It's not always that easy though. If Paris Johnson goes top 8 (and there are needs at 7 and 8) then taking the 2nd best OT in the top 10 where none of these guys are sure fire studs, seems like as big of a risk as taking Carter.
I do agree with you that 2024 is the year to make a real run. The likely 2 top 15 picks means you can potentially get 2 studs to add to the team. And if you agree that 2024 is the year to make the run, then logically you should want as many shots at players as possible this year instead of taking the best player at any particular position. I think the trade down is the preference at 9. But if they can get 1 of those studs a year early (and Poles identified 7 potential studs in this draft), they probably draft at 9. But even then, I'm sure they'll weigh 1 blue chip player over potentially getting 2 players in that next tier with a trade down.