IST: Cubs vs Cards

fatbeard

Well-known member
Joined:
Dec 25, 2013
Posts:
13,193
Liked Posts:
11,018
This is where it gets weird with Baez.

He is tied for the lead in DRS at 7.

But is not near to the leaders in UZR150.

Over all Nick Ahmed is the best in league over all. Over 20 UZR150. Compare to Baez 3.5.

Now IDK where Russell falls here honestly.

You can't give DRS or UZR any weight right now. It takes like a season's worth of innings before you've got a big enough sample size to draw conclusions.
 

CSF77

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 16, 2013
Posts:
18,657
Liked Posts:
2,843
Location:
San Diego
You can't give DRS or UZR any weight right now. It takes like a season's worth of innings before you've got a big enough sample size to draw conclusions.

That is true. But that also holds true for judgement on Baez being a lesser SS.

To be honest he has really never had the opertunity to play every day outside of Russell's multiple issues
 

beckdawg

Well-known member
Joined:
Oct 31, 2012
Posts:
11,750
Liked Posts:
3,741
This is where it gets weird with Baez.

He is tied for the lead in DRS at 7.

But is not near to the leaders in UZR150.

Over all Nick Ahmed is the best in league over all. Over 20 UZR150. Compare to Baez 3.5.

Now IDK where Russell falls here honestly.
I wouldn't say it's weird. I think the discrepancy is because they are sort of measuring defense two different ways. The gist of it is the area of balls that they count is different. Both use the same data source but the zones for DRS are smaller. The upshot of that is that DRS swings are bigger. In season that can matter a lot more than over larger samples. As such you can't exactly compare the two 1:1. For example, the range of qualified SS DRS was +21 to -19(40 runs) among SS and for UZR it was +19.5 to -8.6(28.1 runs). And as for the difference in overall rankings, looking at low sample data defensively isn't a good idea but it's even worse an idea to compare multiple players in hierarchies doing it.

To be honest he has really never had the opertunity to play every day outside of Russell's multiple issues
I mean he did. He was in the minors. The front office chose to move him to 2B. I think you can fairly argue he's a better defender now than when they moved him. But I also think between that baseball decision and his career defensive metrics at SS that there's more than enough data out there to suggest his SS is good not great though admittedly he can make some overall amazing plays.

As I said before, I honestly don't care if he plays SS or 2B. But I do have a problem with people over hyping his defense. He has a career 1.0 UZR/150 at 2B and +19 DRS. He's tied for 5th in DRS with min 1500 innings at 2B since 2014 and 18th in UZR/150. At SS he's +12(13th) in DRS and -0.4 UZR/150(24th). I think you can rightly argue that some of the difficulty of the plays he makes isn't rightly counted. That's why personally I view him as good rather than the more average-ish those numbers imply. But to suggest he's more than that.... I just don't see the data to support it. And that's why I've suggested I think people overvalue the amazing plays he makes and forget the routine plays he misses because that's basically what the data is suggesting here.
 

SilenceS

Moderator
Staff member
Donator
Joined:
Apr 16, 2013
Posts:
21,846
Liked Posts:
9,041
I wouldn't say it's weird. I think the discrepancy is because they are sort of measuring defense two different ways. The gist of it is the area of balls that they count is different. Both use the same data source but the zones for DRS are smaller. The upshot of that is that DRS swings are bigger. In season that can matter a lot more than over larger samples. As such you can't exactly compare the two 1:1. For example, the range of qualified SS DRS was +21 to -19(40 runs) among SS and for UZR it was +19.5 to -8.6(28.1 runs). And as for the difference in overall rankings, looking at low sample data defensively isn't a good idea but it's even worse an idea to compare multiple players in hierarchies doing it.


I mean he did. He was in the minors. The front office chose to move him to 2B. I think you can fairly argue he's a better defender now than when they moved him. But I also think between that baseball decision and his career defensive metrics at SS that there's more than enough data out there to suggest his SS is good not great though admittedly he can make some overall amazing plays.

As I said before, I honestly don't care if he plays SS or 2B. But I do have a problem with people over hyping his defense. He has a career 1.0 UZR/150 at 2B and +19 DRS. He's tied for 5th in DRS with min 1500 innings at 2B since 2014 and 18th in UZR/150. At SS he's +12(13th) in DRS and -0.4 UZR/150(24th). I think you can rightly argue that some of the difficulty of the plays he makes isn't rightly counted. That's why personally I view him as good rather than the more average-ish those numbers imply. But to suggest he's more than that.... I just don't see the data to support it. And that's why I've suggested I think people overvalue the amazing plays he makes and forget the routine plays he misses because that's basically what the data is suggesting here.
yea, his improvement hasn’t been immense since ya know Russell decided to a **** sucker in life while hitting like a AA player. Baez growth at short is his ability to focus on one position. He is the best SS in the league at this point and last year all around. Let’s movr him for a dude that hasn’t hit in two years but he makes the routine plays better.
 

fatbeard

Well-known member
Joined:
Dec 25, 2013
Posts:
13,193
Liked Posts:
11,018
yea, his improvement hasn’t been immense since ya know Russell decided to a **** sucker in life while hitting like a AA player. Baez growth at short is his ability to focus on one position. He is the best SS in the league at this point and last year all around. Let’s movr him for a dude that hasn’t hit in two years but he makes the routine plays better.

