Tanaka Watch Thread (Cubs Edition)

[dabynsky]

you dont need an "ace" like player like verlander,felix,kershaw etc. you need a rotation that is all 2s and 3s. also...tanaka is NOT projected to be an ace. so you are giving an unknown 160 million. that is a huge huge gamble. so if the market is upper 20s low 30s..,tanaka should not get that.


Sent from my Rotary Phone using Tapatalk

But a number 2 is what Tanaka might be, and given his age is going to get paid as such. The price tag he is getting right now is not out of line with what those type of pitchers get. As I've said before 7/160 is not what an ace commands on the open market today. At 7/160 that is a fair bit lower AAV than Greinke received on the open market. I don't see why this is such a shocking number is the point given that the high end pitchers command significantly more than what Tanaka is getting.

 

[chibears55]

you dont need an "ace" like player like verlander,felix,kershaw etc. you need a rotation that is all 2s and 3s. also...tanaka is NOT projected to be an ace. so you are giving an unknown 160 million. that is a huge huge gamble. so if the market is upper 20s low 30s..,tanaka should not get that.


Sent from my Rotary Phone using Tapatalk

for whatever its worth, the cubs scouts have been watching him pitch since he was 19, as im sure others have. so he not as much of an unknown as you think.. im sure teams arent going to pay a guy 20+ Mil per on a hope. theyve seen enough of him and his stuff to know if he worth the money. this is where teams have to trust their scouts, pretty much like when their drafting a top prospect.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I437 using Tapatalk

 

[DewsSox79]

But a number 2 is what Tanaka might be, and given his age is going to get paid as such. The price tag he is getting right now is not out of line with what those type of pitchers get. As I've said before 7/160 is not what an ace commands on the open market today. At 7/160 that is a fair bit lower AAV than Greinke received on the open market. I don't see why this is such a shocking number is the point given that the high end pitchers command significantly more than what Tanaka is getting.

Wow! of all people to defend the move and the money. im kind of shocked.


Sent from my Rotary Phone using Tapatalk

 

[Jntg4]

Wow! of all people to defend the move and the money. im kind of shocked.


Sent from my Rotary Phone using Tapatalk

Let's look at the pros and the cons:
Pros:
Free agent at a young age (what is he again, 25?)
Does not cost prospects
Adds another legitimate arm at worst to the starting rotation, impact arm at best
Young talented free agents are very rare
Generates more interest among fairweathers with a big offseason splash
Potentially accelerates rebuilding phase

Cons:
Huge commitment for a NPB skillset that may not be successful at MLB level
$$$
Years

There is cases for both, but I'm all about going all-out on the international market.

 

[dabynsky]

Wow! of all people to defend the move and the money. im kind of shocked.


Sent from my Rotary Phone using Tapatalk

What I've been saying for years how the price of pitching is skyrocketing. I am sorry that you have yet to adjust the price of what front of the rotation pitching costs at this time because low 20 millions isn't what it was just two-three years.

 

[DewsSox79]

What I've been saying for years how the price of pitching is skyrocketing. I am sorry that you have yet to adjust the price of what front of the rotation pitching costs at this time because low 20 millions isn't what it was just two-three years.

omfg. I.get.that. he is an unknown. 160 + 20 = 180. no one knows if hr can live up to being over a 2! so you are saying that he is worth the 2nd highest paid pitcher because of the market when he never pitched here before? really? how can you justify that?


Sent from my Rotary Phone using Tapatalk

 

[DewsSox79]

i bet if theo said "no way am i going to pursue tanaka" most of you would be like "yea, heszz gonna get teh paidsz way tooz muchzz" "theo is right to saveszz the monies for someonez elsesz" fact.


Sent from my Rotary Phone using Tapatalk

 

[nickofypres]

:andruw:

 

[CSF77]

i bet if theo said "no way am i going to pursue tanaka" most of you would be like "yea, heszz gonna get teh paidsz way tooz muchzz" "theo is right to saveszz the monies for someonez elsesz" fact.


Sent from my Rotary Phone using Tapatalk

Only way I'm getting mad is if Theo bids 120 mil. No way he wins with that bid and why bother even putting up a bid that will lose. It would be a we tried.

I would rather have him over bid and win or over bid and Tanaka takes less to play on a play off team. Those 2 situations are acceptable.

Trying to lose and not spending early on with the excuse of trying to get Tanaka is about as shitty as it gets.

 

[dabynsky]

omfg. I.get.that. he is an unknown. 160 + 20 = 180. no one knows if hr can live up to being over a 2! so you are saying that he is worth the 2nd highest paid pitcher because of the market when he never pitched here before? really? how can you justify that?


Sent from my Rotary Phone using Tapatalk

7/160 is not the second highest paid pitcher. By AAV it would be the 10th highest deal in history for a pitcher. By total value it would be fourth. And even then we are comparing apples to oranges since the players that were signed for higher deals really aren't true market value since they were signed while negotiating with only one team due not being free agent.

The proven angle? Well that is just the catch of the situation now isn't it. If he was proven, then he would be getting far more than 7/160 in this market place. Again, a broken Tim Lincecum got 17.5 million. That is the marketplace we live in at this point in time. I would rather roll the dice on a 25 year old with his stuff then Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez. Is it overpaying? I am not certain that it is, but even if you accept that as an overpay what do the Cubs lack right now? Front of the rotation pitching without any hope in the near term of help from within. I doubt the Cubs would be willing to invest 20% of their payroll longterm into a single player which would be my main concern about this deal. Fair bit of buzz that the all important revenue streams are close to becoming available with a rooftop deal imminent and possible a new TV deal for the 2015 season.

Are there risks involved? Yes, of course if there weren't then again he would be getting far more. As is, he fills a huge need and fits well age wise with the debatable core of this franchise.

