. I think he gets 6 years with a 7th year team option for roughly $23-24 mil. That's $138-$144 mil. Since teams tend to do round figures wouldn't surprise me if it was 6/$140.

Not really on WAR going into the deal vs the current market. SP is repressed and Yu is the top arm. That said Cueto is a strong Comp. And that would be the starting point. But is you are not willing to go up to Lester’s contract then you shouldn’t be in that room with him.

I feel that he is worth 6/155. That is it and I would front load 30 mil year 1 to decrease the back end AAV. By then the cheap hitting is not cheap and you need cost relief.

On Cartiani and the other catchers. Sense of urgency. They were in the thick of a race and didn’t feel good about a rookie handling the staff. Year before they eased him under 2 vets. This year was a firing and as we saw catchers can get injured. They were reactionary signings.

Going into the year urgency is down and they have all of S/T to sync Cartrini and the staff. That should make a huge difference.

If was a LF issue then I doubt they do those deals. Just saying.

On Schwarber: 3 string guy. He needs to focus on LF and hitting. The whole catching thing is a distraction to what he needs to focus on. In a emergency sure. End of the day: if they felt he was a catcher then he would be catching and not in LF

 

[TC in Mississippi]

You're presuming both enter FA. Kershaw almost certainly is going to try to do what Sabathia did which was use his opt out to reupp. And Keuchel may not even get that far. The Astros have every incentive to pay him. If those two are no longer around and Darvish has a great year that silences some of his WS issues from tipping pitches he could easily get paid.

If those two don't go to FA they're idiots, and I don't think Kershaw and Keuchel are idiots. They're also going to get a huge kick in the pants from the MLBPA to make sure they do so and increase the AAV for starting pitchers going forward, especially after this year when the market is so sluggish on starting pitching and owners still remember that Boston got burned on David Price. You're talking about guys who will get $250 mil plus. Maybe Kershaw signs preemptively with LA but it will have to be an overpay.

edit: Keuchel hired Scott Boras to represent him two weeks ago. He's not signing before he reaches the market.

 

[beckdawg]

If those two don't go to FA they're idiots, and I don't think Kershaw and Keuchel are idiots. They're also going to get a huge kick in the pants from the MLBPA to make sure they do so and increase the AAV for starting pitchers going forward, especially after this year when the market is so sluggish on starting pitching and owners still remember that Boston got burned on David Price. You're talking about guys who will get $250 mil plus. Maybe Kershaw signs preemptively with LA but it will have to be an overpay.

edit: Keuchel hired Scott Boras to represent him two weeks ago. He's not signing before he reaches the market.

I mean why would they be "idiots?" If Kershaw opts out and quickly re-signs with the dodgers he effectively extends his deal as though he were a FA. I see no real reason why he needs to go to market to prop up the dodgers paying him. He's the best pitcher in baseball. They will give him what he wants.

As for Keuchel, Boras also represented Strasburg who by your definition here would be an idiot to re-sign with the nationals but he did. I'm not saying he takes a super team friendly deal or anything but in both cases those teams have ample reason to re-sign their players. Both are legit WS contenders who need those players. Both would be "idiots" not to offer them the money they want. For example, how much of an "idiot" is Boston for not just paying Lester? Since they let him walk(well sorta traded him then let the A's him walk) he's put up 12.0 fWAR in 3 seasons with 3.33/3.45 ERA/FIP and a 43-25 record.

Maybe Kershaw/Keuchel don't like the respective cities they are in which case sure go to FA but my point is often these players have set up a life in these cities and want to keep that stability. If their team offers them fair value players often will take it before they hit FA.

 

[anotheridiot]

On Schwarber: 3 string guy. He needs to focus on LF and hitting. The whole catching thing is a distraction to what he needs to focus on. In a emergency sure. End of the day: if they felt he was a catcher then he would be catching and not in LF

How is that working so far?

 

[CSF77]

An idiot would hold onto payroll for a year and watch all potential deals get locked up by extensions.

A idiot would pass on a no strings attached F/A like Yu is. How many time has pitchers of his quality going into F/A with no Comp pick attached? Cueto was the last. But these guys are rare.

Right now the Cubs are at Lester/Q/Hendricjs/Chatwood/Montgomery

How many here feel good going against WAS or LAD with that rotation?

How about saving a few mil but giving up a pick for Cobb? Honestly all you are doing is making it a choice between him and Chatwood. Either could be the 4.

Jake? Well losing a Comp pick(your’s for letting him walk)and giving 6 years to a 32 YO? Add to it he will be over priced.

Trading? Well if it was Happ and 2 SP prospects for Archer or Stroman. But I believe the seller will over price again.

I’m under the opinion to set up the rotation first then let the season play out. Save your chips for the dead line. If you need to rent a BP arm let the season dictate that need. But going into it you are going to have to put out a rotation that is on par with other contenders. The smartest way is to meet Yu’s demands then build up inseason trade weight for rentals.

 

[CSF77]

How is that working so far?

