Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[DanTown]

For nearly two decades, MLB teams stupidly operated under the guise that they had to offer a contract to a player that he had to sign and now that all of those contracts have basically been shown to been overpays AND their is a strong financial incentive to not overspend, the Cubs aren't going to simply sign a guy to sign him. Forever you had to spend an extra 10-20% (or more) to really get the guy you wanted for fear other teams could simply swoop in but the Cubs and the rest of MLB basically are operating where they know exactly what the other teams can and will offer due to the tax and the number of other teams.

 

[chibears55]

For nearly two decades, MLB teams stupidly operated under the guise that they had to offer a contract to a player that he had to sign and now that all of those contracts have basically been shown to been overpays AND their is a strong financial incentive to not overspend, the Cubs aren't going to simply sign a guy to sign him. Forever you had to spend an extra 10-20% (or more) to really get the guy you wanted for fear other teams could simply swoop in but the Cubs and the rest of MLB basically are operating where they know exactly what the other teams can and will offer due to the tax and the number of other teams.

True.. im not saying any team should automatically overpay someone but when a player fits a need and there a limited number of that type of player available (in this case 2 TOR type SP via FA), sometimes you just need to stretch it a bit otherwise you risk not getting that player and end up with someone that may not get it done and risk the season on it...



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[fatbeard]

For nearly two decades, MLB teams stupidly operated under the guise that they had to offer a contract to a player that he had to sign and now that all of those contracts have basically been shown to been overpays AND their is a strong financial incentive to not overspend, the Cubs aren't going to simply sign a guy to sign him. Forever you had to spend an extra 10-20% (or more) to really get the guy you wanted for fear other teams could simply swoop in but the Cubs and the rest of MLB basically are operating where they know exactly what the other teams can and will offer due to the tax and the number of other teams.

It's not just financial discipline, it's a confluence of factors. Almost all the big-spending teams are up against major luxury tax penalties now, so they can't put more money into the market. There is also, as you mentioned, a better awareness league-wide about the real value of players and so teams are more disciplined in what they're willing to spend. Boras' shtick, which has always been to play to the owners and make them put pressure on GMs to do dumb things, just isn't working. And finally, this is a tremendously mediocre crop of FAs, so no one's really willing to break the bank or even put up that extra 10% or 20%. Wait until next year though, and you're going to see some stupid cash getting thrown around at Harper, Machado, etc.

 

[TL1961]

So, what I have learned from Chibears’ posts is: Unless Theo publicly tells us what he is working on, he isn't working.

OK, that makes sense.

 

[anotheridiot]

So, what I have learned from Chibears’ posts is: Unless Theo publicly tells us what he is working on, he isn't working.

OK, that makes sense.

well, there are also posts from members that make it seem like he is sculpting these players with clay with building this team too and give him far too much credit.

 

[chibears55]

So, what I have learned from Chibears’ posts is: Unless Theo publicly tells us what he is working on, he isn't working.

OK, that makes sense.

Who said he wasnt working or that he had to come out and say what he doing?

I said effort...
Seems like there really not a lot of effort being put in to get those guys ..
Darvish Arrieta and Cobb


Outside of the meeting with Darvish and supposed initial offers made to all 3, we havent heard anything on the cubs...

The last and pretty much only thing we heard was Epstein saying that if they dont land someone their good with what they have...

Were talking about the top 3 SP in FA and a top team in baseball pursuing them and were already in mid January so that in itself gives it more attention because the baseball world waiting for something to happen ..
With the media craze and the way these guys need to be first to report things and all, plus their "inside sources"... not to much is gonna go without being mentioned, especially from agents who wants to get stuff leaked out so other teams know..


They could still land Darvish but right now it looking like the yankees have the better offer on table...

Cubs made their offer a month ago which word was 4 yrs...

They waited out a meeting with Twins and looks as if nothing happening there..

Now yankees come in with a 5/100 offer which is supposedly a bit better then cubs..

So now it cubs turn to counter..............

