Hail Szczur: Official Cubs Prospects and Off-season Leagues Thread

[Jntg4]

Top Prospects

Here are my Cubs Top 9 Prospects, you can view 10-20 at WSD, but at that point they are all just about interchangeable anyway, so it doesn't matter much.
# Pos. Name (Last Roster On)
1. SS-3B Javier Baez (Mesa Solar Sox)
2. OF Jorge Soler (Peoria Chiefs)
3. OF Albert Almora (Boise Hawks)
4. RHP Arodys Vizcaino (60-Day Disabled List)
5. OF Brett Jackson (Chicago Cubs)
6. 3B Christian Villanueva (Daytona Cubs)
7. 1B Daniel Vogelbach (Boise Hawks)
8. OF Matthew Szczur (Mesa Solar Sox)
9. 3B Josh Vitters (Chicago Cubs)

I know BA likes Almora over Soler, but I don't quite agree at this point. Vogelbach was originally lower, but it is hard to overlook his offense just because he plays poor defense, he can be a valuable trade chip or the bright side to the NL eventually adding a DH if it ever happens. Szczur fell quite a bit.

 

[Jntg4]

One "miss" on my part was Arismendy Alcantara, I'll be throwing him into the (full) list now, so we have a Top 21.

 

[Jntg4]

No thoughts?

 

[Rice Cube]

It's football season and the postseason is going on. Give them time.

 

[dabynsky]

Concepcion doesn't belong on the list. There are far more interesting prospects to list then him. Most of the other rankings make sense and really depend on what you value in a prospect (ceiling, likelihood of reaching ceiling, level of competition, age, etc.). I think Alcantara is getting really overrated by some myself, but I won't quibble.

 

[Rice Cube]

Concepcion is basically what happens when you throw $500 on black and it lands on double zero :lol: He might still be useful but I highly doubt it.

 

[dabynsky]

Concepcion is basically what happens when you throw $500 on black and it lands on double zero :lol: He might still be useful but I highly doubt it.

Exactly. I wouldn't completely write him off since he was adjusting to a new country and had mono and all the other various excuses, but in a system as deep as the Cubs he shouldn't be listed in the top 30 prospects.

 

[Rice Cube]

Hayden Simpson also had mono. That disease is a career-killer.

 

[Jntg4]

I was basing his inclusion based upon how high his floor was supposed to be... if he recovers from mono, his potential may be lower than some, but he also may have a better chance of being something along the line.

If you don't agree with him at the bottom, who would you add? I believe Watkins should be in there for sure, but didn't find room for him.

 

[Rice Cube]

I thought Logan Watkins was the Cubs' minor league position player of the year.

 

[dabynsky]

I was basing his inclusion based upon how high his floor was supposed to be... if he recovers from mono, his potential may be lower than some, but he also may have a better chance of being something along the line.

If you don't agree with him at the bottom, who would you add? I believe Watkins should be in there for sure, but didn't find room for him.

I would have a number of position players ahead of Concepcion at this point. Watkins would merit some talk I would think given his production, age, and level. I like DeVoss a lot myself, but scouts are pretty down on him. And given that he is a college guy that has used an advanced eye with low power to get a high OBP in the low minors. I guess I can see him being off the list until he puts up numbers in AA. Guys that I would think should be higher due to ceiling are the overslot guys from last draft like Dunston and Gretzsky. If I wanted low upside/high floor arms I would think guys like Brooks Raley, Chris Rusin and Dallas Beeler would rank higher than Concepcion at this point given the higher levels they've reached. I think just about any of the other starters in Peoria should be higher than Concepcion at this point, especially Ben Wells though I like Peralta a fair bit. Tony Zych I think warrants a little discussion for the outside of the top 20 even with just being a reliever. High 90s heat with a developing slider is always a nice combination. Just some thoughts.

 

[dabynsky]

I thought Logan Watkins was the Cubs' minor league position player of the year.

Brian LaHair and Jeff Beleviau won it last year. It isn't exactly a measure of who is the best prospect, but yes Watkins did win it.

 

[Jntg4]

Good insight Dabs, usually I cut it of a lot earlier before we get into this sketchy territory

 

[Kleats]

Some of these guys need to get over the hump - BA's that improve 30-50 points and ERA's that drop by .5 or 1.00 in some cases . Then and only then might we really have something . But till then , most of these guys are avg to below avg prospects imo .

Not saying it can't / won't happen .

 

[Jntg4]

Some of these guys need to get over the hump - BA's that improve 30-50 points and ERA's that drop by .5 or 1.00 in some cases . Then and only then might we really have something . But till then , most of these guys are avg to below avg prospects imo .

Not saying it can't / won't happen .

