If I made a mock draft for what Poles got in this draft...

[Warrior Spirit]

I already told how I came up with that value ie based on the Packers offer.



However you said we were not talking about the Packers offer but my comment that Poles accepted Moore in lieu of a first round pick. That is a separate argument per you so not sure why you are now trying to bring up the 1050 which was from the Packers offer you yourself said was not the topic. You are lost.

Packers offer gives no value as no transaction happened. Rumor. Make believe. Something a fanboy just pulls out his ass when he has nothing of essence. So forget that.

Now, you say Carolina gave him in lieu of a 1st round pick, which would have to be a future first rounder as they had no other to give after swapping 1 and 9 with Bears. In essence you debunked your own outlandish 1050 claim when, after having zero success finding any other source claiming the same, you switched it up and said he was given in lieu of a general 1st round pick..........which would have to be a '24 or '25 pick.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

it is real because it was a real offer that was rejected, how are you not understanding this?

Packers where 3-5 when they offered their 1st round pick.. How much was that pic worth? well as a GM you are going to look at the packers and think.. if they continue down the road they are on that is going to be a higher 1st round pick so maybe 1300 range.. or they can turn it around and win more games (like what they did) and the pic would be worth 1050 range

Bottom line is the Packers valued Moore in the 1300-1050 range because they offered a Pic that would fall in that range.. The Panthers value Moore higher then the 1300-1050 range because they rejected the offer.

Its not complicated

It's not real cause it never happened. It's also obviously as idiotic as it gets, cause nobody knew what # the pick would be halfway through the season. It's like spinning a wheel and then assigning the value it lands on to a player. Only the dumbest of the dumb would go along with such idiotic nonsense.

The only real trade that happened is with Carolina. And Remy has now declared a new value for Moore, surmising he was given in lieu of a future 1st round pick.

 

[TezMaKai]

Packers offer gives no value as no transaction happened. Rumor. Make believe. Something a fanboy just pulls out his ass when he has nothing of essence. So forget that.

Now, you say Carolina gave him in lieu of a 1st round pick, which would have to be a future first rounder as they had no other to give after swapping 1 and 9 with Bears. In essence you debunked your own outlandish 1050 claim when, after having zero success finding any other source claiming the same, you switched it up and said he was given in lieu of a general 1st round pick..........which would have to be a '24 or '25 pick.

Oh my gosh, you are a stupid fuck.

 

[vabearsfan15]

I personally don't give a shit about draft pick value charts. Would you rather have selected Will Anderson 1st overall or have DJ Moore, Darnell Wright, Tyrique Stevenson, a 2024 1st and a 2025 2nd? No brainer to me considering we needed a #1 wide receiver more than any other position and got one when there was really no other way to acquire one. No one else was offering that.

I don't disagree that it made sense for us. You are right in that there was no other way we were acquiring a #1 receiver, outside of maybe trading for a Jerry Juedy or Deandre Hopkins who aren't as superior options as DJ Moore. My whole point, was that when trying to quantify Moore's worth in terms of point value, its mainly subjecctive for each side. There were probably multiple deals better than sticking at #1 and taking Will Anderson. But with multiple competing offers on the table you have to compare each in terms of value to get the best outcome. Was getting around par value the best we could do? Afterall, it was said that all the Panther's GM did differently in going from #1 to #2 was throw in an extra 2nd which ended up being for 2025.

 

[remydat]

You keep saying you "know" something that you do not.

You do not know how the Panther's valued the 1st round pick they were offered by GB. It was a 1st sure. But the value changes dramatically depending on how they exactly value the Packers 1st round pick.

You do not know which teams offered 3 firsts. You do not know which 1st round picks they offered. You do not know which year first round picks were offered.

My point is that each variable makes a difference. You claim an exact 1050 point value, the 15th overall pick value, in your calculations to say the Bears won the trade. Yet if you change this variable to 18th overall pick or 20th, etc, then it dramatically changes the value to where we lose the trade.

