Offseason discussion/rumors

[TC in Mississippi]

It could happen, I just don't see them offering more than an org 7ish type for a deal with Jake. Age and control and change in leagues as my reasons his value is lower to Boston.

Most say a top 100 prospect but not a top 50. Kopech falls at 67. I think that's probably Arrieta's value. What we don't know, of course, is if Boston values Kopech higher than that which they might.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

If the trade does go thru, Pitts is done again. No reason that the Cubs can't win 100 games again. They are a great team in arguably the worst division in all of baseball

St. Louis will be very formidable in 2017. Milwaukee is probably a year away but they are on the up-swing, as well. Pittsburgh's window appears to be closing and the Reds are not a threat.

We'll be favored to win the division (as we should) but St. Louis should be competitive.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

St. Louis will be very formidable in 2017. Milwaukee is probably a year away but they are on the up-swing, as well. Pittsburgh's window appears to be closing and the Reds are not a threat.

We'll be favored to win the division (as we should) but St. Louis should be competitive.

I tend to agree with you but St. Louis has work to do and it's doubtful that they could go into the season strong enough to be favored in the Division. Doesn't mean they can't win it in a long season but it would probably have to include some injuries on the Cubs part. If they were to sign say Justin Turner and Dexter Fowler and get some catching depth I'd say they would be almost a WC lock and nip at the Cubs heels. That's a lot of work to do though.

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

Most say a top 100 prospect but not a top 50. Kopech falls at 67. I think that's probably Arrieta's value. What we don't know, of course, is if Boston values Kopech higher than that which they might.

Why on earth would you trade Jake for a prospect? That makes the team worse this year.

 

[beckdawg]

It could happen, I just don't see them offering more than an org 7ish type for a deal with Jake. Age and control and change in leagues as my reasons his value is lower to Boston.

Your prices suggestions seem all over the map. Boston's #7 prospect isn't even a top 100 prospect and is a 50 grade prospect which is hoping for a league average player. Historically, a pitcher like Arreita with 1 year of control would return something like 2 of Michael Kopech, Rafael Devers and Jason Groome plus perhaps some 45 grade prospects on the back end.

That sort of offer would be comically low. The padres at the past deadline got Josh Naylor(#88 prospect 55 grade) Carter Capps and Jarred Cosart for Cashner(who had a 5.98 ERA) and a 45 grade prospect. I mean hell you could probably argue that the Cardinals got more for Garcia than a 50 grade prospect.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Why on earth would you trade Jake for a prospect? That makes the team worse this year.

Not if you trade for Archer. Archer has a career 3.51 ERA with 3.48 FIP and with the league switch and the Cubs defense an ERa in the mid 2's is not hard to imagine. He also has a career 9.34 K/9 better than Jake's 9.22, and has been over 10 for 2 years. Both men have similar career BB/9 and HR/9 and are frankly similar concerns in those areas. Say you were able to swing the deal for Archer and get Michael Kopech for Arrieta. This year you would have a rotation of Lester, Hendricks, Archer, Lackey and Montgomery while next year Kopech will likely be up as a 4 or 5 while he learns the ropes and Montgomery either sticks or the team would certainly have money for a guy like Yu Darvish. Now that will be staff with at least 3 pitchers under 30 under team control for multiple years. Possibly 4 if Montgomery works out. No, I don't think it makes us worse, it makes us no less than equal as a pitching staff with the possibility to be better and sets up the future nicely.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Your prices suggestions seem all over the map. Boston's #7 prospect isn't even a top 100 prospect and is a 50 grade prospect which is hoping for a league average player. Historically, a pitcher like Arreita with 1 year of control would return something like 2 of Michael Kopech, Rafael Devers and Jason Groome plus perhaps some 45 grade prospects on the back end.

That sort of offer would be comically low. The padres at the past deadline got Josh Naylor(#88 prospect 55 grade) Carter Capps and Jarred Cosart for Cashner(who had a 5.98 ERA) and a 45 grade prospect. I mean hell you could probably argue that the Cardinals got more for Garcia than a 50 grade prospect.

Yeah you're right, I probably was low for Arrieta in saying one top 100 prospect. It would likely be 2. Groome is supposedly untouchable though, but Kopech's name has come up a lot.

 

[brett05]

St. Louis will be very formidable in 2017. Milwaukee is probably a year away but they are on the up-swing, as well. Pittsburgh's window appears to be closing and the Reds are not a threat.

We'll be favored to win the division (as we should) but St. Louis should be competitive.

I agree St Louis can be competitive. The division is still putrid.

