IST: Cubs(13-10) at Cards(18-6)

[Ari Bear]

Bryant saved a run

 

[chibears55]

Odds are against Russell here getting another big hit

 

[beckdawg]

Hendricks has to be replaced. I know some of you guys like him, but we knew last year was a fluke. He probably isn't as bad as he's been this year. But the real Hendricks is a lot closer to the 2015 version, than the 2014 version. Ramirez and Grimm are going to be ready soon, so reinforcements in the pen are coming. Hopefully we drop German and Coke.

Cubs have had a brutal schedule to start the season. It's weird seeing the pitching let us down, the past 3 years it's been the offense

You're talking about a #5 pitcher. I don't get what people are expecting. Additionally, the underlying numbers actually suggest Hendricks has been better this season than last. If you look at a team like the Royals who are arguably a year or so ahead of where you'd expect the cubs to be their #5 starter is Jason Vargas who is 2-1 with a 5.95/5.42 ERA/FIP. Guthrie their #4 is 2-2 with a 6.52/5.75 ERA FIP. This is a team that is 16-9 right now. Brandon McCarthy before going down for the dodgers was 3-0 with a 5.87/6.22 ERA/FIP. Brett Anderson is 1-1 with a 4.21/3.44 ERA/FIP. The dodgers are 16-9.

I can go on and on here. So seeing Wood at 2-1 with a 4.40/3.72 ERA/FIP and Hendricks at a 5.61/4.14 and possibly 0-2 tonight doesn't really surprise me. It's frustrating to me that people seemingly have no idea what's going on outside their team. The cubs are fine. They probably need to get better in the bull pen but they are also missing two of their best pieces from last years team in Grimm and Ramirez. Maybe at the deadline you look to upgrade your #3 starter and figure out what to do with Wood/Hendricks as your #5 but my point here is Wood and Hendricks aren't making the cubs a 70 win team. I'd argue their biggest problem is inconsistent offense but again you'd expect that with a team as young as the cubs. For example, they've scored 13 runs the past two nights against the best team in baseball and were able to put a grand total of 6 up vs the previous 4 games against one of the worst in the Brewers and a roughly .500 team in the Pirates.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

You're talking about a #5 pitcher. I don't get what people are expecting. Additionally, the underlying numbers actually suggest Hendricks has been better this season than last. If you look at a team like the Royals who are arguably a year or so ahead of where you'd expect the cubs to be their #5 starter is Jason Vargas who is 2-1 with a 5.95/5.42 ERA/FIP. Guthrie their #4 is 2-2 with a 6.52/5.75 ERA FIP. This is a team that is 16-9 right now. Brandon McCarthy before going down for the dodgers was 3-0 with a 5.87/6.22 ERA/FIP. Brett Anderson is 1-1 with a 4.21/3.44 ERA/FIP. The dodgers are 16-9.

I can go on and on here. So seeing Wood at 2-1 with a 4.40/3.72 ERA/FIP and Hendricks at a 5.61/4.14 and possibly 0-2 tonight doesn't really surprise me. It's frustrating to me that people seemingly have no idea what's going on outside their team. The cubs are fine. They probably need to get better in the bull pen but they are also missing two of their best pieces from last years team in Grimm and Ramirez. Maybe at the deadline you look to upgrade your #3 starter and figure out what to do with Wood/Hendricks as your #5 but my point here is Wood and Hendricks aren't making the cubs a 70 win team. I'd argue their biggest problem is inconsistent offense but again you'd expect that with a team as young as the cubs. For example, they've scored 13 runs the past two nights against the best team in baseball and were able to put a grand total of 6 up vs the previous 4 games against one of the worst in the Brewers and a roughly .500 team in the Pirates.

Last year, jag off dipshit fans and drunken Keith Moreland were comparing Hendricks to Maddux because he was a finesse/location pitcher. Now Hendricks is "a #5 pitcher." So the goalposts/realm of expectations change now.....

Maddux will forever be an exception to the rule as a pitcher.

THe cubs aren't fine. Blowing leads, inconsistent starting pitching, and a semi-porous bullpen are not exactly traits of a team I'd call 'fine.'

