Starlin Castro's Error Tracker (2014 Edition!)

[MRubio52]

I'm not saying here's bad. However, I wonder where his top end bat wise is. If he's a .290/.330 type with 10-15 HRs and say 10 steals he's an above average player especially at SS but I just don't see the more upside than that. He's already lost some of his speed and I suppose he can add some more power as he gets a little older but I think he's kind of what he is now.

I can see 25 HRs out of him.

Lets get irresponsible and put .330 and 25 bombs on him.

At short.

You know how crazy that is production wise?


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[chibears55]

I'm not saying here's bad. However, I wonder where his top end bat wise is. If he's a .290/.330 type with 10-15 HRs and say 10 steals he's an above average player especially at SS but I just don't see the more upside than that. He's already lost some of his speed and I suppose he can add some more power as he gets a little older but I think he's kind of what he is now.

You wouldn't want a .300 hitting SS with 15+ HR power ?
Am I missing something ? Are there a bunch of SS out there that provides better then that ?

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[beckdawg]

I can see 25 HRs out of him.

Lets get irresponsible and put .330 and 25 bombs on him.

At short.

You know how crazy that is production wise?


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If he gets there then yeah I agree with you. But until he gets that sort of power I think my concerns are fair. I really think the comparison to Asdrubal Cabrera, Alexei Ramirez, and Jed Lowrie I threw out is fair in terms of value. In the case of Lowrie he's been between 2-3.5 WAR. Alexei has been between 2-4 WAR. Cabrera has been between 2-3.5 WAR. If he stays at that level, Lowrie has been traded already. Alexei and Cabrera have been talked about as players who could be dealt. One thing Castro has going for him though is other than last year he's been more consistent which has been some of the problem with the 3 above.

The way I view things which people have disagreed with is that if Baez makes it as the player he appears to be his bat has the most value at SS. I think he can play a similar level of defense to Castro and the upside with his bat is apparent. The argument then becomes who do you like better as your second middle infielder Castro or Alcantara? In theory, you can move Baez to 2B but in practice that then kills Alcantara's best position which would likely mean a trade. Offensively I think Alcantara will eventually offer more because he's a switch hitter(they lack left handed bats) and he has a bit more power and speed. The only other option I see is Baez to 3B which would open up a spot for Alcantara. However, that then impacts Bryant and Olt as well as other prospects in the system who are well thought of. And if it comes down to trading a player, Castro who can man SS better than Alcantara would have more value. It may seem counter intuitive to trade the "more valuable" player but if Baez can play SS as well as Castro and hits like is expected he's more valuable than Castro and you don't exactly need a SS to play 2B especially if Alcantara ends up being a better hitter.

Ultimately, it may be 2-3 years before they have to make a decision. By that point, Castro will be making $9-10 mil and wont be as cheap and will be 27-28. And I get that there's a lot of if's in what I outlined. But, ultimately I see that scenario as having the highest upside for the Cubs if things play out. Castro very well could net them a really decent starter at that point which appears to be the biggest area of future need. It seems unlikely that Alcantara could provide similar return but from the cubs perspective Baez/Alcantara as the middle infield vs Baez/Castro would likely have similar production.

I'm willing to admit there's a lot of moving parts to what I just outlined but like I said I think it may be the best possible outcome.

 

[diavolos]

You wouldn't want a .300 hitting SS with 15+ HR power ?

who wouldn't? but where are the cubs going to get him from cause he isnt on the roster right now. and .330 with 25+ hrs isnt crazy production, it is just plain crazy as in insane.

 

[SilenceS]

I'm not saying here's bad. However, I wonder where his top end bat wise is. If he's a .290/.330 type with 10-15 HRs and say 10 steals he's an above average player especially at SS but I just don't see the more upside than that. He's already lost some of his speed and I suppose he can add some more power as he gets a little older but I think he's kind of what he is now.

So, just to clarify? Him and Rizzo are the same age but you think Rizzo has more power but Castro doesnt? Not putti ng words in your mouth just asking? Another thing, Castro is not in his prime and was called up way to early? How doesnt he have room to grow? Also, if anyone is expecting Tulo. Castro isnt him but he is one of the better hitting SS in the league with average D. Until, the Cubs have someone else better at D. Why would anyone trade him or want to replace him? Yet again, not being a dick. Just trying to clarify. I feel like he isnt the new flavor of the month so people dont like him. Almora ceiling is what Castro is doing now but people love all over him.

