Offseason discussion/rumors

[Omeletpants]

Soler has no place on a great team like the Cubs. He is not a guy you want in pressure situations and he is the kind of a guy that can cost a key game. His nonchalant attitude in the OF should piss off everyone. There are much better choices, either professional hitters or defenders that are safer plays. Everyone talks about him needing playing time. Well, he isnt getting that here so cut bait

 

[beckdawg]

Soler has no place on a great team like the Cubs. He is not a guy you want in pressure situations and he is the kind of a guy that can cost a key game. His nonchalant attitude in the OF should piss off everyone. There are much better choices, either professional hitters or defenders that are safer plays. Everyone talks about him needing playing time. Well, he isnt getting that here so cut bait

Oh I'm necessarily saying the cubs should keep him. My only point was he has actual value probably to a lessor team such as Tampa. Just as an example, Trumbo at age 27 was traded to AZ in a three team deal that netted LAA Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs. Skaggs was an intriguing young arm(21 at the time) with some decent upside. Hector Santiago was 25 at the time and was coming off a year where he threw 149 IP of 3.56/4.44 ERA/FIP. So, my guess is Soler likely has a some what similar value.

And if you are a team who's retooling/rebuilding, he's a guy that in my opinion holds a lot of interest. If we assume what he is now is your worst case then you're getting an above average LF. But, if you then turn in a full season with him he could easily hit 30 HRs. At the deadline next year someone who's as young as he is and cheap is going to hold a lot of value. So, while you could bet on a A ball prospect having more talent, my opinion is he's already shown he can hit in the majors. He may not end up being a super star but the floor on him is useful. A prospect might not even make he majors.

 

[Omeletpants]

Fine, hope it works out for him...........on another team

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Anything other than paying Arrieta is some cheap ass shit the Rickets should be ashamed of. 10,000 a seat man. Spend like the Yankees if your the Cubs and see if success more than pays you back. They could elevate tickets next year for sure.

Arrieta earned it, and then he came through in the playoffs. The squad looks alot weaker to me without him, given the age of Lester, slight build of Hendricks, and lack of arms behind them. Archer or Ross don't have the it factor and stuff of Arrieta.

Arrieta showed last year that he's an average to mediocre pitcher that got on a historic hot streak for a season and a half. If there's a chance to get younger and potentially better with a guy like Archer for less money and more financial flexibility to pay other guys I thank Jake for his service and wish him well. I'm not paying him $25 mil plus AAV well into his thirties.

 

[CSF77]

Arrieta showed last year that he's an average to mediocre pitcher that got on a historic hot streak for a season and a half. If there's a chance to get younger and potentially better with a guy like Archer for less money and more financial flexibility to pay other guys I thank Jake for his service and wish him well. I'm not paying him $25 mil plus AAV well into his thirties.

I wouldn't kill the talent depth for Archer.

Jake is worth a draft pick. I would keep him on the 2017 team.

I would target Ross after he got DFA. Pads walked due to his TOS recovery taking too long. Add to it he would be looking at 10 mil in his last year of arb. Not a solid investment.

Cubs do not need him in 2017. But 2018 yes he would fit. So a deal to let him get healthy and reproved makes sense. He has been a targeted arm anyways so this is not a reach.

Jake had the 3rd highest run support last year. Bryant alone carried him. You put his support to the league avg and he is not a 18 game winner.

 

[beckdawg]

The Astros have agreed to a one-year, $16MM deal with free agent DH Carlos Beltran, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes (Twitter links).

Astro's are really in go for it mode. If the cubs eventually shop Arrieta I can see them being suitors.

 

[beckdawg]

Jake is worth a draft pick. I would keep him on the 2017 team.

The problem is that pick is now substantially less. A third round pick is generally speaking only going to be a hope at an average MLB player. Plus, in the past part of the nice aspect of 1st round compensation was the money for the slot allowed you to get creative. Third round slots aren't that valuable.

 

[beckdawg]

Arrieta showed last year that he's an average to mediocre pitcher that got on a historic hot streak for a season and a half.

Eh... I wouldn't go that far. While I agree with your feelings on signing him long term, he's thrown 583.0 innings the past 3 years and posted a 9.15 k/9 with a 2.55 bb/9 and a 2.42/2.72 ERA/FIP. He can fairly reasonably be considered a front line pitcher. My issue would be more that when he loses his mechanics he's not great which we saw with his 3.69/4.19 second half ERA/FIP. When he gets his mechanics locked it it's obvious what he can be but he's struggled with them his whole career.

But honestly that's not even the main reason I'd rather find some way to essentially swap in Archer and swap out Arrieta. I'd just rather have the payroll flexibility. If you tie up another $25 mil a year or whatever he wants in him and Lester it limits your flexibility in other regards. I'd prefer to keep the team as lean as possible so they easily have money for the young hitters next deal while also having left over money to use to plug additional holes.

 

[CSF77]

The problem is that pick is now substantially less. A third round pick is generally speaking only going to be a hope at an average MLB player. Plus, in the past part of the nice aspect of 1st round compensation was the money for the slot allowed you to get creative. Third round slots aren't that valuable.

I think the bigger pitcher is repeating. Jake 2 wins in the series. Sometimes it is not about return value. It means more when rebuilding. Not in a winning window.

 

[CSF77]

Eh... I wouldn't go that far. While I agree with your feelings on signing him long term, he's thrown 583.0 innings the past 3 years and posted a 9.15 k/9 with a 2.55 bb/9 and a 2.42/2.72 ERA/FIP. He can fairly reasonably be considered a front line pitcher. My issue would be more that when he loses his mechanics he's not great which we saw with his 3.69/4.19 second half ERA/FIP. When he gets his mechanics locked it it's obvious what he can be but he's struggled with them his whole career.