All that we heard since the yankees offer was Epstein saying that if they dont land someone their good with what they have....

So we wait... is he gonna make an Effort with a counter or stick to initial offer

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[CSF77]

I’m trying to figure if they offered Jake 4/110 and then offered less to Yu who is a better pitcher? Something feels off here.

 

[CSF77]

How I feel is if the Cubs had a SP prospect on either LH or the RH top 10 list then I would be fine using Montgomery as a place holder. No need to lock up 5 rotation spots until 2022 when you have a promising talent rising.

But they don’t. The best arm IMO is Albertos and he should be at SB and he is young enough to keep him at 1 level per year. So his ETA Would be 2022 anyways. When most current contracts end. From now to then they can focus on developing the next rotation.

So I am not confident with the current rotation. They can afford to go 5 years with Yu. 5/125 should be their floor honestly. That puts them at 2022 F/A. Even going 6 can be argued to be able to transition the new rotation in easier vs a major turnover at the same time.


It is a good baseball decision to sign Yu for 5-6 years. Why they are being stingy on the years part is baffling.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

Since we are still in a frozen FA lake, here are my predictions as to how the oft-discussed three pitchers will sort out:

Darvish -- Cubs will sign Yu, sometime in the next two weeks. He will be the first pin to fall. For $110 to $120 over 4 years, with a fifth option year.

Arrieta -- Jake will sign with the Yankees, a deal nearly tbe same as what Darvish accepts, but Boras will try, via his own public statements, to hold Jake out for the season. Jake will fire Boras over it and take the Yankee offer after spring training starts.

Cobb -- for the unexpected signing, Cobb will sign with tbe Dodgers. After Darvish but before Arrieta. On a two-year deal that's a good deal less than the Cub offer from three or so weeks ago, maybe $30 million for the two years.

And the catch? Cobb will have by far the best season. Jake, another tick off his fastball, will give up a record number of homers in a year for his career, and Darvish will have a very good year, very much a TOR type, just not the peak year Cobb will have. Won't help LA, after Hill and Kershaw spend a couple of months each on tbe DL.

Arrieta will get shopped around a year from now, with no one wanting to pick up his contract, and the Yanks will thus find themselves locked out of the much better FA market next year.

That's my gut feel on it. The best thing that will come out of it will be one of Boras' high-end clients firing him, beginning the end of general acceptance of overpricing of the top of any given FA crop.

 

[chibears55]

I’m trying to figure if they offered Jake 4/110 and then offered less to Yu who is a better pitcher? Something feels off here.

We dont know if they made an actual offer to him (Arrieta)...
All we heard was that they supposedly have a 3 or 4 yr offer on table for him, no money mentioned..

Cubs offer to Cobb was 3/42 which he rejected... nothing new with that

Havent seen any numbers on Darvish from cubs side except that they supposedly have a 4 yr offer on table which is supposed to be close to the 5/100 yankees offered..

Just feels like the cubs lack that sense of urgency to get something done with Darvish or Arrieta....
Way too quiet on both ends

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[CSF77]

Fact they signed Chatwood signals they are looking for bargains vs putting up a contender.

Let’s call it for what it is. They bargained for the 5 vs signed Cobb for it. Then they low balled Cobb. After that they paid market for Morrow and put him into a cost efficient role vs a set up roll. Then they signed both Duesing and Cishek cheap.

They say they are not on a budget but actions speak louder than words.

 

[chibears55]

Fact they signed Chatwood signals they are looking for bargains vs putting up a contender.

Let’s call it for what it is. They bargained for the 5 vs signed Cobb for it. Then they low balled Cobb. After that they paid market for Morrow and put him into a cost efficient role vs a set up roll. Then they signed both Duesing and Cishek cheap.

They say they are not on a budget but actions speak louder than words.

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[anotheridiot]

We dont know if they made an actual offer to him (Arrieta)...
All we heard was that they supposedly have a 3 or 4 yr offer on table for him, no money mentioned..