No, this isnt "the sky is falling," this is an objective fan seeing a team with bad pitching that cant finish with talent I've been reluctant to acknowledge due to my grand disliking of a cheap front office.

This team needs help, and no, not at the plate. They need help on the mound, and they have ZERO TOR talent waiting in the wings and that's going to kill them when they start to fizzle out of the division and wildcard race in another month and a half.

Wood blows. Cite every sabremetric you want to make yourself feel better. 2013 was an outlier year. He's an average pitcher at best. Hendricks isn't. Teams have quickly caught onto him too, so again--tell yourself whatever you gotta to make yourself feel better. Throw out another useless sabremetric stat. WHIP, K/9 and a simple eye test say both of these pitchers suck balls.

Stop living in "la la land."

 

[JZsportsfan]

Just because another good team has a bad #5 starter doesn't mean the Cubs have to have one. If you want to compete with the Cardinals over the course of a season you can't having a guy throwing every 5th day that gives you about a 25% chance of winning.

It was widely considered the biggest weakness for this team entering the season, and that concern has proven to be relevant early in the season. Is the offense perfect? No, but as you said, that's what happens when you have 3 rookies, a platoon, and a pitcher consisting of 5/9 of your order.

I'm not saying add another #5 starter. You can add a 2/3 guy and move everyone down. Adding a #2 shouldn't be looked at as upgrading over Arrieta, it should be looked at as upgrading over the #5 pitcher.

 

[beckdawg]

Last year, jag off dipshit fans and drunken Keith Moreland were comparing Hendricks to Maddux because he was a finesse/location pitcher. Now Hendricks is "a #5 pitcher." So the goalposts/realm of expectations change now.....

Whomever suggested he was Maddux clearly sipping koolaid. I've continually said I thought his upside was Doug Fister who's basically been a #4/5 albeit quite a good one. So, save me this "changing goalpost" bullshit. The cubs themselves have slotted him as their #5 pitcher. I'm not manufacturing that to make him look better.

THe cubs aren't fine. Blowing leads, inconsistent starting pitching, and a semi-porous bullpen are not exactly traits of a team I'd call 'fine.'

You mean like basically every young team ever? There is a reason people talk about learning how to win. This series in a nutshell is the difference between a talented young team and a team accustomed to winning. The cardinals have done the small things to stay in games and ultimately win them.

Wood blows. Cite every sabremetric you want to make yourself feel better. 2013 was an outlier year. He's an average pitcher at best. Hendricks isn't. Teams have quickly caught onto him too, so again--tell yourself whatever you gotta to make yourself feel better. Throw out another useless sabremetric stat. WHIP, K/9 and a simple eye test say both of these pitchers suck balls.

You're missing my point. Wood and Hendricks are similar to any number of #4/5 pitchers. Say they blow all you want but guess what, most #4/5 pitchers suck even on division leading teams. The Royals are 0.5 game back of the Tigers. The Dodgers are leading the west. And despite both Wood and Hendricks, the cubs have had chances to win both last night and tonight. They obviously lost by 1 run last night and just had Rizzo up with the bases loaded tonight. Good teams find ways to win those games.

 

[beckdawg]

Just because another good team has a bad #5 starter doesn't mean the Cubs have to have one. If you want to compete with the Cardinals over the course of a season you can't having a guy throwing every 5th day that gives you about a 25% chance of winning.

You're assuming there are better pitchers out there that can be had. Surely the Dodgers would upgrade if they could especially with McCarthy going down to UCL. What I'm getting at here is there's not that many good pitchers and most teams have crappy #4/5 starters or have an absurd amount of money tied up in their starting rotation(see: Nationals).

Edit: to illustrate the point, are Wood and Hendricks that much worse than Carlos Martinez and Tyler Lyons who they faced? Neither Martinez or Lyons made it through 5 innings.

 

[chibears55]

I think some of you guys raised your expectations of this team a little to quick after their start...

This team is still being built and expectations should simmer down a bit for the season. ..

Wood Hammel and Hendricks most likely wont be on team next year and are not going anywhere this year unless they totally collapse or find a better replacement. ..