1. I don't need to know how the Packers valued the first round pick. It is irrelevant. The only thing that is relevant is whether my valuation is within the range of likely outcomes of that pick and the answer is yes because at the time they had the 7th worst record so finishing 15th was not an unlikely outcome.

2. Again I don't need to know which team offered 3 firsts. All I need to know is that 3 firsts were offered. That means the Bears accepting Moore and 2 firsts was clearly because they valued Moore as a first

3. I do not need to know what year the first round picks. Future first round picks only get discounted because the player isn't available the upcoming year. Moore is available so there is no discounting to apply. He is valued as a current first round pick.

Like your logic doesn't even make sense. I audit valuations for a living and there are always unknown variables and there are always judgments that have to be made. The question are whether those judgments are reasonable given the circumstances and it is entirely reasonable to value Moore similarly to similar players, it is reasonable to note his contract is much cheaper than comparable WRs, it is reasonable to use other offers made for the player, and it is reasonable to value that trade offer based on likely outcomes. This is exactly how valuations work. Are you confused in thinking valuations only occur when everything is known?

I don't disagree that it made sense for us. You are right in that there was no other way we were acquiring a #1 receiver, outside of maybe trading for a Jerry Juedy or Deandre Hopkins who aren't as superior options as DJ Moore. My whole point, was that when trying to quantify Moore's worth in terms of point value, its mainly subjecctive for each side. There were probably multiple deals better than sticking at #1 and taking Will Anderson. But with multiple competing offers on the table you have to compare each in terms of value to get the best outcome. Was getting around par value the best we could do? Afterall, it was said that all the Panther's GM did differently in going from #1 to #2 was throw in an extra 2nd which ended up being for 2025.

If you actually paid attention to what was said, it was said that they underpaid to go from 2 to 1 but overpaid for everything else

"In my case, I just listen, I just do numbers, right? I can do value," Tepper said. "I pointed out, in this particular case, I said it will be the cheapest trade-up in the history of the world from two to one, the last increment. Now, it might have been that we were overpaying for everything else."

 

[remydat]

Packers offer gives no value as no transaction happened. Rumor. Make believe. Something a fanboy just pulls out his ass when he has nothing of essence. So forget that.

Now, you say Carolina gave him in lieu of a 1st round pick, which would have to be a future first rounder as they had no other to give after swapping 1 and 9 with Bears. In essence you debunked your own outlandish 1050 claim when, after having zero success finding any other source claiming the same, you switched it up and said he was given in lieu of a general 1st round pick..........which would have to be a '24 or '25 pick.

Again it is clear you don't understand how valuations work. The Packers offer would be known as a bid price which is considered the best indication of fair value.

Yes and he would be considered to have more value than a 24 or 25 pick because of the concept of time value of money. The reason those picks are discounted is because the player you acquire from those picks can't play for you for 1 or 2 years. Since Moore is available to play for you in 2023, his value is that of a current year pick not a future pick.

Again it seems you don't really understand valuation principles.

 

[dbldrew]

It's not real cause it never happened. It's also obviously as idiotic as it gets, cause nobody knew what # the pick would be halfway through the season. It's like spinning a wheel and then assigning the value it lands on to a player. Only the dumbest of the dumb would go along with such idiotic nonsense.

The only real trade that happened is with Carolina. And Remy has now declared a new value for Moore, surmising he was given in lieu of a future 1st round pick.

it did happen, what are you talking about? yes they didnt know exactly what the pic was worth but they new the range the pick was worth.
Its no different then any other pic thats traded, you dont know exactly what the pic will be for any future pic traded. So this is a very strange position you are taking

 

[Nelly]

I don't disagree that it made sense for us. You are right in that there was no other way we were acquiring a #1 receiver, outside of maybe trading for a Jerry Juedy or Deandre Hopkins who aren't as superior options as DJ Moore. My whole point, was that when trying to quantify Moore's worth in terms of point value, its mainly subjecctive for each side.

