- Joined:
- May 28, 2010
- Posts:
- 7,474
- Liked Posts:
- 1,778
- Joined:
- Apr 18, 2010
- Posts:
- 3,276
- Liked Posts:
- 680
Fine because I don't see a better fit for him where he can go that he can win at all. You said Baltimore and Toronto neither of which have much of a shot of winning in the AL East. Milwaukee cannot afford him. That leaves the Cubs to me as the front runner.
Is it a certainty? No, nothing is, but the Cubs are definitely the front runners at this point. If I was given 2:1 odds or better on the Cubs I would put some good money on that.
He was, sorry.
That makes no sense. Why even bring it up then? CO nor I were talking about their talent level, just talking about 2010, which in case you missed it. Soto was the best offensive catcher in baseball.
He was.
Blind being the key word.
Yes good ole counting stats. I love em.
Even though they are predicated on PA. Soto made less outs.
Regardless Run Estimation for the Masses is why Soto was better. BA, SLG, HRs have a much lower correlation to overall run production than all the stats that Soto was better than.
And thats not "BS sabremetric babble" its simple math.
And as a stat like wRAA showed even with around 50 less PA Soto STILL outproduced him when giving each individual AB a run value.
I mean its not even hard math. We are talking entry level statistics here.
- Joined:
- Jun 7, 2011
- Posts:
- 18,077
- Liked Posts:
- 3,472
- Location:
- Chicago
Actually, according to Baseball-Reference, Posey had a composite 3.1 WAR and Soto had 3.3...this was in pretty much the same amount of playing time since Posey wasn't called up until mid-May or so, and Soto missed the final few weeks of the season due to injury. FanGraphs' WAR says Posey was at 3.8 last year, while Soto was at 3.0, but they use different metrics in their calculation so you can't compare rWAR to fWAR directly. You can't really use WAR in a vacuum to say one was better than the other, but if you check the leaderboards, you find that Soto did in fact lead the majors as a catcher in wOBA for those who had at least 200 PA, and had a higher SLG than Joe Mauer too. The only catcher with higher SLG than Soto? Buster Posey.
As a Giants fan I wouldn't mind the Cubs trading Soto to SF and getting some prospects back. Soto would be their catcher until Posey gets back, then they can shift Posey to 1B or the OF depending on what they want to do with Brandon Belt, with Soto behind the dish. The prospects for the Cubs would help them rebuild and set up a better foundation for contention in the future. Win-win, in my opinion.
The point isn't that one good season makes Soto better than the others...it really doesn't. But for a single season, Soto was one of the top offensive catchers in the majors, and he was arguably the best in terms of wOBA. Over the course of their careers, guys like Joe Mauer and Buster Posey will probably be better, but if Soto could ever get consistent, he's pretty solid. They should probably still trade Soto though.
As a Giants fan I wouldn't mind the Cubs trading Soto to SF and getting some prospects back. Soto would be their catcher until Posey gets back, then they can shift Posey to 1B or the OF depending on what they want to do with Brandon Belt, with Soto behind the dish. The prospects for the Cubs would help them rebuild and set up a better foundation for contention in the future. Win-win, in my opinion.
The point isn't that one good season makes Soto better than the others...it really doesn't. But for a single season, Soto was one of the top offensive catchers in the majors, and he was arguably the best in terms of wOBA. Over the course of their careers, guys like Joe Mauer and Buster Posey will probably be better, but if Soto could ever get consistent, he's pretty solid. They should probably still trade Soto though.
- Joined:
- May 28, 2010
- Posts:
- 7,474
- Liked Posts:
- 1,778
That's actually a pretty solid idea.
- Joined:
- May 4, 2010
- Posts:
- 27,077
- Liked Posts:
- 15,145
How do you knwo Milwaukee can't afford him?
What are you basing this on?
Your reasoning isn't really anything more than the Cubs being turd that smells the least.
Not very strong reasoning IMO..
But I guess grasp on to that if it helps you sleep at night.
You and CO are about the ONLY two people that think so.
Because I felt like it?
.
Yeah. That is the key word in term blind resume.
Excellent observation....
If blind wasn't the key word I could have just used resume.
Nice try with word play.
Didn't work out.
Keep lecturing me on stats. It's cute when you take into account my favorite team currently has Bill fucking James holding down a front office job.
LOL at you trying to use subjective stats and presenting them as some objective biblical hard and fast iron clad proof.
You do realize that wRAA is a sabre stat right..AND it's a counting stat.
- Joined:
- May 4, 2010
- Posts:
- 27,077
- Liked Posts:
- 15,145
I never said anything different.
In fact I said originally I'd slot Soto in behind Posey last season.
Is that somehow bad?
Somehow blanketly saying that Soto was the best in the MLB last season as if it isn't up for debate is 1. Laughable and 2. Basing it on nothing more than OPS, like CO did, is ridiculously stupid.
