dabears70
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Yep.
Josh Allen needed 911 more yards from year 2 to year 3 to get 4k. He blew past it to 4,544 yards. A total improvement of 1,459.
Fields needs an improvement of 1,758 to hit 4k. That's probably why it's not going to happen.
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I'd say that Josh Allen was a known project coming out of college. He was drafted because of his size and arm strength, and it was clear he needed work being a polished passer. His career completion percentage in college was 56% vs Fields 68%. I'd also note that Allen showed rushing ability in college and his best year of rushing was better than Fields' - 523 to 484. Point being Allen was drafted on raw ability where Fields was already considered NFL ready.
I cannot help but think that Fields should have shown a lot more at this point in his career outside of rushing ability. He was ahead of Josh Allen as far as being a polished QB that was supposedly NFL ready.
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So that sounds like a lot of context that doesnt exactly answer the question, but I appreciate the difference.
How about push this one in a direction - If Josh Allen can improve by 1000-1500 yards in the air in an offseason through hard work and dedication to his craft, why the doubt that Fields would be able to improve by that range? Even if they are "considered NFL-ready" that is always the hype that we get fed for rookies. I really dont think any QB is NFL ready until they prove otherwise in NFL games.
Is passing for about 3500 while also being a dynamic runner not an achievable AND good goal for him to have going into this year? Come in a little under or a little over, whatever. But at its heart, is 1000 or more yards of improvement as a passer not enough to give you more hope in his career?
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Because Fields was closer to his ceiling coming in.
And also, why do we always think our QBs are going to have a historic turnaround like Fields to Allen, Trubisky to Drew Brees? Just because it's happened twice doesn't mean it's likely. I'd also add that Lamar Jackson was a raw prospect coming in too.
BTW, we had this same conversation during Mitch Trubisky's offseason going into year 3. After Mitch's 3,200 yard performance you thought he was a shoe-in for 4k or very close - he regressed.
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dbldrew
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Im a Bears fan so was not following the development of Allen so didnt have any opinion on him. As I said I generally believe that anyone can improve but I watched every game of Fields and way too many times his refusal to throw the ball to an open guy was extremely concerning. So my faith that Fields is going to be able to overcome his inability to mentally process whats happening on the field is very low. And if the QB cant do that, they dont stay a starting QB for very long.
Now its completely possible that Fields was just overwhelmed last year and things will start to click for him this year, lots of QBs take a big step forward in year 3, Allen throw for 4500 yards and Fields said he is going to throw for 4000 so we will see how it goes for him.
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We are optimistic that the QB we have can make a difference and improve through hard work. Nothing about a player's progress is bound to happen but we can enjoy the ride while we find out.
This idea of a player's ceiling is another item that I take issue with. It feels like nonsense that we give life to by all agreeing that it exists. What is their "ceiling" and how close do they have to be to it to be a successful QB? Does any QB reach their ceiling? Did Mahomes hit his yet? Can someone top their ceiling? If he doesnt reach his ceiling, can he still win a superbowl? If one person in 2018 said that Allen's ceiling was to become Tim Tebow II, and another person said that Allen's ceiling was to be a QB that consistently takes his team to the playoffs and win games, who was right after the 2019 season?
These are all rhetorical of course, I am not expecting answers, just explaining why I dont think this concept of a ceiling is anything more than a meaningless phrase that gets batted around when we compare draft prospects.
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I completely agree. I think these terms are bullshit, but I decided to use them because it's commonplace on CCS and it would simplify me getting my point across.
For a very long time I've thought:
"Raw talent" = athletes who aren't good football players.
"Ceiling" = excuse for a player who's not playing up to the draft position (aka "upside").
"Floor" = Basically the Mendoza line for a football player's potential often defending a player who's good enough to play but will never be great.
Britbuffguy
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Yeah, it got real annoying seeing WRs wide open on every play.
Oh wait, that almost never happened.
dbldrew
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except that it did, lots of breakdowns all last year of guys open and fields not throwing the ball.
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Bears got WRs with 4 second 40 yard dash times...and it almost NEVER happened that anyone was open.
?
Inb4, there's more to getting open than speed. ?
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That was uncomfortable to watch. lol
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Still there? What suggests he ever had NFL starter talent? One great season against FCS talent? Surrounded by a lifetime of not throwing a totality of another seasons worth of passes? His single NFL game with over 3 throws that he completed more than 52% of his passes? It's way more likely his talent was being 10X's the athlete of other FCS players not raw NFL quality QB talent.
His upside is a poor man's Anthony Richardson and Anthony Richardson is a huge question mark as an NFL passer.
"Friday's first attempt, for example, was a quickie toss to tight end Brayden Willis that ended up in the dirt. His second throw was just as off target," Barrows wrote. "He had tailback Jordan Mason running a shallow route across the line of scrimmage and threw it in front of him by four feet."
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Fields/Peyton Manning? Do you even watch football?
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No, @Anytime23 told you all that he was better than Pace(should have been common sense) and that he’s regarded as the best GM in the NFL by people who cover the league.
Sorry that your favorite Gm was a failure.
Mighty Joe Young
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Yeah, except those guys for the most parts were fucking morons and in a lot of those cases, Fields didn't even have a full 2.6 seconds of a clean pocket to throw, the NFL average - most of those guys flat ignored that and ignored how horrible our center and tackle play on both ends was that year. You'll ignore it too because otherwise you'll have to admit you got it wrong.
Low bar - most of the people who covered the league and called Ballard the best GM in the league over the years did so because unlike most gms, he treats them and their wives to dinner and kisses their asses in return for positive coverage; its obvious quid pro quo.
Those who don't engage in that and take a serious look at both of them know both have been absolute ass.
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How do you know Fields was closer to his ceiling?
He was playing in a system and with a level of talent that allowed him to hold the ball for an extended period, he has made strides to improve that aspect of his game, he now has at least NFL starter level talent surrounding him for the first time and he is finally in the second year of the same offense. Everything would suggest an improvement in play and stats.
LOL. Thanks youz for yourin usin' wordz you thunk is bull poo so us simpl CCS fellers can understood. You be an stand up feller @Blank Rankbutt
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You can find breakdowns like that for any QB in the league.
I’ll bet you don’t evaluate him looking at all 22 and even if you did, you don’t know his progressions and what the route options are for the receivers based on coverage and leverage.
He’s a chunk play hunter who happens to work behind a leaky front line with receivers that struggle to separate. It’s a bad combination that Poles has worked to remedy.
He definitely needs to improve by taking what the defense is willing to give but I still want him to go after the big plays if they’re available.
I’ve seen what he can do with protection and some real weapons. I believe he shows considerable improvement this year.
This guy is whip smart and he’s an elite physical specimen. That’s a rare combination. Plus, he’s the hardest worker on the team. Guys with talent, smarts and drive succeed.
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Glad we're on the same page there.
To the point, having a superior talent at WR to lead a quality corps of receiving talent could easily have downstream benefits for every other receiving target. Everyone can agree that Fields needs to rip it more, but part of that comes from trusting the receiver to make a play, and another big portion comes from having to think less due to familiarity.
Both of these should improve. Fields should be confident in his connection with Moore, and he should be more comfortable in the offense.
I think the eye test, and not passing statistics, are going to tell us where his growth is taking him. All the same, I think we can expect significant improvement in yards when our starters are Moore, Mooney and Claypool and not Pettis and St Brown. With that in mind, I think fans have every reason to be optimistic for next year.