IST:Cubs at Reds

[Omeletpants]

I see it as if Soler gets it together or not more so. I'm getting the feeling that he is becoming expendable more and more. I'll argue that the team is better off with Baez at 3B and Bryant in LF.

My feelings also. This is an offensive and defensive upgrade over any Soler combination. But I dont see other teams as seeing Soler being a trade option. He would have to be a throw in on a trade not the prime target. Platooning him his not doing him any benefits

 

[TL1961]

So, I listened to this little podcast thing on CBS about Jake Arrieta. Lets put this in perspective. In his last 24 starts, Arrieta has a 0.86 ERA. He has 2 no hitters and 3 games with just one run. He has almost as many no hitters as one run games. In 178 innings he has giving up 91 hits. He gave up 53 less runs than AL Cy Young Chris Archer. He had given up 17 runs during that time. To compare this, since June 21, no one in modern major league history has ever had a run like this. Bob Gibson greatest stretch of 24 starts is 0.90 ERA. Oh and he is 20-1 over that stretch. Wow

Not only is he 20-1 over that stretch, but the only loss came when the other guy threw a no-hitter!

 

[beckdawg]

I see it as if Soler gets it together or not more so. I'm getting the feeling that he is becoming expendable more and more. I'll argue that the team is better off with Baez at 3B and Bryant in LF. Sure Maddon put out that Baez should get 3 starts a week to give some days off to the starters. Honestly with Soler getting the day off you can make that 4 now.

This is my thoughts on it. They could look into taking Soler and Hendricks and looking to deal for a starting pitcher upgrade. At that point they promote Almora (who is raking in Iowa) and move Fowler to LF. You could argue on giving Fowler a contract for a few years at that point.

At Iowa Almora and Conteras are wrecking shop. I can see both factoring in very soon.

I honestly can't imagine you're going to get something significantly better than Hendricks for Soler + Hendricks mainly because Hendricks is highly underrated. People can bitch about Hendricks' stuff but he's 26 and has a 3.52 ERA in 278.1 IP. Not only that but the underlying numbers suggest he's actually pitched better than that with his FIP at 3.30. I mean is Tyson Ross really a substantial upgrade? He's 29, has pitched in arguably the best pitching park in the league for most of his career and he has a 3.64/3.38 ERA/FIP over 670.2 IP. Danny Salazar has better stuff but comes with injury issues and over 365.1 IP at 26 he's got a 3.55/3.49 ERA/FIP. Jake Odorizzi might be possible though the Rays apparently liked Baez more. But he too is 26 and over 397 innings has a 3.79/3.67 ERA/FIP.

Basically, I think you'd need to be talking a tier above these players to even warrant discussion of trading Soler right now. That could change after the season when they could buy out the final year on Hammel but then you wouldn't deal Hendricks. Basically think people just don't realize how good Hendricks has been. Even if you want to make the argument that those pitchers I mentioned have better stuff and could break out where as Hendricks is basically his peak, you're talking about giving up Soler who has huge potential.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Anybody not wanting Soler's bat in the lineup is someone not worth listening to.

 

[chibears55]

I see it as if Soler gets it together or not more so. I'm getting the feeling that he is becoming expendable more and more. I'll argue that the team is better off with Baez at 3B and Bryant in LF. Sure Maddon put out that Baez should get 3 starts a week to give some days off to the starters. Honestly with Soler getting the day off you can make that 4 now.

This is my thoughts on it. They could look into taking Soler and Hendricks and looking to deal for a starting pitcher upgrade. At that point they promote Almora (who is raking in Iowa) and move Fowler to LF. You could argue on giving Fowler a contract for a few years at that point.

At Iowa Almora and Conteras are wrecking shop. I can see both factoring in very soon.

Unless Soler takes a big dump, I don't see them bringing up Almora and plugging him in now in a pressure situation where the team competing for a world series ..
I think if a need for an OFer arises later, they probably go rent a veteran type to hold it down.

Same with Hendricks and Hammel, unless these guys shit the bricks by July, their not going to move either of them.

If they do trade for a SP upgrade, it will be for kids in system and whomever they replace in rotation will probably end up in bullpen.


