**OFFICAIL** Bears 2024 Regular Season News & Schleisse - FTO Preferred - No ALTS! Derailing Is Discouraged!

[dennehy]

Overwhelming means that between picks fiftieth and seventy-fifth overall over the last ten drafts only two offensive tackles selected have been good. Bryan O'Neill and Terron Armstead. Maybe Abraham Lucas in Seattle becomes the third.

This is not for lack of trying either.

Going by your faulty reasoning, because many good players are available at those spots, and picked later:

2022: three picked between 50-75, two started 15 games in their rookie year.
2021: Cosmi and Redunz, meh.
2020: zero drafted in that range.
2019: Zero drafted
2018: Connor Williams, who has started almost every game he's been healthy. Brian O'Neill, good player. Bradon Parker, Geron Christian, meh.
2017: Zero drafted
2016: Zero drafted
2015: Jake Fisher, Ty Sambrilo both meh. Rob Haverstein, good player. Jamon Brown, meh.
2014: Jake Mewhort, bust. Justin Britt, solid player. Billy Turner, solid player. Morgan Moses, solid player.
2013: Terron Armstead, great player.

So in summation the chances of getting a guy who starts for several seasons is actually about half. Well over a third of those guys started 64 games or more or are on track to. Are you likely to get a pro bowler, no, but that true for every position.

 

[bears51/40]

Hello…

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1641949324975407105

Would love to see it play out that way.

 

[Montucky]

Going by your faulty reasoning, because many good players are available at those spots, and picked later:

2022: three picked between 50-75, two started 15 games in their rookie year.
2021: Cosmi and Redunz, meh.
2020: zero drafted in that range.
2019: Zero drafted
2018: Connor Williams, who has started almost every game he's been healthy. Brian O'Neill, good player. Bradon Parker, Geron Christian, meh.
2017: Zero drafted
2016: Zero drafted
2015: Jake Fisher, Ty Sambrilo both meh. Rob Haverstein, good player. Jamon Brown, meh.
2014: Jake Mewhort, bust. Justin Britt, solid player. Billy Turner, solid player. Morgan Moses, solid player.
2013: Terron Armstead, great player.

So in summation the chances of getting a guy who starts for several seasons is actually about half. Well over a third of those guys started 64 games or more or are on track to. Are you likely to get a pro bowler, no, but that true for every position.

Justin Britt, Rob Haverstein, Morgan Moses, Billy Turner...dude these guys suck. They play because there aren't that many good tackles in the league and every week sixty-four guys gotta be starting somewhere, but realistically you're no better off with Morgan Moses than you are what the Bears currently have. Both are varying degrees of "not good enough".

 

[bamainatlanta]

Going by your faulty reasoning, because many good players are available at those spots, and picked later:

2022: three picked between 50-75, two started 15 games in their rookie year.
2021: Cosmi and Redunz, meh.
2020: zero drafted in that range.
2019: Zero drafted
2018: Connor Williams, who has started almost every game he's been healthy. Brian O'Neill, good player. Bradon Parker, Geron Christian, meh.
2017: Zero drafted
2016: Zero drafted
2015: Jake Fisher, Ty Sambrilo both meh. Rob Haverstein, good player. Jamon Brown, meh.
2014: Jake Mewhort, bust. Justin Britt, solid player. Billy Turner, solid player. Morgan Moses, solid player.
2013: Terron Armstead, great player.

So in summation the chances of getting a guy who starts for several seasons is actually about half. Well over a third of those guys started 64 games or more or are on track to. Are you likely to get a pro bowler, no, but that true for every position.

I don’t understand why it’s looked at from just picks 50 to 75. Bears have picks from 9 all the way to 258. This just might be one of the dumbest arguments ever to happen on CCS.

Bears fucked up an off-season with the DL when FA had exactly zero elite DL players to sign! It had minimal long term above average players to sign as well. Montucky is just one of the least intelligent or knowledgeable posters on this board. He proves it every year.

 

[Montucky]

KC Chiefs
Orlando Brown, starting LT— 83rd pick overall
Andrew Wylie, starting RT — UDFA

Philly Eagles
Jordan Mailita starting LT — 233rd pick

Lane Johnson, starting RT — 4th overall pick

The Chiefs "spent" a first rounder on Orlando Brown Jr., so its not really an honest comparison.

The Eagles have never stopped investing heavily in the trenches. Even though they got Travis Kelce or Jordan Mailata late, they're still drafting guys like Landon Dickerson and Andre Dillard in the top fifty.

 

[dennehy]

Justin Britt, Rob Haverstein, Morgan Moses, Billy Turner...dude these guys suck. They play because there aren't that many good tackles in the league and every week sixty-four guys gotta be starting somewhere, but realistically you're no better off with Morgan Moses than you are what the Bears currently have. Both are varying degrees of "not good enough".

This is not true.

No team has great players at every position. Getting solid starters is obviously important and many can be found after the top 50.

 

[bamainatlanta]

The Chiefs "spent" a first rounder on Orlando Brown Jr., so its not really an honest comparison.

The Eagles have never stopped investing heavily in the trenches. Even though they got Travis Kelce or Jordan Mailata late, they're still drafting guys like Landon Dickerson and Andre Dillard in the top fifty.

