Offseason discussion/rumors

beckdawg

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I really don't see them trading away anything big...very similar to the Cubs in many respects. They worked on building up and value their specs potentially more than other teams do. Still a god thing to discuss as fans.

I totally disagree. Look at the way the organization has been run the past 2 years. They hired Dumbrowski who's been notorious throughout his career of trading prospects for proven players and gutting a farm system. His first big move with he Sox was dealing a bunch of prospects to get Kimbrel. He then did the same thing at the deadline to get Pomeranz. And now there is obvious talk of them trading for Sale. In my view, you don't hire Dave Dombrowski if your intention is to build through your farm a la cubs/90's atlanta. He's more akin to the yankees continually trading away most of their young players in the 90's to win today.
 

BaBaBlacksheep

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In the last 40 years teams have repeated as WS champs 3 times the Yankees in 1977-78, the Blue Jays in 1992-93 and the Yankees again with 3 in row in 1998, 1999 and 2000 that last being something I doubt we will ever see again. The odds against it are long and we saw last year winning a WS is very, very hard. Trading for Archer and trading Arrieta away so you don't lose him for a 3rd round draft pick does not do anything to diminish the initial odds of winning the WS in 2017 and greatly increases them for 2018. Archer is nearly as good as Arrieta and has room to improve. Frankly if June-September 2016 Jake shows up Archer is the better pitcher You always have to take the long view especially with a young core as good as this one. You want to make the playoffs every year and try to get 2 or 3 WS over say a 6 year period.

You're acting like you're trading Archer for Arrieta. You're not. You're trading Arrieta for a prospect who's approximately on the level of Dylan Cease. (50-100 ranking)
 

brett05

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I would agree with you if this was the same administration that built the farm. Ben Cherington was let go in favor of Dave Dombrowski in 2015 in large part due to his reluctance to trade talent to win. Mike hazen served as Dombrowski's GM last year and was a link to the old regime and a voice in the room urging caution. Hazen is gone and Dombrowski has traded young talent away throughout his career in order to increase his chances of winning. I firmly believe they will make a couple of signifignat trades. Of course who they trade will be commensurate with the return but could they trade Benintendi, Devers, Swihart and potentially others? Absolutely.
I had somehow ignored his history. So with your post I looked up Dave's history. He seems to get the better end of deals in trades with the teams his held the helm over and has shown a strong ability to rebuild minors as well. I'm not saying he doesn't trade away his top specs (minors or majors) but it doesn't really to be his MO, certainly not of late. Nor is the talk coming out of RedSox rumor mill seemingly that they want to trade those top tier folks either.

Like you, I am enjoying the offseason.
 

BaBaBlacksheep

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That's one take but I would argue it's short sighted. The problem with this line of thinking is you can't let Arrieta walk for nothing and given the new changes to the CBA that's essentially what happens if the cubs can't reach a common ground and re-sign him. Arrieta and Archer on top of Lester and Hendricks would be over kill even when you factor in a likely regression with Hendricks. I get the "wouldn't it be cool!" aspect of the thinking but it's a genuinely poor allocation of resources. In the scenario you present of someone getting hurt you'd rather have two 2 fWAR prospects in the high minors than 1 4 win Arrieta because the drop off from whoever the pitcher who is hurt to a 2 win prospect is far less than that same drop off to say Ryan Williams.

Obviously it depends on what prospect you're talking about here as Candelario doesn't really add much value in that circumstance but presumably if you're making this sort of trade to begin with you're also going to be moving parts to get pitching with upside in the high minors because they already have some upside pitching in A ball. Additionally, this sort of move(if it were to happen) isn't just about Arrieta. The cubs also are likely losing Lackey after net year too with nothing really worth while behind him in the minors for 2-3 years.

Essentially it comes down to trying to win it all in one year vs winning it all over 3-4 years. The cubs won over 100 games this year and the odds on them winning the WS to start the playoffs were around 20%. Even with Archer and Arrieta the odds are going to be below 33%. It's a bad bet to go in on one year.