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[SilenceS]

What I like is that even when the cubs have trouble hitting theres a number of guys who still play good defense so it's not a total loss.

They lead the league in defensive runs saved

 

[DanTown]

Soler has a crazy low BABIP (.192)

He's lowered his K rate to 23.6% from 30.0

He's raised his BB rate from 7.9 to 10.9

He's gone from 71% swing at strikes / 33.5% swing at balls to 75.5% swing at strikes / 27.6% swing at balls

His flyball rate is way up.

 

[SilenceS]

Soler has a crazy low BABIP (.192)

He's lowered his K rate to 23.6% from 30.0

He's raised his BB rate from 7.9 to 10.9

He's gone from 71% swing at strikes / 33.5% swing at balls to 75.5% swing at strikes / 27.6% swing at balls

His flyball rate is way up.

They wanted to work on lifting the ball more. He has a ton of power, but wasn't lifting the ball. He seems to be adjusting to that.

 

[fatbeard]

Soler has a crazy low BABIP (.192)

He's lowered his K rate to 23.6% from 30.0

He's raised his BB rate from 7.9 to 10.9

He's gone from 71% swing at strikes / 33.5% swing at balls to 75.5% swing at strikes / 27.6% swing at balls

His flyball rate is way up.

Soler's problem is his defense. It's really awful. Like, abysmal. If there's anyone who's the "Traded to the AL to be a DH" candidate, it's him.

Baez, over 162 games, probably hits 2.0 WAR on defense and baserunning alone. Everything he gives you from the bat is a bonus (and that projects to be a lot given his power potential). Soler would really have to hit the cover off the ball to make up for his defense and baserunning enough to equal Baez's overall value.

 

[Omeletpants]

Bryant LF, Baez 3b > Bryant 3b, Soler LF

 

[beckdawg]

Soler's problem is his defense. It's really awful. Like, abysmal. If there's anyone who's the "Traded to the AL to be a DH" candidate, it's him.

Baez, over 162 games, probably hits 2.0 WAR on defense and baserunning alone. Everything he gives you from the bat is a bonus (and that projects to be a lot given his power potential). Soler would really have to hit the cover off the ball to make up for his defense and baserunning enough to equal Baez's overall value.

Soler hasn't been *THAT* bad. He was like -10.7 UZR/150 in RF and almost all of the negative came from range portion. From watching him play, that seems more an issue with route running rather than speed. I mean he's not the fastest guy in the world but if he took better routes don't think he would look nearly as bad. The good news is that's probably something he gets better with over time and given his injury history in the minors it kind of makes sense that's not his strongest area.

I'm going to largely avoid talking about Baez because I've already made my feelings on him well known. However, I think you're vastly overrating his defense. To put into context what 2 fWAR looks like, Jason Heyward was like 2.3 fWAR between his baserunning portion and defense. And not to shit on Baez but simply put this widely held belief that he's a plus or plus-plus defender does not agree with the defensive metrics. Even if you go to the more rudimentary errors as a measuring stick, he's had around 12 errors in 600 innings between minors and majors at 2B and 102 errors in 3150 innings at SS. I will say from what I've seen of him at 3B he looks better to me personally there but he's only played around 150 innings there between minors and majors.

I wont get into a hitting debate on Baez because I'd just be repeating things I've already suggested. All I will say is we are 326 PAs in now and he has a sub 6% walk rate and a greater than 30% k rate(being generous). Historically that hasn't worked out well for people. I'm still not 100% what to make of Soler as a hitter but his 7.9%/28.4% bb/k rate profiles much better going forward especially when you start talking he's at 10.9%/23.6% this year. He needs to get better defensively though in LF if we were comfortable with Schwarber out there I'm not really sure Soler is any worse.

Edit: One more thing. To contrast what an actual plus defender(Russell) looks like in the MI, Russell had 9 errors in 746 innings at 2B last season and 5 in 606 between this season and last to go along with 31 in 1926.2 innings at SS in the minors. Baez is basically 2x that at those positions. I just wanted to make that clear because I often get accused of needlessly craping on him but if this isn't fair I don't know what is.

