Cub's Prospect Watch And Development Discussion Thread

SilenceS · Mar 12, 2014

Interesting article

In this week's Perspectives, Jim Callis and I are in agreement: Someone from the Cubs organization will win the Minor League home run title in 2014. We just differ on which Cubs prospect it will be.

In 2013, Rangers prospect Joey Gallo topped all Minor Leaguers with 40 home runs, almost all of which were hit in the Class A South Atlantic League. That might beg the question why he wouldn't be the obvious choice to repeat. Ranked No. 92 on our Top 100 Prospects list, Gallo has a grade of 75 on the 20-80 scouting scale for his raw power. Clearly, he can hit the ball out of any ballpark.

But Gallo also can swing and miss a lot, with the proof coming in the form of his 172 strikeouts in 411 at-bats in 2013. He struck out 37 percent of the time in the SAL. While I believe Gallo is still going to hit more than a fair share of homers, the concern about his ability to make consistent enough contact to once again top the Minors as he moves up the ladder was enough to make both Jim and I look in another direction.

Jim opted to go with Kris Bryant, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2013 Draft and No. 9 on the Top 100. Who can blame him? The third baseman hit a combined 46 homers between college, his pro debut and the Arizona Fall League in 2013. Bryant is going to carry the bat back to the dugout a bit, too, though it's not as big of a concern as it is with Gallo.

Who will lead the Minors in home runs in 2014?
Javier Baez
Kris Bryant

I wanted to go with someone with more of a track record in pro ball, a guy with more bat speed than perhaps anyone in all of Minor League Baseball. That's Javier Baez, No. 7 on the Top 100, just two spots ahead of his organization-mate.

Baez finished tied for second, with the Astros' George Springer, with 37 home runs last season. He played at two levels, the Florida State League and the Southern League, neither of which is particularly homer friendly. Baez actually improved his power output once he moved up a level, with 20 homers in 218 at-bats, compared to 17 in 299 at-bats before his promotion.

If you look at the numbers, I know where the criticism will come from. Baez, too, is no foreigner to the whiff, with 147 strikeouts in 2013. The two, power and strikeouts, do often go together. But Baez's strikeout rate -- 23.1 percent in the FSL, 28.8 percent in Double-A -- is dwarfed by Gallo's. And scouts almost universally believe Baez will hit for average as well as power. That's why he has a 60 hit grade, compared to Bryant's 55 and Gallo's 40.

The Cubs don't want to take away Baez's aggressiveness at the plate, nor should they. He will be just 21 for the entire 2014 season and has time to refine his approach enough to continue earning that high hitting grade.

The only thing that can keep Baez from winning the homer title is a callup to Chicago. I still think there's a chance he spends the Minor League season in the upper levels and then gets a September callup. Baez has played nothing but shortstop in big league camp, and he'd have to move and work on a new position to avoid the Starlin Castro roadblock. It's something the Cubs would do if they believe his bat is ready, but it might take him a little more time to be ready to play a new position.

Seeing Baez perform this spring, of course, makes me pause. His bat clearly isn't far away from being ready to produce in the big leagues. Something tells me no one in Cubs nation will be upset if I'm wrong about this one.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/chc...md=20140311&content_id=69109762&vkey=news_chc

JosMin · Mar 12, 2014

beckdawg said:
So i never put 2 and 2 together before but today I found out that Eric Jokisch went to the same high school as I did. I didn't really know him as I'm 6 years older but I think I played football with some of his relatives. Not a huge deal and all but the high school we're talking about had around 100-150 in the 4 grades combined. My graduating class was 35 IIRC. So, to have someone who's actually on the fringe prospect status is pretty cool. Definitely got someone to root for to make it despite the odds.

Jntg4 said:
Eric Jagielo garduated a few years ahead of me, Cubs drafted him straight from the HS (last round) before he went to ND then the Yanks.

SilenceS said:
I am from Slidell and for being a smallish town we have put out some pro's out my age group. I know Logan Morrison decently. I know Xavier Paul decently. I grew up with Matt Forte. I know Mike Fontenot. I dont really know Ryan Eades, but I was coached by his dad at one point. His dad was a great coach. State champion coach in baseball. He past away awhile ago. Slidell has put out some really good athletes for the size.

