Offseason discussion/rumors

[BaBaBlacksheep]

Let's say Heyward has another shit year.... is there any precedence for trading out of a contract that bad?

 

[anotheridiot]

you need to consider what some position players are going to be paid in 2018. Three years was not a shot in the dark number, its going to be a stupid spending year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...s-going-to-be-bonkers/?utm_term=.b23c0bfa842e

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Let's say Heyward has another shit year.... is there any precedence for trading out of a contract that bad?

Probably not. If he's awful they're stuck with him, at least for a few years. In the last few years though he's only making $20, $21 and $22 mil AAV which is about a 2.6 WAR player. The guy has only been under 3 WAR twice in his career, in 2011 and 2016, both times it's been a .40-.50 drop in OBP that's done him in. I just don't see a player of his work ethic, character and athletic skills like his dropping off the map at 26. I think he bounces back to a 3.5-4.5 WAR player in 2017.

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

Probably not. If he's awful they're stuck with him, at least for a few years. In the last few years though he's only making $20, $21 and $22 mil AAV which is about a 2.6 WAR player. The guy has only been under 3 WAR twice in his career, in 2011 and 2016, both times it's been a .40-.50 drop in OBP that's done him in. I just don't see a player of his work ethic, character and athletic skills like his dropping off the map at 26. I think he bounces back to a 3.5-4.5 WAR player in 2017.

I agree, was just curious.

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

Cubs supposedly one of six teams in on Jansen.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

you need to consider what some position players are going to be paid in 2018. Three years was not a shot in the dark number, its going to be a stupid spending year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...s-going-to-be-bonkers/?utm_term=.b23c0bfa842e

All this was figured before the new CBA. That's a crazy FA class but there might not be the money that was expected either. Just this year Boston is balking at going over the luxury tax in not signing a guy like Encarnacion, the Giants are not going to repeat the;re brief foray into it, the Yankees are trying to get under it, the Dodgers are desperately trying to get under it by next year and no one expects the Cubs to exceed it. It could be a huge factor going forward. Frankly I think the players took it in the giggy way more than is being reported.

 

[SilenceS]

This thread has become a shit show. Just saying.

 

[DanTown]

They should not only ask but expect more than what the Braves got. Miller on his best day is Sale's assistant.

Eh, overpays don't set a market. The White Sox can hope another team is dumb enough to "buy" at that price but I highly doubt it mainly because they're dealing with actual competent front offices that aren't going to overpay.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Looks like Melancon to San Francisco is done, or very, very close. Rumors ar 4/$62-$64 mil.

 

[SilenceS]

Looks like Melancon to San Francisco is done, or very, very close. Rumors ar 4/$62-$64 mil.

Thats ridiculous. Closers are fly by night.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Thats ridiculous. Closers are fly by night.

I don't disagree with you at all but this means that both Chapman and Jansen get considerably more than this. So much for keeping salaries down like I was speculating. Doh.

 

[SilenceS]

All this was figured before the new CBA. That's a crazy FA class but there might not be the money that was expected either. Just this year Boston is balking at going over the luxury tax in not signing a guy like Encarnacion, the Giants are not going to repeat the;re brief foray into it, the Yankees are trying to get under it, the Dodgers are desperately trying to get under it by next year and no one expects the Cubs to exceed it. It could be a huge factor going forward. Frankly I think the players took it in the giggy way more than is being reported.

I wonder what made them sign it. All reports were they werent very happy about signing, but they did. A lockout would be horrible for the sport considering baseball seems to be on an upswing and football is losing its massive momentum.

 

[DanTown]

Let's say Heyward has another shit year.... is there any precedence for trading out of a contract that bad?

Dodgers (and then subsequently the Padres) traded Matt Kemp.
Vernon Wells was traded.
Josh Hamilton was traded.
Prince Fielder was traded.

MLB teams have given COF long term deals so if Heyward rebounds, I can see him opting out. Obviously his career numbers have to return (no, he won't opt out of a 100 million dollar contract if he's one of the worse hitters in baseball) and he'd need two solid years to prove 2016 was an outlier and not predictive of his future. Things move so quickly in terms of fear and belief regarding long term contracts.

The other thing is if Eloy is say ready, the Cubs could eat a good portion of Heyward's salary and likely find takers in a trade market.

 

[DanTown]

Looks like Melancon to San Francisco is done, or very, very close. Rumors ar 4/$62-$64 mil.

That's a lot of money for a closer not just in dollars but years. I'm know you're just reporting the deal but that kind of price for a 32 y/o Melancon is insane. Maybe Melancon is a better value since he's not a fireballer but I just would never expect to see even half the value of that.

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

Thats ridiculous. Closers are fly by night.

I'd save that money for starters. Why pay that for someone that throws 60-80 innings a year?

 

[DanTown]

I wonder what made them sign it. All reports were they werent very happy about signing, but they did. A lockout would be horrible for the sport considering baseball seems to be on an upswing and football is losing its massive momentum.

It's tough because the players lose public perception battles about greed and wages so they run the risk of getting even less down the line if they balk. I think it's a fairly poor deal but what you gonna do?

I think it helped that the minimum and 40 man wages went up a lot since that is a massive part of the union so it becomes harder for the truly elite players to hold up the entire CBA for 3-5 guys per team.

 

[DanTown]

I'd save that money for starters. Why pay that for someone that throws 60-80 innings a year?

I don't think the problem is getting value from 70-80 innings. I mean Andrew Miller or any other reliever who pitches that style is worth it, especially come the playoffs. I just don't think Melancon is that kind of guy.

 

[SilenceS]

Do people remember when Carlos Marmol got his contract from the Cubs and people went crazy about it a couple of years later. Yea, he never made 10 million in a season and he was probably one of the best relief pitchers for a 2 or 3 year stretch. lol

 

[TC in Mississippi]

That's a lot of money for a closer not just in dollars but years. I'm know you're just reporting the deal but that kind of price for a 32 y/o Melancon is insane. Maybe Melancon is a better value since he's not a fireballer but I just would never expect to see even half the value of that.

Jim Duquette was just talking about this on MLB Radio. He predicted Melancon would be good in year 1, OK in year 2, bad in year 3 and not pitching at all by year 4. I find it hard to disagree.

 

[brett05]

Eh, overpays don't set a market. The White Sox can hope another team is dumb enough to "buy" at that price but I highly doubt it mainly because they're dealing with actual competent front offices that aren't going to overpay.

And what the White Sox are asking for is far from an overpay, but whatevs.