Offseason discussion/rumors

[TC in Mississippi]

Braves told White Sox to go eff themselves on Swanson. So, Braves just set a precedent on what they wont give up for Sale. They are willing to center a deal behing their other SS but not Swanson.

Boston told them the same thing with Moncada and Houston isn't likely to trade Bregman either. I think Sale stays put.

 

[chibears55]

Archer replacing Arrieta makes the team better, not worse and in short and long term. Maybe it won't happen and Arrieta just walks after another nice playoff run. My feelin is that it's near impossible to repeat so you make moves that help with your overall window. Just my opinion.

I agree...
As much as I'd love to repeat i also would love to see them add younger arms that will be here for 5 to 10 yrs , that will help keep them division and WS contenders..

So, if they can move Arrieta and or Lackey and replace them with good younger arms, I'm all for it.

Lackey tank all but empty and as much as I appreciate what Arrieta has done the last 2 years, I don't think he'll sign a team friendly contract and at 32 in 2018 .. I don't think it'll be wise to give him a big multi year deal.

So, if their able to trade for his replacement now, might as well see what you can get for him in a deal.

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[BaBaBlacksheep]

I really don't see Archer or any big name guys coming this offseason. Teams are asking a fortune. Cubs wont overpay. Would love to see another more under the radar type deal like what got us Montgomery.

 

[CSF77]

Coming off shoulder surgery , you have to wonder why the Padres just let him go instead of keeping him for his final year.

My guess is that he probably not going to be ready to pitch a full season and they probably rather cut ties now then to have him rehab on their dime and then most likely see him leave after the season.

So, if cubs are indeed interested for 2018 and beyond.
I hope they at least make 18 an option year to be sure he makes it through this year ok..

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OCT. 13: Lin tweets that Dr. Thompson told Green he was pleased with the operation, indicating that no complications arose and no additional damage was found in Ross’ shoulder. Ross had one of his ribs removed to alleviate some pressure, as is common in TOS operations.

TOS is when nerves get wrapped up in the ribs. Causes numbness in the fingers. This happens to weight lifters also when they start bulking around the chest and ribs area. Nerves get moved with growth and can go into the rib area pinching them.

Basically he got a rib removed. And I've been reading some case files of TOS and every recovery is different. Some go 12 weeks or longer. So knowing that is a new trend the Pads most likely bailed vs spend 10 mil on another train wreck. They just paid him 9 mil to pitch 5 innings.

 

[CSF77]

I agree...
As much as I'd love to repeat i also would love to see them add younger arms that will be here for 5 to 10 yrs , that will help keep them division and WS contenders..

So, if they can move Arrieta and or Lackey and replace them with good younger arms, I'm all for it.

Lackey tank all but empty and as much as I appreciate what Arrieta has done the last 2 years, I don't think he'll sign a team friendly contract and at 32 in 2018 .. I don't think it'll be wise to give him a big multi year deal.

So, if their able to trade for his replacement now, might as well see what you can get for him in a deal.

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Lackey was the 4 last year and was ineffective. He would have to re-earn a play off rotation spot. Going off of right now it is Lester, Hendricks, Arrieta, Montgomery, Lackey. Spot starts I doubt will be a concern early season as teams tend to go through rain outs early season. Summer time is when you expect that issue coming up.

 

[beckdawg]

The Cubs make a deal with Tampa Bay bringing back Archer and Colome but if the price is too high for Archer I think the get Colome anyway.

Just thinking out loud here but if you're Tampa and the cubs would Archer and Smyly not be better? Smyly is more cost prohibitive for he Rays than Colome is(pre arb for Colome vs probably around $7 mil for Smyly). In the case of the cubs, I can see the appeal of Colome but they are still short LHP in the bullpen. And Smyly would obviously hold some hope for 2018 as a potential starter. Clearing both Archer and Smyly saves Tampa around $12 mil. It would weaken their starting rotation but they would still have Snell, Cobb, Erasmo Ramírez, and Jake Odorizzi. That's a decent top 4. Austin Pruitt, Jaime Schultz, Justin Marks, Adam Wilk, and Jacob Faria all pitched well in AAA for them last season so they should in theory have the depth to pull a 5th guy out of that.

 

[beckdawg]

And moving arrietta really decreases the 2017 ws chances.

That's debatable. As things stand today the cubs project to have 50.5 fWAR which is best in the majors. Even if you entirely eliminate Arrieta, his 4.1 just drops he cubs to 46.4 which is still second to only the dodgers at 48.1. And obviously, if you're moving Arrieta you've either made a parallel move or are getting something of value to replace him. Realistically speaking, the cubs have probably an 80%+ chance of winning the division and some where between 15-20% chance to win the world series with or without Arrieta.