 

[DanTown]

Soler's bat has a much better profile right now compared to Baez but obviously Baez obviously has good speed and defense. Both guys have a spot on a roster and in many of the lineups, especially a roster without Schwarber this year. The drop from those guys to say LaStella/Sczcur in terms of ceiling is quite dramatic.

Unless you get a high value pitcher back, I can't see a reason to trade either guy.

 

[Diehardfan]

Thank God, Epstein and Hoyer are the Cubs GMs and not some of you clowns. The team's 13-4 and winning games like a team in a video game....WELL...not good enough!!! Let's trade!!!

Idjits.......

 

[CSF77]

I honestly can't imagine you're going to get something significantly better than Hendricks for Soler + Hendricks mainly because Hendricks is highly underrated. People can bitch about Hendricks' stuff but he's 26 and has a 3.52 ERA in 278.1 IP. Not only that but the underlying numbers suggest he's actually pitched better than that with his FIP at 3.30. I mean is Tyson Ross really a substantial upgrade? He's 29, has pitched in arguably the best pitching park in the league for most of his career and he has a 3.64/3.38 ERA/FIP over 670.2 IP. Danny Salazar has better stuff but comes with injury issues and over 365.1 IP at 26 he's got a 3.55/3.49 ERA/FIP. Jake Odorizzi might be possible though the Rays apparently liked Baez more. But he too is 26 and over 397 innings has a 3.79/3.67 ERA/FIP.

Basically, I think you'd need to be talking a tier above these players to even warrant discussion of trading Soler right now. That could change after the season when they could buy out the final year on Hammel but then you wouldn't deal Hendricks. Basically think people just don't realize how good Hendricks has been. Even if you want to make the argument that those pitchers I mentioned have better stuff and could break out where as Hendricks is basically his peak, you're talking about giving up Soler who has huge potential.

I get that but at best he is a league #4. Packing him in a deal with Soler for say Sonny Grey? Grey has 1-3 stuff.

Nothing wrong with Hendricks but I wouldn't want to depend on him in a game 7. Just saying

 

[CSF77]

Soler's bat has a much better profile right now compared to Baez but obviously Baez obviously has good speed and defense. Both guys have a spot on a roster and in many of the lineups, especially a roster without Schwarber this year. The drop from those guys to say LaStella/Sczcur in terms of ceiling is quite dramatic.

Unless you get a high value pitcher back, I can't see a reason to trade either guy.

Agree with that. I wouldnt want any return that was lower than Grey at this point. A arguement could be had for a few others but you have to wonder if the upgrade is significant enough to even coincided it.

 

[NCChiFan]

It is interesting that the Cubs are seemingly mediocre behind the plate, yet are pouring in the runs. Timely hitting...

 

[CSF77]

Soler hasn't been *THAT* bad. He was like -10.7 UZR/150 in RF and almost all of the negative came from range portion. From watching him play, that seems more an issue with route running rather than speed. I mean he's not the fastest guy in the world but if he took better routes don't think he would look nearly as bad. The good news is that's probably something he gets better with over time and given his injury history in the minors it kind of makes sense that's not his strongest area.

I'm going to largely avoid talking about Baez because I've already made my feelings on him well known. However, I think you're vastly overrating his defense. To put into context what 2 fWAR looks like, Jason Heyward was like 2.3 fWAR between his baserunning portion and defense. And not to shit on Baez but simply put this widely held belief that he's a plus or plus-plus defender does not agree with the defensive metrics. Even if you go to the more rudimentary errors as a measuring stick, he's had around 12 errors in 600 innings between minors and majors at 2B and 102 errors in 3150 innings at SS. I will say from what I've seen of him at 3B he looks better to me personally there but he's only played around 150 innings there between minors and majors.

I wont get into a hitting debate on Baez because I'd just be repeating things I've already suggested. All I will say is we are 326 PAs in now and he has a sub 6% walk rate and a greater than 30% k rate(being generous). Historically that hasn't worked out well for people. I'm still not 100% what to make of Soler as a hitter but his 7.9%/28.4% bb/k rate profiles much better going forward especially when you start talking he's at 10.9%/23.6% this year. He needs to get better defensively though in LF if we were comfortable with Schwarber out there I'm not really sure Soler is any worse.