 

[Boobaby1]

So, just to clarify? Him and Rizzo are the same age but you think Rizzo has more power but Castro doesnt? Not putti ng words in your mouth just asking? Another thing, Castro is not in his prime and was called up way to early? How doesnt he have room to grow? Also, if anyone is expecting Tulo. Castro isnt him but he is one of the better hitting SS in the league with average D. Until, the Cubs have someone else better at D. Why would anyone trade him or want to replace him? Yet again, not being a dick. Just trying to clarify. I feel like he isnt the new flavor of the month so people dont like him. Almora ceiling is what Castro is doing now but people love all over him.

Why would you trade him? Because in 2-3 years, the pitching will be more important. Have you ever watched Castro in the field. He looks bored to death with little to no emotion. Pray he continues to hit, trade him while you can and sell high.

Good teams are supposed to be stellar up the middle i.e. pitching, catching, infield and CF. Castro is not stellar up the middle defensively and never will be, so fans seem to get ultra enamored with his hitting potential, or what he did in the past.

Second, it doesn't matter if the Cubs have someone better right now because they aren't competing. The Cubs are almost out of options with parent level players to net pitching unless they go the FA route, and even then the cupboard is pretty bare in the minors with top end talent.

You can't trade Shark and hope to get top talent in return, because it's basically a wash because you take a risk that they make it to his levels, and then and only then does it payoff because of the cost control. I believe if they need a SS in a couple of years, they can probably find a better defensive one who may hit less for average, but yet may have a better OPB which I am cool with.

Almora appears to be the CF in a couple of years so that helps solidify one position, and lets hope Baez goes to 3B, Alcantara to 2B, Bryant and Soler to the outfield if no one is traded, and yes, the Cubs would have enough money by then with all of that cost control to get the best free agent SS and catcher on the market if they don't have anything in house.

That is why you trade him.

 

[beckdawg]

So, just to clarify? Him and Rizzo are the same age but you think Rizzo has more power but Castro doesnt? Not putti ng words in your mouth just asking? Another thing, Castro is not in his prime and was called up way to early? How doesnt he have room to grow? Also, if anyone is expecting Tulo. Castro isnt him but he is one of the better hitting SS in the league with average D. Until, the Cubs have someone else better at D. Why would anyone trade him or want to replace him? Yet again, not being a dick. Just trying to clarify. I feel like he isnt the new flavor of the month so people dont like him. Almora ceiling is what Castro is doing now but people love all over him.

I'm not saying Castro can't develop more power. I just think it's more likely Rizzo will because a 24 year old 1B is going to bulk up as he ages. On the other hand, not all young SS do. Don't get me wrong, some do and Castro could be one of them. But other times you end up with guys who hit 15-20 HRs as a 24-25 year old end up hitting in that range the rest of their career(See: Jeter).

As for trading him, I have always said I want to see other players perform before you consider it. I'm just saying I think they will. I could obviously be wrong and what I've said is a moot point then. Maybe it's a waste of time to talk about it but what else do we have to look forward to ya know? As for Almora, I agree that Castro and him are probably similar players. I'm not in love with Almora. I think he can be a decent OF. In the prospect thing I did at the start of the year I compared him to a Denard Span type unless he gets better than his numbers looked at the time I was looking at them. Span is a decent OF but hardly a star. That's how I feel about Castro too. If Castro starts putting on more muscle as he ages which he could and gets to the 20-25 HR yearly marks then my opinion of him probably changes.

The biggest issue I have with Castro at the moment is that if he continues to be a 15 HR yearly guy his lack of walks really limits his value. His .337 OBP this year isn't bad but previous years have put him in a lower range which kills his value as a 1/2 hitter. His aggressive approach might work for a decent 5 hitter but you probably want more power out of the 5 hole. So, right now he may be more of a 6-8 hitter on a better team than the cubs. Ideally he'd be more like Jeter was during his prime as a hitter. Jeter is a career .312/.380/.445 hitter and is the offense first SS without major power that Castro is at the moment. Castro on the other hand is .283/.323/.408. Castro's giving up 28 points of OBP just due to fewer walks. I'm not saying Castro has to be a hall of fame type player just illustrating the difference between a really good 1/2 hitter who's a offense first SS and what Castro has done thus far.

