IST: Cubs @ Nationals

[SilenceS]

 

[SilenceS]

I like our team tonight. Gio has not been very good over his last 5 starts.

 

[Mr. Cub]

Will we get the high power offensive Cubs tonight or the shitty Kubs of last night?

Only thing about our team that worries me come playoff time.

 

[SilenceS]

Will we get the high power offensive Cubs tonight or the shitty Kubs of last night?

Only thing about our team that worries me come playoff time.

Scherzer was on last night and the ump was given inches. He would have dominated any offense last night. He was absolutely filthy

 

[chibears55]

I mean I could be wrong here but I strongly doubt that's how you run a business. As i mentioned in the post above, Theo talked about getting creative with money in order to afford Lackey/Zobrist/Heyward. Outside of Ricketts just giving the team money I strongly doubt they have substantial reserves left. And if you look at the moves they made, I think it's pretty obvious that is the case. Why would you sign Joe Nathan if you knew you had the money to deal for Miller?

Regardless, as I've said, I think Miller is overkill for their needs. You can find a good LOOGY who will likely have just as much impact as Miller would and you're both paying him less and you're giving up less to get him.

What are we talking cost wise?
An extra 5 mil or so for what owed in 2nd half for Miller and whoever else they might add.



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[beckdawg]

What are we talking cost wise?
An extra 5 mil or so for what owed in 2nd half for Miller and whoever else they might add.



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I believe you're paid per league day. But given I don't know what the start of the calendar year is for MLB let's just go off games. Yanks have played 63 game of 162 meaning there like 61% of the season left. That'd be ~$5.5 mil. You'd also be talking around $3 mil for Coghlan you've added since opening day not to mention anyone you add to the 40 man roster and or DFA. And while generally that's not a ton of money each person is around $500k. I'd strongly doubt they came into the season with more than $10 mil in reserve for various in season moves. And we know they've called up Kawasaki, Fed, Sweeney, and Almora off the top of my head. So between those 4 and coghlan being back you're already talking $5 mil+.

But either way, that's kind of moot because just look at the names people are connecting to Miller. People are talking about Schwarber for god sake. If they were talking 2 of McKinney/Vogelbach/Candelario then sure it'd be worth considering but they are talking about a Giles level haul which would be absurd when the cubs really haven't needed Miller to be the best team in baseball. At this point, I'd be fine with Matusz assuming he returns to form or if he doesn't someone cheaper like how they went after Hunter last year.

 

[chibears55]

I believe you're paid per league day. But given I don't know what the start of the calendar year is for MLB let's just go off games. Yanks have played 63 game of 162 meaning there like 61% of the season left. That'd be ~$5.5 mil. You'd also be talking around $3 mil for Coghlan you've added since opening day not to mention anyone you add to the 40 man roster and or DFA. And while generally that's not a ton of money each person is around $500k. I'd strongly doubt they came into the season with more than $10 mil in reserve for various in season moves. And we know they've called up Kawasaki, Fed, Sweeney, and Almora off the top of my head. So between those 4 and coghlan being back you're already talking $5 mil+.

But either way, that's kind of moot because just look at the names people are connecting to Miller. People are talking about Schwarber for god sake. If they were talking 2 of McKinney/Vogelbach/Candelario then sure it'd be worth considering but they are talking about a Giles level haul which would be absurd when the cubs really haven't needed Miller to be the best team in baseball. At this point, I'd be fine with Matusz assuming he returns to form or if he doesn't someone cheaper like how they went after Hunter last year.

Going cheaper or with the guy they scraped from the waiver wire is usually what the old Cubs would do..

Im looking towards the playoffs and moreso potential matchup with the Nationals..
With the lead they have and all, any deals the Cubs make will be mostly to better themselves in potential playoff matchups not to get through rest of season.

Id be comfortable with a backend bullpen that included
Betances Miller Strop and Rodon
Over
Matusz or Nathan with Strop and Rodon.. 2 guys you dont even know if their good enough to play now cause of injuries.

I just think if Epstein really wants to make this deal he will do his best to make it work both financially and players wise.
Both teams will be satisfied..