And Dillard didn’t work out and they never signed Travis Kelce either. Last I checked, he played TE in KC.

But you said that OT’s can’t be found in the later rounds and the overwhelming majority aren’t starters. Then I came with the facts that 3 of the 4 starting OT’s in the SB were drafted 83rd or later. Lmao. You’re so fucking awful at this.

 

[Montucky]

I don’t understand why it’s looked at from just picks 50 to 75. Bears have picks from 9 all the way to 258. This just might be one of the dumbest arguments ever to happen on CCS.

Bears fucked up an off-season with the DL when FA had exactly zero elite DL players to sign! It had minimal long term above average players to sign as well. Montucky is just one of the least intelligent or knowledgeable posters on this board. He proves it every year.

You are not fixing the problems the Bears have on the fronts with the picks the Bears have. It is not happening. At some level Ryan Poles inherited this mess since the Bears have steadfastly refused to pursue elite offensive linemen for basically the last decade, but he also has had more than enough resources to address the problem. He simply hasn't.

And what he's done with the defensive line is reckless and negligent. The at-all-costs pursuit of off-ball linebackers and wide receivers while not doing anything about edge rusher or offensive tackle is beyond stupid.

 

[Montucky]

This is not true.

No team has great players at every position. Getting solid starters is obviously important and many can be found after the top 50.

Right, you can have average players at off-ball linebacker, wide receiver, offensive guard, etc. and still be good. Look at the two teams in the Super Bowl!

But offensive tackle and edge rusher? Nah, you need elite guys there. And if you don't have them then you better be spending money and draft picks on those positions until you do.

 

[Montucky]

And Dillard didn’t work out and they never signed Travis Kelce either. Last I checked, he played TE in KC.

But you said that OT’s can’t be found in the later rounds and the overwhelming majority aren’t starters. Then I came with the facts that 3 of the 4 starting OT’s in the SB were drafted 83rd or later. Lmao. You’re so fucking awful at this.

Right, Andre Dillard didn't work out because Jordan Mailata kept getting better. But the Eagles were not so reckless and stupid as to just see a promising late round pick and hand over the keys to such an important position. Had Mailata not panned out the way he had who knows how it would've gone with Dillard. I guess we'll find out this year.

 

[HearshotKDS]

You don't think they can take care of T with picks #53, #61 or #64 if they don't go T at #9?

I see relying on a rookie to be a plus starter from day 1 as incredibly risky in the first place, and as a sliding scale that goes from "risky" to "reckless" once you leave the top tier of OTs in this draft which will almost certainly be gone by pick 53. But unlike DL or CB where if a rookie struggles early the consequence is your D gives up more points, the consequence of a OT struggling is higher % chance Fields gets injured.

The Bears' approach in the offseason - the trade and free agency - did just the opposite of what you're claiming. In the draft, they can, and likely will, go OL, DL and DB (in some order), with some skill position and depth added somewhere. They are not forced to go with any one position in Round 1, in spite of what many think. It's funny how fans simultaneously prop up Braxton Jones, but assume the Bears must draft OL at #9 in 2023.

What's really strange is how fans seem to have Poles and/or Flus on the hot seat in the middle of a rebuild. That could not be further from the case.

Meanwhile, Poles should avoid a CB who might bust, presumably to draft one of those "bust proof" positions.

I think youre either reading too far into my post or are trying to argue against other peoples posts in your response to mine. But to respond to the parts of your post that were relevant to mine: I dont think a Braxton Jones level talent at RT would be "good enough" - Justin Fields cant have another season where he leads the league in sacks.

I never mentioned FLus and never said Poles was on the hot seat, i said if he neglects OL and the OL gets Fields injured (think Joe Burrow style pure dropback blindside knee destruction) then its going to negatively impact his job as GM.

Overall I think OT is much more important to the teams short, medium, and long term future than a good CB prospect (I mentioned this in my post) - and since theres no competent RTs on the roster and even Poles has stated to media we are looking to the draft to address OT then they need to go with the highest % chance of finding a competent starter which is their top pick (I dont think it has to necessarily be #9 but they need one of the 3-4 tier 1 OTs).

All positions have a chance to bust but not at the same % (i linked this in my post), fortunately for the Bears round 1 OTs have a relatively lower % chance to bust than other positions (including CB) and a higher % chance to hit than other positions (including CB) so my opinion Bears need to take the lowest risk at the position of biggest need with their most valuable remaining asset (the FRP). I wouldnt feel this strongly if therewas an alternative at OT on the roster but there's not - if the pick doesnt work the OL and ergo Fields is kind of fucked.

 

[dennehy]

Right, you can have average players at off-ball linebacker, wide receiver, offensive guard, etc. and still be good. Look at the two teams in the Super Bowl!

But offensive tackle and edge rusher? Nah, you need elite guys there. And if you don't have them then you better be spending money and draft picks on those positions until you do.

Andrew Wylie?

And two guys drafted after 75?

And one #1 overall pick.

Those are the starting OTs in the super bowls.

Almost every team has an OT starter drafted outside the top 50, good teams and bad.

