Offseason discussion/rumors

[beckdawg]

A few teams were interested in Matt Szczur before the Cubs elected to keep him on the 25-man roster last April. A source said the Brewers were close to a deal for Szczur last season before talks dissolved.

http://www.redeyechicago.com/trending/ct-5-things-cubs-winter-meetings-spt-1204-20161203-story.html

MIL has some sort of interesting second tier arms. You're not going to get a huge return for Szczur but some of the pitchers in their 10-20 range seems plausible.

 

[chibears55]

Do we really want Sonny Gray?

Only if cost is minimal.. He a FA after 2019 season

Here the thing though...
If Cubs are actually planning on giving Montgomery a shot at the 5 spot, then there no room in 2017 for an established major league starter like Gray ..

So, unless they plan on trading Arrieta and or Lackey this off season.. The only deals for SP made this off season are for prospects with ETA of 2018 or 2019...

My guess if they plan on staying with the main 4 and Montgomery... Is they add a couple depth arms in case Montgomery don't cut it and injuries..
The trade deadline is where they might look to add that SP , depending on how season going..

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[CSF77]

Only if cost is minimal.. He a FA after 2019 season

Here the thing though...
If Cubs are actually planning on giving Montgomery a shot at the 5 spot, then there no room in 2017 for an established major league starter like Gray ..

So, unless they plan on trading Arrieta and or Lackey this off season.. The only deals for SP made this off season are for prospects with ETA of 2018 or 2019...

My guess if they plan on staying with the main 4 and Montgomery... Is they add a couple depth arms in case Montgomery don't cut it and injuries..
The trade deadline is where they might look to add that SP , depending on how season going..

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I see the logic of signing 1 guy then trading Arrieta to get something better than a pick.

But

Getting Gray = 1 top 25 prospect.

Losing Arrieta = Back of 1st round pick.

Trading Arrieta = maybe 1-2 prospects. With the values going down don't hold you breath.


The new CBA I believe will make teams hold their expiring more. Dumping a pending F/A normally is about cutting overhead in a failed season. and/or tossing the white flag and starting a rebuild.

I just don't believe the gain will equal the loss that Jake provides in 2017. If the year turns into a bust then I expect Theo and Jed to start selling.

This is how them market should be. Not making lateral moves just to keep cheaper for a few years.

If anything they save cash for a few years. Add something that may pan out and lose a potential future lead off.

If it was for Archer who has 5 years of control then we are talking. Gray really doesn't have the control to warrant a lateral move.

 

[beckdawg]

Losing Arrieta = Back of 1st round pick.

You no longer get a first round pick for QO players. It's a 3rd round pick more or less. That's the main reason we were discussing Arrieta possibly being traded because a 3rd round pick has so little value where as trading for probably 2 top 100 prospects is significantly more. In the old days of the QO I think you could argue that 1 first round player largely would make a trade about even with what Arrieta provides but dropping down to a 3rd round pick is a huge kick in the pants.

 

[beckdawg]

Only if cost is minimal.. He a FA after 2019 season

Here the thing though...
If Cubs are actually planning on giving Montgomery a shot at the 5 spot, then there no room in 2017 for an established major league starter like Gray ..

So, unless they plan on trading Arrieta and or Lackey this off season.. The only deals for SP made this off season are for prospects with ETA of 2018 or 2019...

My guess if they plan on staying with the main 4 and Montgomery... Is they add a couple depth arms in case Montgomery don't cut it and injuries..
The trade deadline is where they might look to add that SP , depending on how season going..

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While I think Montgomery is the plan today as the #5, keep in mind he's useful out of the bullpen where the cubs would other wise need a good LHP and also keep in mind that Maddon was a big proponent of using a 6th starter to limit innings. Plus, odds are someone will eventually get hurt so having quality depth is important.

For me, I've already said Gray's not really my guy but I will concede he's a decent #3 pitcher. If you can get him at a #3 pitcher price I'd pull the trigger if he's healthy. He's a heavy ground ball pitcher who should benefit from the cubs good team defense.