- Joined:
- May 4, 2010
- Posts:
- 27,077
- Liked Posts:
- 15,145
My "offensive catcher rankings" for 2010
1. Posey
2. Soto
3. V-Mart
4. Mauer
5. McCann
1. Posey
2. Soto
3. V-Mart
4. Mauer
5. McCann
- Joined:
- Apr 18, 2010
- Posts:
- 3,276
- Liked Posts:
- 680
Get ready to get slammed for using WAR, and the only issue with using WAR is it is a counting stat, which is why Mauer was at around 6 or so, but he played in nearly 50 more games than Soto and Posey.
I don't want to trade Soto because well who is going to play? Castillo to me is nothing special. Clevenger is bleh and Hill well he speaks for himself.
You are right Soto needs to put together a couple of seasons together, but I still wouldn't trade him for anything short of a kings ransom. He is still cheap and under team control and as he has shown in 2008 and 2010 he can be a big difference maker, and even in 2009 and 2011 he isn't really hurting the team. He is still average. He is 17th so far this year in wOBA (min 150 PA).
If we had a catcher behind him I would be okay but honestly we don't, and FA catchers are about as worthless as a poopy flavored lollipop.
- Joined:
- Jun 7, 2011
- Posts:
- 18,077
- Liked Posts:
- 3,472
- Location:
- Chicago
Yeah, you definitely can't say that Soto was the best except in a couple of categories, but he was pretty damned good. Some of it was probably contextual due to his spot in the batting order, but his plate discipline and ability to get on base is real. Despite his pathetic batting average so far this season, he's still able to get on base more than 30% of the time. Meanwhile, Castro and Barney pretty much HAVE to hit .300 or they won't get on base at that rate. So there's some stuff to be appreciated about Soto, but he's unfortunately not a superstar and likely won't ever be as he's getting older and is injury-prone. And he keeps batting 8th.
- Joined:
- Jun 7, 2011
- Posts:
- 18,077
- Liked Posts:
- 3,472
- Location:
- Chicago
The fact that he still has a couple seasons of arbitration eligibility left is why you should trade him earlier rather than later. You'd have to make a crazy overhaul and hope for some insane luck next season to hope the Cubs contend, in my opinion and based on projections going forward for the guys who are sticking around, so why keep a catcher who will 1) get older 2) start declining and 3) be more expensive, when you can give Castillo and Clevenger a shot, while also lowering costs and restocking the farm?
And I agree with you, I'm looking for a king's ransom here
I doubt they actually trade Soto though.
- Joined:
- May 4, 2010
- Posts:
- 27,077
- Liked Posts:
- 15,145
Excellent point and I agree.
It's not like I came in here and started spouting off that Soto sucks and is garbage. I ranked him directly behind Posey originally. Move Mauer, and V-Mart ahead of him for all I care. I really don't. Hell, I'll do it(and did it) myself.
- Joined:
- Apr 18, 2010
- Posts:
- 3,276
- Liked Posts:
- 680
I do sleep pretty well at night.
Well that's not true. I could find several people to agree with me. It really wouldn't even be hard.
I thought it worked pretty well.
Call Bill James. Ask him who was the best offensive catcher in baseball last year. Guarantee he doesnt say Posey.
Guaranteed.
In fact Bill James wrote a book and sent it to me. Unfortunately he doesn't give away hitting awards only fielding
He did rank catchers though offensively. He used OPS.
Can you guess who was first?
ummm if my stats are subjective yours are definitely subjective. Every stat in relative terms is subjective. What's the point of baseball? To win. And how do you win? Score runs.
My stats have a much higher correlation to scoring runs than ANY stat you brought up. Is it subjective? Sure, but its less subjective than saying well he had more HR's and a higher SLG despite those correlating MUCH lower to actual runs scored than OPS or wOBA.
That dear friends is simple math.
Yeah I covered that earlier, but for the slow kids I shall repost it.
It's been fun. It really has. But thats checkmate.
- Joined:
- Apr 18, 2010
- Posts:
- 3,276
- Liked Posts:
- 680
The fact that he still has a couple seasons of arbitration eligibility left is why you should trade him earlier rather than later. You'd have to make a crazy overhaul and hope for some insane luck next season to hope the Cubs contend, in my opinion and based on projections going forward for the guys who are sticking around, so why keep a catcher who will 1) get older 2) start declining and 3) be more expensive, when you can give Castillo and Clevenger a shot, while also lowering costs and restocking the farm?
And I agree with you, I'm looking for a king's ransom here
If you are looking to give up and start from scratch then yeah I wouldn't mind trading Soto but I would also be moving Castro and Cashner as well.
Same with Marmol and Marshall.
I do not think that's the way to go though, as I do not think this team is that far away. Think 2006 to 2007.
They added a huge FA (Soriano to Fielder) a semi big one (Lilly to Jason Kubel) and a smaller one (DeRosa to Kelly Johnson) and the team gained 20 wins. We have enough money coming off the books to make those moves, and you probably don't even need Kubel just used him for comparisons sake.
- Joined:
- Jun 7, 2011
- Posts:
- 18,077
- Liked Posts:
- 3,472
- Location:
- Chicago
I wish the Ricketts were more transparent about their finances and stuff but I think they also have a reason not to be, to give the Cubs fans reason to think that the team can always be competitive. I just feel that there are too many holes to fill. I wouldn't give Castro away, but I'd agree with a full-scale rebuild that includes trading everyone above the age of 25.