And again, I'm not trying to crap on Castro. I think he's a pretty good 6-8 hitter on most if not all teams. I just am saying I think he has some what limited value at the moment. It's just unsettling to me talking about an offense first player who may have trouble slotting into the top 5 slots hitting. If Alcantara is the player he appeared to be in AA last year(4% walk rate this year is no good though), you're talking about someone who hit .271/.352/.451 with 15 HRs and 31 SB and can switch hit. That player slots much better into a 1/2 holes than what we've seen from Castro thus far. That's honestly all I'm trying to get at.

 

[SilenceS]

I'm not saying Castro can't develop more power. I just think it's more likely Rizzo will because a 24 year old 1B is going to bulk up as he ages. On the other hand, not all young SS do. Don't get me wrong, some do and Castro could be one of them. But other times you end up with guys who hit 15-20 HRs as a 24-25 year old end up hitting in that range the rest of their career(See: Jeter).

As for trading him, I have always said I want to see other players perform before you consider it. I'm just saying I think they will. I could obviously be wrong and what I've said is a moot point then. Maybe it's a waste of time to talk about it but what else do we have to look forward to ya know? As for Almora, I agree that Castro and him are probably similar players. I'm not in love with Almora. I think he can be a decent OF. In the prospect thing I did at the start of the year I compared him to a Denard Span type unless he gets better than his numbers looked at the time I was looking at them. Span is a decent OF but hardly a star. That's how I feel about Castro too. If Castro starts putting on more muscle as he ages which he could and gets to the 20-25 HR yearly marks then my opinion of him probably changes.

The biggest issue I have with Castro at the moment is that if he continues to be a 15 HR yearly guy his lack of walks really limits his value. His .337 OBP this year isn't bad but previous years have put him in a lower range which kills his value as a 1/2 hitter. His aggressive approach might work for a decent 5 hitter but you probably want more power out of the 5 hole. So, right now he may be more of a 6-8 hitter on a better team than the cubs. Ideally he'd be more like Jeter was during his prime as a hitter. Jeter is a career .312/.380/.445 hitter and is the offense first SS without major power that Castro is at the moment. Castro on the other hand is .283/.323/.408. Castro's giving up 28 points of OBP just due to fewer walks. I'm not saying Castro has to be a hall of fame type player just illustrating the difference between a really good 1/2 hitter who's a offense first SS and what Castro has done thus far.

And again, I'm not trying to crap on Castro. I think he's a pretty good 6-8 hitter on most if not all teams. I just am saying I think he has some what limited value at the moment. It's just unsettling to me talking about an offense first player who may have trouble slotting into the top 5 slots hitting. If Alcantara is the player he appeared to be in AA last year(4% walk rate this year is no good though), you're talking about someone who hit .271/.352/.451 with 15 HRs and 31 SB and can switch hit. That player slots much better into a 1/2 holes than what we've seen from Castro thus far. That's honestly all I'm trying to get at.

You do realize that at this point Castro is a better hitting SS then Rizzo is a hitting 1st baseman. You are trying to slot him into a spot. Castro hits 20 plus homers. He could bat anywhere in the lineup. His OPS is not the second best in the league at SS. He is driving the ball this year. He is maturing as a player. Castro was plucked out of AA when he was not ready. He wasnt mentally there and wasnt fundamentally there. Now, he is starting to blossom and people want to chunk him to the side. Not saying you just some. Alcantara isnt really killing AAA. He is hitting in the .260s not walking and a weak OPS in a hitters league. Castro was more advanced then him at a younger age so I wouldnt bank on him coming through automatically.

 

[Boobaby1]

You do realize that at this point Castro is a better hitting SS then Rizzo is a hitting 1st baseman. You are trying to slot him into a spot. Castro hits 20 plus homers. He could bat anywhere in the lineup. His OPS is not the second best in the league at SS. He is driving the ball this year. He is maturing as a player. Castro was plucked out of AA when he was not ready. He wasnt mentally there and wasnt fundamentally there. Now, he is starting to blossom and people want to chunk him to the side. Not saying you just some. Alcantara isnt really killing AAA. He is hitting in the .260s not walking and a weak OPS in a hitters league. Castro was more advanced then him at a younger age so I wouldnt bank on him coming through automatically.