But honestly that's not even the main reason I'd rather find some way to essentially swap in Archer and swap out Arrieta. I'd just rather have the payroll flexibility. If you tie up another $25 mil a year or whatever he wants in him and Lester it limits your flexibility in other regards. I'd prefer to keep the team as lean as possible so they easily have money for the young hitters next deal while also having left over money to use to plug additional holes.

http://www.offthebenchbaseball.com/2016/11/30/curious-case-of-2016s-jake-arrieta-pitching-mechanics/

 

[beckdawg]

another team who tried to negotiate a deal with free agent starter rich hill believes the lefty has a three-year contract worth $40mm or more in place with the dodgers, peter gammons tweets. No move has been confirmed by hill or the dodgers at this point, however.

fyi

 

[beckdawg]

I think the bigger pitcher is repeating. Jake 2 wins in the series. Sometimes it is not about return value. It means more when rebuilding. Not in a winning window.

I don't think you can plan that way personally. I believe you build a team to get to the playoffs and then from there it's rather random. Cleveland in terms of true talent shouldn't have been anywhere near the cubs but they obviously had them on the ropes. I'm not going to sit here and chastise those who want to keep Arrieta. I get the logic. But I honestly don't believe the opportunity cost is high enough to warrant keeping him over getting value out of him. If the cubs can't land Archer, maybe I see that line of thinking but honestly I would be shocked if some pitching of that caliber isn't moved. And even if you can't get Archer, I think you can likely get Smyly and perhaps Sonny Gray for the cost it would Archer. Gray isn't my first choice but as a #3 starter he's largely fine.

It's frankly so hard to repeat in baseball. Too much random shit can happen. I just don't think Arrieta truly plays that much of a difference so long as you have something of quality to replace him with. As mentioned, I feel like if you can get to the playoffs reliably then largely your job is done. From there you're truly talking about marginal percentage point changes per player. If people disagree, so be it but that's how I feel.

It basically comes down to whether or not you trust the cubs scouting. If you do then I wouldn't really worry about losing Arrieta via trade because they likely pull enough value out of a trade to replace him.

 

[CSF77]

I don't think you can plan that way personally. I believe you build a team to get to the playoffs and then from there it's rather random. Cleveland in terms of true talent shouldn't have been anywhere near the cubs but they obviously had them on the ropes. I'm not going to sit here and chastise those who want to keep Arrieta. I get the logic. But I honestly don't believe the opportunity cost is high enough to warrant keeping him over getting value out of him. If the cubs can't land Archer, maybe I see that line of thinking but honestly I would be shocked if some pitching of that caliber isn't moved. And even if you can't get Archer, I think you can likely get Smyly and perhaps Sonny Gray for the cost it would Archer. Gray isn't my first choice but as a #3 starter he's largely fine.

It's frankly so hard to repeat in baseball. Too much random shit can happen. I just don't think Arrieta truly plays that much of a difference so long as you have something of quality to replace him with. As mentioned, I feel like if you can get to the playoffs reliably then largely your job is done. From there you're truly talking about marginal percentage point changes per player. If people disagree, so be it but that's how I feel.

It basically comes down to whether or not you trust the cubs scouting. If you do then I wouldn't really worry about losing Arrieta via trade because they likely pull enough value out of a trade to replace him.

Too much change on a championship team. Losing a lead off and a closer and 1 starter is enough

 

[TL1961]

Soler has no place on a great team like the Cubs. He is not a guy you want in pressure situations and he is the kind of a guy that can cost a key game. His nonchalant attitude in the OF should piss off everyone. There are much better choices, either professional hitters or defenders that are safer plays. Everyone talks about him needing playing time. Well, he isnt getting that here so cut bait

Geez this gets old.

 

[CSF77]

The Cubs made attempts over the past couple years to acquire right-hander Tyson Ross from the Padres and could pursue him in free agency, according to Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago. “The Padres were close to trading Ross to the Cubs for Starlin Castro,” a major league source who worked for one of the teams told Levine. “San Diego execs were mixed on asking for Castro or Javier Baez. The deal went down to the wire in late July of 2015 but never got to the point of exchanging medicals.” Ross was a front-of-the-rotation starter at that point, but he only threw 5 1/3 innings last season and is currently recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. The Padres non-tendered him Friday.

 

[Omeletpants]

Geez this gets old.

Your whining about my criticisms of Soler is getting old. Grow up

 

[beckdawg]

Sean Sears
‏@sean_sears6
#Athletics might be willing to part with Gray for cheap due to new CBA rules on Arb, maybe just one prospect like Happ could make it happen

Not sure how legit these rumors are but.... there's this.

 

[chibears55]

Keep reading about teams hanging up the phone on sox asking price for Sale..
Interested teams are dwindling...

Be funny if they end up calling the Cubs so they can get close to what they want...

As far as Cubs go...

They've been too quiet as far as rumors go..
I got a feeling there going to be a big signing and a big trade coming for them..

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[beckdawg]

Keep reading about teams hanging up the phone on sox asking price for Sale..
Interested teams are dwindling...

It's the reason i never thought pitching would be as expensive as some thought. I've read the sox were asking for the Shelby Miller trade plus more which is ironic considering how poorly that worked out for Arizona. My take is they eventually will come down in price and get something done but I doubt it's the cubs.

 

[Omeletpants]

Do we really want Sonny Gray?