Oh yeah? WELL, JAVIER BAEZ IS MY BF AND HE GAVE ME A PROMISE RING!!!!!!!!!! A PROMISE THAT HE'S GOING TO GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE GREATEST CUBS EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

<3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap: <3 :fap:

CSF77 · Mar 12, 2014

wow

I was in the same class as Todd Huntley.....ya I know :fist:

SilenceS · Mar 13, 2014

Good podcast with Jason Parks. All about the Cubs.

http://wrigleyvillenation.com/2014/...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

beckdawg · Mar 13, 2014

I think perhaps the most interesting aspect of the talk was how he essentially said with the potential power from Baez, Bryant, Alcantara...etc that someone like Villenueva who may only hit 10-15 HR at 3B but will play great defense is a better fit. Well that and the fact he thinks they will trade Castro. I tend to agree with him as I've stated on here before. However, I saw on his twitter that he seemed low on Castro's trade value saying he didn't see him bringing a top of the rotation type starter. I kind of wish he would have clarified because I think he means a current top of the rotation player at the MLB level. I find it very difficult to believe Castro if he's at least 2012 Castro isn't worth a top 25 prospect as a SS who's signed reasonably for most of the next decade. Also, I feel like you could even do a package deal with say Castro, Soler and Vogelbach. That sort of package by the time you would be willing to move Castro should be worth a pretty decent starting pitcher. You'd probably be looking at Soler at AAA as a top 50 or better prospect and Vogelbach at AA/AAA as a likely top 100 guy. Maybe I'm naive here but I have to believe that would get you basically anyone who'd ever be available. By that I mean someone like Kershaw's never going to get traded but someone like jose fernandez for example might eventually hit the trade market just because that's sort of how the Marlins role.

CSF77 · Mar 13, 2014

etc that someone like Villenueva who may only hit 10-15 HR at 3B but will play great defense is a better fit.

(stupid)

That is giving up production. We call Barney out for that at 2B and he is proven.

I would put it as:

Olt wins it out of S/T and solidifies himself and Baez feels more comfortable at 2B that settles the IF.

Almora and Bryant are a year out at least. put on the back burner.

Alcantara would have to play himself into a spot on the team at that point.

beckdawg · Mar 13, 2014

CSF77 said:
(stupid)

That is giving up production. We call Barney out for that at 2B and he is proven.

I would put it as:

Olt wins it out of S/T and solidifies himself and Baez feels more comfortable at 2B that settles the IF.

Almora and Bryant are a year out at least. put on the back burner.

Alcantara would have to play himself into a spot on the team at that point.

The difference is that right now the cubs don't have 2-3 30+ HR guys and if they did Barney's production matters less. It would be similar to Kozma last year for STL in that yeah you'd like to upgrade but they made it work. Also, Parks was projecting Villanueva as a .260 hitter and given his walk rate in the minors you're talking about a .310-.330ish OBP vs Barney's career .246/.293/.336. That would make Villanueva an average offensive player with great defense and not a horrible one one. Also for what it's worth, Parks is saying Bryant will be in the majors before Baez.

I agree with what he said about Baez at SS and Alcantara at 2B though I am not entirely sold on the whole Villenueva at 3B thing. Castro at SS is an average defender based on UZR. He's a career -2.8 UZR/150 which is negligibly below 0. It's too early to make conclusions about Baez but given his tools scouts seem to believe he can be below average to average there. So, it's not like they are losing a gold glove player at SS by playing Baez there. Offensively, Baez is clearly going to play either way be it at SS/2B/3B...etc. So, from there you're really comparing Castro to Alcantara. It's hard to say whether or not Alcantara will amount to anything in the majors but given his AA you're talking about a switch hitter who has more power, more speed and who walks more than Castro and because of Alcantar's walks and Castro's really low walk rate someone who gets on base more. Scouts also feel Alcantara can be a plus-plus defender at 2B.

