Now that the season is over

[CSF77]

But looking into JD more.

Coming up he was a .400 OBA hitter in the minors and basically got beat upat the majors and finally released in 2013.

Now he is a .400 OBA hitter again now that he has caught up to the talent

Almora in the minors was a .330 or less except at A ball and got a .376 over 220 PA. Fueled by a .329 BA

Again his success is tied to his BABIP. not by disapline.

 

[Castor76]

For me, it should be about shoring up the pen. Invest in the players who are going to affect the most games. Even if it becomes a starting staff of 5-6 IP then the pen.

 

[SilenceS]

For me, it should be about shoring up the pen. Invest in the players who are going to affect the most games. Even if it becomes a starting staff of 5-6 IP then the pen.

The whole league has bullpen problems. Most of the time these things tend to even out. Bullpen pitchers are really year to year on success. Only top, top of the line stay good for more than a couple of years.

 

[Steve_A]

But looking into JD more.

Coming up he was a .400 OBA hitter in the minors and basically got beat upat the majors and finally released in 2013.

Now he is a .400 OBA hitter again now that he has caught up to the talent

Almora in the minors was a .330 or less except at A ball and got a .376 over 220 PA. Fueled by a .329 BA

Again his success is tied to his BABIP. not by disapline.

So maybe the J.D. comp wasn't that good but my original argument still stands dude.
Most people did not predict him to be this bad /
the general consensus seemed to be give him more time to play and see what he has.

 

[CSF77]

So maybe the J.D. comp wasn't that good but my original argument still stands dude.
Most people did not predict him to be this bad /
the general consensus seemed to be give him more time to play and see what he has.

When they drafted him they had Castro at SS at the time and I thought Castro at CF with better D. Then they went and messed with Castro and made him suck.

They learned from that and drafted their prototypical hitter after.

Almora was a 1st year mistake. Nothing more or less. They never went HS hitter after in the 1st.

For a #6 pick he is a bust.

 

[Steve_A]

Quintana is durable and reliable for who he is but
just wondering if it'd be better to let him go and take the
Oakland route or the Brewer route and try it out with the likes of
Bailey / Gonzalez especially with Chatwood / Graveman in the picture as well
to try to go for Cole or more position players at this point.

What do you guys think?

 

[CSF77]

I might take it back fro Whit => Schwarber. 37 HR is real value.

 

[CSF77]

Quintana is durable and reliable for who he is but
just wondering if it'd be better to let him go and take the
Oakland route or the Brewer route and try it out with the likes of
Bailey / Gonzalez especially with Chatwood in the picture as well
to try to go for Cole or more position players at this point.

What do you guys think?

Well tough call. I really dislike Q. I'm not going to lie. So my opinion is tainted.

I like Chatwood. He has gotten a bad rap here in his year 1. But he can get it up to 98 in short stints. This year he has been used sparingly as a starter so you really can't make much of his spits.

1 time through he is a bad ass then it falls. But he has not built the endurance to run 5-6 innings every 5th day. So it is hard to say how he would respond as a starter again.

I wouldn't want more than 1 experiment or crutch on a champion level club and Lester is that guy right now.

So I wouldn't mind going off the path and trade both Q and Chatwood.

They are locked into 133 M right now. Threshold is 208. Basically they have 75 Mil to play with before getting into the 1st tax hit. I expect a reset myself so don't expect this 246 again.

So with this in mind trading Q and Chatwood moves 23 M that would go into that 74M

Rizzo they will pull his opt. 14.5M So that goes down to 59M now. (Why I said not Rendon and Cole)

Do you want Bryant? If so it will cost 16M I would trade him and continue rebuilding the next wave. Say you do that cushion goes to 43M

Baez 8 Mil but he could get 10 M also. Say 10M 33M. Now Cole or Rendon is unlikely.

See how we are going here.

 

[Castor76]

I might take it back fro Whit => Schwarber. 37 HR is real value.

As I said, Schwarber and Russell for Whit. KC does lose a lead off hitter but gains a power bat and GG level SS. Couple that with Gardner (only made 7.5 M this season), and the Cubs could have an everyday line up. I don't think Baez will ever be more than a .330 OBP at best, but he hits enough that you can "hide" him in between good OBP guys. So, Whit, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras, Gardner, Heyward, Hoerner could be a solid line up. They could trade Bryant and try to re-sign Castellanos for about 11 M and save 5 M. D might take a hit.

 

[CSF77]

But this is what I feel Theo will do.

1. Try to trade Bryant. Get back a pitcher.

2. Internal battle for the #5. Chatwood/Mills/Rhea/Alozay. Losers go to the pen.

3. Retain Q and Rizzo.

4. Extend Baez and move him to 3B. Keep Nico at SS.

5. Keep Wick/Weick/Underwood/Ryan as the set up crew for Kimbrel.

Basically do nothing and keep a cushion set up for adding if they are contending.

 

[CSF77]

As I said, Schwarber and Russell for Whit. KC does lose a lead off hitter but gains a power bat and GG level SS. Couple that with Gardner (only made 7.5 M this season), and the Cubs could have an everyday line up. I don't think Baez will ever be more than a .330 OBP at best, but he hits enough that you can "hide" him in between good OBP guys. So, Whit, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras, Gardner, Heyward, Hoerner could be a solid line up. They could trade Bryant and try to re-sign Castellanos for about 11 M and save 5 M. D might take a hit.

If I had to guess right now they extend Schwarber and Baez and trade Bryant. That is my gut check. Bryant will cost too much going forward and the time is right to move him.