 

[Mr. Cub]

God, we suck asshole. And I HATE the Cards so fucking bad!

 

[beckdawg]

Wood Hammel and Hendricks most likely wont be on team next year and are not going anywhere this year unless they totally collapse or find a better replacement. ..

I'm not sure all of them will be around but again, who you going to replace them with? I can definitely see the front office adding a Zimmerman/Latos type as a #3 but they aren't going to dump probably $40 mil/year on a #3 and #4 starter. Given that they gave Hammel a multi-year deal my expectation is Lester, Arrieta, <insert guy>, Hammel, and probably Hendricks unless someone like Edwards/Turner/Johnson beats him out.

Regardless, at the end of the day they are 13-12 with what they have and people are acting as though this is a 60 win team because of Wood and Hendricks. In my opinion, once Grimm and Ramirez get back you'll see an increasingly solid team. If you look at how the Royals have played it's essentially get 5 innings out of your starter then hand it over to a dominating bullpen. The cubs bullpen last year wasn't quite as good as the Royals but it was close thanks in large part to Grimm and Ramirez. Without those two they haven't had guys they could bring in to get a starter out of a tough inning. The game was 4-4 tonight when Hendricks came out. They lost the game because Jackson and Russell gave up 3 runs in 2 innings. They were up 8-6 last night after Wood left the game. They lost the game because Strop and Rosscup gave up 4 runs in an inning.

In other words, the less you have to use the guys they've used to replace Grimm and Ramirez the better.

 

[chibears55]

I'm not sure all of them will be around but again, who you going to replace them with? I can definitely see the front office adding a Zimmerman/Latos type as a #3 but they aren't going to dump probably $40 mil/year on a #3 and #4 starter. Given that they gave Hammel a multi-year deal my expectation is Lester, Arrieta, <insert guy>, Hammel, and probably Hendricks unless someone like Edwards/Turner/Johnson beats him out.

Regardless, at the end of the day they are 13-12 with what they have and people are acting as though this is a 60 win team because of Wood and Hendricks. In my opinion, once Grimm and Ramirez get back you'll see an increasingly solid team. If you look at how the Royals have played it's essentially get 5 innings out of your starter then hand it over to a dominating bullpen. The cubs bullpen last year wasn't quite as good as the Royals but it was close thanks in large part to Grimm and Ramirez. Without those two they haven't had guys they could bring in to get a starter out of a tough inning. The game was 4-4 tonight when Hendricks came out. They lost the game because Jackson and Russell gave up 3 runs in 2 innings. They were up 8-6 last night after Wood left the game. They lost the game because Strop and Rosscup gave up 4 runs in an inning.

In other words, the less you have to use the guys they've used to replace Grimm and Ramirez the better.

I thought Hammel was just a 1 yr deal, so yea there a chance he sticks if he doesn't self explode this year..

So, my thinking is whether its a deadline deal this year or in off season, they will add that extra top starter...

Hammel will probably be the 4 then, and then the 5th starter will most likely be a rookie if hendricks or wood dont finish strong this year or traded. .

But for this year, unless they self explode, they will ride it out with all 3 until the very earliest the deadline ...

 

[CSF77]

I'm not sure all of them will be around but again, who you going to replace them with? I can definitely see the front office adding a Zimmerman/Latos type as a #3 but they aren't going to dump probably $40 mil/year on a #3 and #4 starter. Given that they gave Hammel a multi-year deal my expectation is Lester, Arrieta, <insert guy>, Hammel, and probably Hendricks unless someone like Edwards/Turner/Johnson beats him out.

Regardless, at the end of the day they are 13-12 with what they have and people are acting as though this is a 60 win team because of Wood and Hendricks. In my opinion, once Grimm and Ramirez get back you'll see an increasingly solid team. If you look at how the Royals have played it's essentially get 5 innings out of your starter then hand it over to a dominating bullpen. The cubs bullpen last year wasn't quite as good as the Royals but it was close thanks in large part to Grimm and Ramirez. Without those two they haven't had guys they could bring in to get a starter out of a tough inning. The game was 4-4 tonight when Hendricks came out. They lost the game because Jackson and Russell gave up 3 runs in 2 innings. They were up 8-6 last night after Wood left the game. They lost the game because Strop and Rosscup gave up 4 runs in an inning.

