Fire Sale!

[dabynsky]

I think BABIP depends in large part on the defensive positioning. You might notice that a lot of teams have started overshifting for Soto to pull, and he does hit a lot of line drives, but they are right into the shift. Dude has power, but I can't even recall how many times I've just been exasperated that he hit the cover off the ball and was robbed. Ugh.

I do think you are right that overshifting can play a part on that, but I seem to recall teams shifting heavily on Geo last year as well. General rule of thumb that I have seen is that you can about .120 to LD% to find out roughly what BABIP should be. Last year Geo was just barely under that number with what you would expect at .364 compared to the actual .324. That could be in large part due to overshifting. The fact that Geovany Soto has what you would expect for BABIP at .353 compared to .259 makes me hopeful that he should rebound.

 

[Rice Cube]

I do think you are right that overshifting can play a part on that, but I seem to recall teams shifting heavily on Geo last year as well. General rule of thumb that I have seen is that you can about .120 to LD% to find out roughly what BABIP should be. Last year Geo was just barely under that number with what you would expect at .364 compared to the actual .324. That could be in large part due to overshifting. The fact that Geovany Soto has what you would expect for BABIP at .353 compared to .259 makes me hopeful that he should rebound.

I'm not as good with the plate discipline stats but I imagine that his swinging strike percentages may have changed a bit. My lying eyes tell me that he's striking out swinging more than usual, and while his walk rate still hovers around 10% which I think is decent, he's just not getting on base as much because of a number of factors including perhaps his altered plate discipline.

 

[dabynsky]

I'm not as good with the plate discipline stats but I imagine that his swinging strike percentages may have changed a bit. My lying eyes tell me that he's striking out swinging more than usual, and while his walk rate still hovers around 10% which I think is decent, he's just not getting on base as much because of a number of factors including perhaps his altered plate discipline.

Well your eyes on lying on the strikeouts since he is actually striking out at a slight lower percentage this year (25.3% this year to 25.8% last year). I would have to look at it closer to see if an approach has changed because guys can avoid strikeouts in bad ways too. Swinging early in the count is an easy way to avoid strikeouts, and his huge drop in walks (10.4% this year to 16% last year) might be evidence of that.

 

[Rice Cube]

Well your eyes on lying on the strikeouts since he is actually striking out at a slight lower percentage this year (25.3% this year to 25.8% last year). I would have to look at it closer to see if an approach has changed because guys can avoid strikeouts in bad ways too. Swinging early in the count is an easy way to avoid strikeouts, and his huge drop in walks (10.4% this year to 16% last year) might be evidence of that.

He does take a lot of early pitches. Easier to strike out on a two-strike count than a one-strike count or no-strike count

I wonder if FanGraphs differentiates between called strikeouts and swinging strikeouts. Maybe that's why it seems like he's striking out more, all those swings and misses.

 

[dabynsky]

He does take a lot of early pitches. Easier to strike out on a two-strike count than a one-strike count or no-strike count

I wonder if FanGraphs differentiates between called strikeouts and swinging strikeouts. Maybe that's why it seems like he's striking out more, all those swings and misses.

Fangraphs doesn't distinguish in terms of strikeouts but it has really cool data in the plate discipline area. He is swinging at more pitches outside of the zone, missing them more frequently, and the number of times he swings and misses is up as well. Those are some negative numbers, and could be signs of pressing given his poor numbers so far this year or coming back from injury as well.

 

[beardown28]

HR and AVG? The stats used in 1980 don't fly anymore. You look stupid using those stats. They don't correlate to runs very well at all. Saying that he is a beast when he has the highest OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ of all catchers does not make me look stupid.

Your argument is based off of facts used out of context. Mine isn't. THAT IS TRUE!!!

Soriano is not good at defense. I never said that. I said he is a good LEFT fielder. Which he is.

Darwin Barney is terrible with the bat. He is horrible.

Soriano is not a good left fielder.

