IST: Chicago Cubs (1-1) at Colorado Rockies (2-0)

[Ari Bear]

Nice to see them break out the bats! :clap:

 

[beckdawg]

Fowler - 71 pitches 18 PAs(3.94 per)
Soler - 68 pitches 16 PAs(4.25 per)
Rizzo - 64 pitches 16 PAs(4 per)
Castro - 67 pitches 16 PAs(4.19 per)
Alcantara - 59 pitches 13 PAs(4.53 per)
Olt - 57 pitches 12 PAs(4.75 per)
La Stella - 30 pitches 6 PAs(5 per)
Coghlan - 37 pitches 12 PAs(3.08 per)
Szczur - 29 pitches 7 PAs(4.14 per)
Montero - 36 pitches 10 PAs(3.6 per)
Castillo - 10 pitches 4 PAs(2.5 per)
Ross - 12 pitches 3 PAs(4 per)
Herrera - 2 pitches 1 PAs(2 per)

As a reference point, 3.86 last season was top 25 players. Those players were Matt Carpenter(4.37), Christian Yelich(4.26), Jayson Werth(4.24), Luis Valbuena(4.17), Jimmy Rollins(4.15), Curtis Granderson(4.13), Lucas Duda(4.13), Seth Smith(4.08), Andrew McCutchen(4.07), Giancarlo Stanton(4.07), Ryan Howard(4.07), Adam LaRoche(4.04), Anthony Rizzo(4.02), Garrett Jones(4.02), Justin Upton(4.02), Freddie Freeman(3.99), Hunter Pence(3.97), Andthony Rendon(3.97), Jhonny Peralta(3.94), Jay Bruce(3.93), Jason Heyward(3.93), Marcell Ozuna(3.9), Jonathan Lucroy(3.89), Todd Frazier(3.87), Aaron Hill(3.86) and Miguel Montero(3.86).

Obviously it's an early sample size here but I think it's pretty encouraging having roughly 9 players at 4+. In particular, Olt(.167/.231/.417) and Alcantara(.000/.308/.000) while not having amazing numbers still have made pitchers work quite a bit to get them out. Last season Alcantara walked at a 5.7% clip. He's at an entirely unsustainable 30.8% right now. However, given the way he's seeing pitches presently it does lead me to believe his 10.9% 2013 AA walk rate and his roughly 10-11% in the DWL/ST is possibly legit. If it is then that's pretty huge. Fowler who's been one of the better lead off guys in the league the past few years has had a career 12.4%/22.2% walk/k rate. Alcantara was a 17-22.7% k rate guy in the minors. Fowler has a career on base of .365. Even if Alcantara doesn't quite get that high a .350 OBP would be pretty fantastic with his extra base power and plus plus speed. His K rate is going to have to come down(also at 30.8% right now) and ya know.... he has to get a hit.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Feel free man. I respect what he has to say, so I'm trying to be respectful about it. It's a subject I disagree with so much, I even suggested he not talk to me about it. Like I said before, if someone disagrees with you, you all of a sudden have an issue with them.

Beck can at least have a convo w/o being an idiot. I respect that, and tried to convey that to him. If you want to keep going about it, and being an idiot, feel free to tune me out dude. I won't be mad at ya! As it seems, it looks like I might be better off. :yep:

There you go personally attacking.You didn't seem to want a convo with Beckdawg either, let alone too many other people around here. You want to slurp and add some herp derp. What you haven't gotten in your head is that the people you think are clutch aren't clutch. They are simply very good hitters. Clutch makes a nice story, like a Freese-type World Series, but the good hitters hit well regardless of situation.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

LOL, I don't know any player in any sport that doesn't believe in pressure players. It's ridiculous to say so as well, imo. :smh:

