Garza isn't as bad as you think

[Jntg4]

Well bravo on missing the entire point. Seems to be a theme for you. The point is, if you're evaluating a player for a certain thing, why are you going to use all the variables?

You evaluate a player on doing their job. You don't base how good they are off of one stat. Having a high OBP doesn't mean you are great, nor do having a good FIP make you a great pitcher.

 

[Captain Obvious]

You evaluate a player on doing their job. You don't base how good they are off of one stat. Having a high OBP doesn't mean you are great, nor do having a good FIP make you a great pitcher.

Who EVER said that? You and Dewey sure like to make things up.

You nor Dewey has given a better stat than FIP. It's excellent for a quick reference(ERA isn't). However, I'm not trying to say that it or any stat should be used solo.

 

[EnjoyYourTiger]

How's about we don't talk about stats and just focus on the qualitative data. Like how the Cubs suck. We don't need acronyms that I have no idea wtf they stand for/ mean to say that.

/thread.

 

[AddisonStation]

Having a high OBP may not mean you're great but it does mean you are contributing something.

 

[DewsSox79]

Well bravo on missing the entire point. Seems to be a theme for you. The point is, if you're evaluating a player for a certain thing, why are you going to use all the variables?

What?! you had no point in that last post. zero. you are back tracking now to try to not look so stupid, but you failed. your last post was one of the dumbest, if not THE dumbest post you have posted since you have been a member here. Debating with someone who is confused and or is a complete apologist/homer is one thing, but someone who makes a statement like that is just plain stupid. I usually give you the benefit of the doubt and try to realize i am dealing with an absolute homer, but now I know that isnt the case.

So why use all the variables? because ALL the variables are > than just xFIP and FIP alone. The more variables you have, the better gauge on talent. This isnt rocket science. How do you not understand that the more variables you can compile the better understanding you will have of a player. but hey, lets just stand by a flawed sabermetric and use that as the only proof.

Either you are Special person or you just like the attention.

Who EVER said that? You and Dewey sure like to make things up.

You nor Dewey has given a better stat than FIP. It's excellent for a quick reference(ERA isn't). However, I'm not trying to say that it or any stat should be used solo.

Oh my god.

What dont you understand?

Using ALL Variables. ERA, WHIP, xFIP, FIP, some now with SIERA, BABIP etc CAN all be used, not just one!

I have stated this many times in many threads, but it seems like you just dont get it.

How's about we don't talk about stats and just focus on the qualitative data. Like how the Cubs suck. We don't need acronyms that I have no idea wtf they stand for/ mean to say that.

/thread.

You are in a better place not knowing any of these acronyms.

 

[poodski]

Fact: A statistic does not have flaws.

So when we talk about sabermetrics, we should NOT be using the word STATISTIC along side it. I do that out of habit and I should probably stop.

Well in that case every sabermetric stat is not flawed.

They do precisely what they say they are. Just like AVG and OBP. I havent read the rest of this thread, but this post kinda stuck out on page 3 (I have 40 per page) so I had to post it.

Its a busy day I plan to go through the rest of the thread, but this post really stuck out to me right off the bat.

When bringing up the flaws in sabermetric stat its because one "stat" doesn't show the whole picture..... not that there are flaws in its process.

 

[poodski]

How's about we don't talk about stats and just focus on the qualitative data. Like how the Cubs suck. We don't need acronyms that I have no idea wtf they stand for/ mean to say that.

/thread.

If it makes you feel better the Cubs have been the worst team in the NL according to SRS.

 

[poodski]

but it also takes solid contact pitchers allow completely out of the equation, which is why I don't like it.

Can you show that pitchers can actually control how well the hitter makes contact with the ball and how often it lands for a hit in play?

 

[poodski]

Batter gets solid contact on a terrible pitch, a sinker that stayed up and didn't break) and it hits the Green Monster. is that the outfielder's fault he didn't catch it when it was impossible to, or the pitcher's fault that he left it up in the zone?

Pitcher throws a great pitch that is a dribbler to the 2nd baseman who makes an easy play.

Is that due to the 2B being a great defender?

It works both ways. FIP simply balances them out. Trust me a lot more time was put into this than you can probably ever imagine.

 

[poodski]

Again, the use of the word statistic is used incorrectly, it is a fact that projections, what ifs, Coulda woulda shoulda are not considered what I learned in school as a statistic which was my minor.

They are not 100% known to be true, that is why they cannot be called statistics.

They aren't really use for predictors, they are just a "better indicator of future performance than ERA is".

When ZiPS or CHONE or PECOTA put out predictions they don't just use FIP or xFIP or tRA or anything like that. Its a mix of a whole bunch of things.

FIP simply shows what his ERA should be given a neutral defense. It is very much a stat because it shows exactly what it is trying to show.

tERA and tRA are better indicators of actual performance, but are MUCH MUCH MUCH more complicated. SIERA is also really good, but you have to pay money to see it.