What part?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I mean why would they be "idiots?" If Kershaw opts out and quickly re-signs with the dodgers he effectively extends his deal as though he were a FA. I see no real reason why he needs to go to market to prop up the dodgers paying him. He's the best pitcher in baseball. They will give him what he wants.

As for Keuchel, Boras also represented Strasburg who by your definition here would be an idiot to re-sign with the nationals but he did. I'm not saying he takes a super team friendly deal or anything but in both cases those teams have ample reason to re-sign their players. Both are legit WS contenders who need those players. Both would be "idiots" not to offer them the money they want. For example, how much of an "idiot" is Boston for not just paying Lester? Since they let him walk(well sorta traded him then let the A's him walk) he's put up 12.0 fWAR in 3 seasons with 3.33/3.45 ERA/FIP and a 43-25 record.

Maybe Kershaw/Keuchel don't like the respective cities they are in which case sure go to FA but my point is often these players have set up a life in these cities and want to keep that stability. If their team offers them fair value players often will take it before they hit FA.

I'm not saying you don't sign with your teams if that's what you want, but I'd hit the market first. Say LA is all set to give Kershaw 7/$250 mil but Philadelphia comes in and offers him $280mil. He can probably got to LA and say "I'm ready to sign $270 mil please" and they pay up so he gets the best of both worlds. Let the market set your price, if you're dealing with LA you still go where you want. Keuchel is a different case, the Astros can't afford his max value so I don't think he signs there.

Strasburg was a whole different thing. He was an oft injured pitcher who managed to get within about 10% of market value with two opt outs and didn't have to go through the process. Also he was set to become a FA last year when most of the big market teams were known to be sitting the season out, at least for the most part. The Yankees signed Chapman but didn't sign starting pitching and neither the Cubs or Dodgers were inking anybody to $200 mil deals so there was a chance, much like this year, that he wouldn't even get what he asking for and don't think Boras didn't know that.

All that said you never know what's going to happen. Kershaw could be injured again and not opt out instead agreeing to a more modest extension. Keuchel could also could also have a down year. My point was that if I'm Darvish or Arrieta I'm not risking that especially at their ages. Instead I'm holding on to my dollar figure in my head and holding out and until someone offers me something close enough to it to make the rest of the process no longer worth it.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm not saying you don't sign with your teams if that's what you want, but I'd hit the market first. Say LA is all set to give Kershaw 7/$250 mil but Philadelphia comes in and offers him $280mil. He can probably got to LA and say "I'm ready to sign $270 mil please" and they pay up so he gets the best of both worlds. Let the market set your price, if you're dealing with LA you still go where you want. Keuchel is a different case, the Astros can't afford his max value so I don't think he signs there.

Strasburg was a whole different thing. He was an oft injured pitcher who managed to get within about 10% of market value with two opt outs and didn't have to go through the process. Also he was set to become a FA last year when most of the big market teams were known to be sitting the season out, at least for the most part. The Yankees signed Chapman but didn't sign starting pitching and neither the Cubs or Dodgers were inking anybody to $200 mil deals so there was a chance, much like this year, that he wouldn't even get what he asking for and don't think Boras didn't know that.

All that said you never know what's going to happen. Kershaw could be injured again and not opt out instead agreeing to a more modest extension. Keuchel could also could also have a down year. My point was that if I'm Darvish or Arrieta I'm not risking that especially at their ages. Instead I'm holding on to my dollar figure in my head and holding out and until someone offers me something close enough to it to make the rest of the process no longer worth it.

I mean I guess my point is Darvish shouldn't make his decisions based on what others may or may not do. He certainly has a year/price in mind. Now sure you're not always going to get that but if he wants 6 years and no one is offering more than 4 that's stupid. You don't take 4 because two good pitchers may be available next year. I could perhaps see the argument for taking less annually to get a deal done but him signing for 4 years makes almost no sense from his perspective because at 35 he's not going to be able to get a good deal for himself. He'd be far better off taking some absurdly low(based on numbers we're talking here) 6 year deal with an opt out or escalators.

That's really my only point. Him signing for 4 years does him 0 favors. There's numerous ways to work a longer deal in his favor even if it takes him accepting less annual money.

 

[CSF77]

I'm not saying you don't sign with your teams if that's what you want, but I'd hit the market first. Say LA is all set to give Kershaw 7/$250 mil but Philadelphia comes in and offers him $280mil. He can probably got to LA and say "I'm ready to sign $270 mil please" and they pay up so he gets the best of both worlds. Let the market set your price, if you're dealing with LA you still go where you want. Keuchel is a different case, the Astros can't afford his max value so I don't think he signs there.

Strasburg was a whole different thing. He was an oft injured pitcher who managed to get within about 10% of market value with two opt outs and didn't have to go through the process. Also he was set to become a FA last year when most of the big market teams were known to be sitting the season out, at least for the most part. The Yankees signed Chapman but didn't sign starting pitching and neither the Cubs or Dodgers were inking anybody to $200 mil deals so there was a chance, much like this year, that he wouldn't even get what he asking for and don't think Boras didn't know that.