I would certainly hope players believe in clutch hitting. You want your best guys to feel that they can turn or win a game for their team by performing in pressure situations. That's what makes a highly competitive athlete. The thing to remember though is what a player believes and what an objective analysis of the numbers show can be two very different things. If you try to combine the two mindsets you go into the statistics with a bias that skews the numbers to your personal beliefs. I have no desire to get into an argument over whether or not clutch hitting exists, just make sure that if you're trying to find out if it does that you leave the belief part out of your argument.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Fowler - 71 pitches 18 PAs(3.94 per)
Soler - 68 pitches 16 PAs(4.25 per)
Rizzo - 64 pitches 16 PAs(4 per)
Castro - 67 pitches 16 PAs(4.19 per)
Alcantara - 59 pitches 13 PAs(4.53 per)
Olt - 57 pitches 12 PAs(4.75 per)
La Stella - 30 pitches 6 PAs(5 per)
Coghlan - 37 pitches 12 PAs(3.08 per)
Szczur - 29 pitches 7 PAs(4.14 per)
Montero - 36 pitches 10 PAs(3.6 per)
Castillo - 10 pitches 4 PAs(2.5 per)
Ross - 12 pitches 3 PAs(4 per)
Herrera - 2 pitches 1 PAs(2 per)

As a reference point, 3.86 last season was top 25 players. Those players were Matt Carpenter(4.37), Christian Yelich(4.26), Jayson Werth(4.24), Luis Valbuena(4.17), Jimmy Rollins(4.15), Curtis Granderson(4.13), Lucas Duda(4.13), Seth Smith(4.08), Andrew McCutchen(4.07), Giancarlo Stanton(4.07), Ryan Howard(4.07), Adam LaRoche(4.04), Anthony Rizzo(4.02), Garrett Jones(4.02), Justin Upton(4.02), Freddie Freeman(3.99), Hunter Pence(3.97), Andthony Rendon(3.97), Jhonny Peralta(3.94), Jay Bruce(3.93), Jason Heyward(3.93), Marcell Ozuna(3.9), Jonathan Lucroy(3.89), Todd Frazier(3.87), Aaron Hill(3.86) and Miguel Montero(3.86).

Obviously it's an early sample size here but I think it's pretty encouraging having roughly 9 players at 4+. In particular, Olt(.167/.231/.417) and Alcantara(.000/.308/.000) while not having amazing numbers still have made pitchers work quite a bit to get them out. Last season Alcantara walked at a 5.7% clip. He's at an entirely unsustainable 30.8% right now. However, given the way he's seeing pitches presently it does lead me to believe his 10.9% 2013 AA walk rate and his roughly 10-11% in the DWL/ST is possibly legit. If it is then that's pretty huge. Fowler who's been one of the better lead off guys in the league the past few years has had a career 12.4%/22.2% walk/k rate. Alcantara was a 17-22.7% k rate guy in the minors. Fowler has a career on base of .365. Even if Alcantara doesn't quite get that high a .350 OBP would be pretty fantastic with his extra base power and plus plus speed. His K rate is going to have to come down(also at 30.8% right now) and ya know.... he has to get a hit.

Had to steal that, I love seeing those numbers.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/409147735894064/

 

[SilenceS]

Alcantara has had a rather interesting season so far numbers wise. He has a 27.3% walk rate which is astronomical. His K rate is 36.4% which is also fairly high. He also has a .000 BABIP. He's 0-4 when putting balls into play. Despite that he still has a .222 OBP because of the walks. To an extent he's doing the opposite of what Baez struggled with last year. He's seen 29.2% pitches in the strike zone. Looks like he's sort of just letting the pitchers walk him since they aren't really throwing him good stuff to hit. He's only swinging 37.5% of the time with 57.1% vs strikes and 29.4% vs balls.

I'm wondering if it wouldn't be worth while to move him up in the line up because honestly he's not really getting much to hit. Perhaps as he continues to prove he'll settle for the walk they will attack him more.

:lmao:

 

[SilenceS]

With all due respect, I'm not going on about anything. You might as well not take this subject up with me, and I say that respectfully. I played the game for too long to hear a bunch of metric heads say that clutch, or pressure players, don't exist. In fact, it's so ridiculous, I don't even want to talk about it anymore.