How is this short sighted? The Cubs traded their best prospect for a one year rental last year and won the series. Was that short sighted? This year it's the opposite.... you're keeping Arrieta as essentially a one year rental instead of getting a prospect. Besides.... I love the idea of having a guy like Jake pitching on my team for his one big contract. I bet the guy is money this year.

I just don't get this thinking that it's so terrible to let Jake walk for nothing.... but it's OK to trade for a one year rental last year?
 

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How is this short sighted? The Cubs traded their best prospect for a one year rental last year and won the series. Was that short sighted? This year it's the opposite.... you're keeping Arrieta as essentially a one year rental instead of getting a prospect. Besides.... I love the idea of having a guy like Jake pitching on my team for his one big contract. I bet the guy is money this year.

I just don't get this thinking that it's so terrible to let Jake walk for nothing.... but it's OK to trade for a one year rental last year?
This is good. Who wrote it for you?
 

TC in Mississippi

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I had somehow ignored his history. So with your post I looked up Dave's history. He seems to get the better end of deals in trades with the teams his held the helm over and has shown a strong ability to rebuild minors as well. I'm not saying he doesn't trade away his top specs (minors or majors) but it doesn't really to be his MO, certainly not of late. Nor is the talk coming out of RedSox rumor mill seemingly that they want to trade those top tier folks either.

Like you, I am enjoying the offseason.

Nah, I don't think they want to trade those guys but I think they might or, perhaps, might not. They have an opportunity to be far and away the best team in the AL. Seemingly every team in the Central is rebuilding with the exception of Cleveland, the West is strong with Texas, Houston and Seattle but none of those clubs are currently much better than Boston and the Red Sox virtually have the East to themselves. Listen, Boston is my #2 team and I'd love to see them win, unless of course it's against the Cubs.
 

TC in Mississippi

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How is this short sighted? The Cubs traded their best prospect for a one year rental last year and won the series. Was that short sighted? This year it's the opposite.... you're keeping Arrieta as essentially a one year rental instead of getting a prospect. Besides.... I love the idea of having a guy like Jake pitching on my team for his one big contract. I bet the guy is money this year.

I just don't get this thinking that it's so terrible to let Jake walk for nothing.... but it's OK to trade for a one year rental last year?

Personally I think we'll all rue the day we traded Gleyber Torres, similarly to how many feel about trading Joe Carter, but yes, the World Series makes it all better. If Rondon had been healthy I don't think they make that deal but he clearly did not look like himself long before the DL stint so they absolutely had to make a move. I want multiple championships. My gut tells me that 2017 won't be one of our best opportunities. Not that we can't win it but I think the fact that this has been a team that has avoided pitching injuries for 2 years scares me a bit. I'd prefer to get younger with the acquisition of Archer and if Arrieta gets you a prospect, particularly a pitching prospect, that could be up in 2018 then so be it.
 

beckdawg

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How is this short sighted? The Cubs traded their best prospect for a one year rental last year and won the series. Was that short sighted? This year it's the opposite.... you're keeping Arrieta as essentially a one year rental instead of getting a prospect. Besides.... I love the idea of having a guy like Jake pitching on my team for his one big contract. I bet the guy is money this year.

I just don't get this thinking that it's so terrible to let Jake walk for nothing.... but it's OK to trade for a one year rental last year?

Was trading Torres for Chapman short sighted? Obviously you haven't read my thoughts but I said it was at the time and I'd argue it today. Think you can make a strong case that the 3 blown saves Chapman had in the playoffs were as negative to the team as that one strong game 5 run he's largely remembered for. Not to mention that's always going to be a bit of a disingenuous way to have the discussion because it's assuming there weren't other options out there. For example, Mark Melancon isn't Chapman. No one would seriously suggest he is. But he cost Washington Taylor Hearn and Felipe Rivero. Hearn's a 45 grade prospect in A ball. Rivero is an interesting reliever but neither of them is Torres. There was an article that came out talking about the trade after it happened that suggested the cubs own front office thought the Chapman trade took them from a 20% chance of winning it all to 25%. Obviously there's debate to be had on whether or not a 5% chance is worth it. Personally I say no.