Obviously if the Yankees want the moon , then im sure Epstein will say goodbye..



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[SilenceS]

If there was no second baseman, Heyward would be batting .700

 

[SilenceS]

Ump owes Lackey one there.

 

[SilenceS]

Bryant versatility with his bat is pretty special.

 

[SilenceS]

Patience! Gio nibbles. Stop trying to attack. Let his ball come to you.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Patience! Gio nibbles. Stop trying to attack. Let his ball come to you.

Who is getting a BJ?

 

[SilenceS]

Big knock Heyward. Lackey started the rally


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[Parade_Rain]

Big knock Heyward. Lackey started the rally


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Is it my imagination or does it look like J-Hey is coming out of his slump?

 

[Diehardfan]

Is it my imagination or does it look like J-Hey is coming out of his slump?

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!

 

[SilenceS]

Lucky to get out of that with only allowing 1 run.

 

[SilenceS]

Is it my imagination or does it look like J-Hey is coming out of his slump?

He is swinging better.

 

[The Quickness]

Cubbies batting is showing the Nats why we are top dog in the league. Let's get a bunt for a 4-1 Lead.

 

[beckdawg]

Going cheaper or with the guy they scraped from the waiver wire is usually what the old Cubs would do..

Im looking towards the playoffs and moreso potential matchup with the Nationals..
With the lead they have and all, any deals the Cubs make will be mostly to better themselves in potential playoff matchups not to get through rest of season.

Id be comfortable with a backend bullpen that included
Betances Miller Strop and Rodon
Over
Matusz or Nathan with Strop and Rodon.. 2 guys you dont even know if their good enough to play now cause of injuries.

I just think if Epstein really wants to make this deal he will do his best to make it work both financially and players wise.
Both teams will be satisfied..

Obviously if the Yankees want the moon , then im sure Epstein will say goodbye..



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I mean I get why you want Miller. I just think it's overkill for what the cubs need and that overkill you're likely paying a hefty price for. And given Arrieta's situation isn't resolved I am uncomfortable with the team dealing quality prospects for marginal upgrades. That's not a slight to Miller because he's great. But upgrading relievers in general has little effect. As for it being what the old cubs would do, that doesn't mean it's the wrong play. All of the cubs starters except for Hammel are averaging 6 innings a start. If we're assuming Strop and Rondon are lock down 8th/9th inning guys, the generally you just have to get through 1 or so innings. If you look at the rest of the bull pen the splits look like this

vs righties
Warren - 16 ip .164/.262/.302 6.19 k/9 3.94 bb/9
Grimm - 14.1 ip .246/.295/.474 6.28 k/9 2.51 bb/9
Cahill - 16.2 ip .203/.311/.313 11.34 k/9 5.40 bb/9
Richard - 6.0 ip .304/.385/.318 6.00 k/9 4.50 bb/9
Wood - 12.2 ip .140/.234/.286 7.11 k/9 2.84 bb/9

vs lefties
Warren - 7.1 ip .241/.389/.448 7.36 k/9 8.59 bb/9
Grimm - 8.1 ip .273/.368/.364 15.12 k/9 4.32 bb/9
Cahill - 11.0 ip .171/.320/.341 7.36 k/9 6.55 bb/9
Richard - 6.0 ip .387/.441/.433 3.00 k/9 3.00 bb/9
Wood - 11.1 ip .190/.277/.405 7.15 k/9 3.97 bb/9

The take away here is Warren and Grimm have been fairly strong against righties but not great against lefties. Cahill's been kinda average on both splits. Richard has been routinely horrible. Wood has been pretty dominant from both sides. As I've suggested for awhile here what the cubs are missing is someone to get lefties out. Warren and Grimm are fine for any tough righty you might face. Cahill and Wood are basically split neutral which isn't surprising given they were starters. However, if they aren't available you have no one else in the pen other than Strop/Rondon to get tough lefties out. And honestly, you probably want someone particularly dominant against lefties to get tough lefty batters out rather than having to burn Wood or Cahill for 1 out.

