**OFFICAIL** Bears 2024 Regular Season News & Schleisse - FTO Preferred - No ALTS! Derailing Is Discouraged!

[SugarWalls]

Yeah I am saying based on historical data noted in the article the effect is 0.05 to 0.1. They compared pro day and combine times and also looked at people who ran at the combine and their pro day as well.



Ask again after he works out. His pro day and combine are likely more important than for other prospects given he barely played this past season. If he is fluid and does well in the agility drills and then runs a good 40 time at his pro day then think he ends up in the top 16.

We’re still talking about entirely different things.

 

[gobullschi]

Depends on when the run on WRs starts. I see him going late first round early second

Would people be mad if the Bears traded down with Carolina and took him @ 9?

 

[maxhatter]

Cooper Kupp ran a 4.62 40

He knows how to get open just like JSN does.

Would love to be able to be in a position to draft JSN, but I think he will probably go in the latter half of the first round. Cooper Kupp did run a 4.62 40. He also was drafted in the 3rd round. Kupp had 3 seasons in which he gained 1,600 yards receiving (the other season he had 1,413) JSN only had 1 season. In his other two seasons, he had 49 yards in 2020 and 45 yards in 2022. There have been a number of receivers who ran a 4.5 40. that have been successful in the NFL. But if JSN runs a 4.62 40, he's not being drafted in the first round.

 

[dabears70]

Yeah I’m not worried about his 40. I’m worried about his availability.

Yeah the hammy thing and how long it took, and maybe is still taking, to heal is absolutely a worry. Just have to trust the GM, Coaches, scouts and medicals on that one though.

 

[dentfan]

I'm not worried about his 40 time, but the fact is he'll run "slow". I'm more concerned with the fact that he's exclusively a slot receiver. Fields likes to throw the deep routes, even in college. He needs someone who can go up and compete for those ball, someone who can create separation off the LOS and provide a target Fields is comfortable with.

I see what you’re saying, but we have those guys. We have Money at the Y and Claypool in the X. They’re both boundary guys. We need a good Z/slot to give Fields an outlet and threaten the lower field. Now, yes, JSN is not a burner or deep threat weapon, but he doesn’t have to be, especially for what we need.

 

[remydat]

We’re still talking about entirely different things.

Maybe. My point is the Zybek camera system appears to have resulted in pro day and combine times getting closer together. Using data going back to 2010, the difference was 0.08 seconds. Using more recent data post Zybek, the difference is 0.035 seconds. So I am just not understanding where you are getting 0.2 seconds from.

 

[dabears70]

Would love to be able to be in a position to draft JSN, but I think he will probably go in the latter half of the first round. Cooper Kupp did run a 4.62 40. He also was drafted in the 3rd round. Kupp had 3 seasons in which he gained 1,600 yards receiving (the other season he had 1,413) JSN only had 1 season. In his other two seasons, he had 49 yards in 2020 and 45 yards in 2022. There have been a number of receivers who ran a 4.5 40. that have been successful in the NFL. But if JSN runs a 4.62 40, he's not being drafted in the first round.

I got you but Kupp played at Eastern Washington compared to JSN's Ohio St and something i absolutely think matters even though the professionals can't admit it but Kupp is white. Don't think it matters much but it's in the back of minds.

 

[Anytime23]

I got you but Kupp played at Eastern Washington compared to JSN's Ohio St and something i absolutely think matters even though the professionals can't admit it but Kupp is white. Don't think it matters much but it's in the back of minds.

you make me sick!

 

[SugarWalls]

Maybe. My point is the Zybek camera system appears to have resulted in pro day and combine times getting closer together. Using data going back to 2010, the difference was 0.08 seconds. Using more recent data post Zybek, the difference is 0.035 seconds. So I am just not understanding where you are getting 0.2 seconds from.

From Zybeks study:

Hand Time v. FAT Time Data​

Analysis:
As detailed in the previous section, most variables were minimized or eliminated. The timer that measured the difference in the Hand time to the FAT time was started when the athlete lifted their hand and stopped when the coach at the 40 yard line depressed the start button on the stop watch. (These times were recorded for all athletes both 40 yard runs.)

As illustrated in Figure 3, the measured differences between the hand held and the FAT timer ranged from 0.10 seconds to 0.25 seconds. The time differences were evenly distributed between 0.10 and 0.25 seconds, with the average being 0.175 seconds.

Hand-timed versus Electronic-timed 40 Yard Dash | Zybek Sports

www.zybeksports.com

This is just from their study, but in my experience it’s typically 0.24. Don’t have any studies to promote this but 10 years of experience.

 

[RiDLer80]

People obsessed with JSN 40 time but you don't need to be sub-4.5 guy to get open. Lookn at St. Brown in Detroit. He also ran a 4.6.

 

[Anytime23]

From Zybeks study:

Hand Time v. FAT Time Data​

 

[Butkus34]

If JSN is a 4.5 or so guy I am ok with it. The guy gets open. My brother sent me this about his teams skill players and they do ok

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631392565256912896

 

[Les Grossman]

Would people be mad if the Bears traded down with Carolina and took him @ 9?