It's actually a really good farm system, probably around #6-9 in MLB now. 7 of those guys were Top 100's last year, and another was named 50th best offensive prospect in baseball recently by Sickels.

 

[dabynsky]

I am not sure I would give the system top 10 billing yet. Kleats has a point if what he is getting at is a lack of impact prospects because that still is the case. It has been improved by leaps and bounds with the number of guys that have top 100 potential (Almora, Soler, Vizcaino, Villanueva). But at the same token jntg is right that the system is deep and there a lot of prospects that have flaws but are legitimate prospects. I think it was John Callis that mentioned prior to all the additions that the Cubs might have the best prospects in the 15-30 range. It is really deep in guys with upside.

 

[Jntg4]

League Top 20s

1. Javier Baez (Midwest League)
2. Albert Almora (Arizona League)
2. Dan Vogelbach (Northwest League)
4. Jorge Soler (Arizona League)
5. Anthony Rizzo (Pacific Coast League)
6. Marco Hernandez (Northwest League)
7. Jeimer Candelario (Northwest League)
9. Gioskar Amaya (Northwest League)
14. Dan Vogelbach (Arizona League)
15. Brett Jackson (Pacific Coast League)
15. Stephen Bruno (Northwest League)
16. Trey Martin (Northwest League)
17. Tayler Scott (Northwest League)
That's all for the Cubs organization, Szczur the glaring omission.

Now, the final one came out today, the Independent Leagues Top 20, and I need some CBA clarification here. Is there a spending limit on non-drafted free agents/indy leaguers?

Anyway, hopefully we can snag a few of these guys:
1. LHP Kevin Gelinas, Amarillo Sox, North American League
2. RHP Chris Cox, Quebec I-don't-remember-the-name-off-the-top-of-my-heads, Canadian American Association
3. RHP Jonathan Kountis, Lake Erie Crushers, Frontier League
4. SS A.J. Nunziato, Washington Wild Things, Frontier League
5. LHP Alfonso Yevoli, Washington Wild Things, Frontier League
6. OF Jason Martin, Abilene Prairie Dogs, North American League (BA listed Abilene in the Frontier League, but we know better)
7. OF Buddy Sosnoskie, Fargo-Moorhead RedHawks, American Association
8. RHP Robert Coe, St. Paul Saints, American Association
9. RHP James Hoyt, Wichita Wingnuts, American Association, and Edinburg Roadrunners, North American League
10. RHP Brandon Sinnery, London Rippers (listed a Can-Am team, but believe they meant Frontier League)
11-20, see here: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2012/2614194.html They fucked up a bit, United League doesn't even exist anymore, so if you need any help with teams, ask me. Scouting reports for Top 10 are up there too.

 

[Kleats]

It's actually a really good farm system, probably around #6-9 in MLB now. 7 of those guys were Top 100's last year, and another was named 50th best offensive prospect in baseball recently by Sickels.

I'm as big a Cubs fan as exists on Earth . I'm really really hoping many of these guys pan out . But until I see real results up in The Show , I always remain skeptical . It's just the way 'things' have made me .

Some of these guys look like the can become studs , but with baseball players , the skills have to be so honed + so sharp that some guys ( who actually have the talent ) never quite get that last 15% of refinement necessary to go from avg to even good . And the great ones are the 1%ers .

We'll see what happens.

 

[dabynsky]

I'm as big a Cubs fan as exists on Earth . I'm really really hoping many of these guys pan out . But until I see real results up in The Show , I always remain skeptical . It's just the way 'things' have made me .

Some of these guys look like the can become studs , but with baseball players , the skills have to be so honed + so sharp that some guys ( who actually have the talent ) never quite get that last 15% of refinement necessary to go from avg to even good . And the great ones are the 1%ers .

We'll see what happens.

I understand the skepticism. The odds of the big 3 all being stars is pretty remote. The odds of all 3 even being league average starters isn't that great, but at the same time they are big time prospects in baseball. Baez is shooting up the prospect lists right now, and very well could be a top 10 prospect by the end of next year. There is a middle ground between all prospects will fail and all prospects will succeed. And in comparison to other systems the Cubs have a rapidly improving system in just about every facet.

 

[Rice Cube]

The key is depth. You have to get enough numbers of guys who have the right makeup and the right tools to have the potential to succeed. Not all of them will. Out of the 1200-ish players drafted each year and the countless others signed as amateur free agents funneling in to the minors that already have hundreds more guys fighting for their futures, plus the veterans already holding down spots in MLB, there are only about 500 spots open on all 30 MLB clubs (or less) for them to try to get. It's not an easy path and that's why the failure rate is so high. The goal is to fail slightly less than the other guys.