 

[Steve_A]

As I said, Schwarber and Russell for Whit. KC does lose a lead off hitter but gains a power bat and GG level SS. Couple that with Gardner (only made 7.5 M this season), and the Cubs could have an everyday line up. I don't think Baez will ever be more than a .330 OBP at best, but he hits enough that you can "hide" him in between good OBP guys. So, Whit, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras, Gardner, Heyward, Hoerner could be a solid line up. They could trade Bryant and try to re-sign Castellanos for about 11 M and save 5 M. D might take a hit.

Now that I think things over KC might do it.
Especially with him losing so much speed last year.
Still wonder if he's going to be the ideal piece considering his 124 strikeouts,
but would be okay if they do it I guess.

 

[Parade_Rain]

My buddy who lives in Wrigleyville is over the moon that the Cubs are eliminated. He’s happy that he’ll finally have his neighborhood back to normal. Cubs games seriously have a negative effect on the quality of life on the people who live work and play around the ballpark.

My buddy who lives in Wrigleyville thinks the opposite of yours.

 

[CSF77]

On that prediction I believe that they will look to reset tax and after Lester goes off payroll they will replace him. They will take the 10M opt out and save 15M.

Taijuan Walker
Marcus Stroman
Masahiro Tanaka (interesting with Yu here I could honestly see this one myself)
Aaron Sanchez

Etc.

But at this point if they are smart in 2020 they push Marquez up 2 levels. He is in A+ right now and they could start him at AA and then hit Iowa to finish the season. That pushes him into Lester's rotation spot.

So I see it as:

2020
Yu
Hendricks
Lester
Q
Chatwood (most likely)

2021
All you have is Yu and Hendricks
So say they get Tanaka and promote Marquez. By then Alozay should be adjusted to the league and takes a spot.

Yu
Hendeicks
Tanaka
Alozay
Marquez

Then IMO they should focus more on drafting and using international funds towards high ceiling pitching.

 

[Steve_A]

But this is what I feel Theo will do.

1. Try to trade Bryant. Get back a pitcher.

2. Internal battle for the #5. Chatwood/Mills/Rhea/Alozay. Losers go to the pen.

3. Retain Q and Rizzo.

4. Extend Baez and move him to 3B. Keep Nico at SS.

5. Keep Wick/Weick/Underwood/Ryan as the set up crew for Kimbrel.

Basically do nothing and keep a cushion set up for adding if they are contending.

Agree with the logistics behind your thinking,
but wonder if he's got the balls to trade Bryant.
He'll bring the most back but I think Schwarber is the one that get's traded.
Really sad if he leaves because I thought he has a shot at a next J.D. Martinez
but I think that the narrative of need change will force his leave.

 

[Steve_A]

On that prediction I believe that they will look to reset tax and after Lester goes off payroll they will replace him. They will take the 10M opt out and save 15M.

Taijuan Walker
Marcus Stroman
Masahiro Tanaka (interesting with Yu here I could honestly see this one myself)
Aaron Sanchez

Etc.

But at this point if they are smart in 2020 they push Marquez up 2 levels. He is in A+ right now and they could start him at AA and then hit Iowa to finish the season. That pushes him into Lester's rotation spot.

So I see it as:

2020
Yu
Hendricks
Lester
Q
Chatwood (most likely)

2021
All you have is Yu and Hendricks
So say they get Tanaka and promote Marquez. By then Alozay should be adjusted to the league and takes a spot.

Yu
Hendeicks
Tanaka
Alozay
Marquez

Then IMO they should focus more on drafting and using international funds towards high ceiling pitching.

I hope that this isn't the way they go because the next 2 years will blow up the core for good.
Hope Tom can find the love in himself to give these guys the best for the limited window they have.

 

[CSF77]

Agree with the logistics behind your thinking,
but wonder if he's got the balls to trade Bryant.
He'll bring the most back but I think Schwarber is the one that get's traded.
Really sad if he leaves because I thought he has a shot at a next J.D. Martinez
but I think that the narrative of need change will force his leave.

Schwarber is more rare right now. 37HR from the left.

Lets face it the Cubs are RH heavy ATM.

Bryant 31 HR
Baez 29 HR (could be at 40 also)
Contreras 24 HR
Nico (He is going to be on the opening day roster)

VS

Schwarber 37 HR
Rizzo 27 HR
Heyward 21 HR

I'm not getting into Nick because I doubt they resign,.

The only other lefties are SH or Kemp.

It really depends on what the best deal is. But at the end of the day they are not going to deal with Boras on any of his players.

 

[CSF77]

I hope that this isn't the way they go because the next 2 years will blow up the core for good.
Hope Tom can find the love in himself to give these guys the best for the limited window they have.

I really believe that they will reset next year and then go over the following. Masahiro Tanaka (32) is not old okay. That is a 3-4 year deal in value. We are talking 60M here.

I just believe that locking up Baez and Schwarber should be their investment for 2020. Rest is just setting up for the next tax break.

 

[Castor76]

Now that I think things over KC might do it.
Especially with him losing so much speed last year.
Still wonder if he's going to be the ideal piece considering his 124 strikeouts,
but would be okay if they do it I guess.

K's has never been a big concern for me. Of the top 40 players in OBP so far this season, 29 have struck out at least 100 times. 16 Have struck out 120 or more times. Of the top 40 K batters this season, 18 have an OBP of .340 or better, including the top 6.

 

[CSF77]

Another guy that they can target is Andrelton Simmons (31) in 2021. Move Nico to 2B then.
Jackie Bradley Jr. (31) F/A
Mookie Betts (28) (Bingo)

So it is very intelligent to reset next year and open up payroll for Mookie IMO