The Javier Baez Discussion Thread

[JZsportsfan]

Don't really like how the Cubs moved Baez to SS for the remainder of the season.

I honestly don't think the cubs will be that much better than .500 next season. I could see them being in the hunt for much longer than this season but my honest opinion is unless they get off to a very good start they will struggle through some periods where young team being young and slumps. I suggested them as a 70-75 win team this year. I believe next year you're talking something like 75-80 wins.

The comment I've mad for awhile now is the comparison to the Royals. 2010 was the year that they had "the greatest farm system ever." In 2011 they won 71 games, 2012 was 72, last year was 86 and this year they are pace for 90. If we assume 2013 was similar to the 67 wins KC had in 2010 and this year is similar to 2011, then you're looking at 75ish wins next year and a bigger step forward the yer after.

Similarities between the two? Sure, but the Cubs farm system is better than the Royals was. Cubs have significantly more to offer free agents; both in terms of money and intangibles. Cubs have young players already in place that have experienced success, in Rizzo and Castro, which is something the Royals really didn't have. The Cubs will likely finish around 72 wins this season.

 

[Parade_Rain]

The odds of what? The payroll for what player? Can you get a bit more specific?

Is Lester going to re-sign with the A's? Not a chance. Boston? They couldn't meet on price this season. Why would the off-season be any different. The list keeps going down. So what are the odds? There are more solid pitchers out there besides Lester. It's likely (meaning better than a 50/50 chance of rain) that they will get a TOR this off-season. Now the bat? Sure, I'm not going to go out on a limb about that one, but since Hoyer said they would be in the market for a bat, is there a reason they won't be? Would they consider banking on Coghlan considering Nate went backwards?

 

[brett05]

Is Lester going to re-sign with the A's? Not a chance. Boston? They couldn't meet on price this season. Why would the off-season be any different. The list keeps going down. So what are the odds? There are more solid pitchers out there besides Lester. It's likely (meaning better than a 50/50 chance of rain) that they will get a TOR this off-season. Now the bat? Sure, I'm not going to go out on a limb about that one, but since Hoyer said they would be in the market for a bat, is there a reason they won't be? Would they consider banking on Coghlan considering Nate went backwards?

Ill get to this one tomorrow I hope

But Lester to the Cubs?? 8 to 1

 

[Parade_Rain]

Ill get to this one tomorrow I hope

But Lester to the Cubs?? 8 to 1

OK. So if Lester is 8 to 1, the odds are much better that they sign any TOR.

 

[chibears55]

It doesn't work that way.

Why look for what ain't broke?

What dont work that way ?

Your crazy if you dont think players (especially rookies/young ones) dont look over films of themselves to see what they can improve on.. no matter how good a season you have, your always looking for something to make you better the next year.

Its not looking for what not broke, its looking to see how you can improve..

 

[chibears55]

Just about all players struggle at some point in their first few years at the ML level. I am not calling the Jackson, but I suspect that they will not pitch ~200 innings with a sub 3 ERA.

I am not sure what you are railing against. I did not say they would fall off. I said:
Even the best prospects are going to struggle. Trout struggled this season a bit and Puig is struggling right now.

and

Inherently though this is the problem with putting so much emphasis on young players. Fans are so tired of losing that they look at young players as saviors, when they should be looked at as projects who will need time (seasons) to adjust to the ML level. I know no one wants to hear patience after being told to be patient for years, but the truth is the Cubs will probably need 2-3 more seasons of seasoning for the young players before they really become a threat.

Exactly what part of this do you have a serious problem with.

This is exactly why I post so rarely, the literacy level on sports message boards is very low. To many people looking for an argument and an opportunity to to have righteous indignation.

Maybe I read your thoughts wrong, its just I get the idea that some think Arietta and Hendricks are going to fall off the table simply because they haven't faced every team more then once..

I just think they shown enough, even against the top teams to tell us their going to be decent starters going forward...

Every player struggles over a full season, I just think their struggles will be a minimum, but we'll see

 

[TL1961]

I am sorry to see Castro hurt, and sorry to see him out of the lineup, especially as he was hot at the plate.

But it will be nice to see how Baez does playing SS, and we wouldn't have had a chance to see that otherwise.

 

[Jntg4]

LOL you foolz talking about being good next year... this team is about to take off and win this year's World fucking Series... take that Sox fanz: "2005z"!!!

 

[beckdawg]

Similarities between the two? Sure, but the Cubs farm system is better than the Royals was.