 

[CSF77]

Just thinking out loud here but if you're Tampa and the cubs would Archer and Smyly not be better? Smyly is more cost prohibitive for he Rays than Colome is(pre arb for Colome vs probably around $7 mil for Smyly). In the case of the cubs, I can see the appeal of Colome but they are still short LHP in the bullpen. And Smyly would obviously hold some hope for 2018 as a potential starter. Clearing both Archer and Smyly saves Tampa around $12 mil. It would weaken their starting rotation but they would still have Snell, Cobb, Erasmo Ramírez, and Jake Odorizzi. That's a decent top 4. Austin Pruitt, Jaime Schultz, Justin Marks, Adam Wilk, and Jacob Faria all pitched well in AAA for them last season so they should in theory have the depth to pull a 5th guy out of that.

Don't think they will trade 2 starters.

Tampa is widely expected to deal at least one of Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Alex Cobb or Drew Smyly this winter. The Astros are known to have interest in Archer, though he would command the highest price of the lot.

1. C. Archer
2. D. Smyly
3. J. Odorizzi
4. B. Snell
5. A. Cobb
6. M. Andriese

Jacob Faria | Rank: 5
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 45 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50

Jaime Schultz | Rank: 11 (Preseason: 19)
Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 40 | Overall: 50

Taylor Guerrieri | Rank: 13 (Preseason: 6) PED suspend post surgery. Most likely to speed recovery he risked it.

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 50

not to mention at AAA next year:

Brent Honeywell | Rank: 2 (Preseason: 2)
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Screwball: 65 | Curveball: 45 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55

They can replace 1 starter from with in. Jaime Schultz got 27 games in at AAA last year and is a realistic option for a 5. So I get why they want to deal now. Nut I would expect 1 this off season then 1 by the dead line when Honeywell is closer. Jacob Faria may warrant it with a strong AAA 1st half but the guy to watch is Honeywell.

 

[beckdawg]

Don't think they will trade 2 starters.


1. C. Archer
2. D. Smyly
3. J. Odorizzi
4. B. Snell
5. A. Cobb
6. M. Andriese

Jacob Faria | Rank: 5
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 45 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50

Jaime Schultz | Rank: 11 (Preseason: 19)
Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 40 | Overall: 50

Taylor Guerrieri | Rank: 13 (Preseason: 6) PED suspend post surgery. Most likely to speed recovery he risked it.

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 50

not to mention at AAA next year:

Brent Honeywell | Rank: 2 (Preseason: 2)
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Screwball: 65 | Curveball: 45 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55

They can replace 1 starter from with in. Jaime Schultz got 27 games in at AAA last year and is a realistic option for a 5. So I get why they want to deal now. Nut I would expect 1 this off season then 1 by the dead line when Honeywell is closer. Jacob Faria may warrant it with a strong AAA 1st half but the guy to watch is Honeywell.

You're leaving out Erasmo Ramírez who started 28 games for the Rays with a 3.75/3.76 ERA/FIP in 2015 and 3.77/4.76 in 2016. He's not a star but he's decent for the back of the rotation.

 

[CSF77]

just looking up some stuff. 4 seam spin rates:

League avg: 2241.00

Blake Snell 2479.00
Matt Andriese 2354.00
Jake Odorizzi 2255.00
Drew Smyly 2182.00
Chris Archer 2179.00
Alex Cobb 2089.00

Erasmo Ramírez features a 2 seam League avg is 2156.00 his is at 2267.00

I can see why they are in love with Snell. He stands out with that spin rate and a 94 MPH 4 seam.

Definition. A pitcher's Spin Rate represents the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute. The amount of spin on a pitch changes its trajectory. The same pitch thrown at the same Velocity will end up in a different place depending on how much it spins.

So this relates to ball movement. Higher rates move more. lower rates tend to be stationary. Archer has a 94 MPH avg vs others with higher spin rates that sit at 90 mph. Ordonzzi seems like good value with a league avg spin rate and a league avg velocity. I would target him to be honest. They don't need a Ace. They need a #3.

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/...g-to-post-shohei-otani-after-2017-season.html

 

[CSF77]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/...g-to-post-shohei-otani-after-2017-season.html

now you did it. Start the spank fest.