And the Cubs have 3 players that could legitimately get back pitching in return, and that is Shark, Rizzo, and Castro. Who do you give up?

Once Shark is gone, then what? Still not much pitching because he is now gone, and you shifted from proven, to unproven.

The logical choice would be Castro IMO.

You can't be afraid to sell. It isn't as if the Cubs would be trading away a future Mike Trout or something.

 

[beckdawg]

You do realize that at this point Castro is a better hitting SS then Rizzo is a hitting 1st baseman. You are trying to slot him into a spot. Castro hits 20 plus homers. He could bat anywhere in the lineup. His OPS is not the second best in the league at SS. He is driving the ball this year. He is maturing as a player. Castro was plucked out of AA when he was not ready. He wasnt mentally there and wasnt fundamentally there. Now, he is starting to blossom and people want to chunk him to the side. Not saying you just some. Alcantara isnt really killing AAA. He is hitting in the .260s not walking and a weak OPS in a hitters league. Castro was more advanced then him at a younger age so I wouldnt bank on him coming through automatically.

Castro hasn't hit 20 HRs in his career....yet. His highest was 14 in 2012. At 6 he's on pace a good pace this year. As I said, if he turns into a 20-25 HR guy my opinion probably changes. If he is that sort of player he is easier to slot into a line up. As for Alcantara, I mentioned he wasn't killing it yet this year.

 

[SilenceS]

And the Cubs have 3 players that could legitimately get back pitching in return, and that is Shark, Rizzo, and Castro. Who do you give up?

Once Shark is gone, then what? Still not much pitching because he is now gone, and you shifted from proven, to unproven.

The logical choice would be Castro IMO.

You can't be afraid to sell. It isn't as if the Cubs would be trading away a future Mike Trout or something.

I would sell prospects before Castro. Also, there is some big pitching coming up in FA. Teams covet their top of the line pitching. The Cubs better hit on some in the draft or sign some because to trade for an Ace will cost you so much that it will be a huge risk. Im not afraid to sell. I believe you are trying to plug one hole by creating a new hole.

 

[chibears55]

And the Cubs have 3 players that could legitimately get back pitching in return, and that is Shark, Rizzo, and Castro. Who do you give up?

Once Shark is gone, then what? Still not much pitching because he is now gone, and you shifted from proven, to unproven.

The logical choice would be Castro IMO.

You can't be afraid to sell. It isn't as if the Cubs would be trading away a future Mike Trout or something.

Ok.. say they trade Castro this deadline...
What kind of pitching prospect do you expect in return ?
You really think a team going to give up their top pitcher for him ?

If he reached his peak as you say and is bad defensively and is dumb and stares into space.. I assume other teams scouts and GMs would share your opinion of him, you think their willing to give up solid pitching prospects for him now ?

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[Boobaby1]

Ok.. say they trade Castro this deadline...
What kind of pitching prospect do you expect in return ?
You really think a team going to give up their top pitcher for him ?

If he reached his peak as you say and is bad defensively and is dumb and stares into space.. I assume other teams scouts and GMs would share your opinion of him, you think their willing to give up solid pitching prospects for him now ?

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Teams that have a surplus in pitching prospects could deal for him, and their are more out there than you think. The Cubs don't have much at all, and they need it in the worst way. There is where you swing a deal.

The value of trading a major leaguer versus swapping minor leaguers is where the value for the other team is. The whole premise of my point is when I stated that I hope he stays hitting so that his value will be higher. Pretty hard to trade someone who is slumping and an average defender.

If he is hitting, at least it takes some of the focus off of his shortcomings.

It appears that you are afraid to sell on him. You are acting as if the Cubs are on the verge of being a WS team or something. They are in last place and staying there for a while. You get pitching first, any way you can, NOW.

 

[chibears55]

Teams that have a surplus in pitching prospects could deal for him, and their are more out there than you think. The Cubs don't have much at all, and they need it in the worst way. There is where you swing a deal.