Edit: One more thing. To contrast what an actual plus defender(Russell) looks like in the MI, Russell had 9 errors in 746 innings at 2B last season and 5 in 606 between this season and last to go along with 31 in 1926.2 innings at SS in the minors. Baez is basically 2x that at those positions. I just wanted to make that clear because I often get accused of needlessly craping on him but if this isn't fair I don't know what is.

Baez would have to force the issue which puts Bryant in LF and no legit MI UI option. But knowing Maddon they could push Soler into a reserve role if Baez gets red hot and Soler sticks in the .200 BA range.

Here is the thing with Soler. His D doesn't justify him not hitting. For that matter if his D was good they would not have made a 200 mil investment into RF over him. That is the plain reality here. If Schwarber did not get injured Soler would be that guy getting limited time anyways. If anything that injury gave him a opertunity to shut out all doubt. But no. I am honestly wondering if they would be better off with Szczur out there. The D would be better and he has been hitting to this point.

On Baez I feel they are better off letting him be a 6th man for now. If they had a D wiz in AAA that could play UI then I could see a switch

Ideally you would want Soler taking over but.... I'm not sold on him yet. He seems to be able to put it together at times but he lacks any real consistency to this point. Even in the minors he would end up on the DL and only show spurts of his potential.

 

[Bear Pride]

I see it as if Soler gets it together or not more so. I'm getting the feeling that he is becoming expendable more and more. I'll argue that the team is better off with Baez at 3B and Bryant in LF. Sure Maddon put out that Baez should get 3 starts a week to give some days off to the starters. Honestly with Soler getting the day off you can make that 4 now.

This is my thoughts on it. They could look into taking Soler and Hendricks and looking to deal for a starting pitcher upgrade. At that point they promote Almora (who is raking in Iowa) and move Fowler to LF. You could argue on giving Fowler a contract for a few years at that point.

At Iowa Almora and Conteras are wrecking shop. I can see both factoring in very soon.

I have to say I've been a big proponent of keeping Bryant at 3rd, but I'm leaning the other now. Baez just looks really good at 3rd when I watch him there more. And Bryant had a nice defensive play the other day in LF and is really look pretty good out there.

I like Soler's bat, but his defense will hold him back from being the starter out there, imo. I think Baez and Russell make a tremendous left side. And with Almora and Contreous, the Cubs once again have an embarrassing riches of talent.

I'm starting to think the Cubs add a starter at the deadline this year if they can get the right guy.

 

[Bear Pride]

Not only is he 20-1 over that stretch, but the only loss came when the other guy threw a no-hitter!

LOL, I wasn't realizing that! That's amazing. I guess pitchers are going to have to no hit the Cubs to beat Jake this year.

 

[beckdawg]

I get that but at best he is a league #4. Packing him in a deal with Soler for say Sonny Grey? Grey has 1-3 stuff.

Nothing wrong with Hendricks but I wouldn't want to depend on him in a game 7. Just saying

If you were an Oakland fan would you give up Sonny Gray for Hendricks and Soler? That's what I'm getting at. Gray almost certainly would require two big pieces(IE Baez and Soler) and then maybe even more. And even then I personally don't think the difference in Gray and Hendricks would be worth the players you lose to make that jump up. As for depending on Hendricks in game 7, he beat Grienke head to head this year. He beat Zimmermann head to head twice last year. He can win vs top tier pitching. And frankly I'm not sure you'd even be pitching him in game 7 anyways. You might go with Lester or Arrieta on short rest depending.

I feel like people has this thought in their head that every team who ever won anything looked like the mets. Very few teams ever look like the mets pitching staff. Is Hendricks any worse than Derek Lowe? He won multiple big games for Boston in the playoffs. The Royals staff last year would have loved to have a pitcher like Hendricks. I could go on and on. Point being, if the cubs don't win the world series it wont be on Hendricks. It's more than likely going to be on their offense where they've sunk a lot of money and prospects into.