Cubs offer to Cobb was 3/42 which he rejected... nothing new with that

Havent seen any numbers on Darvish from cubs side except that they supposedly have a 4 yr offer on table which is supposed to be close to the 5/100 yankees offered..

Just feels like the cubs lack that sense of urgency to get something done with Darvish or Arrieta....
Way too quiet on both ends

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The report I heard on CSN was 4 years 110. Nothing like the 162 Bore-ass suggested.

 

[chibears55]

The report I heard on CSN was 4 years 110. Nothing like the 162 Bore-ass suggested.

4/110 from the cubs for Darvish?

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[beckdawg]

They say they are not on a budget but actions speak louder than words.

Paying someone what you think they are worth doesn't mean you're on a budget. It just means you're not desperate to overpay someone.

 

[CSF77]

Paying someone what you think they are worth doesn't mean you're on a budget. It just means you're not desperate to overpay someone.

Is this team as good on paper as the last 2 years?

 

[beckdawg]

Is this team as good on paper as the last 2 years?

Does paying someone more than you think they are worth make them better than the team the last 2 years? I mean look i've been saying since the outset that Darvish was the guy I wanted them to sign. So, it's not as though I'm opposed to the idea of them signing a starter. But what i really get tired of is people complaining that nothing is getting done. Arrieta and Darvish haven't signed with ANYONE. it's not just the cubs.

Ask yourself this, how often has this front office come up second on someone they've targeted? I suppose you could argue on Darvish the first time and Ohtani but they've more often than not landed the guys they targeted. So, it's not as though they are a team that shows faux interest in someone and comes up short to tell fans "well we tried."

 

[CSF77]

Jake-Q push
Rondon 16 - Morrow push less than Davis
Chatwood-Lackey push for now
Montgomery<Hammel. Push in 17
Cichek is the only upgrade to Urahara. That deal I’m fine with.

Now the reality I’m seeing is 2016 the O was bursting more. The staff was all having plus years at the same time. The team was in sync and they ran the league. 2017 was more of a typical year where guys have ups and downs. The team got hot after gaining Q but this team is inferior to that team was at that point. It is more in tune with the 1st half team.

A lot is going to be on production but on pure talent it is pretty close to 2017’s 1st half team.

Add Yu it looks more like the 2nd half team.

 

[CSF77]

Does paying someone more than you think they are worth make them better than the team the last 2 years? I mean look i've been saying since the outset that Darvish was the guy I wanted them to sign. So, it's not as though I'm opposed to the idea of them signing a starter. But what i really get tired of is people complaining that nothing is getting done. Arrieta and Darvish haven't signed with ANYONE. it's not just the cubs.

Ask yourself this, how often has this front office come up second on someone they've targeted? I suppose you could argue on Darvish the first time and Ohtani but they've more often than not landed the guys they targeted. So, it's not as though they are a team that shows faux interest in someone and comes up short to tell fans "well we tried."

Look I would get it if he is demanding 30 mil per year for 8 years. Telling him to go back to Japan at that point would not be a wrong answer.

But if the best offer is 5/100 from the Yanks that is a insult to a ace level pitcher.

It really feels like the owners are up to shanagans.

 

[beckdawg]

Look I would get it if he is demanding 30 mil per year for 8 years. Telling him to go back to Japan at that point would not be a wrong answer.

But if the best offer is 5/100 from the Yanks that is a insult to a ace level pitcher.

It really feels like the owners are up to shanagans.

You're entirely speculating that is the hang up. Don't do that. Fact of the matter is that if a player isn't signing with anyone then their expectations are too high. You can say it's owner shananagans but that's the reality of the market. Was it FO shananagans when teams stopped paying for batting average and instead paid OBP? No. it's what the market dictated.

Regardless, bitching because the cubs haven't done anything isn't really going to change anything. He'll eventually settle on an offer. My guess is when he gets serious about doing a deal the cubs will be a competitive offer because they always have been under theo. Until then people need to relax. Shit will happen when it happens.