Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[Omeletpants]

As a professional negotiator, I think most of you would starve if you had to negotiate for a living. First lesson in negotiating is to learn to hold your water.

 

[CSF77]

As a professional negotiator, I think most of you would starve if you had to negotiate for a living. First lesson in negotiating is to learn to hold your water.

Pretty sure the first thing is to find the parameters of the deal. Market value. Max offer/min offer. Then looking at the competition.

I’ve seen it in Construction. Outfits bid under all of the time to get the contract then bring in unskilled at under wage while asking for more funds to continue or just flat cut corners and break code.

To me the best method is to be honest because it carries a president. Players will look at a team’s trend. And won’t do business if the trend is frugal.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

Jake-Q push
Rondon 16 - Morrow push less than Davis
Chatwood-Lackey push for now
Montgomery<Hammel. Push in 17
Cichek is the only upgrade to Urahara. That deal I’m fine with.

Now the reality I’m seeing is 2016 the O was bursting more. The staff was all having plus years at the same time. The team was in sync and they ran the league. 2017 was more of a typical year where guys have ups and downs. The team got hot after gaining Q but this team is inferior to that team was at that point. It is more in tune with the 1st half team.

A lot is going to be on production but on pure talent it is pretty close to 2017’s 1st half team.

Add Yu it looks more like the 2nd half team.

Exactly my thinking. And if Morrow or committee isn't working, it will (as has been demonstrated) be easier to buy or rent a closer mid-season than buying or renting a starter. Not less expensive, in terms of what you need to give up, but easier. Anyone with a legit TOR guy to trade is gonna want too much or won't be willing to let you have him, especially if he has a few years left on his contract. Closers are easier, because a team that is not going to compete will more likely have a good (but underused) closer than a guy who can be a TOR starter on the Cubs' staff.

If you're gonna depend on a July trade for a pitcher, as we saw in the contrast between '16 and '17, it's better to start the season with the rotation that can carry you to the post-season and trade for relief mid-year than vice-versa...

 

[chibears55]

https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/954492078964305920

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[RacerX]

As a professional negotiator, I think most of you would starve if you had to negotiate for a living. First lesson in negotiating is to learn to hold your water.

As previously stated, as a retired insurance claims agent you cannot take negotiating settlement claims for auto accidents.

Shocker that you admire our great deal-making POTUS.

Both shit for brains.

 

[Omeletpants]

As previously stated, as a retired insurance claims agent you cannot take negotiating settlement claims for auto accidents.

Shocker that you admire our great deal-making POTUS.

Both shit for brains.

You can do better

 

[CSF77]

Exactly my thinking. And if Morrow or committee isn't working, it will (as has been demonstrated) be easier to buy or rent a closer mid-season than buying or renting a starter. Not less expensive, in terms of what you need to give up, but easier. Anyone with a legit TOR guy to trade is gonna want too much or won't be willing to let you have him, especially if he has a few years left on his contract. Closers are easier, because a team that is not going to compete will more likely have a good (but underused) closer than a guy who can be a TOR starter on the Cubs' staff.

If you're gonna depend on a July trade for a pitcher, as we saw in the contrast between '16 and '17, it's better to start the season with the rotation that can carry you to the post-season and trade for relief mid-year than vice-versa...

I’m accually fine with the pen honestly. They added Morrow and Cishek and resigned Duesing. That is basically replacing Davis/Urahara and retaining Duesing. It is kinda a wash over all. Wilson was added already and Edwards should be fine.

So I see it as Morrow in the 9th in general. Then they have Duesing/Wilson/Edwards/Cishek/Strop being the main guys filling the 6th to the 8th inning.
Grimm was given Arb and honestly I see him on the bubble. A solid spring by Maples bumps him off.

O wise it hinges on Schwarber. More of last year and it makes for a long year. If he pushes .300/.400/.560 then this line up becomes a terrorizing sight. Thing is he has that potential talent. Add in Almora trying to prove that he is every day. He has been training at Slone park all winter. He might just take CF every day.

I see the glaring weakness as the BOR. I can hope that both Chatwood and Montgomery become strong links on this team but neither have proven that they are anything more than the weakest starter on their staff or not good enough.

I don’t want to get to the point that they settle on Cobb be he is a Maddon guy and he came in at their budget target. What they need is a righty that can slot between Lester and Q. And not a guy that floats at 87 MPH. Hendricks is not a #2. Damn good 4 but not a 2.

On Jake. His loss of velocity scares me. Pitchers never regain lost MPH. they adapt to survive. But most drop to MOR in that process. It is not like he was a 98 guy that fell to 94 and he went with moving his fastball around with 2/4/cut/sinker mixes. No he was 94 and now he is 91 and has to go heavier on his curve and hiding his release.

Yu is the right choice here. He just costs payroll. They don’t have to gut the farm any more or sell off the roster. I never was a huge fan of selling off the work they did over the last few years. If it was 1 for 1 I would be ok with it. Even Alozay and Happ for a proven arm. Seeing how Happ is a luxury I would be fine. But seeing how they have not gone there tells me that that price tag is astronomical in talent. Talent that they can not afford to spend.

That is why I feel the way that I do right now. I believe 6/150 should be his market right now. If you look at his peers it is not outrageous at all. It doesn’t put the Cubs over the tax. That deal puts them at 180 which is 17 mil under. Add to it it locks the rotation up in a time where they have no sure things upwelling and the don’t need to sell off the core to sustain.

It makes sense to do it and it still is baffling why they have not made a offer like that to him.

 

[RacerX]

You can do better

Not my best, I concur, will try harder next time. Peace.