 

[bamainatlanta]

I see relying on a rookie to be a plus starter from day 1 as incredibly risky in the first place, and as a sliding scale that goes from "risky" to "reckless" once you leave the top tier of OTs in this draft which will almost certainly be gone by pick 53. But unlike DL or CB where if a rookie struggles early the consequence is your D gives up more points, the consequence of a OT struggling is higher % chance Fields gets injured.



I think youre either reading too far into my post or are trying to argue against other peoples posts in your response to mine. But to respond to the parts of your post that were relevant to mine: I dont think a Braxton Jones level talent at RT would be "good enough" - Justin Fields cant have another season where he leads the league in sacks.

I never mentioned FLus and never said Poles was on the hot seat, i said if he neglects OL and the OL gets Fields injured (think Joe Burrow style pure dropback blindside knee destruction) then its going to negatively impact his job as GM.

Overall I think OT is much more important to the teams short, medium, and long term future than a good CB prospect (I mentioned this in my post) - and since theres no competent RTs on the roster and even Poles has stated to media we are looking to the draft to address OT then they need to go with the highest % chance of finding a competent starter which is their top pick (I dont think it has to necessarily be #9 but they need one of the 3-4 tier 1 OTs).

All positions have a chance to bust but not at the same % (i linked this in my post), fortunately for the Bears round 1 OTs have a relatively lower % chance to bust than other positions (including CB) and a higher % chance to hit than other positions (including CB) so my opinion Bears need to take the lowest risk at the position of biggest need with their most valuable remaining asset (the FRP). I wouldnt feel this strongly if therewas an alternative at OT on the roster but there's not - if the pick doesnt work the OL and ergo Fields is kind of fucked.

You simply don’t draft based on the fear of a position being less safe of a pick. That’s lunacy.

 

[HearshotKDS]

You simply don’t draft based on the fear of a position being less safe of a pick. That’s lunacy.

Good thing thats not why im suggesting OT in the first.

 

[Montucky]

Andrew Wylie?

And two guys drafted after 75?

And one #1 overall pick.

Those are the starting OTs in the super bowls.

Almost every team has an OT starter drafted outside the top 50, good teams and bad.

Again, its extremely disengenous to use Orlando Brown Jr.'s draft position when taken by the Ravens when the Chiefs traded essentially a first round pick to get him. That's what it really cost, that's the investement the Chiefs made (and the Bears never do).

And really, this idea that the same dumpster diving mentality around the position that the Bears have had since John Tait will eventually pay off is dumb. But Bears fans just love it if it means they can bring in more mediocre wide receivers who will watch their careers wither in Chicago.

 

[dennehy]

Again, its extremely disengenous to use Orlando Brown Jr.'s draft position when taken by the Ravens when the Chiefs traded essentially a first round pick to get him. That's what it really cost, that's the investement the Chiefs made (and the Bears never do).

And really, this idea that the same dumpster diving mentality around the position that the Bears have had since John Tait will eventually pay off is dumb. But Bears fans just love it if it means they can bring in more mediocre wide receivers who will watch their careers wither in Chicago.

Every point you've tried to make has been proven incorrect. Even if you count Brown as a first rounder, he wasn't. And even if you do, still half of the OTs in the super bowl were either 7th round pick or undrafted.

Most every good team has tackles taken outside the top 50.

Spending a second rounder on a tackle isn't dumpster diving. They only have one first rounder. And Poles has been here for one year, I think there's a good chance he will invest more in OT over the next few years, as they did when he was in KC and as Cunningham did in Philly. Maybe even #9 his year.

 

[Montucky]

They only have one first rounder.

How on earth the team picking first overall managed to somehow trade down from that first overall pick and still not have more than one pick in the top fifty is my central complaint. The short-sighted trade down from first overall and the horrible trade for Chase Claypool are why this offensive line thing is such a crisis. The Bears don't have the resources.

 

[dennehy]

How on earth the team picking first overall managed to somehow trade down from that first overall pick and still not have more than one pick in the top fifty is my central complaint. The short-sighted trade down from first overall and the horrible trade for Chase Claypool are why this offensive line thing is such a crisis. The Bears don't have the resources.

Try harder, this is incredibly boring.

 

[Montucky]

Try harder, this is incredibly boring.

Well look you're just going to make any excuse possible for this shit clinging to the nonsense belief that these late second/early third round picks are going to the basis of the Bears next competitive window becuase..uh..Billy Turner got drafted in that range like five years ago or something?

It would be one thing if the Bears had one of the tackle situations solved and had the pass rush already figured out. Then it'd be fine to defer this oustanding component to a later round. But your plan, and ostensibly Ryan Poles' plan, for this is totally wrong. You are building these units from absolute zero and laying the foundation with leftovers at the end of day two. It is destined to fail.

 

[dabears70]

I don’t see how this logic is missed.

Of course it is entirely possible that the bears draft 3 picks here and 1 of them is a tackle and all 3 are day 1 starters, however there is a huge difference between possible and likely

Probably because it's not missed by anyone. People are just saying that just because the odds over the years don't favor it doesn't mean it can't happen and hasn't happened.