So would you rather have Soto up to bat in a game winning situation or Posey/Mauer..... hmmm i'll take the latter. I like Soto but he isn't better than Mauer/Posey

 

[dabynsky]

1. Soriano is not a good left fielder.

2. So would you rather have Soto up to bat in a game winning situation or Posey/Mauer..... hmmm i'll take the latter. I like Soto but he isn't better than Mauer/Posey

1. Is a given. I know you guys like to keep hammer someone over this one, but can we move on for the sake of argument.

2. That wasn't what he argued though. He argued that last year Soto had a better year than Mauer and Posey. There is an argument that could be made for that if you look at all the numbers. I don't think it is as clear cut one way or the other as either side makes the argument.

To answer your question this year I would clearly want Mauer or Posey over Soto. Last year I probably would have gone in order of Mauer, Soto, Posey for needing a game winning hit. Mauer and Posey are both clearly better players (Mauer for the high average combined with a good eye almost always results in OBP well over 400 and Posey is younger than all of these guys putting up equal or better numbers) than Soto. That doesn't mean that Soto isn't a valuable player and a guy that we ought to keep.

 

[beardown28]

1. Is a given. I know you guys like to keep hammer someone over this one, but can we move on for the sake of argument.

2. That wasn't what he argued though. He argued that last year Soto had a better year than Mauer and Posey. There is an argument that could be made for that if you look at all the numbers. I don't think it is as clear cut one way or the other as either side makes the argument.

To answer your question this year I would clearly want Mauer or Posey over Soto. Last year I probably would have gone in order of Mauer, Soto, Posey for needing a game winning hit. Mauer and Posey are both clearly better players (Mauer for the high average combined with a good eye almost always results in OBP well over 400 and Posey is younger than all of these guys putting up equal or better numbers) than Soto. That doesn't mean that Soto isn't a valuable player and a guy that we ought to keep.

1. We don't like to keep hammering a guy about something unless he continues to bring it up.

2. I would still have gone Mauer, Posey, Soto. I'm not saying Soto isn't valuable, or worth keeping for that matter. I personally like Soto. Are there other catchers I would rather have.. yes, but then again I could say that for every position on the team.

3. I also have to mention something about him saying Barney isn't good with the bat. Nice little paragraph from Chicagocubs.com, "The 25-year-old leads major league rookies in batting average, hits (73), runs scored and multi-hit games (25). Barney also ranks tied for third among National League rookies in RBI, ranks third in total bases (89) and ranks second in triples."

I'd say those numbers are pretty decent.

 

[dabynsky]

1. We don't like to keep hammering a guy about something unless he continues to bring it up.

2. I would still have gone Mauer, Posey, Soto. I'm not saying Soto isn't valuable, or worth keeping for that matter. I personally like Soto. Are there other catchers I would rather have.. yes, but then again I could say that for every position on the team.

3. I also have to mention something about him saying Barney isn't good with the bat. Nice little paragraph from Chicagocubs.com, "The 25-year-old leads major league rookies in batting average, hits (73), runs scored and multi-hit games (25). Barney also ranks tied for third among National League rookies in RBI, ranks third in total bases (89) and ranks second in triples."

I'd say those numbers are pretty decent.

1. Fair point...

2. I would have taken Soto last year because he got on base at much higher clip than Posey and really had similar power. That said you couldn't really go wrong with one of these three guys last year.

3. Barney is a nice player that can hit for a decent average and has a good glove. That doesn't mean he sucks, but just because he leads the league in hits doesn't automatically he is good with the bat. The guy currently has a .321 OBP and a .359 SLG. Those aren't good numbers. The fact that we have a guy with .680 OPS hitting second does not help our team.

Barney does have some use because he can play multiple spots. He has a good glove, and he does a good job of making contact. That said he doesn't draw walks and he has no power. He is a guy that is useful, but don't confuse that with being a good hitter.

 

[beardown28]

1. Fair point...

2. I would have taken Soto last year because he got on base at much higher clip than Posey and really had similar power. That said you couldn't really go wrong with one of these three guys last year.