:lmao::lmao: I thought you took Master level Statistics classes? lol

 

[SilenceS]

Hopefully you're right! I'll tell you my biggest concern, it's Castro's mental makeup. He's got a ton of talent, but I question his mental toughness. People think I'm a Castro basher, that's not the case, I want him to be the player he can be.

He needs to play better as far as his defense and base running, period. He seems to have mental lapses, imo. My biggest worry has been with Maddon's emphasis on defense, and Russell waiting in the wings, as you say, that he would actually get worse.

Pressure tends to make players with suspect mental toughness to play worse. Again, I hope Russell's development DOES help Castro get it together. Contrary to people's opinion of me, I'd Love to see him put it all together. :yep:

Mental toughness? You just told someone to not respond to you because you didnt want to hear what he was saying. I wouldnt talk mental toughness. Castro was brought up to young and was not taught fundamentals. He cut down on the mental lapses a ton last year which the Cubs even said. Your perception of Castro stems from past events and not current. So, when he does make an error. You automatically act like he is the only one to ever do it because his past made your perception. Colorado is probably the only team that wouldnt want Castro as their SS. It boggles my mind.

 

[SilenceS]

Russell has been more consistent. 1 for 5 and still hitting .308. With a BB. Bryant was slumping and today he just woke up. 3 for 4 1 2B 1 HR 3 RBI's. with a BB.

I do not think they will be able to hold Russell back too long. His game is right there and more complete that Castro's.

No, it isnt. Castro has hit .300 in the majors. Russell isnt a .300 hitter in the minors. Russell walk rate has decreased at higher levels. He has mental lapses in D just like Castro from time to time. The Cubs want to see him show power with the average which he hasnt really done. People are also talking that the power hasnt come on like people have hoped. He isnt ready and the Cubs have no reason to rush him. They have played 3 games and he has 13 at bats. Their stat lines mean nothing.

 

[Chief Walking Stick]

Holy half mod spam.

 

[Boobaby1]

No, it isnt. Castro has hit .300 in the majors. Russell isnt a .300 hitter in the minors. Russell walk rate has decreased at higher levels. He has mental lapses in D just like Castro from time to time. The Cubs want to see him show power with the average which he hasnt really done. People are also talking that the power hasnt come on like people have hoped. He isnt ready and the Cubs have no reason to rush him. They have played 3 games and he has 13 at bats. Their stat lines mean nothing.

This is why he is making a strong case. :thinking:


http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=69816883

 

[Parade_Rain]

Mental toughness? You just told someone to not respond to you because you didnt want to hear what he was saying.

:aj:

I wouldnt talk mental toughness. Castro was brought up to young and was not taught fundamentals. He cut down on the mental lapses a ton last year which the Cubs even said. Your perception of Castro stems from past events and not current. So, when he does make an error. You automatically act like he is the only one to ever do it because his past made your perception. Colorado is probably the only team that wouldnt want Castro as their SS. It boggles my mind.

No way, man. He must be traded while he has value. Russell is a sure thing and guaranteed 3x AS.

 

[SilenceS]

This is why he is making a strong case. :thinking:


http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=69816883

Yes, no one said he doesnt make great plays. He still makes bad ones as well. He isnt considered a GG type SS.

 

[Boobaby1]

No way, man. He must be traded while he has value. Russell is a sure thing and guaranteed 3x AS.

He may not ever be a 3-time AS, but he may be the better defender. I for one, want the best defensive SS we can have. I could care less that Russell develops his so-called power or not, or if Castro is a .300 hitter sometime again.

You put the players in the best positions to succeed.

Furthermore, we need to stop with the 3-time AS bit on Castro. If he were as advertised, teams would be lining up to pry him off the Cubs, and the Cubs would have their ACE already in return and not have to delve into the farm. Just my opinion though so no need to get all hasty people.:nope:

 

[Boobaby1]

Yes, no one said he doesnt make great plays. He still makes bad ones as well. He isnt considered a GG type SS.

And Castro is farther from it than Russell.

 

[SilenceS]

And Castro is farther from it than Russell.