 

[poodski]

Are those Homers hit always the pitchers fault? No, but they count in FIP.

RedBalcony > Home Run off Canseco`s Head

YouTube - Curtis Granderson Inside The Park Homerun

etc.

So HR shouldn't count then either I presume? The pitcher couldn't control either of the two I posted. :shrug:

Ok so you posted two RARE occurrences. Those all even out over time, thats the point of sabermetric stats, and that's why a person's views or memory makes other stats poor.

Kinda like with defense, everyone points out when Soriano makes an awful play but don't remember when he made a great one the other night.

 

[poodski]

So what's your point?

Dew, how can you just use the "known" facts to evaluate a player?

To be fair thats what all of the basic sabermetric stats do (FIP, wOBA, BABIP). I mean all that they do is make them into a more readable overall stat.

The slash line very well could be the best way to judge a player overall, but it does not give the whole picture. I mean FIP is "basically" 3 stats (and one thats a bit tougher to find) but thats all it is. It makes perfectly good sense when generally thinking about it because if I told you a pitcher didn't walk many, struck out a bunch, and didnt give up any home runs you would say oh sounds like Cliff Lee.

All wOBA does is give a specific run amount to each individual outcome from the PA. Then it rates it in accordance to OBP.

For pitchers sadly there isn't really a quote unquote great stat to show how good they really are. FIP though does do a pretty good job, but stats like tRA and SIERA are honestly better, but again are not nearly as easy to come across.

For hitters WAR is good enough overall to use, though I wish they would tweak it from year to year based on the average player per position. We have the tools to do that and we should.

Regardless once hit F/X comes out the whole landscape is going to change.

 

[DewsSox79]

They aren't really use for predictors, they are just a "better indicator of future performance than ERA is".

When ZiPS or CHONE or PECOTA put out predictions they don't just use FIP or xFIP or tRA or anything like that. Its a mix of a whole bunch of things.

FIP simply shows what his ERA should be given a neutral defense. It is very much a stat because it shows exactly what it is trying to show.

tERA and tRA are better indicators of actual performance, but are MUCH MUCH MUCH more complicated. SIERA is also really good, but you have to pay money to see it.

but again, it isnt variables during the game that are known to be true and or known to be false. that is a major major hole in the actual metric. so to base all of your opinions (not saying you) in general off of FIP is plain stupid.

SIERA is FTW. Love it. and yes you have to pay. Im sure that will change though. I had a smoke with a scout last year, asked him a lot of questions as he was actually not pissed I was bothering him, he specifically mentioned SIERA and how accurate it is, and also said that film and in game scouting still is the best method to evaluate talent. this coming from a PRO.

I respect your opinions POODSKI, and Addison as well since you guys are pretty open minded to this debate.

 

[poodski]

but again, it isnt variables during the game that are known to be true and or known to be false. that is a major major hole in the actual metric.

I dont know if I would say major holes. It has holes, but it still does a much much better job than more basic stats like ERA and WHIP. Is Garza the best pitcher thus far of 2009? Eh I dont know, but he is better than his 3.98 ERA suggests that I am perfectly comfortable with saying. I would like to see a more complex version of FIP that included LD%, GB% and FB%. That would be something I would like to see done, and honestly I would think it could be something I could do.

We know how much a LD lands for a hit and we know how often it is a double/triple. Same with the others. hmmmmmmmm. Wonder why no one has done this. I am sure it could be done to figure out exactly how much a LD is worth runs wise. Though the reason they don't do this is because a pitcher "doesn't have control over that" and FIP is more for showing how they have done at the things they control. Still an advanced FIP would show more accurately how they have pitched, and could be a semi mix from FIP to tRA.

so to base all of your opinions (not saying you) in general off of FIP is plain stupid.

This I completely agree with, but to be honest its no different than what man has done for decades and decades basing players solely off their ERA or win totals.

SIERA is FTW. Love it. and yes you have to pay. Im sure that will change though. I had a smoke with a scout last year, asked him a lot of questions as he was actually not pissed I was bothering him, he specifically mentioned SIERA and how accurate it is,

That's pretty cool and I am sure that some team like the Red Sox, A's or Mariners has their own stat about pitchers that they would never reveal to the public that very well could be better than anything we know about.

and also said that film and in game scouting still is the best method to evaluate talent. this coming from a PRO.

Eh. That could just be his opinion I am not sure how much I believe that. I mean hell Beane drafted Swisher just by basically looking at his stat line. He wasnt really a highly touted prospect. Same with Youkilis, though Youk is a bit different. I do believe scouting is important but I don't know if its the best method to evaluate talent. What team was he from though if you don't mind me asking. He could be from a highly involved scouting team, rather than a numbers team.