So, the way I see it is if Baez and Alcantara are what they appear to be as prospects you lose nothing defensively, gain cheaper players as they will be on their rookie deals and gain better offensive players which in the case of Alcantara benefits you with the ability to switch hit. Obviously that's ifs on prospects and all that. I'd rather keep Baez at SS and move Castro over to 2B to compete with Alcantara long term. At least that way the better player wins the job long term. If you move Baez off SS then you're stuck with trying to find a place for Alcantara because unless Baez is a massive failure as a prospect he's not moving again. And the problem with that in my eyes is that Alcantara may very well be the better overall player vs Castro given his offense and versatility. However, at that point you will either have to trade him or shoe-horn him into the OF some where. As such, you have very few options where as moving Castro to 2B probably makes him better defensively and gives you options on which of Alcantara or Castro eventually is moved.

chibears55 · Mar 13, 2014

CSF77 said:
(stupid)

That is giving up production. We call Barney out for that at 2B and he is proven.

I would put it as:

Olt wins it out of S/T and solidifies himself and Baez feels more comfortable at 2B that settles the IF.

Almora and Bryant are a year out at least. put on the back burner.

Alcantara would have to play himself into a spot on the team at that point.

Best case scenario would be if Olt and Baez can establish themselves at 3B and 2B then prospects like alcantara and Villanueva can become solid trade bait for pitching or position upgrade (OF) .

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CSF77 · Mar 13, 2014

beckdawg said:
The difference is that right now the cubs don't have 2-3 30+ HR guys and if they did Barney's production matters less. It would be similar to Kozma last year for STL in that yeah you'd like to upgrade but they made it work. Also, Parks was projecting Villanueva as a .260 hitter and given his walk rate in the minors you're talking about a .310-.330ish OBP vs Barney's career .246/.293/.336. That would make Villanueva an average offensive player with great defense and not a horrible one one. Also for what it's worth, Parks is saying Bryant will be in the majors before Baez.

I agree with what he said about Baez at SS and Alcantara at 2B though I am not entirely sold on the whole Villenueva at 3B thing. Castro at SS is an average defender based on UZR. He's a career -2.8 UZR/150 which is negligibly below 0. It's too early to make conclusions about Baez but given his tools scouts seem to believe he can be below average to average there. So, it's not like they are losing a gold glove player at SS by playing Baez there. Offensively, Baez is clearly going to play either way be it at SS/2B/3B...etc. So, from there you're really comparing Castro to Alcantara. It's hard to say whether or not Alcantara will amount to anything in the majors but given his AA you're talking about a switch hitter who has more power, more speed and who walks more than Castro and because of Alcantar's walks and Castro's really low walk rate someone who gets on base more. Scouts also feel Alcantara can be a plus-plus defender at 2B.

So, the way I see it is if Baez and Alcantara are what they appear to be as prospects you lose nothing defensively, gain cheaper players as they will be on their rookie deals and gain better offensive players which in the case of Alcantara benefits you with the ability to switch hit. Obviously that's ifs on prospects and all that. I'd rather keep Baez at SS and move Castro over to 2B to compete with Alcantara long term. At least that way the better player wins the job long term. If you move Baez off SS then you're stuck with trying to find a place for Alcantara because unless Baez is a massive failure as a prospect he's not moving again. And the problem with that in my eyes is that Alcantara may very well be the better overall player vs Castro given his offense and versatility. However, at that point you will either have to trade him or shoe-horn him into the OF some where. As such, you have very few options where as moving Castro to 2B probably makes him better defensively and gives you options on which of Alcantara or Castro eventually is moved.

That is why projections are pointless.

Right now Castro is the starting SS. It is good that he got hurt some so we can get a better look at Baez. But Castro was raking pre-injury. He will have a few months to build up his value one way or the other.

Baez has done fine at SS this spring but moving to 2B should quicken his promotion. Less opportunities to make errors. Castro is at the 20 error range which was 1/2 what Baez made.

Early prediction: Baez gets promoted at the end of June and moves to 2B. Murphy cut. Barney moved to UI.
Olt wins 3B.
Bryant promoted to Iowa in July.
Soler and Almora end season in Tenn.