In hindsight perhaps, but the Royals not only had 3 top 15 prospects but had substantially more depth than the current cubs. And it's easy to say the cubs are better now because we don't know which players will ultimately fail. If I'm right about Baez and he ends up a disappointment like Moustakes that changes the view off their system substantially not to mention any other failures.

 

[brett05]

What dont work that way ?

Your crazy if you dont think players (especially rookies/young ones) dont look over films of themselves to see what they can improve on.. no matter how good a season you have, your always looking for something to make you better the next year.

Its not looking for what not broke, its looking to see how you can improve..

Thats different than looking for flaws but hey, you and your thank buddies knew that. ..:lol:

 

[chibears55]

Thats different than looking for flaws but hey, you and your thank buddies knew that. ..:lol:

Ok ???

My thank buddies ? You thank me as much as everyone else. .lol

 

[brett05]

Ok ???

My thank buddies ? You thank me as much as everyone else. .lol

lol...ok

 

[brett05]

Ill get to this one tomorrow I hope

But Lester to the Cubs?? 8 to 1

OK. So if Lester is 8 to 1, the odds are much better that they sign any TOR.

I'm not sure you understand the math involved, but no, it's not. It's worse. 8 to 1 odds means it's about a 12.5% chance on landing Lester and only because of the "Theo effect." If you mean better than 8 to 1 on any TOR. I'd say yes, but no where near the 50/50 you stated.

Let me explain my thoughts on Lester.

He has said he's coming back to Boston. Boston has indicated they will attempt to reacquire him in the offseason. Both to some extent have continued this love affair. It is true something could not have been worked out prior to the deadline, but this is an outlier case that I don't think has happened in sports before let alone baseball IIRC.

So let's just say Boston is the favorite. Then the Cubs? No and here's why. As I stated before the Cubs are not in the position to acquire a TOR via FA. They are too far away from being a legit contender for a Championship for a FA TOR. Like Beckdawg very nicely showed, they are at a very optimistic look at things, two to three years away from turning the corner from pretenders to contenders. (Right now they are turning the corner from doormats to pretenders). Lester as any TOR FA pitcher wants one of two things. A Ring and/or Cash. Coming to the Cubs won't really happen for the Ring. Not in the first 2/3 of the TOR FA contract when the pitcher will be most effective. So the Ring part is out this offseason for the Cubs.

But what about the Cash? The saying is Cash is King! And it certainly is. And the Cubs can do just that. Let's say the best offer a contending team gives Lester is a five year $100 million dollar offer. A 20% Bump on that in cash and possibly an additional year bringing the value from $20 million to $24 million per and the Cubs can do it. To date, the Cubs under this regime have not shown they are willing to do this.

"But he'll have no where to go." Yeah right. No one is looking for pitching. Everyone is convinced that If not Boston certainly not Oakland. But they have the payroll to do so. I think being wanted matter to Lester and clearly he was by Oakland. What other teams could afford Lester? Just off the top of my head besides the Cubs.....Yankees, Orioles, Indians, Royals, White Sox, Rangers, Mariners, Andels, Dodgers, Mets, Cardinals, Phillies. What teams could be the contenders next year realistically (quick side note...realistically would be half of those people that make a living covering MLB picking them as a 2015 Contender)....Angels, A's, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Blue Jays, Braves, Nats, Cardinals, Pirates, Giants, Dodgers.... That's a lot of teams that meet at least one of the requirements in my eyes.

So do I think the Cubs are 50/50 on landing a TOR via FA in the 2014 offseason? No for the rationale stated. 2015 offseason seems much more probable of this being true depending on how the kids play next year.

 

[CSF77]

That is a solid point Brett.

Looking at it that way I would wait til the dead line next year. At that point they should know what they have with Alcantara and Baez. Bryant at 3B and Russell ready thus freeing up Castro.

Also that is enough time to see if Hendricks is legit or not.

So this off season they should focus on shedding Jackson. They are 6 deep with out him and all 6 they control next year. Out of those 6 they need to pick the top 5. Even though I wouldn't mind if they played Japan style rotations where they run 6 and increase the pitch counts. So on avg 1 day a week. Normally every week has a reg off day. Maybe have a 7th spot starter. Just thinking outside the box here. 120-140 pitch counts 1 per week would push these guys into the 8th inning regularly and lessen the need to run a pen 7 man deep.