Ultimately, my view is that if they can't re-sign him you deal him because in this particular trade market you might get far more value than you other wise would. Humor me for a moment on these prices as we don't really know what the will end up being but for example let's say you can trade for Archer with Soler, Happ, Montero(+offset money), Candelario(or equivalent prospect) and 2 or so 45 grade prospects. And let's then say you can get Francise Martes and David Paulino plus some lower level prospects from Houston or equivalent high minors pitching from someone else for Arrieta. You then line up Lester, Archer, Hendricks Lackey and Montgomery as your starting 5 with Martes and Paulino in AAA in case of injury both of whom could potentially be frontline starters. You've effectively turned one of your weaker areas(young pitching) into one of the stronger elements of the team having 4 guys you control for the next 5 or so years near the majors. The upshot of that is not only that you get younger but it also covers the loss of Arrieta after 2017 and the loss of Lackey without costing you much of the overall value in your system.

As I said it comes down to betting on 1 year vs betting on a larger window and I'm always going to take that larger window. Even if the cubs win it in 2017, you're going to then be in a situation where you're having to replace lackey and if we assume they make that same Archer trade they then have very very little to move and the FA market is very thin. Additionally, you're then hoping Underwood finally breaks out or else you don't really have anything in the high minors that is MLB ready.
 

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We will have the money. Extend/sign Arrieta and you've got Lester arrieta Hendricks archer going forward and the lineup locked up. 5th and 6th starters will show up.
 

BaBaBlacksheep

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Was trading Torres for Chapman short sighted? Obviously you haven't read my thoughts but I said it was at the time and I'd argue it today. Think you can make a strong case that the 3 blown saves Chapman had in the playoffs were as negative to the team as that one strong game 5 run he's largely remembered for. Not to mention that's always going to be a bit of a disingenuous way to have the discussion because it's assuming there weren't other options out there. For example, Mark Melancon isn't Chapman. No one would seriously suggest he is. But he cost Washington Taylor Hearn and Felipe Rivero. Hearn's a 45 grade prospect in A ball. Rivero is an interesting reliever but neither of them is Torres. There was an article that came out talking about the trade after it happened that suggested the cubs own front office thought the Chapman trade took them from a 20% chance of winning it all to 25%. Obviously there's debate to be had on whether or not a 5% chance is worth it. Personally I say no.

Ultimately, my view is that if they can't re-sign him you deal him because in this particular trade market you might get far more value than you other wise would. Humor me for a moment on these prices as we don't really know what the will end up being but for example let's say you can trade for Archer with Soler, Happ, Montero(+offset money), Candelario(or equivalent prospect) and 2 or so 45 grade prospects. And let's then say you can get Francise Martes and David Paulino plus some lower level prospects from Houston or equivalent high minors pitching from someone else for Arrieta. You then line up Lester, Archer, Hendricks Lackey and Montgomery as your starting 5 with Martes and Paulino in AAA in case of injury both of whom could potentially be frontline starters. You've effectively turned one of your weaker areas(young pitching) into one of the stronger elements of the team having 4 guys you control for the next 5 or so years near the majors. The upshot of that is not only that you get younger but it also covers the loss of Arrieta after 2017 and the loss of Lackey without costing you much of the overall value in your system.

As I said it comes down to betting on 1 year vs betting on a larger window and I'm always going to take that larger window. Even if the cubs win it in 2017, you're going to then be in a situation where you're having to replace lackey and if we assume they make that same Archer trade they then have very very little to move and the FA market is very thin. Additionally, you're then hoping Underwood finally breaks out or else you don't really have anything in the high minors that is MLB ready.