:saxy::fap::marshmallow::marshmallow::marshmallow:

 

[DanTown]

1, I highly doubt Theo and the organization believe they're any less likely to win the 2017 WS because they won the 2016 WS. I mean it's so illogical to how they act I'd be shocked if the idea was even entertained.

2. I think Theo would make the right "move" in an Arrieta trade (I.e they get back a long term potential TOR) but I doubt they'll do it to just do it and improve the team beyond 2017. The Cubs could say to themselves "Let's sign Ross to an incentive deal, hope he's available in 2018 and beyond and then go after Otani and let Jake walk". They could just slot Otani in to the Montero/Arrieta money, a guy like Tyson Ross in to the Lackey money, and then save a ton on Montgomery and bullpen arms compared to Hammel/etc.

3. The Cubs, for the first time maybe ever, have projectable arms in a timeline that's actually present. After the years that Cease and Clifton had (with de La Cruz just a tad below that), the Cubs have late 2018/2019 arms there. Add in Lester, Montgomery, and Hendricks still being team control and the hope to get Otani, the desire and need for TOR SP in the future isn't as huge as it may have been just 12 months ago.

4. I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs are done. Maybe the Ross thing changes their mind (a guy they've liked + have history with + projects perfectly for their system + no compensation + down price) but I could see a world where Theo and the FO just lets this breathe a little bit. Looking at the top end guys, you have Happ get a full year between AA/AAA and then he's maybe a mid 2018 call-up. Eloy ends in AA this year and ends in AAA next year and he's potentially a 2019 (if Heyward leaves). Candelario could be a playable CIF backup.

 

[brett05]

It's the reason i never thought pitching would be as expensive as some thought. I've read the sox were asking for the Shelby Miller trade plus more which is ironic considering how poorly that worked out for Arizona. My take is they eventually will come down in price and get something done but I doubt it's the cubs.

They should not only ask but expect more than what the Braves got. Miller on his best day is Sale's assistant.

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

They should not only ask but expect more than what the Braves got. Miller on his best day is Sale's assistant.

Takes two to Tango....

Not everyone is Arizona level stupid.

 

[Omeletpants]

Heyward is not opting out of his contract as no one else will pay him that amount. Just stop it

 

[brett05]

Takes two to Tango....

Not everyone is Arizona level stupid.

Not saying that they get it nor do I say that the Whit Sox need to do it.

I read it just yesterday I believe in the Tribune or it was a writer on Tiwtter that said something along the lines that in the past few years the cost of specs has gone crazy high. I agree with that assessment.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Heyward is not opting out of his contract as no one else will pay him that amount. Just stop it

If he gets back to his normal numbers and 5 WAR production he will likely opt out and there is no reason, looking at his career as a whole not just 2016, to not expect that he will. 2016 screams statistical outlier.

 

[brett05]

If he gets back to his normal numbers and 5 WAR production he will likely opt out and there is no reason, looking at his career as a whole not just 2016, to not expect that he will. 2016 screams statistical outlier.

Man, if Heyward does get back to career norms I don't think at all he opts. Just not enough chance that someone is going to pay him more than he's already getting from the Cubs. And on the opposite, it will now be seen as two pretty bad years in his career meaning he's more likely to have at least one if not two + bad years in signing a 5-7 year contract after he opts out which will scare off plenty of teams IMO.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Man, if Heyward does get back to career norms I don't think at all he opts. Just not enough chance that someone is going to pay him more than he's already getting from the Cubs. And on the opposite, it will now be seen as two pretty bad years in his career meaning he's more likely to have at least one if not two + bad years in signing a 5-7 year contract after he opts out which will scare off plenty of teams IMO.

There are a lot of factors involved. If he opts all he would have to get to improve on the rest of the deal would be more than 5/$106 mil and that would be entering his age 29 season. It's not inconceivable that he would be worth $25 mil per in those same 5 years. If a team gave him 5/$125 all they'd need to get out of him to pay for that is about 16 WAR over the life of the deal. It just depends on what this new CBA does to salaries. Teams are scrambling right now to stay out of the luxury tax which at the moment is killing the plans of Edwin Encarnacion. It was assumed that he would esaily get 5/$125 mil going into his age 33 season and it's not going to happen. Most of the media thought that the 4/$80 mil that the Blue Jays offered was an insult and now that's off the table with very little market for him left. Right now the cost per WAR over a 3-5 year contract has been assumed to be about $8 mil/WAR, if that decreases because of the luxury tax penalties, then no, you wouldn't think Heyward would opt out. I tend to think this is a blip though, teams will figure out how to afford the luxury tax and things like the $40 mil AAV pitcher are only a few years off. Time will tell.