Iowa goes to play offs no one gets a call up.

Best I can give ya. Going into next year Soler and Almora are at Iowa. Bryant gets moved to RF or LF depending on if Lake busts this year (still calling a Lake bust this year) Olt proves to be solid at 3B. Bryant moves to corner OF for the year. Alcantara and Szczur battle for CF. When Almora and Soler are ready then some trades have to be made to open playing time. (If they continue to progress).

Still there are plenty of factors here to concider: Injury/busting. I wouldn't stake a claim anywhere. Right now 3B is under competition. Olt looks to be grabbing it right now. SS is Castro's. Barney has to prove he is not a .200 hitter. Even so if Baez feels comfortable there he is getting it regardless. Castro has $$$ to his name. Barney never got a contract. Shows you what their worth is to the team.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp...tebook_id=69232998&vkey=notebook_chc&c_id=chc

MESA, Ariz. -- Mike Olt recalls a spring game or two last year when he had a lot of success, similar to Wednesday night, when he hit two home runs and added an RBI single.

"Last year, I had a couple nights like this, but I felt like I almost got lucky," Olt said. "This year is definitely a whole different feeling. I'm feeling way more comfortable at the plate, seeing the ball really well. It helps me go forward and know that I'm definitely in the clear and looking forward to what's to come."

Olt was in the Rangers' camp last spring, and he is now with the Cubs, who acquired the third baseman in July in the Matt Garza deal. He appeared in 19 games with Texas in 2013 and batted .194 while battling vision problems which started after he suffered a concussion. Olt is seeing the ball just fine this spring.

"Last year, answering the questions [about my vision] every day was tough, because we didn't know -- I didn't know -- what to expect," Olt said. "It's a little easier to answer everything now and know that hopefully soon it won't be [asked about]."

Olt was more encouraged by the improvements he's made with his swing after some extra work in batting practice, and he feels his timing is better.

"I almost felt like I just put the bat on the ball somehow [last year]," he said. "I wasn't seeing pitches that I'm used to hitting. I think this year is a lot better. I'm going with my approach and being able to execute it now."

That's good news for the Cubs, who could use more pop in the lineup. Chicago's third-base options include Luis Valbuena and Donnie Murphy. Olt has played first or been the designated hitter this spring to give his right shoulder time to get stronger. He spent this offseason rehabbing the sore shoulder, and the Cubs have been cautious about where he plays to keep the stress level down.

When will he play third?

"Soon," Olt said. "I know it's going to be soon. I said before, the biggest thing is I don't want to have a setback. They really wanted to take it slow."

CSF77 · Mar 13, 2014

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2014/03/is-barney-getting-squeezed-out-of-the-cubs-lineup/

UPDATE: 2:15 PM Since writing this piece, I've been told to expect that the 3B job will to go to Mike Olt as long as his shoulder is ok and he can make the throws from 3B. The Cubs are preparing to start him there very soon this spring. I've also heard that Renteria wants to add speed to the roster, so Bonifacio is looking good for a spot. I've learned too that a lot of teams coveted Bonifacio because of his clubhouse presence and aside from his on-field skills, that trait makes him a good fit for a team like the Cubs who will be bringing up multiple young players to the majors in the near future.

While players like Javier Baez and Mike Olt looking like potential impact infielders and players like Emilio Bonifacio showing he can fill a specific niche for the team, one player who seems to be fading into the background is defensive wizard Darwin Barney.

Barney's defense has made him a nice fit on a staff that is being taught to pound the lower part of the strike zone and generate weak contact, but it's Barney's own weak contact that could start to become an issue. His woeful wOBA of .252 last year is an offensive vacuum the Cubs may not be able to afford to carry much longer.

Still, if you would have asked me a a couple of weeks ago, I would have said that Barney was still the front runner to keep his job at 2B.

Now I'm not so sure.

There are several factors working against Barney right now as the Cubs look to upgrade their lineup for 2014.

