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None of my points were meant to be stand alone reasons to make that trade, so to argue them individually is ludicrous. They are merely factors to consider.Um yes he is one year further away from his contract because he already provided you with 1 year of service so that is a quite irrelevant point. You are getting the player earlier so you getting value back earlier.
Cincy would do that trade in a heartbeat but would still require more draft capital. You can find no trade in NFL history where a team made a trade of a current pick for a future pick and did not get more value. Even in a scenario similar to yours.
And of course there is a way of knowing that. Go look up trades of future picks. Good teams trade with bad teams all the time. The team that is giving up the current year pick always gets more back period.
1 year of service has less value to a team in rebuild mode.
We are talking about a rather unique set of circumstances here. Giants need a QB, there are no good ones in this draft (their opinion). next year there are more. if that is there mindset, they need a QB, they want to draft one in 2023, and have the draft capital to do so,