 

[chibears55]

While I think Montgomery is the plan today as the #5, keep in mind he's useful out of the bullpen where the cubs would other wise need a good LHP and also keep in mind that Maddon was a big proponent of using a 6th starter to limit innings. Plus, odds are someone will eventually get hurt so having quality depth is important.

For me, I've already said Gray's not really my guy but I will concede he's a decent #3 pitcher. If you can get him at a #3 pitcher price I'd pull the trigger if he's healthy. He's a heavy ground ball pitcher who should benefit from the cubs good team defense.

I prefer he stays in pen as middle/long reliever and 6th starter..

There no particular starter I'm hoping for, just hope if they do get one its someone who'll stick around a few years and will eventually be MOR or better after Lackey and Arrieta leaves.

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[DanTown]

The Astros have agreed to a one-year, $16MM deal with free agent DH Carlos Beltran, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes (Twitter links).

Astro's are really in go for it mode. If the cubs eventually shop Arrieta I can see them being suitors.

Have long argued that Arrieta + maybe a low value bat (top 10-20 in the organization) for Paulino makes a lot of sense for both sides if Houston is really going for it right now.

 

[DanTown]

You no longer get a first round pick for QO players. It's a 3rd round pick more or less. That's the main reason we were discussing Arrieta possibly being traded because a 3rd round pick has so little value where as trading for probably 2 top 100 prospects is significantly more. In the old days of the QO I think you could argue that 1 first round player largely would make a trade about even with what Arrieta provides but dropping down to a 3rd round pick is a huge kick in the pants.

This also does lower his trade value if the team acquiring him doesn't have a ton of recoup value if he's a rental and they can simply sign him in 2017 for a fairly low cost. A team like Houston or the Angels might be more willing to give up a good prospect for the 2017 season but I think the QO change hurts his trade value to a team like Boston.

 

[DanTown]

With Ross being non-tendered, I think that's a guy the Cubs will give a heavy incentive deal to and the Cubs have the 2017 payroll to guarantee him something fairly good. Something like 2/30 with a team option for 20 million in 2019 and 24 million in 2020 makes sense for both sides. Have to remember Tyson Ross has made some good money in his life (18 million) but this is that "life settling" contract that is fair for a guy who has missed the previous season and if he rebounds to have a good enough bounce back that he's healthy the deal ends up being 4/74 but the Cubs only guarantee 30 of it.

If he was willing to do something like 5 - 75, I'd probably roll the dice there too as there is a potential for a ton of surplus value.

 

[chibears55]

With Ross being non-tendered, I think that's a guy the Cubs will give a heavy incentive deal to and the Cubs have the 2017 payroll to guarantee him something fairly good. Something like 2/30 with a team option for 20 million in 2019 and 24 million in 2020 makes sense for both sides. Have to remember Tyson Ross has made some good money in his life (18 million) but this is that "life settling" contract that is fair for a guy who has missed the previous season and if he rebounds to have a good enough bounce back that he's healthy the deal ends up being 4/74 but the Cubs only guarantee 30 of it.

If he was willing to do something like 5 - 75, I'd probably roll the dice there too as there is a potential for a ton of surplus value.

Coming off shoulder surgery , you have to wonder why the Padres just let him go instead of keeping him for his final year.

My guess is that he probably not going to be ready to pitch a full season and they probably rather cut ties now then to have him rehab on their dime and then most likely see him leave after the season.

So, if cubs are indeed interested for 2018 and beyond.
I hope they at least make 18 an option year to be sure he makes it through this year ok..

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[beckdawg]

This also does lower his trade value if the team acquiring him doesn't have a ton of recoup value if he's a rental and they can simply sign him in 2017 for a fairly low cost. A team like Houston or the Angels might be more willing to give up a good prospect for the 2017 season but I think the QO change hurts his trade value to a team like Boston.