Remy is making a pretty good case for how to quantify it. Would there be some teams willing to trade a mid-round draft pick for a legit #1 wide receiver? Yep, no doubt in my mind and the Packers actually did offer that. There's not much debate left there.

There were probably multiple deals better than sticking at #1 and taking Will Anderson. But with multiple competing offers on the table you have to compare each in terms of value to get the best outcome. Was getting around par value the best we could do? Afterall, it was said that all the Panther's GM did differently in going from #1 to #2 was throw in an extra 2nd which ended up being for 2025.

We know other teams were offering 3 1sts which was Carolina's preference but Poles held their feet to the fire. As i said, we needed a #1 receiver and got one in this deal which is much better for us in the short-term considering how we're looking to help Fields than having a 2025 1st rounder as well. Consider how affordable Moore's deal is compared to other receivers getting extensions this past year and beyond and it's even more of a good deal.

Beyond that, there's no reason to look at things like a point value vs. point value. The whole reason trades exist is because both teams feel like they're benefitting from the deal in some way. As i mentioned in my previous post, would you rather have Moore, Wright, Stevenson, a 2024 1st and a 2024 2nd or Will Anderson? Switch that up to something similar that doesn't include Moore but does include a 2025 1st. Doesn't reallty matter, the obvious choice is yes, i would rather have those deals instead of Bryce Young. A team starved for a franchise QB would feel differently, and no doubt the Panthers front office feels like they won the trade. Good for them, I hope it works out for them cause we/i have nothing to gain by their misfortune at this point.

 

[nvanprooyen]

This thread gave me a headache

 

[iueyedoc]

This thread gave me a headache

Would you rate it a top 15 headache?

 

[vabearsfan15]

1. I don't need to know how the Packers valued the first round pick. It is irrelevant. The only thing that is relevant is whether my valuation is within the range of likely outcomes of that pick and the answer is yes because at the time they had the 7th worst record so finishing 15th was not an unlikely outcome.

2. Again I don't need to know which team offered 3 firsts. All I need to know is that 3 firsts were offered. That means the Bears accepting Moore and 2 firsts was clearly because they valued Moore as a first

3. I do not need to know what year the first round picks. Future first round picks only get discounted because the player isn't available the upcoming year. Moore is available so there is no discounting to apply. He is valued as a current first round pick.

Like your logic doesn't even make sense. I audit valuations for a living and there are always unknown variables and there are always judgments that have to be made. The question are whether those judgments are reasonable given the circumstances and it is entirely reasonable to value Moore similarly to similar players, it is reasonable to note his contract is much cheaper than comparable WRs, it is reasonable to use other offers made for the player, and it is reasonable to value that trade offer based on likely outcomes. This is exactly how valuations work. Are you confused in thinking valuations only occur when everything is known?



If you actually paid attention to what was said, it was said that they underpaid to go from 2 to 1 but overpaid for everything else

"In my case, I just listen, I just do numbers, right? I can do value," Tepper said. "I pointed out, in this particular case, I said it will be the cheapest trade-up in the history of the world from two to one, the last increment. Now, it might have been that we were overpaying for everything else."

1. How both teams valued the 1st round pick was relevant at the time. If one team valued it like the first overall pick a deal may have been made. For example, if the Bears who were also 3-5 at the time offered a 1st round pick, do you think it would be valued as the 15th overall pick by carolina? Hell no!

Your "likely outcome" theory only worked out slightly and only because the team in question, the Packers, did not receive the player they were hoping to acquire that would have made a difference to their season. It's only convenient for you to use it.

2. You do need to know which team offered the firsts because it would illustrate what exact firsts were given. Not all first round picks are equal. The #1 pick and #31 pick are both first round picks but they are not equal. Knowing which team offered the picks give insight into which exact picks were offered and what the trade chart value, which you love so much, was saying.

