IST: Cubs vs. Brewers

[DanTown]

If they sweep. Who do you want starting game 1?

Well if they sweep, you reset the rotation and likely go back to Lester in game 1. In a seven game series, you're thinking

Game 1, 5 starter
Game 2, 6 starter
Game 3, 7 starter
Game 4

To be honest, that could be why he's thinking of going Lackey over Hendricks because of the way it positions a second start in a seven game series and the importance of that game (especially if game 6 is on the road).

 

[CSF77]

What I'm thinking is if they sweep you go Hendricks game 1. If it goes 4 games you want Hendricks to close it. If they are down you want to lean on Lester and Hendricks.

Game 2 is a #3 starter in a WC team vs a #2 if the Cubs let a team sneak past them. That is why they have to push it to the end.

 

[beckdawg]

If I was just looking at the numbers I would agree. But it goes beyond that.

Track record favors Lackey over Hendricks or Arrieta. After the Pit game Jake looked human. Lackey beat Jon in game 1 at Wrigg.

I believe past play off results > Current year results.

They factor but Lackey has not had this off year to justify it. The wind tailed behind but his results are there. Not to mention he had a break and should be the least gassed.

I don't know why you'd justify not throwing Hendricks at home. His career ERA is 2.22 at home and 3.59 on the road. I'm not sure I'd want him pitching game one given the other choices but game 2 makes sense. Given their results this year and given each has past playoff experience, Lester just makes sense game 1. As for 3/4 that doesn't matter much to me but it's hard suggesting the reigning cy young winner would pitch 4th.

Way I see it, that set up has Lester pitching games 1 and 5 of the NLDS(if it goes that far). Assuming you finish the NLDS in 3 or 4 games, you would throw Lester 1/5, Hendricks 2/6 and Arrieta 3/7. And assuming the cubs don't sweep all of those series, you're probably talking about Lackey pitching game 2 or 3 of the WS if they make it that far. Since the AL has home field that might line up well to have Hendricks in game 3/4 depending.

 

[CSF77]

I don't know why you'd justify not throwing Hendricks at home. His career ERA is 2.22 at home and 3.59 on the road. I'm not sure I'd want him pitching game one given the other choices but game 2 makes sense. Given their results this year and given each has past playoff experience, Lester just makes sense game 1. As for 3/4 that doesn't matter much to me but it's hard suggesting the reigning cy young winner would pitch 4th.

Way I see it, that set up has Lester pitching games 1 and 5 of the NLDS(if it goes that far). Assuming you finish the NLDS in 3 or 4 games, you would throw Lester 1/5, Hendricks 2/6 and Arrieta 3/7. And assuming the cubs don't sweep all of those series, you're probably talking about Lackey pitching game 2 or 3 of the WS if they make it that far. Since the AL has home field that might line up well to have Hendricks in game 3/4 depending.

If it a factor anymore? His no hit bid was on the road. Think he is past that

 

[beckdawg]

If it a factor anymore? His no hit bid was on the road. Think he is past that

I mean I'm not saying Hendricks is bad on the road. But his numbers at home are absurdly good. Plus, he's a young pitcher. You have to think that it's better to have a vet like Lackey for a road environment no?

 

[CSF77]

I'm just glad that this is an issue.

 

[Shawon0Meter]

I used to think it made sense to go

Lester
Hendricks
Arrieta
Lackey

That's still the only way that makes sense to me. I value what Hendricks has done in 2016 over Lackey's experience and I still believe in giving Hendricks a home game when possible. If Lackey's experience is a plus, it would be even more beneficial on the road anyway.

Might not have the luxury of setting things up perfectly for the NLCS but I think that's the best way to make it there

 

[CSF77]

I mean I'm not saying Hendricks is bad on the road. But his numbers at home are absurdly good. Plus, he's a young pitcher. You have to think that it's better to have a vet like Lackey for a road environment no?

Think you have to look at the numbers at a park over a overview here. Which takes knowing who you are facing.

I don't worry about any of the 4. Jake if anyone as his walks have been the real issue. Jon should take the CY and he deserves it. Max would have to push 300 SO's to even make a case over Jon's record.

Lackey is a hard ass. Nothing bothers him. So yes on the road don't matter at all.

For sure this will be talked about.

 

[DanTown]

First off, home/road splits aren't truly predictive. It's great he's good at home but it's a single year's stats. For example, last year he was slightly better at home (3.37 ERA vs 4.48) but not enough of a factor that you'd argue the park is helping him that much. His ERA at home essentially matched his FIP where his road ERA was obviously higher.

Secondly, the biggest differences in his home/road splits is BB rate per 9 (3.1 BB on the road, 1.4 at home) and HR per 9 (.4 HR at home, 1.2 HR on the road). While HR rate is obviously helpful, it's probably nothing but random noise that his walk rate is that far off at home and road.

Third, it's important to note that ERA isn't predictive. There are things that say Hendricks is a good pitcher and he's going to likely have success; however, his really low ERA isn't one of those stats.

 

[TL1961]

Good game but they need to lock up the #1 seed now. The Div win is little business this year. And seeing how it helped STL vs us last year it really means little.

I want them to just crush teams to the end to be honest. Put some fear out there vs giving the troops too much R&R. 2008 they did that and they came in cold.

"But they need to..."

They're not doing enough?

Up 7 w what, 16 to go?
In the bag.