I respect your opinions POODSKI, and Addison as well since you guys are pretty open minded to this debate.

Thanks...... you are alright as well....

I do think that is a big problem. As much as people in the SABR community talk about how the Joe Morgan's of the world don't want to listen neither do the SABR people. I used to be like this but now I try more to explain myself a little clearer rather than sticking my fingers in my ears and yelling "LALALALALALALA I CAN"T HEAR YOU!!!"

 

[DewsSox79]

I dont know if I would say major holes. It has holes, but it still does a much much better job than more basic stats like ERA and WHIP. Is Garza the best pitcher thus far of 2009? Eh I dont know, but he is better than his 3.98 ERA suggests that I am perfectly comfortable with saying. I would like to see a more complex version of FIP that included LD%, GB% and FB%. That would be something I would like to see done, and honestly I would think it could be something I could do.

We know how much a LD lands for a hit and we know how often it is a double/triple. Same with the others. hmmmmmmmm. Wonder why no one has done this. I am sure it could be done to figure out exactly how much a LD is worth runs wise. Though the reason they don't do this is because a pitcher "doesn't have control over that" and FIP is more for showing how they have done at the things they control. Still an advanced FIP would show more accurately how they have pitched, and could be a semi mix from FIP to tRA.



This I completely agree with, but to be honest its no different than what man has done for decades and decades basing players solely off their ERA or win totals.



That's pretty cool and I am sure that some team like the Red Sox, A's or Mariners has their own stat about pitchers that they would never reveal to the public that very well could be better than anything we know about.



Eh. That could just be his opinion I am not sure how much I believe that. I mean hell Beane drafted Swisher just by basically looking at his stat line. He wasnt really a highly touted prospect. Same with Youkilis, though Youk is a bit different. I do believe scouting is important but I don't know if its the best method to evaluate talent. What team was he from though if you don't mind me asking. He could be from a highly involved scouting team, rather than a numbers team.



Thanks...... you are alright as well....

I do think that is a big problem. As much as people in the SABR community talk about how the Joe Morgan's of the world don't want to listen neither do the SABR people. I used to be like this but now I try more to explain myself a little clearer rather than sticking my fingers in my ears and yelling "LALALALALALALA I CAN"T HEAR YOU!!!"

:clap::clap:

 

[Captain Obvious]

but again, it isnt variables during the game that are known to be true and or known to be false. that is a major major hole in the actual metric. so to base all of your opinions (not saying you) in general off of FIP is plain stupid.

SIERA is FTW. Love it. and yes you have to pay. Im sure that will change though. I had a smoke with a scout last year, asked him a lot of questions as he was actually not pissed I was bothering him, he specifically mentioned SIERA and how accurate it is, and also said that film and in game scouting still is the best method to evaluate talent. this coming from a PRO.

I respect your opinions POODSKI, and Addison as well since you guys are pretty open minded to this debate.

Ummm... where have I or anyone in this thread used just FIP?

And I can see things very openly, but when you go and call someone a Special person for cherry picking stats, when they use 7 stats, it's going to be hard to have anyone take you seriously.

 

[DewsSox79]

Ummm... where have I or anyone in this thread used just FIP?

And I can see things very openly, but when you go and call someone a Special person for cherry picking stats, when they use 7 stats, it's going to be hard to have anyone take you seriously.

All of the normal conversations have come with myself, and other members here, even the ones that like FIP. Just not the members like yourself, that are complete apologists and make excuses for everything.

now lets here from you, what would you use to evaluate a pitcher. as you would say in your 12 year old voice "im dying to hear this"

 

[Captain Obvious]

All of the normal conversations have come with myself, and other members here, even the ones that like FIP. Just not the members like yourself, that are complete apologists and make excuses for everything.

now lets here from you, what would you use to evaluate a pitcher. as you would say in your 12 year old voice "im dying to hear this"

I look at their FIP, then their K, BB, HR rates, the xFIP, then BABIP and LD, GB, and FB%'s. Then I see how that compares to their ERA. I'm working on learning more about tERA and FIP- and xFIP-, but I only have so much time.

It's not hard to conduct yourself in a decent manner. I'm 16 and I can do it. You're 31, it shouldn't be a problem for you.

 

[Jntg4]

I look at their FIP, then their K, BB, HR rates, the xFIP, then BABIP and LD, GB, and FB%'s. Then I see how that compares to their ERA. I'm working on learning more about tERA and FIP- and xFIP-, but I only have so much time.

It's not hard to conduct yourself in a decent manner. I'm 16 and I can do it. You're 31, it shouldn't be a problem for you.

:rofl::rofl::rofl:

This guy serious?

:umad:

"I'm dying to [see] this"!

 

[Captain Obvious]

:rofl::rofl::rofl:

This guy serious?

:umad:

"I'm dying to [see] this"!

Have you actually added anything to this thread? Or any thread for that matter.