Saying that the only thing Russell does better than Baez is make more routine plays is such a mountain of bullshit.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.a...am=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13,d
 

Parade_Rain

CCS Donator
Donator
Joined:
Aug 23, 2012
Posts:
9,995
Liked Posts:
3,624
My favorite teams
  1. Chicago Cubs
  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Illinois Fighting Illini
I find this debate really uninteresting so I don't want to go down it again but I think saying he was "moved" is a bit strong. He played SS last night in Iowa. Think it's more accurate to say they are giving him time at 2B because he's more likely to move around and probably isn't an every day starter.
I’m not sure you put Russell at a premium position with what he got suspended for. Not a good look.
 
Last edited:

beckdawg

Well-known member
Joined:
Oct 31, 2012
Posts:
11,750
Liked Posts:
3,741
Let’s movr him for a dude that hasn’t hit in two years but he makes the routine plays better.
This is entirely a strawman argument and I haven't claimed this is what should happen. Why are you still coming at me over this shit? I'm not the one arguing the point you seem to think I am. I've literally said multiple times I don't care who plays at SS and I'm cool with whatever Joe decides. The only issue I have is people claiming that Baez is a top 5 DEFENSIVE SS. He's just not. I think you can make the case he's top 10 especially if you factor in the difficult plays he makes others don't.

Honestly I just don't understand why you have such a hard on for this one particular point. Baez can be the best SS and for that matter best player not named trout in the league and still be a good but not great defensive SS. I mean Trout isn't the best defensive CF in baseball and may not be top 5 either but he's still easily the best player in baseball. Baez has over 3000 innings between SS and 2B. That's more than enough data to judge him on and that's 5 years for him to grow. And none of that data suggests he's a clear cut top 5 defender at either 2B or SS. And like I said, that's fine. But when you have objective data and choose to ignore it because it doesn't fit your world view that's just being a homer.

Another argument I don't get is how Baez some how is less valuable playing 2B were joe to choose that. He spent the majority of his break out 2018 playing you guessed it 2B. I'll say it again for what feels like the 100th time.... if Baez is hitting like he is now IT DOES NOT MATTER WHERE HE PLAYS. I mean you could play him at 3B for all the fucks I give. What matters to me is how the daily roster fits together as a team. That's why I don't care about Heyward playing CF. It's why I don't care about Bryant playing either corner OF. I want Joe to put guys where they are in their best position to succeed full stop. If that's Javy 162 games a year at SS then cool. If that's Russell coming up and playing every game at SS and moving Baez to 2B then cool. If that's Javy playing like 80-90% of the games at SS and sometimes moving to 2B when the situation calls for it then cool.

Why people see that logic as unreasonable is beyond me. Put your best 8 guys out there every day(save for rest days) and move them around to fit the puzzle as needed. That's how I see things.
 

beckdawg

Well-known member
Joined:
Oct 31, 2012
Posts:
11,750
Liked Posts:
3,741
You don’t put a wife beater at SS, which is a position of leadership.
I don't see how position factors into this. Like... I get people not wanting him on the team after a DV issue. But is it some how ok for him to play idk LF if he beats his wife? Why does SS specifically matter more?
 

Parade_Rain

CCS Donator
Donator
Joined:
Aug 23, 2012
Posts:
9,995
Liked Posts:
3,624
My favorite teams
  1. Chicago Cubs
  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Illinois Fighting Illini
I don't see how position factors into this. Like... I get people not wanting him on the team after a DV issue. But is it some how ok for him to play idk LF if he beats his wife? Why does SS specifically matter more?
What don’t you understand that SS is the premium position in the IF? It’s a position of leadership.
 

beckdawg

Well-known member
Joined:
Oct 31, 2012
Posts:
11,750
Liked Posts:
3,741
Also FWIW, Russell is starting again tonight in Iowa at SS.
 

beckdawg

Well-known member
Joined:
Oct 31, 2012
Posts:
11,750
Liked Posts:
3,741
What don’t you understand that SS is the premium position in the IF? It’s a position of leadership.
If you say so. I don't personally view any one position as more "leadership"-y than another save for maybe catcher and that's just because catchers call the game and tend to end up managers at a higher rate. I think leaders are leaders regardless of position. Just playing SS doesn't make you a leader and thus lacking leadership skills doesn't disqualify you from playing SS in my opinion.
 

CSF77

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 16, 2013
Posts:
18,657
Liked Posts:
2,843
Location:
San Diego
Ok this topic is getting crazy here.