In other words, the less you have to use the guys they've used to replace Grimm and Ramirez the better.

If they trade for Reddick and Gray it changes they dynamic of the team with out adding a huge amount of contract. At that point if they get Turner back and his stuff is still sitting mid 90's it makes him a strong back of the rotation.

I expect them to make a move by the dead line. I don't see the wisdom of adding more youth to a team in adaption already. It needs more stability right now.

What I saw out of this game: Hendricks walks 2 guys and strikes out 1. He was at 73 pitches in 5 innings. He was not forcing Maddon's hand to not PH for him. This is not the same guy that dominated last year.

Russell 2-3. He is doing what we hope all of the youth projects will do. Adapt to the talent. He started out looking like crap and now he is starting to become more of an impact. He is looking the part of top prospect.

Line up wise I really wish Russell would hit #2. Push Soler down to #5. As a #9 hitter I would like to see Szczur playing every day. See what he brings to the table.

We will see after the next time through the rotation but I'm seeing Lester righting the ship then Arrieta rebounding from his rocky start. 2-2 would be a solid ending to this crapfest.

This game I put on Hendricks. He needs to prove that he is worthy of wearing a major league uniform.

 

[Ari Bear]

If they trade for Reddick and Gray it changes they dynamic of the team with out adding a huge amount of contract. At that point if they get Turner back and his stuff is still sitting mid 90's it makes him a strong back of the rotation.

I expect them to make a move by the dead line. I don't see the wisdom of adding more youth to a team in adaption already. It needs more stability right now.

What I saw out of this game: Hendricks walks 2 guys and strikes out 1. He was at 73 pitches in 5 innings. He was not forcing Maddon's hand to not PH for him. This is not the same guy that dominated last year.

Russell 2-3. He is doing what we hope all of the youth projects will do. Adapt to the talent. He started out looking like crap and now he is starting to become more of an impact. He is looking the part of top prospect.

Line up wise I really wish Russell would hit #2. Push Soler down to #5. As a #9 hitter I would like to see Szczur playing every day. See what he brings to the table.

We will see after the next time through the rotation but I'm seeing Lester righting the ship then Arrieta rebounding from his rocky start. 2-2 would be a solid ending to this crapfest.

This game I put on Hendricks. He needs to prove that he is worthy of wearing a major league uniform.

I would put a lot of it on the pen. Mainly Jackson

 

[chibears55]

The bullpen should shape out nice once Grimm and Ramirez returns, hopefully this weekend. ...

I would hope their return means the end of Jackson and Coke. .

Motte, Russell, Rosscup, Grimm, Ramirez, Strop, and Rondon

 

[beckdawg]

This game I put on Hendricks. He needs to prove that he is worthy of wearing a major league uniform.

Think what you want but Hendricks gave them 5 innings vs the best team in baseball. That's giving the team a shot to win. Would you like 6 or 7 innings out of him with higher k totals? Sure. But you're not going to get that every day and rarely out of your #5 starter for any team.

As for trades, think people are going to be disappointed honestly. I really don't think the front office is going to move heaven and earth to make a deal. This is why they backed off on Hamels last wavier deadline/off season. I think pitcher is perhaps a bit murky and there could be something done there but I really don't see LF being something they go nuts over. Schwarber is presently tearing up AA at Bryant like levels(.347/.462/.653 over 91 PAs). If we use Bryant as a guide here, there's a very real shot he will be up early next season. So, any player you get for LF is going to almost certainly be a one year rental because you're not going to block the most likely vector for him. That in turn means you're not going to go ham on someone in LF because you aren't going to give up a ton of resources for a one year rental in a year where world series is a hope rather than an expectation.