 

[TL1961]

First off, home/road splits aren't truly predictive. It's great he's good at home but it's a single year's stats. For example, last year he was slightly better at home (3.37 ERA vs 4.48) but not enough of a factor that you'd argue the park is helping him that much. His ERA at home essentially matched his FIP where his road ERA was obviously higher.

Secondly, the biggest differences in his home/road splits is BB rate per 9 (3.1 BB on the road, 1.4 at home) and HR per 9 (.4 HR at home, 1.2 HR on the road). While HR rate is obviously helpful, it's probably nothing but random noise that his walk rate is that far off at home and road.

Third, it's important to note that ERA isn't predictive. There are things that say Hendricks is a good pitcher and he's going to likely have success; however, his really low ERA isn't one of those stats.

You're overthinking it.

 

[beckdawg]

Even if you ignore the stats aspects of it, a 27 year old pitcher is who's made 1 playoff start is surely going to pitch better in front of a home crowd than he would in a hostile road environment. I just don't see he point in throwing Hendricks in that way. Of the cubs starters he's the most reliant on hitting his spots and what not. If he's distracted for any reason be it crowd, being over hyped, pressure or whatever he could get hit hard. I'd just rather someone like Lackey on the road. In fact, I think you could make an argument for Arrieta and Hendricks games 1/2 and Lester and Lackey games 3/4 for that reason though as I mentioned, I think Lester arguably should be your game 1 starter.

 

[beckdawg]

Because I like counting things, apparently the cubs are 10 games off securing home field in front of the nats. They are 5 ahead of LA.

 

[TL1961]

"They" being the Nats?

 

[beckdawg]

They being the cubs. Magic number vs LA is 5(if they were to pass washington) and 10 for Wash.

 

[CSF77]

"But they need to..."

They're not doing enough?

Up 7 w what, 16 to go?
In the bag.

2008 Lou let the team take a week off basically playing 1 or 2 games. Played Dodgers and got crushed. They came in cold while the other teams had to fight to get in.

That is the big problem clinching early. Lose the killer instinct.

 

[TL1961]

The 2008 team had a double whammy of being picked by some to win it all on the 100 year anniversary.

I believe that was the problem, vs clinching early.

They were so tight in that LA series it was unreal.

 

[CSF77]

The 2008 team had a double whammy of being picked by some to win it all on the 100 year anniversary.

I believe that was the problem, vs clinching early.

They were so tight in that LA series it was unreal.

I watched subs in games for the last week. Think the reg's would see 1 or 2 games that week.

They looked rusty going into that game. The whole RH vs RH got over blown. The Cubs that year were by far the best team. Only Joe's Rays were able to play them to their level.

That is not saying they would have gotten past the Phils. That team earned the ring. But going into it the Cubs were the best team. No way they should have been swept. The Phils came in and beat them with a balanced line up. That overshadowed the fact the Cubs were not playing for a week before the series.

That is why I would rather let them keep the status que. Baez has been giving the guys spells. I can see Szczur used more to give Fowler a rest. That is fine but there is no need to sit the regulars and let them soak losses just to do so.

 

[CSF77]

Even if you ignore the stats aspects of it, a 27 year old pitcher is who's made 1 playoff start is surely going to pitch better in front of a home crowd than he would in a hostile road environment. I just don't see he point in throwing Hendricks in that way. Of the cubs starters he's the most reliant on hitting his spots and what not. If he's distracted for any reason be it crowd, being over hyped, pressure or whatever he could get hit hard. I'd just rather someone like Lackey on the road. In fact, I think you could make an argument for Arrieta and Hendricks games 1/2 and Lester and Lackey games 3/4 for that reason though as I mentioned, I think Lester arguably should be your game 1 starter.

It really depends on their match up. Right now you have to expect Nats vs Dodgers at Was. Unless the Cubs let the Nats' pass them. Nat's are not slowing down. 88 wins so if the Cubs Take it easy they could end up in a dog fight.

The Mets are also hot right now. I feel they might end up the match up. You would have to expect a Thor/Bum 1 game. Cards are free falling so I don't expect them factoring.

So if it is the Mets expect DeGromm vs Lester the Colon game 2. It might be worth it to blow Lackey in that game. Let the old dogs battle and set up Hendricks vs Thor.

Giants I dont see too much change. Game 2 you would expect Shark. Shark is not scary at all. Moore is a lefty and the Cubs crush them. That puts Bum game 3. That series I would rather run Jake game 3. If he is on it become a low scoring game. If he is off you don't waste Kyle that game and soak a loss.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

It really depends on their match up. Right now you have to expect Nats vs Dodgers at Was. Unless the Cubs let the Nats' pass them. Nat's are not slowing down. 88 wins so if the Cubs Take it easy they could end up in a dog fight.

The Mets are also hot right now. I feel they might end up the match up. You would have to expect a Thor/Bum 1 game. Cards are free falling so I don't expect them factoring.

So if it is the Mets expect DeGromm vs Lester the Colon game 2. It might be worth it to blow Lackey in that game. Let the old dogs battle and set up Hendricks vs Thor.

Giants I dont see too much change. Game 2 you would expect Shark. Shark is not scary at all. Moore is a lefty and the Cubs crush them. That puts Bum game 3. That series I would rather run Jake game 3. If he is on it become a low scoring game. If he is off you don't waste Kyle that game and soak a loss.

deGrom is pitching through pain, even after he comes off the DL. If they're the team and Syndergaard is used in the WC you'd have to figure NY would start their next most reliable pitcher in game 1 and that's Colon. There are knowledgeable baseball people that think the Mets are making a serious mistake in bringing deGrom and Matz back this season at all.