Currently, Rodgers accounts for roughly 32 mil against the Packers cap. The reason for this is Option bonus's are all treated as "likely to be picked up". The following are different scenarios and how they effect the Packers Cap.
1) Traded prior to June 1 40 mil cap hit for 2023 can not be spread across 2 years. Rodgers cap hit for 2023 increases from 32 m to 40 mil and the Packers have a net increase of roughly 8 mil. Team that recieves Aaron Rodgers is responsable for his option bonus.
2) Traded post June 1. (but prior to the first day of the season) 40 mil cap hit can now be spread across two years. Team that recieves Aaron Rodgers is responsable for his option bonus.
3) Cut/released both the 40 mil and the 58 mil become immediately due for a total of 100 mil. Cutting him before June 1st would trigger a dead cap of about $100 million in 2023. Even if they cut him after June 1, it will be a $31.5 million hit this year and $68.2 million cap hit next year while only saving them $50,000 (this year). Packers lose rights to Aaron rodgers
4) Retire -pre June 1 If he were to retire before June 1, it would trigger a $40 million cap hit in 2023, a nearly $9 million increase to his cap number if he were to play. Packers retain rights to Aaron rodgers
5) Retire-Post June 1 That would put his 2023 cap number at $15.8 million and 2024 number at $24.5 million while saving them $15.8 million in the process Packers retain rights to Aaron rodgers
6) Remain on the team-Packers pick up option. 2023 cap hit is as is now reported, 31-32mill, nothing changes as it pertains to the Packers Cap space. Packers retain rights to Aaron rodgers-until the next option bonus becomes due. Then it is decision time again.
7) Remain on the team - Packers do not pick up his option. This essentialy makes 2023 the last year of Aaron Rodgers contract. With all past and present bonus's being charged to 2023. 100 mil. Packers retain rights to Aaron rodgers through 2023. He is not a cut, the the Packers get no cap releif in that regard. His contract is over after 2023, so there are no void years or additional years to spread this huge cap number across, he is essentially a player playing on the last year of his contract.
The only leverage the Packers have against the Jets depends solely on how important it is to the Jets to get Aaron Rodgers into camp prior to OTA's etc. If the jets are willing to wait until after the draft, and possibly until the start of the season, the Packers have zero leverage. Now, that being said, I am sure the Jets do want Aaron Rodgers in camp prior to the first game of the year.
But, if a trade is not exectuted by the Packers prior to the draft, they are in no hurry to execute a trade until the first game of the year. Of course they ultimately are taking the chance that the Jets pivot, and instead go for another option, in which case the Packers are totally fucked. Worse case scenario is if the Packers Gm mishandles this so bad he gets nothing for Aaron Rodgers when he leaves.
Who is going to blink first?
What might Aaron Rodgers do?
My guess is that the Packers and Jets come to an agreement, a trade is executed just prior to the draft, and that trade will likley be a 2nd rounder in 2023, and a conditional pick in 2024.
But if for some reason, a trade is not excecuted prior to the draft, things will get very interesting. This is when Rodgers could give a big middle finger to the Packers, retire after the draft, but prior to June 1. It doesn't put the packers over the top, but it still puts them in a bad place, because they have to prepare for the fact he might "unretire".