All that said you never know what's going to happen. Kershaw could be injured again and not opt out instead agreeing to a more modest extension. Keuchel could also could also have a down year. My point was that if I'm Darvish or Arrieta I'm not risking that especially at their ages. Instead I'm holding on to my dollar figure in my head and holding out and until someone offers me something close enough to it to make the rest of the process no longer worth it.

The Philadelphia scenario doesn’t work. Kershaw is on a team built to win now and he is at the peak of his career. He has not won it all. A guy like him has to think that his time is short and age is working against him.

Philadelphia would have to prove that they are compatible to WAS before Shaw would sign.

We saw that here with the he whole E-Jax Situation. He was a panic move after failing to lure Sanchez.

The reality is if you suck it don’t matter if you have the most cash to toss. A smart team builds the core first then uses it to lure F/A’s. Honestly Lester was not a 100% thing at all. Even with him it took Jake’s cy-young and KB putting up ROY stats to make that turn around.

Honestly I believe it was signing Joe that pushed the lever. Guys want to play for him.

So Philli? I honestly don’t think they will be players with WAS in division. They are better off building a staff around Nola first then signing guys when they meet success.

Cash lure is a fiction. Most of these guys look at opertunites for success vs cash in the bank. These guys are going to get paid regardless and 150 to 180 mil is still 150 to 180 mil. The fact that they are up to that dollar amount most guys are content with. Squabbling over 5 mil per year becomes superficial.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The Philadelphia scenario doesn’t work. Kershaw is on a team built to win now and he is at the peak of his career. He has not won it all. A guy like him has to think that his time is short and age is working against him.

Philadelphia would have to prove that they are compatible to WAS before Shaw would sign.

We saw that here with the he whole E-Jax Situation. He was a panic move after failing to lure Sanchez.

The reality is if you suck it don’t matter if you have the most cash to toss. A smart team builds the core first then uses it to lure F/A’s. Honestly Lester was not a 100% thing at all. Even with him it took Jake’s cy-young and KB putting up ROY stats to make that turn around.

Honestly I believe it was signing Joe that pushed the lever. Guys want to play for him.

So Philli? I honestly don’t think they will be players with WAS in division. They are better off building a staff around Nola first then signing guys when they meet success.

Cash lure is a fiction. Most of these guys look at opertunites for success vs cash in the bank. These guys are going to get paid regardless and 150 to 180 mil is still 150 to 180 mil. The fact that they are up to that dollar amount most guys are content with. Squabbling over 5 mil per year becomes superficial.

Philly is better than you think. If they add a pitcher this year I think they come in second in the NL East. They certainly finish at or over .500 and are a major player in FA next year.

 

[beckdawg]

Philly is better than you think. If they add a pitcher this year I think they come in second in the NL East. They certainly finish at or over .500 and are a major player in FA next year.

Are they though? Their best player last year was Cesar Hernandez. Their best hitter last year with min 100 pas was Tommy Joseph with a 112 wRC+. Their pitching could be decent but they strike me as a team that doesn't have any impact players and who are really just building off of better than average depth. I think you could argue they are a team with a few pieces who could contend for a division but I don't see any realistic chance they are contending for a world series without buying their stars. I mean people will crap on Schwarber because of the ridiculous amount of talent the cubs have but his career 112 wRC+ would have tied Joseph for the best hitter on Philly's team.

I don't to me they aren't that interesting of a team. Even their prospects while good I'm not sure there's a stand out star there. You would think Mickey Moniak being the #1 pick would be that as a CF but he hit .236/.284/.341 in A ball for a guy who's supposed to have a good hit tool and not much power.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Are they though? Their best player last year was Cesar Hernandez. Their best hitter last year with min 100 pas was Tommy Joseph with a 112 wRC+. Their pitching could be decent but they strike me as a team that doesn't have any impact players and who are really just building off of better than average depth. I think you could argue they are a team with a few pieces who could contend for a division but I don't see any realistic chance they are contending for a world series without buying their stars. I mean people will crap on Schwarber because of the ridiculous amount of talent the cubs have but his career 112 wRC+ would have tied Joseph for the best hitter on Philly's team.

I don't to me they aren't that interesting of a team. Even their prospects while good I'm not sure there's a stand out star there. You would think Mickey Moniak being the #1 pick would be that as a CF but he hit .236/.284/.341 in A ball for a guy who's supposed to have a good hit tool and not much power.

I 've been following their rebuild pretty closely. I love Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Jorge Alfaro and I think J.P. Crawford is going to be a solid player. They just signed Carlos Santana which will give the lineup stability and they aren't close to done. They're in on Arrieta but I think he ends up in Washington or Milwaukee but they have enough to trade for a TOR starter. It wouldn't shock me to see Archer land there, there have already been talks with TB although it could be for Odorizzi in the end. They also have oodles of cash. I also think Gabe Kapler is going to be one hell of a manager. It would a lot of luck for them to be a playoff team this year but things happen. I like their team better than the Mets for sure. Are they in the WC hunt with the likes of Arizona, Milwaukee, Colorado or the loser of St. Louis/Cubs? Probably not, but you never know.

Oh, also Moniak played hurt all last year so this year is going to tell more about him.