No, I had not read your thoughts on the trade. But I had/have zero issues with that trade.

I don't know enough about trade values to really know if the trades you proposed are workable.... but from my admittedly limited knowledge on this... they seem rather unrealistic? I would drive over my mother to get to the signing table on that Archer deal. Don't know Houston's system so I won't comment on that one.
 

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Nah, I don't think they want to trade those guys but I think they might or, perhaps, might not. They have an opportunity to be far and away the best team in the AL. Seemingly every team in the Central is rebuilding with the exception of Cleveland, the West is strong with Texas, Houston and Seattle but none of those clubs are currently much better than Boston and the Red Sox virtually have the East to themselves. Listen, Boston is my #2 team and I'd love to see them win, unless of course it's against the Cubs.
I'm nt sold at all on Seattle. But the Rangers and especially the Indians should be right there with the Boston's and Cubs and Dodgers
 

brett05

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Personally I think we'll all rue the day we traded Gleyber Torres, similarly to how many feel about trading Joe Carter, but yes, the World Series makes it all better. If Rondon had been healthy I don't think they make that deal but he clearly did not look like himself long before the DL stint so they absolutely had to make a move. I want multiple championships. My gut tells me that 2017 won't be one of our best opportunities. Not that we can't win it but I think the fact that this has been a team that has avoided pitching injuries for 2 years scares me a bit. I'd prefer to get younger with the acquisition of Archer and if Arrieta gets you a prospect, particularly a pitching prospect, that could be up in 2018 then so be it.
Yes you want to win multiple because now you have one. And that's a normal change in feelings. But no one will ever regret Torres. He could be a HOFer and it won't matter. The Cubs did what they are supposed to do. Win the World Series. And who is to say they don't win a few more still before Torres even sniffs Yankee Stadium?
 

brett05

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Was trading Torres for Chapman short sighted? Obviously you haven't read my thoughts but I said it was at the time and I'd argue it today. Think you can make a strong case that the 3 blown saves Chapman had in the playoffs were as negative to the team as that one strong game 5 run he's largely remembered for. Not to mention that's always going to be a bit of a disingenuous way to have the discussion because it's assuming there weren't other options out there. For example, Mark Melancon isn't Chapman. No one would seriously suggest he is. But he cost Washington Taylor Hearn and Felipe Rivero. Hearn's a 45 grade prospect in A ball. Rivero is an interesting reliever but neither of them is Torres. There was an article that came out talking about the trade after it happened that suggested the cubs own front office thought the Chapman trade took them from a 20% chance of winning it all to 25%. Obviously there's debate to be had on whether or not a 5% chance is worth it. Personally I say no.

Ultimately, my view is that if they can't re-sign him you deal him because in this particular trade market you might get far more value than you other wise would. Humor me for a moment on these prices as we don't really know what the will end up being but for example let's say you can trade for Archer with Soler, Happ, Montero(+offset money), Candelario(or equivalent prospect) and 2 or so 45 grade prospects. And let's then say you can get Francise Martes and David Paulino plus some lower level prospects from Houston or equivalent high minors pitching from someone else for Arrieta. You then line up Lester, Archer, Hendricks Lackey and Montgomery as your starting 5 with Martes and Paulino in AAA in case of injury both of whom could potentially be frontline starters. You've effectively turned one of your weaker areas(young pitching) into one of the stronger elements of the team having 4 guys you control for the next 5 or so years near the majors. The upshot of that is not only that you get younger but it also covers the loss of Arrieta after 2017 and the loss of Lackey without costing you much of the overall value in your system.

As I said it comes down to betting on 1 year vs betting on a larger window and I'm always going to take that larger window. Even if the cubs win it in 2017, you're going to then be in a situation where you're having to replace lackey and if we assume they make that same Archer trade they then have very very little to move and the FA market is very thin. Additionally, you're then hoping Underwood finally breaks out or else you don't really have anything in the high minors that is MLB ready.
1) As I have stated before, if there are failures for the Cubs it's in their lack of pitching from within
2) However, they have specs that they can trade for pitching. Now maybe not proven pitching but high grade minor league pitching. It will cost more than a one for one, but the Cubs can do that quite easily with their spec hitters.