If you go out and get say Abad(.097/.125/.133 vs L) or Fernando Rodney(.031/.184/.031) or Sean Doolittle(.119/.143/.220) or Boone Logan(.108/.158/.194) or Tyler Thornburg(.111/.167/.178) they can pay a fraction of the price of Miller and play match ups a lot easier. Other than Abad I have no idea how much those other players are making but the point I'm trying to make here is you don't need a dominant split neutral guy like Miller. Warren and Grimm(and Cahill/Wood) cover righties and you've already got the 8th and 9th innings covered. The missing piece is just someone strong against lefties.

 

[chibears55]

I mean I get why you want Miller. I just think it's overkill for what the cubs need and that overkill you're likely paying a hefty price for. And given Arrieta's situation isn't resolved I am uncomfortable with the team dealing quality prospects for marginal upgrades. That's not a slight to Miller because he's great. But upgrading relievers in general has little effect. As for it being what the old cubs would do, that doesn't mean it's the wrong play. All of the cubs starters except for Hammel are averaging 6 innings a start. If we're assuming Strop and Rondon are lock down 8th/9th inning guys, the generally you just have to get through 1 or so innings. If you look at the rest of the bull pen the splits look like this

vs righties
Warren - 16 ip .164/.262/.302 6.19 k/9 3.94 bb/9
Grimm - 14.1 ip .246/.295/.474 6.28 k/9 2.51 bb/9
Cahill - 16.2 ip .203/.311/.313 11.34 k/9 5.40 bb/9
Richard - 6.0 ip .304/.385/.318 6.00 k/9 4.50 bb/9
Wood - 12.2 ip .140/.234/.286 7.11 k/9 2.84 bb/9

vs lefties
Warren - 7.1 ip .241/.389/.448 7.36 k/9 8.59 bb/9
Grimm - 8.1 ip .273/.368/.364 15.12 k/9 4.32 bb/9
Cahill - 11.0 ip .171/.320/.341 7.36 k/9 6.55 bb/9
Richard - 6.0 ip .387/.441/.433 3.00 k/9 3.00 bb/9
Wood - 11.1 ip .190/.277/.405 7.15 k/9 3.97 bb/9

The take away here is Warren and Grimm have been fairly strong against righties but not great against lefties. Cahill's been kinda average on both splits. Richard has been routinely horrible. Wood has been pretty dominant from both sides. As I've suggested for awhile here what the cubs are missing is someone to get lefties out. Warren and Grimm are fine for any tough righty you might face. Cahill and Wood are basically split neutral which isn't surprising given they were starters. However, if they aren't available you have no one else in the pen other than Strop/Rondon to get tough lefties out. And honestly, you probably want someone particularly dominant against lefties to get tough lefty batters out rather than having to burn Wood or Cahill for 1 out.

If you go out and get say Abad(.097/.125/.133 vs L) or Fernando Rodney(.031/.184/.031) or Sean Doolittle(.119/.143/.220) or Boone Logan(.108/.158/.194) or Tyler Thornburg(.111/.167/.178) they can pay a fraction of the price of Miller and play match ups a lot easier. Other than Abad I have no idea how much those other players are making but the point I'm trying to make here is you don't need a dominant split neutral guy like Miller. Warren and Grimm(and Cahill/Wood) cover righties and you've already got the 8th and 9th innings covered. The missing piece is just someone strong against lefties.

Far from being overkill..
Their getting a quality LH Setup/Closer for a Championship caliber team..

You don't go after lower quality arms that you're going to hope to count on come big games in playoff...

Those are the guys you go after if you just want to hope to contend or get through the season...
Arms like Miller are the ones you try to get when youre looking to win it all..

As far as money..
yea he owed 9 mil for next 2 yrs..

Two things with that..
I hope the Cubs will continue to be a Championship caliber team for the next two years..

Pedro Strop who being paid 4+ mil will be a FA after next year

Both are 31..

So in 2018 Pedro may not fetch 9 mil but could look for close to it...


As far as Arrieta goes, i gave my opinion on that last offseason..

If he looking for 25+ for more then 4 years, id say goodbye at his age...

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