The Bonifacio factor

While it's only spring, it seems that Barney is getting fewer and fewer reps at 2B. He's played some SS while Bonifacio has started most of the recent games at 2B. And while Bonifacio is not going to match Barney on defense, he can add a dimension the Cubs don't have, and that is a top of the order hitter with speed and OBP skills. With the exception of a half season last season, Bonifacio has been a pretty good table-setter type player. If you take out his poor half-season with the Blue Jays, he has put up a .351 OBP with 86 SBs in 102 attempts (84% success rate) in 258 games over the past 3 seasons.

In that light, it isn't surprising that Bonifacio has seen a lot of time at the top of the Cubs lineup. He can provide a spark at the top. He isn't the defensive player Barney is, but his career -2.6 UZR/150 suggests he's at least around an average defender -- perhaps better when you consider that in his only full season at 2B (2011), he put up a very solid 8.3 UZR/150.

The Olt factor

Olt doesn't play 2B so why should he have any impact on Barney? Well, Olt is hitting .333 with 3 HRs this spring and if his shoulder is healthy, he's a real threat to unseat the Luis Valbuena/Donnie Murphy platoon at 3B. That, in turn, would either bump Valbuena into a utility role and/or put him in a position to challenge Barney for playing time, especially vs. RHP against whom Valbuena put up a respectable .331 OBP and hit 12 HRs last season.

As for his defense, Valbuena played well in just 40 innings last year at 2B Overall he's been a below average defender at 2B in his career (-6.6 UZR/150), However, Valbuena has improved a bit and has been at roughly -0.5 since that 2010 season over 719 innings. Like Bonifacio, you can probably live with that considering he can add some offense to the position short term.

If Olt wins 3B, that gives the Cubs two 2Bs in Valbuena and Bonifacio who can provide better offense without hurting the team too much on defense. And the player who doesn't start would offer better skills off the bench (Valbuena as a LH hitter with pop and Bonifacio as a switch-hitter with speed) than Barney, who would become little more than a late inning defensive replacement.

The Baez factor

Of course, all of these solutions are temporary. Sooner or later the Cubs are going to have to make a decision with Javier Baez, who is tearing up spring training for the 2nd straight year. He's also coming off a season where he hit 37 HRs and absolutely destroyed AA pitching. He's going to play SS at Iowa, but with Starlin Castro entrenched for the moment at SS, Baez's preferred position is 2B -- and with Olt playing as well as he has, you have to think the Cubs are going to be happy to oblige.

Even if the Cubs decide to move Starlin Castro, as Baseball Prospectus' Jason Parks alluded to yesterday on Twitter, the Cubs still have another top, near ready 2B prospect in Arismendy Alcantara. Alcantara can add a dynamic offensive dimension to the position with his speed, OBP skills, and his ability to switch-hit. He can also provide some solid pop while possessing a potentially above average glove for the position.

No matter what happens on Opening Day, it appears Barney's days as a Cubs are numbered. His escalating salary will soon be too rich for a one dimensional player and so perhaps the Cubs best chance to extract value is this season. A team such as the Yankees who have enough offense but are in need of better infield defense could be a nice fit in the short term.

Even if he isn't traded, the Cubs seem to be preparing Barney for a utility role whether it's now or sometime later this season. He's played more SS this spring and while that is due in part to Castro's injury, it does appear that the Cubs are making a concerted effort to determine if he's a viable option there if needed -- if not for them, then maybe for another team.

chibears55 · Mar 13, 2014

I said before that it wouldn't surprise me to see 3 pieces added to tge core of castillo rizzo and castrothis season.. Olt will probably start the season with them , baez could come up by june/july and Bryant after the deadline if he has a big year.

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beckdawg · Mar 13, 2014

CSF77 said:
Baez has done fine at SS this spring but moving to 2B should quicken his promotion.

This is my point of contention. Baez should be promoted when he's ready. If he can't play SS fine move him off it. But moving him off SS to put him in the majors sooner isn't a smart move in my opinion. He's got more than enough to work on at AAA. If you listened to the podcast that was posted Parks talked about this and how if Baez were in the majors right now he would get "molested" because he's too aggressive at this point and major league pitching will exploit this. That was his reasoning behind him suggesting Bryant will be up sooner because he's much more patient.