 

[CSF77]

That said I hope they go after Maeda. He would be as good as Arrieta right now IMO. Not a top end TOR but a shade of grey TOR.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I'm not sure you understand the math involved, but no, it's not. It's worse. 8 to 1 odds means it's about a 12.5% chance on landing Lester and only because of the "Theo effect." If you mean better than 8 to 1 on any TOR. I'd say yes, but no where near the 50/50 you stated.

I included "a TOR" and not just Lester. From a mathematical standpoint, when you add more choices to the pool, the odds are better of getting one of those choices.

Let me explain my thoughts on Lester.

He has said he's coming back to Boston. Boston has indicated they will attempt to reacquire him in the offseason. Both to some extent have continued this love affair. It is true something could not have been worked out prior to the deadline, but this is an outlier case that I don't think has happened in sports before let alone baseball IIRC.

That certainly could happen, but since they were unwilling to meet on terms previously, that would seem to indicate they aren't likely to get that job done.

So let's just say Boston is the favorite. Then the Cubs? No and here's why. As I stated before the Cubs are not in the position to acquire a TOR via FA. They are too far away from being a legit contender for a Championship for a FA TOR. Like Beckdawg very nicely showed, they are at a very optimistic look at things, two to three years away from turning the corner from pretenders to contenders. (Right now they are turning the corner from doormats to pretenders).

Except the Cubs are in a place to acquire a TOR. For starters they have the available payroll. Secondly, your conclusion ignores quotes from professional pitchers that indicate MLBers are seeing what is going on with the Cubs organization and that FA pitchers will want to play for them. A TOR is going to sign a 4-5 year contract. That means the TOR is an integral part of the winning process. They have a stake in the game.

Lester as any TOR FA pitcher wants one of two things. A Ring and/or Cash. Coming to the Cubs won't really happen for the Ring. Not in the first 2/3 of the TOR FA contract when the pitcher will be most effective. So the Ring part is out this offseason for the Cubs.

Hmm. You know what years of a contract a player will be most effective? Wow. We have a lot of fortune tellers on this board!

But what about the Cash? The saying is Cash is King! And it certainly is. And the Cubs can do just that. Let's say the best offer a contending team gives Lester is a five year $100 million dollar offer. A 20% Bump on that in cash and possibly an additional year bringing the value from $20 million to $24 million per and the Cubs can do it. To date, the Cubs under this regime have not shown they are willing to do this.

Yep. Cash is king.

"But he'll have no where to go." Yeah right.

LOL. No one said he has no where to go. I specifically suggested there wouldn't be a lot of teams that make sense. You even said 8:1 odds. That means out of all the professional teams the Cubs have a batter shot than at least half of them.

No one is looking for pitching. Everyone is convinced that If not Boston certainly not Oakland. But they have the payroll to do so. I think being wanted matter to Lester and clearly he was by Oakland. What other teams could afford Lester? Just off the top of my head besides the Cubs.....Yankees, Orioles, Indians, Royals, White Sox, Rangers, Mariners, Andels, Dodgers, Mets, Cardinals, Phillies. What teams could be the contenders next year realistically (quick side note...realistically would be half of those people that make a living covering MLB picking them as a 2015 Contender)....Angels, A's, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Blue Jays, Braves, Nats, Cardinals, Pirates, Giants, Dodgers.... That's a lot of teams that meet at least one of the requirements in my eyes.

So, IOW, you indicate the Cubs FO has not made a move for a TOR in the past, so they won't pay for Lester, but you just named every team here that may contend or at least have the payroll, regardless of FO SOP?

So do I think the Cubs are 50/50 on landing a TOR via FA in the 2014 offseason? No for the rationale stated. 2015 offseason seems much more probable of this being true depending on how the kids play next year.

I appreciate that you took the time to make a solid post, as opposed to the usual. Your post makes sense, although I don't agree that the Cubs will not be a player in this off-season. While they may not land a current TOR in FA, the FA TOR makes sense, because they do not have to trade talent away to get that pitcher, whoever it may be. They are beyond signing a project pitcher who may be a 4 or 5 if they get straightened out. They will be looking to get someone who is at least as competent as Arrieta. Here's where I believe your post falls down. The switch isn't turned on and off. IOW, They have to get TOR at some point or they will always be pretending. They improve the rotation this year with one. Then they see how the staff is doing and next off-season they raise the bar with another solid 2 or a #1 type. And those signings still won't have cost them talent as they evaluate it next season. That leaves plenty of time for Russell at AAA and not bringing him up until Sept or Spring of 2016, too.