Well presumably whoever would consider trading for him would be someone who would re-sign him. To me, you'd basically talking about a similar case between Verlander and Arrieta in terms of value. If the cubs shop Arrieta, don't think is value will hurt much because he's going to be a cheaper and as effective version of Sale or Archer. Granted it's a shorter term but not every team is as focused on the next 4-5 years so much so that they need the extra control. I think you could make a case that if you have the money to re-sign Arrieta he's as valuable as Sale and Archer to a team but he's obviously not going to cost what they do.

 

[DanTown]

Well presumably whoever would consider trading for him would be someone who would re-sign him. To me, you'd basically talking about a similar case between Verlander and Arrieta in terms of value. If the cubs shop Arrieta, don't think is value will hurt much because he's going to be a cheaper and as effective version of Sale or Archer. Granted it's a shorter term but not every team is as focused on the next 4-5 years so much so that they need the extra control. I think you could make a case that if you have the money to re-sign Arrieta he's as valuable as Sale and Archer to a team but he's obviously not going to cost what they do.

To get the most value out of Jake in a trade, you need to find a team that has a need to win now because they're supposed to be good and they've already committed assets to this year. The Astros are clearly that kind of team. If they win 85 games and miss the playoffs, they probably at least let the manager go and potentially the GM so the GM has a desire to win. Adding Arrieta (a likely top 20 SP and 3+ WAR pitcher who just won the Cy Young last year) for one pitching prospect is a good value deal if the Cubs also give something in the long term so that if Arrieta does walk, the Astros or whoever aren't out a ton.

Victor Caratini and Arrieta for Paulino makes a lot of sense for both sides. Astros have a lack of C in their system and their best one just hit .250 in A ball. Caratini might be a little rough in terms of C ability but can likely be a decent C in 2018 (after McCann leaves) with the bat and framing.

Cubs get Paulino, the #75ish prospect in baseball, for the 2017 rotation at the #5 spot. The Astros don't trade their best three prospects for Arrieta and they also get a developmental C who instantly becomes the best future C for the Astros. That's the kind of deal you can maybe do Arrieta but I can just as easily see Houston say no to including Paulino in a deal for that much long-term risk.

 

[beckdawg]

To get the most value out of Jake in a trade, you need to find a team that has a need to win now because they're supposed to be good and they've already committed assets to this year. The Astros are clearly that kind of team. If they win 85 games and miss the playoffs, they probably at least let the manager go and potentially the GM so the GM has a desire to win. Adding Arrieta (a likely top 20 SP and 3+ WAR pitcher who just won the Cy Young last year) for one pitching prospect is a good value deal if the Cubs also give something in the long term so that if Arrieta does walk, the Astros or whoever aren't out a ton.

Victor Caratini and Arrieta for Paulino makes a lot of sense for both sides. Astros have a lack of C in their system and their best one just hit .250 in A ball. Caratini might be a little rough in terms of C ability but can likely be a decent C in 2018 (after McCann leaves) with the bat and framing.

Cubs get Paulino, the #75ish prospect in baseball, for the 2017 rotation at the #5 spot. The Astros don't trade their best three prospects for Arrieta and they also get a developmental C who instantly becomes the best future C for the Astros. That's the kind of deal you can maybe do Arrieta but I can just as easily see Houston say no to including Paulino in a deal for that much long-term risk.

I wouldn't do that deal personally if i were the cubs. While I think Paulino is intriguing think it's selling Arrieta's value incredibly short especially when you're also giving up another usable piece.

 

[beckdawg]

Another name I haven't heard much talk about who might be moved this offseason is Danny Duffy. He's only under contract for one year and given where he stands, think it would be difficult for KC to re-sign him. And with the changes to compensation, it would make a ton of sense for the Royals to market him.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I think these Winter Meetings will be among active as we've seen in awhile. I'm not all that certain of what the Cubs might do but previously predicted that they would trade for Archer and my gut still tells me they will. Some predictions and thoughts:

All 3 prominent FA closers sign this week starting with Melancon to the Giants as early as tonight. I think Chapman ends up a National and Jansen remains a Dodger, but I think LA sheds some salary first or he winds up elsewhere. Wild guess would be the Marlins but I was sort of surprised they were in so hard on Melancon so this is by no means more than a strange hunch.