Simply stated, they should make a decision on where his position is going to be and promote him when he's ready both offensively and defensively and move others around him not the other way around. If they decide that is 2B fine. But if they think he's a SS this moving him to 2B and then trying to go back to SS later is going to just make matters worse. And if he stays at 2B when he can legitimately play SS that is an enormous loss in value which is the reasons teams don't push players off SS in the minors unless they have to. If the cubs were a playoff contender and Baez could push them over the top then fine rush him up but at this point you're banking on him being the super star to carry the team over the next decade. So, put him in the place where you maximize his value and if he can play SS that's where it is.

I mean look at it this way. Let's say offensively he's ready for the majors in May but he needs the rest of the year at AAA to be ready defensively. What's 3-4 months in the grand scheme of things? If nothing else it's pushing back his arbitration/FA

chibears55 · Mar 13, 2014

beckdawg said:
This is my point of contention. Baez should be promoted when he's ready. If he can't play SS fine move him off it. But moving him off SS to put him in the majors sooner isn't a smart move in my opinion. He's got more than enough to work on at AAA. If you listened to the podcast that was posted Parks talked about this and how if Baez were in the majors right now he would get "molested" because he's too aggressive at this point and major league pitching will exploit this. That was his reasoning behind him suggesting Bryant will be up sooner because he's much more patient.

Simply stated, they should make a decision on where his position is going to be and promote him when he's ready both offensively and defensively and move others around him not the other way around. If they decide that is 2B fine. But if they think he's a SS this moving him to 2B and then trying to go back to SS later is going to just make matters worse. And if he stays at 2B when he can legitimately play SS that is an enormous loss in value which is the reasons teams don't push players off SS in the minors unless they have to. If the cubs were a playoff contender and Baez could push them over the top then fine rush him up but at this point you're banking on him being the super star to carry the team over the next decade. So, put him in the place where you maximize his value and if he can play SS that's where it is.

I mean look at it this way. Let's say offensively he's ready for the majors in May but he needs the rest of the year at AAA to be ready defensively. What's 3-4 months in the grand scheme of things? If nothing else it's pushing back his arbitration/FA

I think their hoping to have both castro and baez in the lineup.. best case scenario would be castro goes back to hitting like he did and baez keeps hitting while playing a decent 2B.. those two if they play to their capabilities could stabilize that middle infield for many years.

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CSF77 · Mar 14, 2014

beckdawg said:
This is my point of contention. Baez should be promoted when he's ready. If he can't play SS fine move him off it. But moving him off SS to put him in the majors sooner isn't a smart move in my opinion. He's got more than enough to work on at AAA. If you listened to the podcast that was posted Parks talked about this and how if Baez were in the majors right now he would get "molested" because he's too aggressive at this point and major league pitching will exploit this. That was his reasoning behind him suggesting Bryant will be up sooner because he's much more patient.

Simply stated, they should make a decision on where his position is going to be and promote him when he's ready both offensively and defensively and move others around him not the other way around. If they decide that is 2B fine. But if they think he's a SS this moving him to 2B and then trying to go back to SS later is going to just make matters worse. And if he stays at 2B when he can legitimately play SS that is an enormous loss in value which is the reasons teams don't push players off SS in the minors unless they have to. If the cubs were a playoff contender and Baez could push them over the top then fine rush him up but at this point you're banking on him being the super star to carry the team over the next decade. So, put him in the place where you maximize his value and if he can play SS that's where it is.

I mean look at it this way. Let's say offensively he's ready for the majors in May but he needs the rest of the year at AAA to be ready defensively. What's 3-4 months in the grand scheme of things? If nothing else it's pushing back his arbitration/FA

His errors was caused by him being too aggressive at SS. Most scouts want his bat to be aggressive but to slow down the rest of his game.

I watched the game. I hope he took notes on how Cano played 2B. Cool customer out there and makes the perfect throws.

It should not affect his bat.

He has some development but his bat is more advanced than his glove. 2B has less error opportunities. Pretty basic stuff.

If he hits June 15 and he has near 20 HR's he is getting promoted. Happened with Rizzo. Get him past his super 2 cut off then see where he is at.