3. Barney is a nice player that can hit for a decent average and has a good glove. That doesn't mean he sucks, but just because he leads the league in hits doesn't automatically he is good with the bat. The guy currently has a .321 OBP and a .359 SLG. Those aren't good numbers. The fact that we have a guy with .680 OPS hitting second does not help our team.

Barney does have some use because he can play multiple spots. He has a good glove, and he does a good job of making contact. That said he doesn't draw walks and he has no power. He is a guy that is useful, but don't confuse that with being a good hitter.

I'd have to say I agree with everything you said.

 

[Captain Obvious]

Ya... I said they weren't. But if the general population uses them, it isn't stupid to use them... read what I was saying again. You can't call someone stupid for using those stats when 99% of fans use those same stats. There is just a small population that researches to see if there are better stats... as I said in my post.

He wasn't being stupid, simple as that. Because if he's stupid, then almost every baseball fan is.

I would say that the majority of baseball fans are not stupid, but rather ignorant, because most don't know any better. Maybe he doesn't know any better, but given that there is a lot of sabermetric talk on here, I will go ahead and say that he is stupid

Soto has never been a beast Albert Pujols is a beast Soto not so much. Everything you say doesn't make any sense Sori a good LF is comical same with Darwin. Same with your argument if we get Prince he will solve all the issues. You truly are a homer saying that Soto is a beast and that we would be a contender with Fielder truly

So your argument is that because Pujols is a beast, Soto wasn't? That is a terrible argument.

Soriano is a good left fielder. There are some really shitty LFers, such as Bay, Ibanez, Braun, Pierre. You have posted literally nothing to say that he isn't. He has plus range, a plus arm, and normally his errors are what kills him, however if you look, he's only made 4 errors this year.

When have I ever said that Fielder would solve all of our problems? LOL.

We can contend with Fielder and another piece. We have a lot of above average players on this team.

Soriano is not a good left fielder.

So would you rather have Soto up to bat in a game winning situation or Posey/Mauer..... hmmm i'll take the latter. I like Soto but he isn't better than Mauer/Posey

I would much rather have Posey or Mauer. That's not what I said at all, though. I would love for you to post something showing me why Soriano is not a good LFer, because no one has done that yet.

1. We don't like to keep hammering a guy about something unless he continues to bring it up.

2. I would still have gone Mauer, Posey, Soto. I'm not saying Soto isn't valuable, or worth keeping for that matter. I personally like Soto. Are there other catchers I would rather have.. yes, but then again I could say that for every position on the team.

3. I also have to mention something about him saying Barney isn't good with the bat. Nice little paragraph from Chicagocubs.com, "The 25-year-old leads major league rookies in batting average, hits (73), runs scored and multi-hit games (25). Barney also ranks tied for third among National League rookies in RBI, ranks third in total bases (89) and ranks second in triples."

I'd say those numbers are pretty decent.

How the **** are you actually defending Barney here? He gets on base just 32% of the time. He actually walks less than Alfonso Soriano. You can throw out as many counting stats as you want, but they don't mean anything at all.



Dabynsky, I thought I quoted your post, but I guess I missed it...

I am curious as to why you think Soriano is not a good left fielder. Good fielder? Hell no. Good left fielder? Yes.

 

[Jntg4]

I would say that the majority of baseball fans are not stupid, but rather ignorant, because most don't know any better. Maybe he doesn't know any better, but given that there is a lot of sabermetric talk on here, I will go ahead and say that he is stupid

How the **** are you actually defending Barney here? He gets on base just 32% of the time. He actually walks less than Alfonso Soriano. You can throw out as many counting stats as you want, but they don't mean anything at all.

I wouldn't say ignorant either... if they know how the game works, like sacs are good and stuff, they are normal... while saber knowledge goes towards expertise.

2011 OBP:
Barney: .321
Soriano: .299 (WTF? I didn't think it was that low!)

 

[Jntg4]

2011 OBP:
Barney: .321
Soriano: .299
NL Average OBP: .319
MLB Average OBP: .320

So he's average, not terrible at getting on.