 

[chibears55]

Supposedly the Yankees dropped out of the Darvish race...

The Yankees do not look as if they are going to be in play for top free-agent starter Yu Darvish, according to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe.


Now it Rangers Dodgers Twins Cubs

I still think Rangers is where he wants to go, waiting on a decent offer..



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[beckdawg]

The rangers Gm has already said they are probably done. LAD have issues with luxury tax because not only are they already close but Maeda may get bonuses that could screw up their money situation and there's no way to really know for sure so you have to assume he gets them. Pretty sure it's either minny or the cubs.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

I wonder how long it will take before the agents come to the realization that teams are just not going to sign 30+ year old pitchers to more than three to four year contracts at most, from here on out? I bet they start pushing one-year deals, to tread water and try again next year to land six and seven year deals -- for guys who are another year older.

That would pretty well demonstrate to the players that teams just aren't going to give big deals to pitchers out through their age 37+ seasons. The numbers now prove pretty conclusively that pitchers just don't last that long.

 

[Omeletpants]

With all the high profile free agents next year competing for available dollars, an agent would be stupid to sign a 1 year deal now and bank on a huge multi year deal next year

 

[chibears55]

The rangers Gm has already said they are probably done. LAD have issues with luxury tax because not only are they already close but Maeda may get bonuses that could screw up their money situation and there's no way to really know for sure so you have to assume he gets them. Pretty sure it's either minny or the cubs.

Lol.. you keep knocking everyone out yet he still unsigned..

Just read that the Brewers supposedly made him an offer, but that was like an hour after it was being reported they had a trade for a SP closely done..lol

These media rumors are getting so stupid now, their throwing everything out there...


Im almost starting to believe that maybe the cubs do have the best offer out there for him and it probably is something like 4/110..
Boras probably having his people start false rumors saying teams are making offers etc. to try and get cubs to budge..lol

Yankees Dodgers Rangers Astros all have been in and out for him..

Twins are hanging around and hoping, and now the Brewers supposedly makes an offer after they supposedly had a trade getting done for a SP..

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[beckdawg]

Boras isn't his agent AFAIK. He's arrieta's but darvish has someone else if memory serves. As for saying other people are out... I'm not saying that. They are. Well maybe with the dodgers/yankees I am but that's because they are suggesting they want to stay under the luxury tax(what they said) and as presently situated they can't sign him and do that.

As for him being unsigned, I think that the fact he's unsigned is more than likely because these teams have dropped out. If the cubs and one or 2 other teams are it and the money isn't' right why would he sign? Waiting and hoping other teams become interested is the play.

 

[CSF77]

Well I hope the threat of the crew sweeping in and stealing him lights a fire under Theo to stop dicking around and waiting for the best deal. Right now he should be thinking blocking the Crew

 

[Omeletpants]

The best managers worry about improving their own team, not blocking opponents.

Reminds me of the guys on the Bears forum that want the Bears to draft a player so the Packers dont take him. It's a fail strategy for any team....worry about your own team

 

[beckdawg]

Well I hope the threat of the crew sweeping in and stealing him lights a fire under Theo to stop dicking around and waiting for the best deal. Right now he should be thinking blocking the Crew

This strikes me as Darvish's representation frantically trying to drum up interest. You have one of the larger threats to the cubs entering discussions at the 11th hour when there was 0 indication prior to this that Darvish or Milwaukee had mutual interest or for that matter that MIL was even going to sign a starter at all. Maybe they are interested but if you are them why are you suddenly vastly jumping the market to sign him?

That's why all these people being so antsy about the cubs doing something is annoying to me. Until at least one of Cobb, Darvish or Arrieta comes off the board there's literally no reason to worry. All of the pressure is on the players not the teams. And frankly the most pressure is probably on the top of the market guys because once one guy starts coming off the board that's fewer and fewer places to drive up prices.

Regardless if you think A) theo and company are going to let another team get Darvish for well below market value without at least countering the offer and B) that darvish wouldn't first give everyone else the chance to better an offer you're delusional. No one is going to "steal" him.

 

[beckdawg]

Also FWIW, the report of that brewers contract offer came from yahoo japan not your typical baseball sources.... so yeah I'm not saying it's "wrong" but really feels like a thing coming from his team more than anything.

 

[CSF77]

The best managers worry about improving their own team, not blocking opponents.

Reminds me of the guys on the Bears forum that want the Bears to draft a player so the Packers dont take him. It's a fail strategy for any team....worry about your own team

A SP would have the same impact as a QB has on football. It is not the same as a draft. Drafting in the NFL is more about filling team needs and the best talent at that spot. Those players are playing the next year and taking a player that you have no need of just to prevent another hurts you also because you should have used that pick to help you instead.

The Cubs need to replace Jake. I’m pretty sure we are all in agreement on this. Tax is 197 They have to include 13-15 mil for benifits in this. So basically 182 mil is their high water. They are at 155 mil. That is 27 mil that they can offer. So I can see them wanting to keep a few mil of flex for the deadline.

The Yanks are currently at 163 mil and are in a worse situation. They would have to shed contract to add Yu.

Now Mil is a threat right now if they add Yu. This would put them equal to the Cubs IMO with a staff ace on the mend. Which affects the future also. It is not a smart move to let them have that advantage.

 

[CSF77]

Also FWIW, the report of that brewers contract offer came from yahoo japan not your typical baseball sources.... so yeah I'm not saying it's "wrong" but really feels like a thing coming from his team more than anything.

Doubt that he would spread fake news to drum up fake support. No need to act like a certain politician.