Russell hasnt taken a major league at bat and isnt considered a GG type but you are ready to push Castro off? Also, you do realize there is no shot of them moving Castro off short this season. None.

 

[SilenceS]

He may not ever be a 3-time AS, but he may be the better defender. I for one, want the best defensive SS we can have. I could care less that Russell develops his so-called power or not, or if Castro is a .300 hitter sometime again.

You put the players in the best positions to succeed.

Furthermore, we need to stop with the 3-time AS bit on Castro. If he were as advertised, teams would be lining up to pry him off the Cubs, and the Cubs would have their ACE already in return and not have to delve into the farm. Just my opinion though so no need to get all hasty people.:nope:

You do realize the Mets were interested and the Cubs hung up the phone. They want a proven ace for him. That is the hardest thing to trade for in this league. You have never cared for Castro and I understand that, but that is going a little to far.

 

[Parade_Rain]

BTW, what's the definition of a "big hit"? What's the definition of "pressure"? One poster gave a couple of examples of significant game situations. Are those really "pressures"? That didn't cover them all. How do those "pressures" compare to the "pressure" of post-season play, let alone if you talk to players, there is a significant difference between post-season play and that post-season play called the World Series. IOW, "pressure" isn't as definable as some here would like it to be, meaning that "clutch" isn't measurable, even though you and fangraphs think they can come up with something.

I've missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.
Read more at http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/m/michaeljor127660.html#5OOzWs8RJMebAGTK.99

"Clutch" is a feeling and a perception. I wanted the ball in Jordan's hands at the end of the game, because I felt he would be more successful than another player. Why? Because he was the best player. Looking at the Cubs from last season, without looking at stats, with a runner on 2B late in the game, needing to tie or get the winning run, who do you want at the plate? Would you have wanted Valbuena or Rizzo? I'd want Rizzo, because he's proven to be the better hitter. The better hitter is still going to fail in that situation the majority of the time, because the best batting average still fails most of the time.

 

[SilenceS]

It just boggles my mind how people dismiss him so much. Last year, he was the best qualified hitting SS. He would have hit close to .300 with probably around 17 or so homers while playing LEAGUE AVERAGE D and people want to dismiss him for a guy who has proven nothing. Also, do people realize since Castro came up he has had 4 coaches in 5 years. 4 coaches all teaching him different ways to play. That is not easy. Like I said, Castro was brought up way to young and was not taught any fundamentals. He could put the bat on the ball and thats it. He has come a country mile in these 5 years and has progressed every season. When I stop seeing progression, then I will talk moving him. Derek Jeter had shitty range for a SS. I mean real shitty. I wonder if Yankee fans were calling for him to be moved. lol

 

[SilenceS]

BTW, what's the definition of a "big hit"? What's the definition of "pressure"? One poster gave a couple of examples of significant game situations. Are those really "pressures"? That didn't cover them all. How do those "pressures" compare to the "pressure" of post-season play, let alone if you talk to players, there is a significant difference between post-season play and that post-season play called the World Series. IOW, "pressure" isn't as definable as some here would like it to be, meaning that "clutch" isn't measurable, even though you and fangraphs think they can come up with something.



"Clutch" is a feeling and a perception. I wanted the ball in Jordan's hands at the end of the game, because I felt he would be more successful than another player. Why? Because he was the best player. Looking at the Cubs from last season, without looking at stats, with a runner on 2B late in the game, needing to tie or get the winning run, who do you want at the plate? Would you have wanted Valbuena or Rizzo? I'd want Rizzo, because he's proven to be the better hitter. The better hitter is still going to fail in that situation the majority of the time, because the best batting average still fails most of the time.

I did research on this a couple of years ago. David Ortiz can be considered clutch because he has had some ridiculous post seasons. Clutch is real, but not like people think. Bill James was against clutch hitting but has soften his stance by saying that there are some performers who just excel in the spotlight and some that suck. Ov average, most are going to perform around the same at all time but there are that few that raise their game and become clutch.