 

[dabynsky]

Dabynsky, I thought I quoted your post, but I guess I missed it...

I am curious as to why you think Soriano is not a good left fielder. Good fielder? Hell no. Good left fielder? Yes.

I don't think he is a good fielder for LF. Just because there are other bad fielders playing LF doesn't mean Soriano is good. I say that based upon watching him play. He was always a guy that relied on athleticism more than instincts and not that a lot of that athleticism is gone he looks really bad out there.

Stats also don't paint a pretty picture. UZR of 0.8 is really pretty bad. There are worst ones out there, but he isn't good at fielding. His 4 errors isn't exactly great either with only Juan Pierre having more amongst LFs.

I wouldn't say ignorant either... if they know how the game works, like sacs are good and stuff, they are normal... while saber knowledge goes towards expertise.

2011 OBP:
Barney: .321
Soriano: .299 (WTF? I didn't think it was that low!)

OBP is one of many tools to measure a player's worth. Here is another measure 2011 SLG:
Barney: .359
Soriano: .529

Having a high OBP is always a good thing, and my preference would be to load the team with guys with high OBP. However, it isn't the only necessary skill, and guys that can hit for power have value even if their OBP is really, really low.

 

[dabynsky]

2011 OBP:
Barney: .321
Soriano: .299
NL Average OBP: .319
MLB Average OBP: .320

So he's average, not terrible at getting on.

When your skill offensively as a table-setter is suppose to be getting on base, .320 is terrible.

 

[nwfisch]

So your argument is that because Pujols is a beast, Soto wasn't? That is a terrible argument.

No that's the only that needs to be said. Pujols has been the best hitter for the last decade. Soto had 2 decent years and 2 crappy years.

Soriano is a good left fielder. There are some really shitty LFers, such as Bay, Ibanez, Braun, Pierre.

:lmao:
Braun is NOT a shitty LF. He can hit a lot more than Soriano can dream of. He's not the best fielder, but his bat more than makes up for it.

You have posted literally nothing to say that he isn't. He has plus range, a plus arm, and normally his errors are what kills him, however if you look, he's only made 4 errors this year.

Soriano missed 3 weeks this season. It's like saying Blake Dewitt has 0 errors in the outfield, so therefore he is a good LF

When have I ever said that Fielder would solve all of our problems?

We can contend with Fielder and another piece. :crazydance: :crazydance:

We have a lot of above average players on this team.

 

[Jntg4]

When your skill offensively as a table-setter is suppose to be getting on base, .320 is terrible.

*.321

And does he bat himself second? Or does Mike Quade?

 

[Rice Cube]

*.321

And does he bat himself second? Or does Mike Quade?

It's a Quade fail to put a #8 or #9 hitter in the #2 spot.

 

[Jntg4]

I don't think he is a good fielder for LF. Just because there are other bad fielders playing LF doesn't mean Soriano is good. I say that based upon watching him play. He was always a guy that relied on athleticism more than instincts and not that a lot of that athleticism is gone he looks really bad out there.

Stats also don't paint a pretty picture. UZR of 0.8 is really pretty bad. There are worst ones out there, but he isn't good at fielding. His 4 errors isn't exactly great either with only Juan Pierre having more amongst LFs.

OBP is one of many tools to measure a player's worth. Here is another measure 2011 SLG:
Barney: .359
Soriano: .529

Having a high OBP is always a good thing, and my preference would be to load the team with guys with high OBP. However, it isn't the only necessary skill, and guys that can hit for power have value even if their OBP is really, really low.

Except what CO was saying that you can't defend someone with a .320 OBP, and I showed that that was average, I wasn't eluding slugging as a factor, because it wasn't a factor in that scenario as he only mentioned the OBP.

 

[dabynsky]

*.321

And does he bat himself second? Or does Mike Quade?

No but he doesn't offer any other offensive value. He has no power as was shown early. And if you can't get on base at an above average rate and you have below average power, that makes you a below average offensive player.