Yes I think people would be. That’s pretty early

 

[remydat]

From Zybeks study:

Hand Time v. FAT Time Data​

Analysis:
As detailed in the previous section, most variables were minimized or eliminated. The timer that measured the difference in the Hand time to the FAT time was started when the athlete lifted their hand and stopped when the coach at the 40 yard line depressed the start button on the stop watch. (These times were recorded for all athletes both 40 yard runs.)

As illustrated in Figure 3, the measured differences between the hand held and the FAT timer ranged from 0.10 seconds to 0.25 seconds. The time differences were evenly distributed between 0.10 and 0.25 seconds, with the average being 0.175 seconds.

Hand-timed versus Electronic-timed 40 Yard Dash | Zybek Sports

www.zybeksports.com

This is just from their study, but in my experience it’s typically 0.24. Don’t have any studies to promote this but 10 years of experience.

As ok, was not familiar with that. I am saying when actually looking at the differences in 40 times at pro days and the combine, the difference is actually less.

As aforementioned, when looking at the players that ran both, we saw decent discrepancies in the average 40-times for the 2010-2019 draftees: 0.06 for RBs/WRs and 0.08 for TEs.

And when you actually look at more recent data, the difference is smaller.

With RBs/WRs/TEs that were drafted from 2015-2019 and ran at both the Combine and pro day, on average, they ran 0.05 seconds faster at their pro day; and the t-test also believes these times came from two totally distinct groups. We are already approaching a small sample though; 2015-2019 only gives us 85 players that ran at both – 34 RBs, 37 WRs, and 14 TEs.

Our sample size is reduced once again if we look at 2016-2019, and 2016 also happens to be the year that the Combine changed their technology to the Zybek system.

Across all three positions, the average pro day 40-time is 0.035 seconds faster than the average Combine time (among the 57 players that did both).

So not sure that 0.24 difference actually exists in the data from actual pro days and combines.

 

[RiDLer80]

If JSN is a 4.5 or so guy I am ok with it. The guy gets open. My brother sent me this about his teams skill players and they do ok

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631392565256912896

If he's in the mid 4.5s that's good enough. Plenty of successful have ran in that range or shower.

Antonio Brown ran 4.56. Jarvis Landry ran a 4.65. Tyler Boyd ran a 4.58. We've already mentioned Kupp and St. Brown.

Running a high 4.5, low 4.6 isn't a career-ender. JSN gets open with quickness and leverage.

 

[Dejo]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631715018990395399

 

[bamainatlanta]

Jerry Rice ran in the 4.5’s.
Larry Fitzgerald ran in the 4.6’s
Anshan Boldin ran a 4.7.

If JSN is a 4.5 or so guy I am ok with it. The guy gets open. My brother sent me this about his teams skill players and they do ok

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631392565256912896

How did Kittle last until the 5th round??

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

Would people be mad if the Bears traded down with Carolina and took him @ 9?

Yup

 

[SugarWalls]

As ok, was not familiar with that. I am saying when actually looking at the differences in 40 times at pro days and the combine, the difference is actually less.

As aforementioned, when looking at the players that ran both, we saw decent discrepancies in the average 40-times for the 2010-2019 draftees: 0.06 for RBs/WRs and 0.08 for TEs.

And when you actually look at more recent data, the difference is smaller.

With RBs/WRs/TEs that were drafted from 2015-2019 and ran at both the Combine and pro day, on average, they ran 0.05 seconds faster at their pro day; and the t-test also believes these times came from two totally distinct groups. We are already approaching a small sample though; 2015-2019 only gives us 85 players that ran at both – 34 RBs, 37 WRs, and 14 TEs.

Our sample size is reduced once again if we look at 2016-2019, and 2016 also happens to be the year that the Combine changed their technology to the Zybek system.

Across all three positions, the average pro day 40-time is 0.035 seconds faster than the average Combine time (among the 57 players that did both).

So note sure that 0.24 difference actually exists in the data from actual pro days and combines.

I believe what they are saying is that when they ran the Zybek system on pro day and compared it to the combine FAT times there was on average a 0.05 difference. The Zybek can be ran on the video rather than in person, so in theory they can retroactively run the Zybek system on any film. The 0.05 is attempting to explain the difference in the automated times.

If the time is reported by other outlets we don’t know if it has been corrected by the Zybek system immediately, though it appears the NFL has implemented this system in 2016 it’s a little unclear.

 

[remydat]

I believe what they are saying is that when they ran the Zybek system on pro day and compared it to the combine FAT times there was on average a 0.05 difference. The Zybek can be ran on the video rather than in person, so in theory they can retroactively run the Zybek system on any film. The 0.05 is attempting to explain the difference in the automated times.

If the time is reported by other outlets we don’t know if it has been corrected by the Zybek system immediately, though it appears the NFL has implemented this system in 2016 it’s a little unclear.

I think they looked at every player that ran the 40 both at the combine and also their pro day. They then took the 40 times as reported at each and determined the difference was 0.05 but has been declining. So unless the guys running the pro days made the adjustment I don't think the author did. In any event, I don't think they are drastically different at this point as it seems somewhere at adjustment as been made to better align pro day times with combine times.