I just don't think the cubs are in the position of a lot of teams in terms of pitching. For the sake of argument let's say Gray and one or two others like Hamels are out there this deadline. Who's going to need to go more all in? The Cubs or the Cardinals? The Cubs or the Dodgers? The Cubs or the Yankees? The cubs probably have the resources to get these kind of trades done but if you are the cubs why would you give up probably something like 2-3 of your top 5 prospects for Hamels? If Gray is there, I can see that potential but it's usually more guys like Price, Hamels and Shark you see.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Whomever suggested he was Maddux clearly sipping koolaid.

Nobody suggested he was Maddux, except for maybe Beer Pride. How he needed to pitch smart and hit his spots, as opposed to blowing it by people was reminiscent of pitchers like Maddux. IOW, someone in this thread has created a strawman and pounds the piss out of it.

 

[CSF77]

Think what you want but Hendricks gave them 5 innings vs the best team in baseball. That's giving the team a shot to win. Would you like 6 or 7 innings out of him with higher k totals? Sure. But you're not going to get that every day and rarely out of your #5 starter for any team.

As for trades, think people are going to be disappointed honestly. I really don't think the front office is going to move heaven and earth to make a deal. This is why they backed off on Hamels last wavier deadline/off season. I think pitcher is perhaps a bit murky and there could be something done there but I really don't see LF being something they go nuts over. Schwarber is presently tearing up AA at Bryant like levels(.347/.462/.653 over 91 PAs). If we use Bryant as a guide here, there's a very real shot he will be up early next season. So, any player you get for LF is going to almost certainly be a one year rental because you're not going to block the most likely vector for him. That in turn means you're not going to go ham on someone in LF because you aren't going to give up a ton of resources for a one year rental in a year where world series is a hope rather than an expectation.

I just don't think the cubs are in the position of a lot of teams in terms of pitching. For the sake of argument let's say Gray and one or two others like Hamels are out there this deadline. Who's going to need to go more all in? The Cubs or the Cardinals? The Cubs or the Dodgers? The Cubs or the Yankees? The cubs probably have the resources to get these kind of trades done but if you are the cubs why would you give up probably something like 2-3 of your top 5 prospects for Hamels? If Gray is there, I can see that potential but it's usually more guys like Price, Hamels and Shark you see.

Status Que they are a .500 team. If they add another bat and a #3 SP it bumps them into the 85+ win realm. Which is wild card.

My problem with Hendricks is very simple. I felt last year was a fluke. This year he is proving me right. Talent proves it self. His stuff has to be point on to even pitch at this level and it has not been this year. He lacks a 90+ fastball so he depends on the location of his sinker. I've suggested that he goes back to Iowa where he can work on his pitch sequence and let him build up to be able to get into the 7th inning more vs puttering just enough to get past the 5th. At this point I would rather give Wada a few starts.

 

[Parade_Rain]

How much longer before Turner is ready for a shot?

 

[chibears55]

If the team is still being built there was zero value in going out and signing a 30 plus year old pitcher in Lester.

Do you think this roster will be the same at end of season and start of next year ?

They already added 2 new position players in bryant and russell since opening day...

I doubt Coughlan is their permanent answer for LF, and if not during season, he will be replaced in off season.

Fowler , though I wouldn't mind him retuning is a question mark to return next year..

There nobody on that bench that I would say we need to keep ..

The bullpen is still a work in progress but when Grimm and Ramirez returns, it could be stabilized barring injuries and releasing Jackson and Coke over anyone else. ..

The rotation will have at least 2 new starters next year, if not this year..


So , yes their position players are close to set with LF and maybe CF as only question marks..
85% done

Bullpen is close but not yet finished. .
90 % done

Bench can always change...
Incomplete

Rotation will add at least 2 more new starters at some point...
60% done


So yea, their still being built in some areas

 

[TC in Mississippi]

How much longer before Turner is ready for a shot?

Not yet on a rehab assignment. Last I had heard was mid May so could be soon. He could very well be given a spot start in June to see how he responds. I wouldn't count chickens and all that plus there are no guarantees this guy will turn it around. There were positive signs and then he got hurt. The rotation needs two starters if Turner could come back and win the 5th spot and they could trade for a guy that is no less than a number 3 than those are some good steps. I've seen enough of Hendricks and Wood is basically what he is.