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John Morosi says the Tigers remain interested in Dempster.
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Pretty even handed look at what a team like the Dodgers are getting with Dempster: http://mlb.si.com/2012/07/20/a-clear-eyed-assessment-of-ryan-dempsters-trade-value/
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lol @ FIP. wow. lets use a metric that "predicts" and use it as fact. unreal.
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FIP is more consistent from year-to-year than ERA and if you look at a large sample of FIP over past seasons you can use it to better predict future performance. That doesn't mean it's perfect because obviously a pitcher can suddenly forget how to pitch (i.e. Tim Lincecum) but you have to start somewhere.
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My favorite teams
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There's four or five hours before first pitch so they still have time to pull the trigger but there's no point in trading him for scraps if he's possibly worth more. At the same time you don't want him to get injured and then you're left with nothing, but such is the business.
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yeah ok CO. FIP is a projector and nothing more. sorry I dont invest into anything that is a "projection" and not actual FACT. are you dense?
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Latest MLBTR blurb says there's a 50-50 chance the Dodgers and Cubs pull the trigger on the deal. If there are multiple random scrubs in STL tonight I think they can push Dempster back as much as they can so he doesn't actually have to pitch.
ZDemp34
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I agree. If the deal really is this imminent, they shouldn't start him.
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Right, but what they did before (fact) includes their FIP calculations and that is projectable to future production, which is what GMs have to do pre-trade to determine whether they want to give up the asking price. I don't think that's a big issue, it's the logical thing to do because you don't know what is exactly going to happen, but you have a pretty good idea. I think most GMs are also aware that Demp is pitching with the benefit of a lot of luck and that projection has to include some regression.
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you dont need FIP to say he isnt a 1.86 pitcher going forward. than again he could and maybe even be better going forward.....baseball is not predictable and there isnt a metric that can predict an outcome for a pitcher. If there is a metric that can predict the future than I know for sure that michael J fox was in a real time machine.
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What I am saying is that FIP is more projectable than ERA or line drive rate etc. You also know from the pitcher's history how many homers he's likely to give up, how many innings he can eat, etc. FIP is only one part of the equation, but if you look at Dempster's FIP and xFIP, it's been very consistent since he was returned to the rotation. Of course you can't make an exact prediction, but GMs have to start somewhere, and that means using the best projectable metrics at their disposal. I don't think there's anything wrong with that, because there's no better way I can think of to do it. Scouts are good but often wrong, and GMs can do their best to punch in numbers on a spreadsheet but their prized pitching acquisition could get run over by a car ten minutes after they sign the contract. Shit happens. But you have to start somewhere.
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im sure they are using proprietary metrics and advanced scouting over FIP.
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That's probably true, but the underlying theory is the same; you want a guy who doesn't walk a lot of people (good control), doesn't give up tons of home runs (duh) and strikes out more than his fair share of batters (bonus). Proprietary or not, scouting or spreadsheets, that stuff is important. That is FIP in a nutshell, and that metric is consistent throughout Dempster's latest tenure as a starter.
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Shameless self plug for my thoughts about the situation with Dempster right now:
http://worldseriesdreaming.com/2012/07/20/playin-chicken/
http://worldseriesdreaming.com/2012/07/20/playin-chicken/
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Judd Sirrot just said on MLB Network that Dempster is still scheduled to start and that club officials expect him to take the mound. The game continues...
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Here's to hoping he gets traded prior to the game tonight.
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as of right this second per muskrat demp is in the clubhouse getting ready to start.
pray he continues to have a good outing and doesnt get hurt.
pray he continues to have a good outing and doesnt get hurt.
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I say let him pitch 1 inning...get the cubs scoreless pitching record then pull him
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Dodgers, Braves, Nationals are considered frontrunners. Hasn't changed since last check. Still two hours before he has to start long-toss for warmups.
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