 

[brett05]

Your prices suggestions seem all over the map. Boston's #7 prospect isn't even a top 100 prospect and is a 50 grade prospect which is hoping for a league average player. Historically, a pitcher like Arreita with 1 year of control would return something like 2 of Michael Kopech, Rafael Devers and Jason Groome plus perhaps some 45 grade prospects on the back end.

That sort of offer would be comically low. The padres at the past deadline got Josh Naylor(#88 prospect 55 grade) Carter Capps and Jarred Cosart for Cashner(who had a 5.98 ERA) and a 45 grade prospect. I mean hell you could probably argue that the Cardinals got more for Garcia than a 50 grade prospect.

Im just saying what Boston thinks of the deal not what Jake is worth in general. Relax a bit will ya?

 

[beckdawg]

Yeah you're right, I probably was low for Arrieta in saying one top 100 prospect. It would likely be 2. Groome is supposedly untouchable though, but Kopech's name has come up a lot.

I wasn't specifically saying Groome(or the other two for that matter) just meant something in that range of value. For example, Boston might want to deal Jackie Bradley Jr. more than any of their prospects in which case you'd reevaluate based on whatever his perceived value is vs 2 of those 3.

 

[brett05]

With the new CBA, it appears that teams that were currently being penalized for IFA signings will continue under the new agreement per ScoreMobile.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Im just saying what Boston thinks of the deal not what Jake is worth in general. Relax a bit will ya?

Honestly I'm not sure what you were saying. I'll say this though, Boston would love a bridge to their not quite ready young pitching. They've been linked a lot to Verlander but with his contract is at least $112 mil over 4 years and the possibility of a 5th at $22 mil with the vesting option. As good as Verlander was last year he is 33 years old and Dombrowski inked that deal and was burned by it once before. I'd be surprised if he went back to the fire especially if he had a 1 year option like Arrieta for a couple of prospects. The Red Sox will be the favorites in the NL East if they do nothing. They could conceivably trade for Arrieta, sign Rich Hill and be the prohibitive favorite in the AL and probably be the WS favorite over the Cubs. I think in the end they'd rather have Sale for 3 years but they're not giving up Moncada. They will do something big though and probably more than one giant move.

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

Not if you trade for Archer. Archer has a career 3.51 ERA with 3.48 FIP and with the league switch and the Cubs defense an ERa in the mid 2's is not hard to imagine. He also has a career 9.34 K/9 better than Jake's 9.22, and has been over 10 for 2 years. Both men have similar career BB/9 and HR/9 and are frankly similar concerns in those areas. Say you were able to swing the deal for Archer and get Michael Kopech for Arrieta. This year you would have a rotation of Lester, Hendricks, Archer, Lackey and Montgomery while next year Kopech will likely be up as a 4 or 5 while he learns the ropes and Montgomery either sticks or the team would certainly have money for a guy like Yu Darvish. Now that will be staff with at least 3 pitchers under 30 under team control for multiple years. Possibly 4 if Montgomery works out. No, I don't think it makes us worse, it makes us no less than equal as a pitching staff with the possibility to be better and sets up the future nicely.

I'm not worried about next year. Cubs fans are hard wired to think next year I guess. We have a chance to win back to back world series titles. **** next year. If we want to win THIS year again..... Jake being on the team increases the odds greatly. You want to trade for Archer that's great. Would love it..... but keep Jake on the team. Otherwise someone is going to get hurt two months into the season and you're going to be thinking...."damn, I wish we had that former Cy Young winner on our team instead of some prospect who can help next year."

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I'm not worried about next year. Cubs fans are hard wired to think next year I guess. We have a chance to win back to back world series titles. **** next year. If we want to win THIS year again..... Jake being on the team increases the odds greatly. You want to trade for Archer that's great. Would love it..... but keep Jake on the team. Otherwise someone is going to get hurt two months into the season and you're going to be thinking...."damn, I wish we had that former Cy Young winner on our team instead of some prospect who can help next year."

In the last 40 years teams have repeated as WS champs 3 times the Yankees in 1977-78, the Blue Jays in 1992-93 and the Yankees again with 3 in row in 1998, 1999 and 2000 that last being something I doubt we will ever see again. The odds against it are long and we saw last year winning a WS is very, very hard. Trading for Archer and trading Arrieta away so you don't lose him for a 3rd round draft pick does not do anything to diminish the initial odds of winning the WS in 2017 and greatly increases them for 2018. Archer is nearly as good as Arrieta and has room to improve. Frankly if June-September 2016 Jake shows up Archer is the better pitcher You always have to take the long view especially with a young core as good as this one. You want to make the playoffs every year and try to get 2 or 3 WS over say a 6 year period.