Might as well toss gas on it.

 

CSF77

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 16, 2013
Posts:
18,657
Liked Posts:
2,843
Location:
San Diego
Also FWIW, Russell is starting again tonight in Iowa at SS.


And he is hitting .217 there to date. He is not ready for MLB pitching and Theo made the right choice.

Add to it with out him they have gone 16-6 sense that shit fest beginning.

I think the whole it ain't broke don't fix it applies.

Now if Javy just goes error happy and Russell brings his BA up to a respectable .300 BA as any MLB quality hitter feasting on minor league pitching normally does. Then this script flips.

Right now I'm seeing the dialog as...


They are doing great but ya they need Russell at SS because Baez is just not good enough there. Even though they are 16-6 in their run.

Other side. Wife beater. Nope.

Well ya know what. You are both wrong. You make moves that make your team better. Right now Russell is not playing at a level that makes the Cubs better. He is making Almora look like Pete Rose ATM.

I do believe that players have to force a roster movement by production and success. That takes effort and hard work. When the results justify a change then it should happen.

All this bickering it just wasted effort on all of us right now.
 

Parade_Rain

CCS Donator
Donator
Joined:
Aug 23, 2012
Posts:
9,995
Liked Posts:
3,624
My favorite teams
  1. Chicago Cubs
  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Illinois Fighting Illini
On a World Series contender, what positions are not premium ones?
Don’t kid yourself. Everyone wants to be SS. That’s why Jeter wasn’t about to move off of it.
 

beckdawg

Well-known member
Joined:
Oct 31, 2012
Posts:
11,750
Liked Posts:
3,741
Don’t kid yourself. Everyone wants to be SS. That’s why Jeter wasn’t about to move off of it.
I don't think I agree with this. I would agree that yes some players care enough about it to make a stink were a team to even think about moving them. But I think that's largely down to the player's personality. There's some players out there that only care about winning and were a manager to tell them to move off their position so that it helps the team win they wouldn't care. Famously I remember Jackie Robinson played his first season at 1B because that's what the team needed despite only ever playing SS in the negro leagues. Now sure I think if you're telling a guy he's not going to start then they are going to be competitors and want to play. But IDK.... like I don't really think Jason Heyward gives a **** if he's in RF or CF or LF. That doesn't strike me as something he cares about as long as the team is winning.

And honestly, those are the type of players I want on my team. They are probably harder to find because to some extent you have to have an ego to get to the majors. So you're probably right that the majority of players in the majors are like this but I don't think saying they all are that way is accurate.
 

chibears55

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 18, 2013
Posts:
13,554
Liked Posts:
1,915
Ok this topic is getting crazy here.

Might as well toss gas on it.

If so, I take it as they dont want negative press against him now while their trying to push him in a trade..
Their trying to sell him off as someone rehabilitating and dont want the press to keep him looking bad in the eyes of a potential new team who may hesitate to make a deal for not wanting negative press on their end and from their fan base..
 

chibears55

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 18, 2013
Posts:
13,554
Liked Posts:
1,915
Why people see that logic as unreasonable is beyond me. Put your best 8 guys out there every day(save for rest days) and move them around to fit the puzzle as needed. That's how I see things.

I agree with this, but Russell not even close to being one of the best 8 they should play everyday..
 

beckdawg

Well-known member
Joined:
Oct 31, 2012
Posts:
11,750
Liked Posts:
3,741
If so, I take it as they dont want negative press against him now while their trying to push him in a trade..
Their trying to sell him off as someone rehabilitating and dont want the press to keep him looking bad in the eyes of a potential new team who may hesitate to make a deal for not wanting negative press on their end and from their fan base..
Like... i don't get this narrative at all. I'm not suggesting the people saying the cubs have done this are out right liars but I've seen plenty of negative takes from local media in regard to Russell since all this came out. So, why would the cubs suddenly now start doing this? And more importantly would they really be that dumb? This is typical streisand effect territory. If they were in fact doing this they are just making the pr nightmare worse.

To be blunt, does anyone give a **** about Chapman in NY? Does anyone even mention Jose Reyes? Does anyone mention Osuna? Not saying that's a good thing but the story on this stuff quickly fades if you just let it. So, I really don't get why anyone in cubs PR would be dumb enough to stir this up.
 

beckdawg

Well-known member
Joined:
Oct 31, 2012
Posts:
11,750
Liked Posts:
3,741
I agree with this, but Russell not even close to being one of the best 8 they should play everyday..
And if that's the case like I said that's fine. If I'm honest I'd probably keep sending descalso out there because he really seems to fit the pro ABs they need out of a lead off hitter. Were Russell called up i'd probably have him just be the primary sub for him and Baez on days off unless Russell really starts proving he is a better hitter. I'd probably just have Zobrist only play OF and send down Zagunis. That's probably how I'd play things but to me whether Baez plays SS or 2B when Russell plays with him is irrelevant which is why I don't get this entire debate.
 

Top