Offseason discussion/rumors

[TC in Mississippi]

This reminds me of a trade I suggested when I was 9 years old. Outside of Baez why would TB want this pile of shit and on top off it you want their closer. Trades need to make sense for both teams and the other team isnt stupid.

First of all Tampa Bay is actively pursuing Montero, Rondon has put up great numbers as a closer and Soler has a much higher ceiling than you think he does. It actually makes a lot of sense. It's the kind of deal they're likely going to get if they decide to deal him. They want multiple pieces.

 

[Omeletpants]

First of all Tampa Bay is actively pursuing Montero, Rondon has put up great numbers as a closer and Soler has a much higher ceiling than you think he does. It actually makes a lot of sense. It's the kind of deal they're likely going to get if they decide to deal him. They want multiple pieces.

Baez doesnt get Archer straight up so who would you have to add? Even Maddon has no faith in Rondon and we dont win the WS if he is our closer so his value is little. Soler sucks and I'm betting the Cubs are getting poor offers for him. Monterro is near the end and has little value and even less at $14M. And the other guy proposes we get their closer too? LOLOLOLOLOLO. Gibt mir ein breaken

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I'm not going to argue with you because it's just wagging tongues at this point. I mean who the hell knows? I will go on record though and predict that the Cubs land Archer at the Winter Meetings, and the deal won't involve Baez.

 

[Omeletpants]

I'm not going to argue with you because it's just wagging tongues at this point. I mean who the hell knows? I will go on record though and predict that the Cubs land Archer at the Winter Meetings, and the deal won't involve Baez.

That would be fine with me. I'm hoping we keep Baez

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

Well there are going to be guys gone no matter what including Fowler, Hammel, Coghlan, Wood and likely Chapman. So whatever team heads into 2017 will be a new team regardless and will likely come with new challenges. This pitching staff hasn't had and significant injuries in 2 full seasons. That just doesn't happen so expect it again is to court disappointment. I guess my view of baseball is teams build a core group and then shuffle pieces from season to season. I'd still like to see that young pitcher they keep coveting and of course beyond Rizzo and Bryant who the core is depends on who you ask. I would add Contreras and Schwarber to that simply because in Contreras' case catcher is such a hard position to fill well and the fact Schwarber's bat looks truly special. Everyone talks about a possible Baez trade but frankly if someone wanted Russell for the pitcher you want and we would then slide Baez to SS I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand. I frankly have no idea which one will have the better overall career. I will say that in light of the World Series win none of these questions bother me quite as much as they have in years past. I trust in our FO and everything else is just the enjoyment of speculation.

You're taking it too literal. Obviously there will be SOME change. But most of that change you mentioned is salary related which is always gonna happen anyways. I'm fine with trading for that young pitcher.... but not at the expense of weakening another position on a team that can obviously win it all again with only a few minor tweaks.

 

[CSF77]

In value:

Baez pulled 2.7 WAR in 450 AB's. So you could almost put him at 4 WAR as a full time player.

Rondon .6 with injury and loss of his job. 1.6 last 2 years. No reason why he would not go back to 1.6 on a less competitive team.

This is the key: injury was a part but his stuff is good enough to close. He is not a shut down closer. 1.6 WAR is fair value in 2018.

So that is 5.6 WAR going over alone.

Montero is predicted at .6 WAR in 224 AB's. That is also a fair value based on his D and occasional HR.

So 6 WAR going over. This not even getting into Soler.

 

[beckdawg]

5:20pm: FanRag’s Jon Heyman reports (on Twitter) that the Braves are sending three prospects to St. Louis. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that infielder Luke Dykstra and right-hander Chris Ellis are two of the names that are headed to the Cardinals (Twitter link). Right-hander John Gant will be a part of the deal, too, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link).

That's in return for Jamie Garcia. Ellis was #17 on mlb.com's top 30 for the braves. Gant was #21. Dykstra was #29.

 

[The-0]

That would be fine with me. I'm hoping we keep Baez

I think the jay signing opens almora to trade. Heyward gets the bulk of time in center with jay going against tough lefties.
Prediction: Final deal archer for soler almora szcur and happ.

 

[beckdawg]

I think the jay signing opens almora to trade. Heyward gets the bulk of time in center with jay going against tough lefties.
Prediction: Final deal archer for soler almora szcur and happ.

Hoyer already has come out and said they plan to play both jay and almora in CF in 2017

 

[CSF77]

Hoyer already has come out and said they plan to play both jay and almora in CF in 2017

Not to mention Happ will be in AA. Rays have said that they are still looking to contend and Happ can't be the top bill.

That is why Baez makes sense if they deal Archer. Baez has the same control at less cost. His floor is 4 WAR right now. Not a AA 2B 2 years away player.

Add to it Almora is not blocked. He is being given a year to learn his place on the team. The Cubs are not in a situation to just let him go through growing pains. So they plan to compete still and are not passing on him. If they were planning to deal then they would have resigned Fowler vs a 1 year deal on Jay as a safety net for Almora.

So he is going nowhere

Soler lost value sense 2015. He could end up with anywhere around minus WAR to 4 WAR depending mostly on his health. He holds a solid BB and almost league avg SO ratio. So the basic tool set is there. What he needs is an opertunity to play every day. Then be healthy enough to play every day.

Rays are a match because they need hitting talent and that team really are not contenders. Sure they are giving lip service to the fans but let's be real. They can not afford to buy a contending team and the brain trust that made them great are gone.

So in reality losing Archer would have to be offset by raw WAR value and cheaper control.