3. Again, yes you do. In previous conversations you have firmly stated the difference between trade point value for picks that are in the future. This is widely kown. A 2025 1st round pick is not the same as a 2024 and especially a 2023 pick which would have specific known value since you know where the pick is being used. While I ultimately do think DJ Moore was worth a current first round pick, his availability this year doesn't mean he was worth a current first round pick. His talent and positional importance is why he is worth a current first round pick. Players are traded all the time for future first round picks and nothing else. For example, look at Deandre Swift trade which included 2025 future picks.

All the information isn't known to the public. That doesn't mean it wasn't known to the Bears and Panther's front offices. You are making judgements, but have presented your argument earlier in this thread and elsewhere like a calculated formula that can't be argued. Do I think your ultimate conclusion is far off? No. I think it was mostly a fair trade and the numbers valuations is close. But the way you got there isn't how the Bears and Panther's front office got there. You are filling the gaps more than you realize.


And my point about going from #2 to #1 was simply about leaving value on the table and potentially holding out for a better overall outcome. But rereading the article, I see I read that part wrong.

 

[vabearsfan15]

Remy is making a pretty good case for how to quantify it. Would there be some teams willing to trade a mid-round draft pick for a legit #1 wide receiver? Yep, no doubt in my mind and the Packers actually did offer that. There's not much debate left there.

I'm not arguing he wasn't worth a current mid round first. But the Packers did not offer a mid round first. They offered a 2023 first round pick whose exact value was not known at the time. The Packer's were also receiving an extra half of season of performance on Moore's contract at the time that pick was offered.

We know other teams were offering 3 1sts which was Carolina's preference but Poles held their feet to the fire. As i said, we needed a #1 receiver and got one in this deal which is much better for us in the short-term considering how we're looking to help Fields than having a 2025 1st rounder as well. Consider how affordable Moore's deal is compared to other receivers getting extensions this past year and beyond and it's even more of a good deal.

Beyond that, there's no reason to look at things like a point value vs. point value. The whole reason trades exist is because both teams feel like they're benefitting from the deal in some way. As i mentioned in my previous post, would you rather have Moore, Wright, Stevenson, a 2024 1st and a 2024 2nd or Will Anderson? Switch that up to something similar that doesn't include Moore but does include a 2025 1st. Doesn't reallty matter, the obvious choice is yes, i would rather have those deals instead of Bryce Young. A team starved for a franchise QB would feel differently, and no doubt the Panthers front office feels like they won the trade. Good for them, I hope it works out for them cause we/i have nothing to gain by their misfortune at this point.

I agree that getting DJ Moore this offseason was in many ways invaluable to us and it is hard to put a point value on (though I do think the staff tries.) Field's needed an accomplished receiver and got one. There was no way of getting another one unless we traded for Jeudy or an aged veteran.

And Yes, I'm not arguing that no deal is better than the deals we were offered. Not even close. Everyone knew we were trading out. At the same time, that doesn't mean Poles deserves a parade as he is receiving from some fans. It was simply a bidding war. And depending how you quantify DJ Moore in point value, we received around par the value for the #1 pick. The value received did not exceed the chart value. So I don't give Poles extra credit for pulling off the trade. It was fair. But when you have multiple bidders at the table you hope for a bit better than par value.

I'd also argue we do have something to gain by Carolina's misfortune - higher draft picks.

 

[remydat]

1. How both teams valued the 1st round pick was relevant at the time. If one team valued it like the first overall pick a deal may have been made. For example, if the Bears who were also 3-5 at the time offered a 1st round pick, do you think it would be valued as the 15th overall pick by carolina? Hell no!

Your "likely outcome" theory only worked out slightly and only because the team in question, the Packers, did not receive the player they were hoping to acquire that would have made a difference to their season. It's only convenient for you to use it.

2. You do need to know which team offered the firsts because it would illustrate what exact firsts were given. Not all first round picks are equal. The #1 pick and #31 pick are both first round picks but they are not equal. Knowing which team offered the picks give insight into which exact picks were offered and what the trade chart value, which you love so much, was saying.