The Cubs make a deal with Tampa Bay bringing back Archer and Colome but if the price is too high for Archer I think the get Colome anyway. He fits the Cubs MO as a 27 year old arm with 5 years of control and his numbers are impressive especially K's. Whether it's Archer and Colome or just Colome I don't expect Baez to move. I'd be very surprised but not absolutely shocked if Russell goes in the deal for Archer plus, I think the FO thinks Baez' ceiling is higher and if they have to part with one it would be Russell.

If Archer comes north I think Arrieta is moved. Houston is as all in as anybody and could use another pitcher and it's looking like they're out on Sale who would cost Bregman plus. I think there would have to be a sweetener along for the ride but I think this could bring back an arm. David Paulino wouldn't shock me.

Sale stays put, Quintana stays put, Archer goes if it's the Cubs or maybe Boston if they trade in Division. Unlikely but there is a fit. Atlanta is a player but won't part with Dansby Swanson. Hill signs in LA (if he hasn't already), Boston trades for Verlander, the Yankees sign Jason Hammel.

Encarcion lands in Houston, Bautista in NY, Fowler to Toronto, Ian Desmond back to Washington if they can't land McCutchen. If the latter isn't a National I think he's a Ranger.

I think the Mets, Braves, Astros, Nats and Cards are the most active of the contenders but the Cubs, Giants, Dodgers, Red Sox and Rangers all potentially have a big move in them. Of the rebuilders I think the D-Backs, A's and White Sox will be active but I don't think the latter moves pitching unless it's Robertson. Frazier and Abraeu might net the most back otherwise unless they move Eaton.

This was all stream of consciousness stuff and is probably mostly wrong but hell why not make some guesses?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Another name I haven't heard much talk about who might be moved this offseason is Danny Duffy. He's only under contract for one year and given where he stands, think it would be difficult for KC to re-sign him. And with the changes to compensation, it would make a ton of sense for the Royals to market him.

My gut is that the Royals might try to catch fire and compete one more time and if it doesn't work become massive sellers at the deadline. The have too many FA to sign after 2017 so they'll rebuild regardless but I don't think they're quite ready yet.

 

[greg23]

Jeez.....we finally win a ws and everyone is acting like we're the padres and need to trim salary and /or dump 22-24 year old starting players?

They aren't moving Russell
They aren't moving Schwarber
I doubt they're moving baez
Soler I can see

They've drafted hitting over pitching and now that the hitting is at the ml level we're going to trade it for pitching? No chance.

And moving arrietta really decreases the 2017 ws chances.

Id like to see the cubs sign jansen/chapman but don't think it will happen.
I can see the cubs packaging soler for a #4 type starter from the album
I can see the cubs building a better package with soler and minor leaugers for a better pitcher but.

I see the cubs signing at least one bullpen arm this week if no closer is signed.

 

[SilenceS]

Braves told White Sox to go eff themselves on Swanson. So, Braves just set a precedent on what they wont give up for Sale. They are willing to center a deal behing their other SS but not Swanson.

 

[chibears55]

Yankees signed Matt Holliday 1 yr 13 mil

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[TC in Mississippi]

Jeez.....we finally win a ws and everyone is acting like we're the padres and need to trim salary and /or dump 22-24 year old starting players?

They aren't moving Russell
They aren't moving Schwarber
I doubt they're moving baez
Soler I can see

They've drafted hitting over pitching and now that the hitting is at the ml level we're going to trade it for pitching? No chance.

And moving arrietta really decreases the 2017 ws chances.

Id like to see the cubs sign jansen/chapman but don't think it will happen.
I can see the cubs packaging soler for a #4 type starter from the album
I can see the cubs building a better package with soler and minor leaugers for a better pitcher but.

I see the cubs signing at least one bullpen arm this week if no closer is signed.

Archer replacing Arrieta makes the team better, not worse and in short and long term. Maybe it won't happen and Arrieta just walks after another nice playoff run. My feelin is that it's near impossible to repeat so you make moves that help with your overall window. Just my opinion.