Regardless, Olt winning 3B and Bon leading off at 2B makes the line up interesting. Another article had Schierholtz not in a platoon. Turns out he hit LH pitching better in Frisco and was glad he was in a platoon where he could strengthen his weakness: RH pitching.

If he goes full time I could see Lake in CF and Ruggiano full time in LF.

Line up could become:

Bon 2B
Castro SS
Rizzo 1B
Ruggiano LF
Schierholtz RF
Olt 3B
Lake CF
Castillo C

pretty much every day.

It would be interesting to see how many HR's Schierholtz gets if he gets 600 AB's. Last year his HR rate was 1/22 AB's. So 27 HR's under those projections.

CSF77 · Mar 14, 2014

MESA, Ariz. -- The numbers don't make sense. In 2009, Nate Schierholtz, a left-handed hitter, batted .370 against left-handed pitchers, and just .242 against right-handers. The next year, he batted .294 against lefties.

Aren't left-handed hitters supposed to struggle against southpaw pitchers?

"I played a lot back then," Schierholtz said Wednesday. "My first couple full seasons with the Giants, I actually almost platooned against left-handers, which is strange for a lefty. A lot of the time I would start only against lefties and swung the bat pretty well."

Cubs manager Rick Renteria remembers Schierholtz's odd stats from when he saw the outfielder in Giants games against the Padres.

"With my role there [with the Giants], I wasn't playing every day, so gradually it got back to facing mainly right-handers," said Schierholtz, who was put in more of a platoon situation last season, his first with the Cubs.

"Obviously, in a perfect world, I'd like to face anyone and everyone," he said. "I also think me just getting to play against righties last year was huge."

Renteria talks about matchups, and will most likely crunch the numbers to decide how he'll use Schierholtz and the other outfielders, right-handed-hitting Justin Ruggiano and Junior Lake and lefty Ryan Sweeney. Schierholtz has quietly stated his case for more full-time play.

"They know how I feel about it," Schierholtz said. "I understand matchups -- it seems like they're getting bigger in the game. You never know what can happen. I'm trying to stay positive about it and hopefully I can get some opportunities to show during the season that I can play every day."

In his first season with the Cubs, Schierholtz played a career-high 137 games, and produced. He set personal highs in home runs (21), doubles (32), RBIs (68) and at-bats (462). His previous at-bat high was 335 in 2011 with the Giants.

But Schierholtz also will be a free agent after this season, and he's seen what the Cubs have done with other veteran players in his situation at the Trade Deadline. There's a need for experienced left-handed-hitting outfielders. Schierholtz isn't monitoring the trade rumors.

"I love my teammates here, the fans are great, I love the city, and in a perfect world, I'd like to be here for a long time and be part of the future," he said. "Free agency, at the same time, is definitely another plus for any player. It's something I can't really control. All I can do is go out and play well and it takes care of itself."

He hasn't talked to Cubs management about his desire to stay.

"In this situation, it's up to them," Schierholtz said. "I think they know how I feel. I feel fortunate to be here, and I really enjoy it here."

He was able to adjust to the quirky schedule the Cubs have to deal with, switching from day games to night games, and sometimes having three different start times in three days.

"We're never really on a set schedule coming off the road, and having a lot of night games," he said. "For me, that's the adjustment your body has to make, and really was the biggest change. I've always enjoyed playing at Wrigley in front of the fans."

This spring, he reported healed from a sore shoulder that nagged him last season. Schierholtz is taking advantage of the Cubs' new facility in Mesa. If you need to find him, he's usually in the weight room.

"I have zero [physical] issues, zero problems," he said. "My body is healthy. I'm just trying to prepare myself for Opening Day."

Against a lefty? Schierholtz laughed.

"You never know what can happen," he said. "I love playing every day. It's what I did throughout my Minor League career, and hit a little speed bump when I got to the big leagues for a bit. I feel like I'm a young 30 and ready to play a lot for the rest of my career."

Schierholtz had spent his entire career with the Giants until he was included in a four-player deal with the Phillies for Hunter Pence. His time there didn't go well as he fractured his right big toe and was limited to 37 games. He signed with the Cubs as a free agent in December 2012.