3. Again, yes you do. In previous conversations you have firmly stated the difference between trade point value for picks that are in the future. This is widely kown. A 2025 1st round pick is not the same as a 2024 and especially a 2023 pick which would have specific known value since you know where the pick is being used. While I ultimately do think DJ Moore was worth a current first round pick, his availability this year doesn't mean he was worth a current first round pick. His talent and positional importance is why he is worth a current first round pick. Players are traded all the time for future first round picks and nothing else. For example, look at Deandre Swift trade which included 2025 future picks.

All the information isn't known to the public. That doesn't mean it wasn't known to the Bears and Panther's front offices. You are making judgements, but have presented your argument earlier in this thread and elsewhere like a calculated formula that can't be argued. Do I think your ultimate conclusion is far off? No. I think it was mostly a fair trade and the numbers valuations is close. But the way you got there isn't how the Bears and Panther's front office got there. You are filling the gaps more than you realize.


And my point about going from #2 to #1 was simply about leaving value on the table and potentially holding out for a better overall outcome. But rereading the article, I see I read that part wrong.

1. I am not discussing it in the context of whether a deal could be made. I am discussing it in the context of what a 3rd party assessing the situation would say is a fair value to place on the pick and it is entirely fair to assign a 15th pick value on a pick offered by the 7th worst team in the NFL record wise.

2. I am saying I dont need to know the exact picks. We know the teams that were interested in trading up for a QB and they were also higher than or around the 15th pick. There isnt a team past the Vikes at 23 that would be looking to add a QB and we know it was rejected so Moore had to have a value higher than 23. And the reality is most likely was a team in the top 16. So you have to be real dense to pretend it was some team late in the first.

3. The distinction here is we already know the Pack was offering a current first and the Panthers refused so no he is not being valued as a future first. He is worth more than a future first.

All you are doing is saying it is a judgment which it is but you arent offering any alternative judgment that fits the info we know. You cant pretend Moore is valued at a future first when we already know the Pack offered a 2023 first.

 

[vabearsfan15]

1. I am not discussing it in the context of whether a deal could be made. I am discussing it in the context of what a 3rd party assessing the situation would say is a fair value to place on the pick and it is entirely fair to assign a 15th pick value on a pick offered by the 7th worst team in the NFL record wise.

2. I am saying I dont need to know the exact picks. We know the teams that were interested in trading up for a QB and they were also higher than or around the 15th pick. There isnt a team past the Vikes at 23 that would be looking to add a QB and we know it was rejected so Moore had to have a value higher than 23. And the reality is most likely was a team in the top 16. So you have to be real dense to pretend it was some team late in the first.

3. The distinction here is we already know the Pack was offering a current first and the Panthers refused so no he is not being valued as a future first. He is worth more than a future first.

All you are doing is saying it is a judgment which it is but you arent offering any alternative judgment that fits the info we know. You cant pretend Moore is valued at a future first when we already know the Pack offered a 2023 first.

1. The bolded part is the line of reasoning you keep repeating that I can 100% guarantee is not how how NFL teams valued Greenbay's 1st round pick. No one in their right mind would be betting against Greenbay missing the playoffs being only one game out of a wild card in week 8 with the addition of DJ Moore.

2. The reason it matters is because some teams had multiple 1st round picks. When you are comparing offers it makes a difference if a team offering three first round picks were offering two 2023 firsts or only one. Likeve said, there is a huge difference in known 2023 1st round picks and a random 1st rd pick in 2025.

3. The Packers did not offer a current 1st rd pick. They offered an unknown 2023 1st round pick in the middle of the 2022 season. You dont seem to notice the difference, yet are very precise about other matters

I've never argued that I think DJ Moore was worth only a future 1st rd pick. I think he was worth a current 1st. But how high of a 1st rounder is the matter of debate.

I lool at the known figures of the trade that have a perceived market value.