So for that reason you go to do what you are supposed to do in 2017. Win a World Series. To me thoughts otherwise are foolish.
 

beckdawg

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No, I had not read your thoughts on the trade. But I had/have zero issues with that trade.

I don't know enough about trade values to really know if the trades you proposed are workable.... but from my admittedly limited knowledge on this... they seem rather unrealistic? I would drive over my mother to get to the signing table on that Archer deal. Don't know Houston's system so I won't comment on that one.

Difficult to say. I think there's a reasonable argument to be had that the Archer trade is fair. I did the math on the surplus value recently. Soler and Happ were something like $90 mil in surplus value. Archer was a bit harder to pin down because if you go based on his top end he's worth substantially more than 4ish fWAR he's been worth the past 3 years. But needless to say he's worth some where between $110-130 mil in surplus value. Candelario is worth around $20 mil. Montero is harder to place because you'd likely pay his contract down to where he was fairly even but that still has value to Tampa as their C situation is really bad. And the two 45 ish grade prospects have some value as well but not enough to really warrant big discussion.

Whether or not Tampa takes that trade is obviously another story. But, their front office has talked about being competitive in 2017. Candelario, Soler and Montero are all players that could play in the majors for them in 2017. And if the cubs were to instead put say Szczur or Zaguins in the trade instead of a lower level arm on the back end that could be a 4th useful piece for 2017. Those players aren't as sexy as a top 10 prospect but I feel like people often under value players who are ready. Many weren't that excited by Strop and Arrieta at the time either. And while I'm not going to suggest any of those 4 players will turn into the same value as Arrieta, someone like Strop is a very good example of how useful MLB ready parts can help rebuilding teams. Ultimately, you can't just gut your team down to bare bones because if you do that then there is no support when your young stars come up. Theo and Jed talked about this with some what puzzling at the time additions of Fowler and Ross.

So, that's why I can see TB doing a deal like this. It would definitely be quantity over quality but for a team with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, filling your 2017 roster isn't easy. And even if you only get 3 average players out of say Soler, Happ and Candelario, you are getting 18 years of control out of them vs the 5 years they have on archer. Realistically, you're probably talking around a 20 win estimation on Archer over that period. If those 3 are league average(2 wins) that's 36 win estimation out of them. And given their proximity to the majors they are less risky than say an A ball player.
 

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In the last 40 years teams have repeated as WS champs 3 times the Yankees in 1977-78, the Blue Jays in 1992-93 and the Yankees again with 3 in row in 1998, 1999 and 2000 that last being something I doubt we will ever see again. The odds against it are long and we saw last year winning a WS is very, very hard. Trading for Archer and trading Arrieta away so you don't lose him for a 3rd round draft pick does not do anything to diminish the initial odds of winning the WS in 2017 and greatly increases them for 2018. Archer is nearly as good as Arrieta and has room to improve. Frankly if June-September 2016 Jake shows up Archer is the better pitcher You always have to take the long view especially with a young core as good as this one. You want to make the playoffs every year and try to get 2 or 3 WS over say a 6 year period.

Hate to beat a dead horse, but that sounds a whole lot like how the Blackhawks take care of business. Even with the best franchise in the NHL, the Hawks only win Cups every other year.
 

TC in Mississippi

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Yes you want to win multiple because now you have one. And that's a normal change in feelings. But no one will ever regret Torres. He could be a HOFer and it won't matter. The Cubs did what they are supposed to do. Win the World Series. And who is to say they don't win a few more still before Torres even sniffs Yankee Stadium?

