IST:Cubs at Reds

[brett05]

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2016/04/22...r-troll-hed-be-dominant-one-day-he-delivered/

good read. I have vague recollection of that coming to light last year.

 

[fatbeard]

That is not coaching. I could do that. I can let Jake be Jake. That does not make me a good pitching coach which again for those that need it, Bosio is one of the best.

There is a laughably narrow definition of coaching being used here. So Joe Maddon is only "coaching" when he's plotting matchups and moves. He's not "coaching" when he's planning various ways to keep the team relaxed, loose, energized, and competitive. Makes sense.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Whatever helps you thru

You've just been pwn3d.

In Chicago, Arrieta unlocked his potential through two key adjustments. Pitching coach Chris Bosio suggested Arrieta move to the third-base side of the pitching rubber and lower his arm slot. It created more deception and lent a “crossfire” effect to his pitches, rare for a right-hander. The new angle also helped him pitch to both sides of the plate. One American League evaluator, who began scouting Arrieta at age 15, said he had never seen him locate fastballs to his glove-side until this season.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...e-now-hes-doing-the-impossible-with-the-cubs/

 

[Diehardfan]

[video=youtube;fcQe4aUcIU4]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fcQe4aUcIU4[/video]

 

[fatbeard]

After Arrieta's last start against COL I wrote a post about how he seemed to be altering his approach this year, moving from the traditionally overpowering strikeout-centric approach of an "ace" to a more economical approach of pitching to weak contact and ratcheting up for Ks only when he needed them. I'm not sure whether that theory is really true yet, but I think this article from Fangraphs does lend it some credence:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jake-arrieta-king-of-weak-contact/

Love the last line: "Arrieta has somehow mixed the strike zone dominance of a traditional ace with the weak-contact skills of a knuckleballer, and when you put those two traits into one pitcher, I have no idea what opposing hitters are supposed to do."

 

[brett05]

:smh:

 

[beckdawg]

They let Jake be Jake. That's not genius coaching. That's Jake being a prodigy. You can call Jake a liar if you wish. I am going to take Jake at his word.

I'd argue that putting a player in the position to be himself is great coaching. There's a lot of ego's in sports and often times coaches will think they know best. It's easy to say that jake is a prodigy but knowing when to get out of someone's way is a big deal because clearly the O's didn't.

 

[Parade_Rain]

You've just been pwn3d.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...e-now-hes-doing-the-impossible-with-the-cubs/

:smh:

You missed my post. You're simply wrong. Be a man and admit it.

 

[fatbeard]

On a non Arrieta-related note, the Cubs made the Reds throw 197 pitches in the first game of a four game series. That's just brutal. The Reds may have to call up some AAA arms to compliment the AAA arms that already make up their bullpen for games three and four. I kinda feel for Price at this point.

 

[fatbeard]

Cubs 12-4 and underachieving.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

 

[beckdawg]

So.... Fowler is closing in on 2 fWAR at 1.8. That's insane.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Baez at 3B and Bryant in LF tonight. I get the feeling we're going to see this a lot if Javy gets his bat going.

 

[SilenceS]

So.... Fowler is closing in on 2 fWAR at 1.8. That's insane.

Yea, but he is due for a big slump. Baseball evens itself out. Even if he has a career year, its going to start slowing down.

 

[SilenceS]

Baez at 3B and Bryant in LF tonight. I get the feeling we're going to see this a lot if Javy gets his bat going.

I think Maddon would like to get Baez as many reps as he can early. He has always been a slow starter. Even in the minors, then he settles in and starts walking more and hitting the ball hard. Hard to do that is you are sitting on the bench. People have to remember he is 23 still and has some hiccups he has to work out and only live baseball will truly help you. Hitting in the cage is great, but seeing major league pitchers is a whole different spectrum. Also, this makes our IF better. Him and Russell range on the left side should be pretty incredible. I would assume Russell can cheat more up the middle as well because of the quick first step to Baez. He will more range for balls in the hole than Bryant.

 

[beckdawg]

Yea, but he is due for a big slump. Baseball evens itself out. Even if he has a career year, its going to start slowing down.

Eh... I mean I'm not really sure. Obviously he's not going to keep a .500 BABIP the rest of the season but that doesn't mean necessarily that he's going to slump. His 18.3% walk rate would appear to suggest he's pretty locked in at the plate and kill anything that isn't out of the zone. He's got 6 doubles, a triple and 3 HRs in 71 PAs. If we add in his second half of last season he had .272/.389/.463 triple slash with 15.3%/22.4% bb/k rates. So, while 71 PAs isn't a crap load that adds another 321 where he's had a walk rate over 15%. And I think you can also argue that this line up with the way it wears out pitchers helps him and everyone else in that regard compared to last year who was good but not that good.