Archer is predicted at 4.1 WAR with a 13-11 record. On a contender it jumps to maybe 6 WAR. So the Cubs have to put together 5-6 WAR value just to get him. That is Baez and Jimenez IMO as a flat rate.

So no Happ etc is not getting it done.

 

[DanTown]

Not to mention Happ will be in AA. Rays have said that they are still looking to contend and Happ can't be the top bill.

That is why Baez makes sense if they deal Archer. Baez has the same control at less cost. His floor is 4 WAR right now. Not a AA 2B 2 years away player.

Add to it Almora is not blocked. He is being given a year to learn his place on the team. The Cubs are not in a situation to just let him go through growing pains. So they plan to compete still and are not passing on him. If they were planning to deal then they would have resigned Fowler vs a 1 year deal on Jay as a safety net for Almora.

So he is going nowhere

Soler lost value sense 2015. He could end up with anywhere around minus WAR to 4 WAR depending mostly on his health. He holds a solid BB and almost league avg SO ratio. So the basic tool set is there. What he needs is an opertunity to play every day. Then be healthy enough to play every day.

Rays are a match because they need hitting talent and that team really are not contenders. Sure they are giving lip service to the fans but let's be real. They can not afford to buy a contending team and the brain trust that made them great are gone.

So in reality losing Archer would have to be offset by raw WAR value and cheaper control.

Archer is predicted at 4.1 WAR with a 13-11 record. On a contender it jumps to maybe 6 WAR. So the Cubs have to put together 5-6 WAR value just to get him. That is Baez and Jimenez IMO as a flat rate.

So no Happ etc is not getting it done.

Your WAR doesn't change based on how good the team is.

 

[Omeletpants]

I think the jay signing opens almora to trade. Heyward gets the bulk of time in center with jay going against tough lefties.
Prediction: Final deal archer for soler almora szcur and happ.

I'm fine with this

 

[CSF77]

Your WAR doesn't change based on how good the team is.

Stronger D. Concider if Almora and Heyward have GG level D. Russell and Rizzo GG. The amount of runs they save is well beyond a "normal" team.

Baseball Ref:

At its most basic level, our pitching WAR calculation requires only overall Runs Allowed (both earned and unearned) and Innings Pitched. Since we are trying to measure the value of the pitcher's performance to his team, we start with his runs allowed and then adjust that number to put the runs into a more accurate context.

 

[CSF77]

I'm fine with this

Sure. Never would happen. Ace for a AA player and the back up OF. Yep 100% will happen. 5 WAR for maybe 3 WAR next year. That is if Soler plays every day.

 

[anotheridiot]

Hoyer already has come out and said they plan to play both jay and almora in CF in 2017

They said there will be a legitimate competition. Almora is Theos first draft pick of his regime, now we realize its been 5 years, its time to push him. If this 8 million dollar bench player is what it takes to get Almora all in and winning the starting job, then I am even better with it.

 

[brett05]

Looking like McCutchen is being traded to the Nationals. You have to wonder, at least in the short term, if the Pirates will continue to be a contender in the NL Central or if it's the Cubs and Cardinals and not much else. I do like what Milwaukee is doing but have to figure they're at least a year or so away.

If the trade does go thru, Pitts is done again. No reason that the Cubs can't win 100 games again. They are a great team in arguably the worst division in all of baseball

 

[brett05]

The Cubs could avoid trading Baez by doing this:

Tb sends Archer to Cubs
Cubs send Arrieta to Red Sox
Red Sox send top prospects, Cubs send lower level prospects to TB.

We essentially swap pitchers and get younger and more cost controlled. This way we only have to worry about replacing Lackey after 2017. And we would likely only lose guys that are blocked like Candelario instead of Baez.

If Boston is balking at giving top specs for Sale, they certainly ain't coming close to doing anything like that for Jake

 

[brett05]

How about we just keep the gang together and go back to back?

It's what I would do. You can only trade Jake if the team falls apart before the Aug 31st trade deadline.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If Boston is balking at giving top specs for Sale, they certainly ain't coming close to doing anything like that for Jake

They might give up a guy like Swihart who you could then flip for an Archer. A guy like Michael Kopech could probably be had for 1 year of Arrieta. There are a ton of possibilities. It's not that Boston won't give up it's guys it's that the White Sox have placed a huge price tag on Sale similarly to what Philly did with Cole Hamels for 2 years before finally moving him. I'm not actually saying the White Sox are wrong here, they should be able to start a serious rebuild on Sale's back, but if the rumors are true that Yoan Moncada has to be part of any deal with Boston well then I don't think it will get done. I heard one media speculate that the Red Sox had offered Benintendi, Swihart and Devers for Sale and got turned down again instead insisting Moncada be added to the package. From everything I've heard and read only players the Red Sox are not willing to deal are Moncada and Jason Groome.

 

[brett05]

They might give up a guy like Swihart who you could then flip for an Archer. A guy like Michael Kopech could probably be had for 1 year of Arrieta. There are a ton of possibilities. It's not that Boston won't give up it's guys it's that the White Sox have placed a huge price tag on Sale similarly to what Philly did with Cole Hamels for 2 years before finally moving him. I'm not actually saying the White Sox are wrong here, they should be able to start a serious rebuild on Sale's back, but if the rumors are true that Yoan Moncada has to be part of any deal with Boston well then I don't think it will get done. I heard one media speculate that the Red Sox had offered Benintendi, Swihart and Devers for Sale and got turned down again instead insisting Moncada be added to the package. From everything I've heard and read only players the Red Sox are not willing to deal are Moncada and Jason Groome.

It could happen, I just don't see them offering more than an org 7ish type for a deal with Jake. Age and control and change in leagues as my reasons his value is lower to Boston.