Bears
2023 1st round, 1st overall pick = 3,000 points

Panthers
2023 1st round, 9th overall pick = 1350
2024 1st round pick = 500 points
2025 2nd round pick = 210
DJ Moore = X
Total = 2,060 + X

3,000 = 2,060 + X
3,000 - 2,060 = X
940 Points = DJ Moore (X)

940 points is equivalent to the 17th overall pick. So, to me, it's up to each individual to consider if they think that's a good deal or not for DJ Moore. I think it's fair. That's why I think the overall trade is fair. But it's not clear one way or the other in my opinion.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

it did happen, what are you talking about? yes they didnt know exactly what the pic was worth but they new the range the pick was worth.
Its no different then any other pic thats traded, you dont know exactly what the pic will be for any future pic traded. So this is a very strange position you are taking

Holy shit @Spartan

@dbldrew is a legit idiot and he just made you look like shit with this post. You're literally wrong about everything.

 

[truthbedamned]

Once the vortex begins I just scroll on by. Multiple vortexes going on here

 

[remydat]

1. The bolded part is the line of reasoning you keep repeating that I can 100% guarantee is not how how NFL teams valued Greenbay's 1st round pick. No one in their right mind would be betting against Greenbay missing the playoffs being only one game out of a wild card in week 8 with the addition of DJ Moore.

2. The reason it matters is because some teams had multiple 1st round picks. When you are comparing offers it makes a difference if a team offering three first round picks were offering two 2023 firsts or only one. Likeve said, there is a huge difference in known 2023 1st round picks and a random 1st rd pick in 2025.

3. The Packers did not offer a current 1st rd pick. They offered an unknown 2023 1st round pick in the middle of the 2022 season. You dont seem to notice the difference, yet are very precise about other matters

I've never argued that I think DJ Moore was worth only a future 1st rd pick. I think he was worth a current 1st. But how high of a 1st rounder is the matter of debate.

I lool at the known figures of the trade that have a perceived market value.

Bears
2023 1st round, 1st overall pick = 3,000 points

Panthers
2023 1st round, 9th overall pick = 1350
2024 1st round pick = 500 points
2025 2nd round pick = 210
DJ Moore = X
Total = 2,060 + X

3,000 = 2,060 + X
3,000 - 2,060 = X
940 Points = DJ Moore (X)

940 points is equivalent to the 17th overall pick. So, to me, it's up to each individual to consider if they think that's a good deal or not for DJ Moore. I think it's fair. That's why I think the overall trade is fair. But it's not clear one way or the other in my opinion.

1. By no one in their right mind you mean you just made that up. They were 3-5 and finished 8-9. That is most certainly a reasonable posibility for them because they dug themselves a hole and Rodgers looked checked out.

2. But we know the team involved most likely was within the top half of the draft so we know it was likely a top 16 first.

3. It is a current first rounder because it was a pick in the upcoming draft. Do you honestly think Moore's value declined from a 2023 first round pick.

4. Your analysis excludes the 292 points that pick 61 is worth. So that is 2,352 points before Moore. So placing a 17th round pick value on him at 940 points doesnt really change anything that would still be 3,292 points or 292 points of excess value.

So again what is the point you are trying to achieve? There really is very little difference in the value you come up with and the value I came up with as I came up with 3,302 so literally 10 pts different as I had lower values on the 2024 1st and 2025 2nd round picks.

Imagine spending all this time quibbling with me for a difference in value of 10 points. Like Jesus, no one cares if we have minor differences in methodology if the end result is a 10 pt difference in our respective valuations. SMH!

 

[dbldrew]

Holy shit @Spartan

@dbldrew is a legit idiot and he just made you look like shit with this post. You're literally wrong about everything.

Professional idiot.. get your facts straight

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Professional idiot.. get your facts straight

Apologies.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

it did happen, what are you talking about? yes they didnt know exactly what the pic was worth but they new the range the pick was worth.
Its no different then any other pic thats traded, you dont know exactly what the pic will be for any future pic traded. So this is a very strange position you are taking

You're so far off base, not even sure what you're talking about anymore. "yes, they didnt know?" WTF? Hop back on the short bus and stop posting immediately . Transaction never happened, special fanboy. Thus it is nothing. Merely hearsay. A rumor. I don't know what's wrong with you people. You ain't right in the head.