Reports are that the Yankees are so impressed with him that Torres is going to fast track through their system, starting the season in AA and possibly being up as soon as September 2017. they fully expect him to be a starting player to start 2018. That was reported yesterday. That said I have always defended Dallas Green for trading Joe Carter for Rick Sutcliffe for similar reasons so I'm not angry about the move, I just wish it hadn't been necessary. In that position it had to be Torres or Jimenez though and of course we all hope now that Jimenez will be the better player.

As far as winning multiple championships my desire for that has nothing to do with winning this past year. The day Theo arrived I knew that they were looking to build a program to get to the playoffs every year. I far prefer that approach than the stay close and pick your year approach. The reality is that you can't win every year but you can put yourself in position.
 

TC in Mississippi

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Hate to beat a dead horse, but that sounds a whole lot like how the Blackhawks take care of business. Even with the best franchise in the NHL, the Hawks only win Cups every other year.

Yep. It's exactly what the Blackhawks do and hockey actually makes it more difficult than baseball does which makes what Wirtz, McDonough, Bowman and company even more impressive.
 

beckdawg

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2) However, they have specs that they can trade for pitching. Now maybe not proven pitching but high grade minor league pitching. It will cost more than a one for one, but the Cubs can do that quite easily with their spec hitters.

My point was if they trade for Archer and get nothing when Arrieta walks they really don't have the prospects anymore. Even using my level of value on an Archer trade which is obviously lower than what you think he will go for their system would be left looking something like this

#1 Eloy Jiminez
#2 Dylan Cease
#3 Mark Zaguins
#4 Duane Underwood
#5 Oscar De La Cruz
#6 Trevor Clifton
#7 Jose Albertos
#8 Bryan Hudson
#9 Donnie Dewees
#10 DJ Wilson
#11 Eddy Martinez
#12 Tomas Hatch
#13 Victor Caritini
#14 Jake Stinnett
#15 Pierce Johnson

Now I like a lot of the cubs young arms and especially so with Cease and De La Cruz but you're talking about a lot of gamble on the cubs younger arms. There's talent there but projecting pitching below AA is rather pointless as so much can go wrong be it injury or just not being able to get more advanced batters out. Jiminez is largely the only guy in that group you can reliably put in a trade for any half decent pitcher on the block. And the obvious problem with that is even if they get Archer they still have to replace Lackey after 2017 when FA is likely just as bad. Sure you can go bargain hunting but what made the 2016 cubs so strong was how deep they were in their rotation. And obviously Lester could slow down with another year on him.

So, it's my opinion that if the cubs trade for Archer they aren't going to have much left in the tank.
 

brett05

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My point was if they trade for Archer and get nothing when Arrieta walks they really don't have the prospects anymore. Even using my level of value on an Archer trade which is obviously lower than what you think he will go for their system would be left looking something like this

#1 Eloy Jiminez
#2 Dylan Cease
#3 Mark Zaguins
#4 Duane Underwood
#5 Oscar De La Cruz
#6 Trevor Clifton
#7 Jose Albertos
#8 Bryan Hudson
#9 Donnie Dewees
#10 DJ Wilson
#11 Eddy Martinez
#12 Tomas Hatch
#13 Victor Caritini
#14 Jake Stinnett
#15 Pierce Johnson

Now I like a lot of the cubs young arms and especially so with Cease and De La Cruz but you're talking about a lot of gamble on the cubs younger arms. There's talent there but projecting pitching below AA is rather pointless as so much can go wrong be it injury or just not being able to get more advanced batters out. Jiminez is largely the only guy in that group you can reliably put in a trade for any half decent pitcher on the block. And the obvious problem with that is even if they get Archer they still have to replace Lackey after 2017 when FA is likely just as bad. Sure you can go bargain hunting but what made the 2016 cubs so strong was how deep they were in their rotation. And obviously Lester could slow down with another year on him.

So, it's my opinion that if the cubs trade for Archer they aren't going to have much left in the tank.
In your scenario who did they move to get Archer? Like in your top 15, I see no Happ
 

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