The value of trading a major leaguer versus swapping minor leaguers is where the value for the other team is. The whole premise of my point is when I stated that I hope he stays hitting so that his value will be higher. Pretty hard to trade someone who is slumping and an average defender.

If he is hitting, at least it takes some of the focus off of his shortcomings.

It appears that you are afraid to sell on him. You are acting as if the Cubs are on the verge of being a WS team or something. They are in last place and staying there for a while. You get pitching first, any way you can, NOW.

Has nothing to do with being afraid to move him..

dont know who these surplus of teams are that needs a SS and has surplus of top pitching prospects available. .

I doubt teams are willing to trade away their top pitching prospects now , so the best your gonna get in return for him is maybe 2 mid level prospects who will have just the same potential as everyone else in their system.

You just don't trade away a young solid player for mid level prospects. ..

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[diavolos]

Ok.. say they trade Castro this deadline...
What kind of pitching prospect do you expect in return ?
You really think a team going to give up their top pitcher for him ?

If he reached his peak as you say and is bad defensively and is dumb and stares into space.. I assume other teams scouts and GMs would share your opinion of him, you think their willing to give up solid pitching prospects for him now ?

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if he is as great as you say his is, you would get quite a haul in return for him which would be much, much greater than just the mid level prospects you claim. if all you can truly get back for him is mid level prospects, he isn't the solid young player you claim he is.

 

[SilenceS]

Well, I think its safe to say that he has def. taken strides. He is now 3rd in the league in average, 2nd in OPS, and 2nd in wOBA for qualifying SS. wOBA is a better indicator then OBP. He also has a OPS+ of 122. Yea, he isnt this light hitting SS this year.

 

[chibears55]

if he is as great as you say his is, you would get quite a haul in return for him which would be much, much greater than just the mid level prospects you claim. if all you can truly get back for him is mid level prospects, he isn't the solid young player you claim he is.

Never said he was great , just dont think you need to deal him away now..

So then if he as bad as you say he is for the reason you want to deal him , then again youd be lucky to get a mid level prospect..

see how that works. ..



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[dabears253313]

Starlin Castro > Javier Baez

 

[diavolos]

if baez is as great as everyone seems to think, then aren't the cubs blocking him with castro there?

i get why people seems to like him, but it's all based on potential, nothing more. certainly not the numbers he's already generated in his mlb career. i think his average is deceptive, frankly. when you delve into the numbers a little more, you can see that he's not really a clutch player. which would be fine for a ss, except he costs the team runs with his defense. one thing i find interesting is how few intentional walks he's had. it's almost like no one else in the league is scared of him. and if you look at win probability for his bat, then that bears that out. when the pressure's on, castro is not there. we've all seen that right? his head just is not in the game most of the time. i was watching, i believe it was the first game versus the sox that went into extra innings. rizzo clearly shortened his swing and worked the count. and castro with 2 men on, in the bottom of the 11th (or 12th) was just swinging wildly for the fences. that was just frustrating to me, you've got the winning run in scoring position, put the ball in play.

someone mentioned 25+ homers. i wish i knew where that opinion was coming from. because we have not seen that yet.

also, i don't hate the person. i'm sure he's a fine young man. but if we want the team to improve, then we're just talking about the stats available to us and to all scouts and gm's. we all see the same thing, right? baseball reference is free.

 

[diavolos]

not to mix metaphors.....

but compare the performance of a castro in one sport versus the performance of jonathan toews. no, i know, not the greatest cross-sport comparison. but bear with me.

if you look at toews, he's not putting up the huge offensive regular season numbers that guys did in the 80's and 90's, like a joe sakic or others. but in the playoffs, the guy is total money. in the playoffs, he looks like the best player on the ice, presumably the toughest time to play. same with kane. kane does not light the world on fire during the regular season like an ovechkin, but come playoffs, the guy is an assassin out there.

if you want to rip my metaphor, then fine. but my point is that castro does not seem to be a clutch player. maybe it's because the whole organization is so awful right now? maybe that's putting too much onto castro's shoulders? i don't know. as with the rest of you, it's upsetting that the team is so bad, and i know we all just dearly wish that a championship would come to town.