I'll admit that I'm not nearly as good as many of you at actually analyzing the details of prospects, but it seems to me that lately, a large predictor for whether a prospect might be a good pro is whether they were a good college player.
This may seem to be a dumb observation, but it does seem more true in recent years than in past years, probably due to pro offensive minds being more willing to change to play to incoming players' strengths and incorporate more college-style offenses.
So suddenly we're seeing an influx of athletic players who maybe don't have what's seen as a pure pro skillset having good starts to their NFL careers.
The last six Heisman winners are:
Devonta Smith
Joe Burrow
Kyler Murray
Baker Mayfield
Lamar Jackson
Derrick Henry
All were killers in college, and with the pending exception of Smith, hit the ground running in the pros, at least for the most part.
The previous seven Heisman winners were:
Marcus Mariota
Jameis Winston
Johnny Manziel
Robert Griffin III
Cam Newton
Mark Ingram
Sam Bradford
All were killers in college, but almost none saw major success at the pro level.
Times, they are a-changing.
Could you find guys who were great in college recently, but sucked in the pros? No doubt. How about guys who were just O.K.-to-good in college, but are great pros? Sure. But we're talking about general trends, not fool-proof methods without exceptions.
Point being:
Don't get too cute. Find the guys who kicked ass in college, and draft them.