Let's say Soto is "even year Soto" in 2012 and does what he did in 2008 and 2010. There's our catcher. He's also going to be 29, and again, injury-prone and possibly on the decline. Getting more expensive too.
Fielder at first base, that's a no-brainer. He shouldn't lose his power or production for a couple more years at least.
2B ---> Darwin Barney (lol), Jeff Baker (lol), or Kelly Johnson (meh...) would probably be the weak spot in the lineup.
SS ---> Castro, who is exciting to watch but his offensive ability is tied in with his batting average and he hits a lot of singles. Hopefully he grows into power, and I guess you have to bank on that since he's only 21 going on 22.
3B ---> not Ramirez (bought out)...so who? Marquez Smith? Josh Vitters?
LF ---> Soriano (probably washed up though he has power still)
CF ---> Brett Jackson, whom I'm really excited about. OBP + defense + general baseball smarts and tools
RF ---> Byrd (probably should've traded him by 2012), or insert scrub here.
I can see reasons why this could be a contender, but I can see numerous reasons why they won't be. I honestly don't know one way or the other, but my thing is that just because you have tons of money available doesn't mean it should be thrown at the MLB payroll for another half-ass contender like they did this year. But it is a lot of money coming off the books so I can see them making a play for Fielder. How likely do you think Fielder wants to become a Cub given the status of this team, though?
- Joined:
- May 4, 2010
- Posts:
- 27,077
- Liked Posts:
- 15,145
PSD doesn't count.
They aren't people.
See previous remarks in terms of finding people.
Is this the same guarantee you have on Fielder to the Cubs and do you have James' digits?
Soto.
And again, ranking players by merely ONE stat is absurd.
I don't think that has to be pointed out.
Did I ever imply they weren't?
Except for RBI's which actually shows how many runs were scored off their at bat's.
Guess who lead that one?!?
AND AROUND WE GO!
Ok.
Then quit making seem as though it's such a "lock" that Soto was the best. If it's subjective, it's not a lock, a fact, beyond debate, beyond reproach, etc.
I said I'm taking Posey 10 times out of 10. Obviously my evaluation was subjective. As is yours.
As are the stats. So it's impossible for it to be "beyond debate" or however anyone else wants to put it or imply it.
Missed the point yet again.
You discount counting stats when you don't like them, yet when they support your view point you cite them, in the case of wRAA.
On top of that you said it's not "sabremetric babble" THEN proceeded to give me a sabre stat.
How is this irony wasted on you?
- Joined:
- Jun 7, 2011
- Posts:
- 18,077
- Liked Posts:
- 3,472
- Location:
- Chicago
I'd like to point out that RBI is a context-dependent stat as you can only have RBI when men are already on base, unless you just keep hitting homers every time. OPS isn't perfect but at least evaluates the individual player's skill independently of his teammates, in particular his ability to get on base safely, and his power.
But I do agree that it's silly to use one stat to say "this guy is clearly the best" whether it be OPS or RBIs.
But I do agree that it's silly to use one stat to say "this guy is clearly the best" whether it be OPS or RBIs.
- Joined:
- May 4, 2010
- Posts:
- 27,077
- Liked Posts:
- 15,145
Good thing Posey had more HR's then.
And in these two Soto and Posey split. Bosey lead in slugging, Soto lead in OBP...which as you pointed out could have been weighted because they were pitching around him at times to get to the pitcher.
There's no "clean" way to evaluate this.
- Joined:
- Apr 18, 2010
- Posts:
- 3,276
- Liked Posts:
- 680
I was thinking Kelly Johnson for 3B and Barney/Baker for 2B. I would actually like to find a 2B that can hit RHP. Someone like Adam Kennedy could probably be had for around a million and a platoon of Baker/Kennedy would at worst be league average.
I hope Byrd isnt in RF. I would like to see someone like Kubel/Ludwick/Fukudome out there.
How does Fielder feel about the Cubs? That I don't know. There is some bad blood between the Cubs and Brewers and that could be a detriment. Ultimately though money talks.
- Joined:
- Jun 7, 2011
- Posts:
- 18,077
- Liked Posts:
- 3,472
- Location:
- Chicago
Good thing Posey had more HR's then.
Hehe...yeah, Posey had 18, Soto had 17, but Posey also had about 60 more plate appearances to get that extra homer. Posey also had a slightly higher SLG. He was definitely deserving of the ROY award although if you graded it by WAR Jason Heyward probably should've gotten it. Push comes to shove, you give it to the catcher because his position's much more demanding.
Overall, Posey is younger (albeit broken at the moment) and has a pretty good future so I'd build a team around him instead of Soto, assuming Posey can continue to play catcher, or even play at all after that injury.
- Joined:
- Apr 18, 2010
- Posts:
- 3,276
- Liked Posts:
- 680
I completely disagree. wOBA is a stat that evaluates it perfectly. It uses linear weights. Each PA outcome is weighted by a run value. wRC+ can be used for park factors though.
Staff online NOW
-
bamainatlantaYou wake him up, you keep him up