When Schierholtz talked to the Cubs prior to the 2013 season, he was given assurances from president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer that he would play. He appreciates that.

"Everyone from Theo to Jed to Dale to the staff made me feel comfortable," he said, referring to former manager Dale Sveum. "They gave me the opportunity. They told me from Day 1 that they wanted me to hit fifth and play right, and that just lifted a big weight off my shoulders. I was always trying to make a team and always unsure of my future with the Giants. When I came here, they really just believed in me and that's all I needed from a team."

And that's all anyone can ask.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/chc...md=20140312&content_id=69194652&vkey=news_chc

My opinion is the players coming up are RH. They are needing a 2nd LH power stick. I feel they already have him and if he can prove that he is full time and with his arm and D in RF you retain him.

beckdawg · Mar 14, 2014

chibears55 said:
I think their hoping to have both castro and baez in the lineup.. best case scenario would be castro goes back to hitting like he did and baez keeps hitting while playing a decent 2B.. those two if they play to their capabilities could stabilize that middle infield for many years.

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I'm of the opinion that "best case" is Baez and Alcantara being what they appear to be and trading Castro. We're talking about a guy who will hit something like .283/.322/.404 get you 10-15 HRs and and steal 20-25 bases. To give a player comparison, Alejandro De Aza put up similar numbers last year and he's routinely been a 7-9 hitter on the sox. That has value and a lot of teams don't have that at SS. However, Alcantara hit .271/.352/.451 in AA last season. Baez hit .294/.346/.638. If those two are what they appear to be they are better hitters. 30 points in on base isn't nothing scoff at. If Alcantara hits that you're talking about a Victorino or Zobrist level player(probably with more steals than Zobrist). That legitimately could be a top of the order hitter.

The problem with Castro is that usually when we talk about young players who are good you talk about where they can be if they improve. But where does Castro improve? He's never shown the speed to steal more than 20-25 bases. He's never walked at more than 5.7% in the majors. Last year only 24 players hit over .300 so the likelihood that he'd be able to improve on his average over what we've already seen is unlikely. That's the reason the front office tried to screw with him is because a hitter with his skill set who walks 5% of the time has limited value.

In my opinion we've already seen the best Castro there is to see. If you compare him to someone like Yunel Escobar I think it's fair. Escobar has a little less power and a lot less speed but has a career triple slash of .278/.350/.386. He's bounced around the league(been on 4 teams at 30) always finding a place to start but never being good enough to stick long term anywhere. That's how I see things playing out.

brett05 · Mar 14, 2014

beckdawg said:
I'm of the opinion that "best case" is Baez and Alcantara being what they appear to be and trading Castro. We're talking about a guy who will hit something like .283/.322/.404 get you 10-15 HRs and and steal 20-25 bases. To give a player comparison, Alejandro De Aza put up similar numbers last year and he's routinely been a 7-9 hitter on the sox. That has value and a lot of teams don't have that at SS. However, Alcantara hit .271/.352/.451 in AA last season. Baez hit .294/.346/.638. If those two are what they appear to be they are better hitters. 30 points in on base isn't nothing scoff at. If Alcantara hits that you're talking about a Victorino or Zobrist level player(probably with more steals than Zobrist). That legitimately could be a top of the order hitter.

The problem with Castro is that usually when we talk about young players who are good you talk about where they can be if they improve. But where does Castro improve? He's never shown the speed to steal more than 20-25 bases. He's never walked at more than 5.7% in the majors. Last year only 24 players hit over .300 so the likelihood that he'd be able to improve on his average over what we've already seen is unlikely. That's the reason the front office tried to screw with him is because a hitter with his skill set who walks 5% of the time has limited value.

In my opinion we've already seen the best Castro there is to see. If you compare him to someone like Yunel Escobar I think it's fair. Escobar has a little less power and a lot less speed but has a career triple slash of .278/.350/.386. He's bounced around the league(been on 4 teams at 30) always finding a place to start but never being good enough to stick long term anywhere. That's how I see things playing out.

He almost exclusively leads off.