 

[brett05]

I included "a TOR" and not just Lester. From a mathematical standpoint, when you add more choices to the pool, the odds are better of getting one of those choices.

We agree, but still not 50/50 on getting him or any of the TOR for the reasons I stated.

That certainly could happen, but since they were unwilling to meet on terms previously, that would seem to indicate they aren't likely to get that job done.

Except that everything since indicates otherwise. Like I said, an outlier case here is what Lester is.

Except the Cubs are in a place to acquire a TOR.

That doesn't mean anything to the FA and that is what the discussion is about.

For starters they have the available payroll.

You agree with me.

Secondly, your conclusion ignores quotes from professional pitchers that indicate MLBers are seeing what is going on with the Cubs organization and that FA pitchers will want to play for them.

All quotes I have seen, most notably David Price indicates they'd play for any team, example look at the Cubs. Not that...Boy oh Boy, you see what those Cubs are doing? Can't wait to play for them. No one has said they want to play for the Cubs in 2015 like that. Sorry, that's not objectively looking at what is being said. Conversely it would not be objective to say that the FA's don't want to play for the Cubs in 2015.

A TOR is going to sign a 4-5 year contract. That means the TOR is an integral part of the winning process. They have a stake in the game.

They aren't looking to make a team better, they are looking at putting them over the top. There's a difference that you do not talk about for whatever reason.

Hmm. You know what years of a contract a player will be most effective? Wow. We have a lot of fortune tellers on this board!

Ignoring your insult, it's not a lot of talent, look at what normally happens in these situations. We got loads of data.

LOL. No one said he has no where to go. I specifically suggested there wouldn't be a lot of teams that make sense. You even said 8:1 odds. That means out of all the professional teams the Cubs have a batter shot than at least half of them.

Having a better shot at Lester than half the teams doesn't mean they have a 50/50 shot of landing him or any TOR. Many teams are not in the running so they don't count in the odds. It's like saying Hillary Clinton has 99.999999% chance of winning the presidency in 2016 because of the qualified candidates she's in the top one or three people in the US with the chance to win. It makes no sense since I am not a candidate even though I meet all the requirements.

So, IOW, you indicate the Cubs FO has not made a move for a TOR in the past, so they won't pay for Lester, but you just named every team here that may contend or at least have the payroll, regardless of FO SOP?

No, I said the current regime has not shown the willingness to spend to get a top FA.

I appreciate that you took the time to make a solid post, as opposed to the usual. Your post makes sense, although I don't agree that the Cubs will not be a player in this off-season. While they may not land a current TOR in FA, the FA TOR makes sense, because they do not have to trade talent away to get that pitcher, whoever it may be. They are beyond signing a project pitcher who may be a 4 or 5 if they get straightened out. They will be looking to get someone who is at least as competent as Arrieta. Here's where I believe your post falls down. The switch isn't turned on and off. IOW, They have to get TOR at some point or they will always be pretending. They improve the rotation this year with one. Then they see how the staff is doing and next off-season they raise the bar with another solid 2 or a #1 type. And those signings still won't have cost them talent as they evaluate it next season. That leaves plenty of time for Russell at AAA and not bringing him up until Sept or Spring of 2016, too.

I'll ignore another dig and just go on. It absolutely makes sense that the Cubs should keep their current talent and use cash instead of specs for the most part.

 

[Parade_Rain]

This off season will be interesting.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Ignoring your insult, it's not a lot of talent, look at what normally happens in these situations. We got loads of data.

BTW, where is the insult? We are all telling fortunes.

I'll ignore another dig and just go on. It absolutely makes sense that the Cubs should keep their current talent and use cash instead of specs for the most part.

Not a dig. It was a solid post. You should make more posts like this. Seriously. The odds would be 8:1 that berserkfury would request a change of his moniker to rationalcalm.

 

[CSF77]

The team is playing solid ball but it has been Soler that has been carrying the team. To think the league will not adapt is naive.

Hendricks has a bigger chance of becoming Randy Wells vs Greg Maddux.

So it is no sure thing that this team will be good next year even 100% healthy.

We will know more next season. We were in this situation with Rizzo last year but now it is Soler, Baez and Bryant. At the same time proving themselves.

I doubt a front line starter will risk it. Now at the deadline when these guys are what they are is a better time to make that decision.