 

[daddies3angels]

Only way I'm getting mad is if Theo bids 120 mil. No way he wins with that bid and why bother even putting up a bid that will lose. It would be a we tried.

I would rather have him over bid and win or over bid and Tanaka takes less to play on a play off team. Those 2 situations are acceptable.

Trying to lose and not spending early on with the excuse of trying to get Tanaka is about as shitty as it gets.

Agreed but will we ever actually know the bid? There be rumors of course just like now. I have heard where Cubs bidded around 160. Have heard around 180. I have heard they will bid 100

 

[dabynsky]

i bet if theo said "no way am i going to pursue tanaka" most of you would be like "yea, heszz gonna get teh paidsz way tooz muchzz" "theo is right to saveszz the monies for someonez elsesz" fact.


Sent from my Rotary Phone using Tapatalk

I've been pretty consistent in my regret for missing out on Darvish who I wanted a lot at the time.

 

[daddies3angels]

7/160 is not the second highest paid pitcher. By AAV it would be the 10th highest deal in history for a pitcher. By total value it would be fourth. And even then we are comparing apples to oranges since the players that were signed for higher deals really aren't true market value since they were signed while negotiating with only one team due not being free agent.

The proven angle? Well that is just the catch of the situation now isn't it. If he was proven, then he would be getting far more than 7/160 in this market place. Again, a broken Tim Lincecum got 17.5 million. That is the marketplace we live in at this point in time. I would rather roll the dice on a 25 year old with his stuff then Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez. Is it overpaying? I am not certain that it is, but even if you accept that as an overpay what do the Cubs lack right now? Front of the rotation pitching without any hope in the near term of help from within. I doubt the Cubs would be willing to invest 20% of their payroll longterm into a single player which would be my main concern about this deal. Fair bit of buzz that the all important revenue streams are close to becoming available with a rooftop deal imminent and possible a new TV deal for the 2015 season.

Are there risks involved? Yes, of course if there weren't then again he would be getting far more. As is, he fills a huge need and fits well age wise with the debatable core of this franchise.

Fans have to realize that salaries are going crazy high now. Feldman yes Scott Feldman got 10 mil AAV. Its cause MLB is a 8 + Billion industry now. Players usually get Halve of that. Right now thats not the case. Its more MLB 55% with Players 45%. Players know this so salaries will just keep going higher and higher. SP now a 4/5 cost 10 mi. #3 is 12-15 #2 is 16-20 #1 is 21+ mil. Its only going to get higher farther we go in future. Thats why Kershaw wanted Opt Out. So in 5 yrs he can get paid by Market in 5 yrs

 

[daddies3angels]

I've been pretty consistent in my regret for missing out on Darvish who I wanted a lot at the time.

I can think of couple people i wanted really bad. Darvish, Ryu, Cespedes. Its cause those guys were MLB ready and young. Theo saids that 25 y/o dont hit market alot so when they do have to be part of it. Well those 3 were there and Cubs went all cheap mode. #RickettsCheap

 

[dabynsky]

I can think of couple people i wanted really bad. Darvish, Ryu, Cespedes. Its cause those guys were MLB ready and young. Theo saids that 25 y/o dont hit market alot so when they do have to be part of it. Well those 3 were there and Cubs went all cheap mode. #RickettsCheap

I was okay with Cespedes at the time since it was 4 years and then free agency deal. Darvish and Ryu were guys that I wanted a lot. http://worldseriesdreaming.com/2012/10/30/another-opportunity-to-add-starting-pitching-ryu-hyun-jin/ is what I wrote about his posting at the time. Seems comical how much he was undervalued now.

 

[daddies3angels]

I was okay with Cespedes at the time since it was 4 years and then free agency deal. Darvish and Ryu were guys that I wanted a lot. http://worldseriesdreaming.com/2012/10/30/another-opportunity-to-add-starting-pitching-ryu-hyun-jin/ is what I wrote about his posting at the time. Seems comical how much he was undervalued now.

Thats why OAK got him. Cubs actually bidded more but wanted full 6 yrs of service time. OAK gave him the opt out after 4 yrs. Surprised alot of people. Something that Tanaka could want which would surprise everyone lol

 

[dabynsky]

Thats why OAK got him. Cubs actually bidded more but wanted full 6 yrs of service time. OAK gave him the opt out after 4 yrs. Surprised alot of people. Something that Tanaka could want which would surprise everyone lol

Again I was okay at the time with missing on Cespedes due to that. Tanaka might get an opt out clause which is the best of both worlds for the player. If they suck/get hurt they get the guaranteed paycheck. If they deliver they opt out and hit market at a prime age in Tanaka's case.

 

[daddies3angels]

Again I was okay at the time with missing on Cespedes due to that. Tanaka might get an opt out clause which is the best of both worlds for the player. If they suck/get hurt they get the guaranteed paycheck. If they deliver they opt out and hit market at a prime age in Tanaka's case.

With his agent having Kershaw and Grienke both getting opt out i bet that will have to be in Tanaka clause. I could see Cubs saying no unless its after 6 yrs. They want that service time

 

[Chris J]

Just a thought:

If the Dodgers get Tanaka and says its 20MM a year. Wouldn't that put them at $90MM for 4 pitchers. Kind of a scary thought for them since a pitcher could always being one pitch away from throwing their arm out. Especially Kershaw and Tanaka since they have so many innings pitched at a young age

 

[kroger843]

Just a thought:

If the Dodgers get Tanaka and says its 20MM a year. Wouldn't that put them at $90MM for 4 pitchers. Kind of a scary thought for them since a pitcher could always being one pitch away from throwing their arm out. Especially Kershaw and Tanaka since they have so many innings pitched at a young age

Since when has money been a thing for the Dodgers?