 

[brett05]

Honestly I'm not sure what you were saying. I'll say this though, Boston would love a bridge to their not quite ready young pitching. They've been linked a lot to Verlander but with his contract is at least $112 mil over 4 years and the possibility of a 5th at $22 mil with the vesting option. As good as Verlander was last year he is 33 years old and Dombrowski inked that deal and was burned by it once before. I'd be surprised if he went back to the fire especially if he had a 1 year option like Arrieta for a couple of prospects. The Red Sox will be the favorites in the NL East if they do nothing. They could conceivably trade for Arrieta, sign Rich Hill and be the prohibitive favorite in the AL and probably be the WS favorite over the Cubs. I think in the end they'd rather have Sale for 3 years but they're not giving up Moncada. They will do something big though and probably more than one giant move.

I really don't see them trading away anything big...very similar to the Cubs in many respects. They worked on building up and value their specs potentially more than other teams do. Still a god thing to discuss as fans.

 

[brett05]

I mean Archer if that was what you were referring toBaBaBlackSheep is not a prospect.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

I tend to agree with you but St. Louis has work to do and it's doubtful that they could go into the season strong enough to be favored in the Division. Doesn't mean they can't win it in a long season but it would probably have to include some injuries on the Cubs part. If they were to sign say Justin Turner and Dexter Fowler and get some catching depth I'd say they would be almost a WC lock and nip at the Cubs heels. That's a lot of work to do though.

True. And it probably wouldn't be the brightest idea for St. Louis to sign both Turner and Fowler. Both are over 30 years old. I'm still hoping Fowler signs with Toronto in the AL. I certainly don't want him in the division playing on St. Louis.

The Cards are still a talented team and very capable of winning - but they have a ton of holes and I think there is a significant talent gap between us. I really like where we are at.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Archer has TOR stuff but I think we're pretty well positioned, as is. I'm not sure I want to give up four players to get him when we already have Lester, Hendricks and Arrieta at the top of the rotation for 2017. Plus Lackey and Montgomery on the back end. I just don't think it's a huge need.

I would like to add starting depth, though. I just don't think the need to get a TOR is there right now. Our strength is young talent on all levels -- we should save our bullets for when we really need them.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm not worried about next year. Cubs fans are hard wired to think next year I guess. We have a chance to win back to back world series titles. **** next year. If we want to win THIS year again..... Jake being on the team increases the odds greatly. You want to trade for Archer that's great. Would love it..... but keep Jake on the team. Otherwise someone is going to get hurt two months into the season and you're going to be thinking...."damn, I wish we had that former Cy Young winner on our team instead of some prospect who can help next year."

That's one take but I would argue it's short sighted. The problem with this line of thinking is you can't let Arrieta walk for nothing and given the new changes to the CBA that's essentially what happens if the cubs can't reach a common ground and re-sign him. Arrieta and Archer on top of Lester and Hendricks would be over kill even when you factor in a likely regression with Hendricks. I get the "wouldn't it be cool!" aspect of the thinking but it's a genuinely poor allocation of resources. In the scenario you present of someone getting hurt you'd rather have two 2 fWAR prospects in the high minors than 1 4 win Arrieta because the drop off from whoever the pitcher who is hurt to a 2 win prospect is far less than that same drop off to say Ryan Williams.

Obviously it depends on what prospect you're talking about here as Candelario doesn't really add much value in that circumstance but presumably if you're making this sort of trade to begin with you're also going to be moving parts to get pitching with upside in the high minors because they already have some upside pitching in A ball. Additionally, this sort of move(if it were to happen) isn't just about Arrieta. The cubs also are likely losing Lackey after net year too with nothing really worth while behind him in the minors for 2-3 years.

Essentially it comes down to trying to win it all in one year vs winning it all over 3-4 years. The cubs won over 100 games this year and the odds on them winning the WS to start the playoffs were around 20%. Even with Archer and Arrieta the odds are going to be below 33%. It's a bad bet to go in on one year.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I really don't see them trading away anything big...very similar to the Cubs in many respects. They worked on building up and value their specs potentially more than other teams do. Still a god thing to discuss as fans.

I would agree with you if this was the same administration that built the farm. Ben Cherington was let go in favor of Dave Dombrowski in 2015 in large part due to his reluctance to trade talent to win. Mike hazen served as Dombrowski's GM last year and was a link to the old regime and a voice in the room urging caution. Hazen is gone and Dombrowski has traded young talent away throughout his career in order to increase his chances of winning. I firmly believe they will make a couple of signifignat trades. Of course who they trade will be commensurate with the return but could they trade Benintendi, Devers, Swihart and potentially others? Absolutely.