Also, FWIW his defense in CF has been seemingly improved. Fangraphs brought this up earlier today here http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-defensive-metrics-mightve-saved-jake-arrietas-no-hitter/. Basically it suggests that he's changed how he positions himself. In the past he apparently played more shallow vs where they are currently having him start and thus far his DRS is +4. The obvious caveat there with sample size but from what I've seen via the eye test he does look improved. There were a number of games last year where he'd end up with balls hit over his head and that hasn't happened much this season. Even the shot to LF/CF alley where Schwarber got hurt, he covered quite a bit of ground.

So, while I don't expect him to have a Mike Trout season, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him around 5 fWAR.

 

[SilenceS]

Eh... I mean I'm not really sure. Obviously he's not going to keep a .500 BABIP the rest of the season but that doesn't mean necessarily that he's going to slump. His 18.3% walk rate would appear to suggest he's pretty locked in at the plate and kill anything that isn't out of the zone. He's got 6 doubles, a triple and 3 HRs in 71 PAs. If we add in his second half of last season he had .272/.389/.463 triple slash with 15.3%/22.4% bb/k rates. So, while 71 PAs isn't a crap load that adds another 321 where he's had a walk rate over 15%. And I think you can also argue that this line up with the way it wears out pitchers helps him and everyone else in that regard compared to last year who was good but not that good.

Also, FWIW his defense in CF has been seemingly improved. Fangraphs brought this up earlier today here http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-defensive-metrics-mightve-saved-jake-arrietas-no-hitter/. Basically it suggests that he's changed how he positions himself. In the past he apparently played more shallow vs where they are currently having him start and thus far his DRS is +4. The obvious caveat there with sample size but from what I've seen via the eye test he does look improved. There were a number of games last year where he'd end up with balls hit over his head and that hasn't happened much this season. Even the shot to LF/CF alley where Schwarber got hurt, he covered quite a bit of ground.

So, while I don't expect him to have a Mike Trout season, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him around 5 fWAR.

I have watched way to much baseball in life. It all evens out over time.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I think Maddon would like to get Baez as many reps as he can early. He has always been a slow starter. Even in the minors, then he settles in and starts walking more and hitting the ball hard. Hard to do that is you are sitting on the bench. People have to remember he is 23 still and has some hiccups he has to work out and only live baseball will truly help you. Hitting in the cage is great, but seeing major league pitchers is a whole different spectrum. Also, this makes our IF better. Him and Russell range on the left side should be pretty incredible. I would assume Russell can cheat more up the middle as well because of the quick first step to Baez. He will more range for balls in the hole than Bryant.

People don't forget that Baez is 23. Most of the team is 26 and below. Are you going to give the same courtesy to Soler, Russell, LaStella and Szczur, fanboy? Certainly, when it comes to Baez, you are all about best case scenario.[emoji14]

 

[beckdawg]

I have watched way to much baseball in life. It all evens out over time.

I'm sure it does but often season isn't enough time is basically my point. I mean look at Castro last year. Everything suggested it was just a bad start where he'd even out eventually but by in large he never did. Castro was obviously capable of much more as he'd proven before. I'm basically suggesting the reverse for Fowler. If he plays like this for a month or a month and a half and then basically hits like he has the rest of his career that's a career year. Last season he was worth 3.2 fWAR having an absolute horrid 1st half to the point that many here wanted to trade him. So, if he has a strong month or two it's not that far fetched to suggested he'd put together another ~3 fWAR.

 

[SilenceS]

So, I listened to this little podcast thing on CBS about Jake Arrieta. Lets put this in perspective. In his last 24 starts, Arrieta has a 0.86 ERA. He has 2 no hitters and 3 games with just one run. He has almost as many no hitters as one run games. In 178 innings he has giving up 91 hits. He gave up 53 less runs than AL Cy Young Chris Archer. He had given up 17 runs during that time. To compare this, since June 21, no one in modern major league history has ever had a run like this. Bob Gibson greatest stretch of 24 starts is 0.90 ERA. Oh and he is 20-1 over that stretch. Wow

 

[beckdawg]

The crazy thing to me is not just the no-hitters for arrieta. He also has had like 3-4 near missses where he went like 7 only giving up 1-2 hits.