That list is minus happ, and candelario. Basically I was going off the idea that Archer would cost Happ, Soler, Candelario, Montero(+money), and two minor pieces be it lower level(below their top 15 prospects) pitching or depth guys like Szczur. I'm guessing based on our previous conversations you'd say that was a light offer. It wouldn't shock me if they might instead move around some pieces in the trade and want say Cease instead of something I suggested but if that is the case it jus makes the cubs farm system even weaker if that's the case.
Overall, the cubs have some interesting depth that could pop up in the next year or so but as we sit here today it's guys who could go either way.
I just don't believe that the Rays would take that deal. Happ and Candi as the 2 prime prospects. 2 MLB players that put up .6 WAR in 2016. The 2 minor pieces would have to be pretty solid and not minor.
You could sell Soler as the 3rd best piece to get Archer. Say Baez, Happ (moved to LF in AA-AAA), Soler to play LF and DH some. Then a 4th piece. Could be Montero. You figure Baez is worth 4 WAR base. Montero and Soler may get you 2 WAR with more playing time. That covers up to 6 WAR of value. Happ would get you a system arm then.
My feel is the Rays want to compete in 2017. I do not believe they will want Candiero because of Longoria. So it doesn't fell like a match up there. Now a GG 2B or if they moved him back to SS. I can buy that one as a center piece of a deal. Not Happ.
Now my feeling is they will do nothing of the sort.
They did a 1 year on Jay. Let's Almora mature for a year.
They have stock piled LH BP arms this offseason. That replaces Wood and lets Montgomery start. Fact they let Hammel walk was a red flag of this direction.
Now with these factors in mind and they are losing Arrieta and Lackey and at best they may have Underwood maybe ready. Clifton in AAA in 2018. Sure selling Arrieta to gain pieces to get a guy like Archer makes sense. But you have to look at the F/A market also.
To me it makes sense to leave Candiero sit in AAA to keep him regular. With Baez you do not have the playing time.
Now if they did trade Jake to? For prospects to flip to T.B. Say they get 3 back. 2 they want and 1 that the Rays want. Then they trade Baez that prospect with Montero and Soler. At that point they have no back up SS. Petty much a big issue. Soler is a non issue. Montero becomes a non issue if they find a solid rental back up catcher. Market looks thin here also.
So this is what I think:
Do nothing. By trading they become weaker. Jake->Archer is a push then you lose your back up catcher and your super sub. Soler gone also which could be big or small depending on other factors pulling their weight.
IDK. If they were just moving Soler and Christian for lower level arms that they could develop I could buy it.
Montero: Pointless to trade. They have a legit back up in AAA. Better to deal him at the deadline.
Soler: emergency only really. Most likely Heyward regains form and Schwarber meets his potential. Really feels like they should hold him for emergency and let his value pick up in a back up role.
Jake in reality will get over 50 mil. So he will net a pick regardless. Not sure on the new CBA. But just deal with that when it happens.
I see it as Hendricks turns into the top RH starter on the staff. Lester the top lefty. Montgomery will be the 4. That creates the need for a grade B RH starter vs a A grade like Archer. The 5 you are looking at innings pitched for the most part.
That need could be filled in the F/A market in 2018 or via trade. This market is @$$ for F/A starters. This is pushing up the price tags for F/A pitching. I would look at the trade deadline for a replacement with control with Soler and Montero if they can afford to move them at that point.
