The Javier Baez Discussion Thread

[CSF77]

Central Links: McCutchen, Baez, Milone, Santana
By Jeff Todd [August 6, 2014 at 12:58pm CDT]
While it remains unclear exactly how long Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates will be out of action with a rib fracture, any significant lost time will obviously have an impact on the tight NL Central race. As Mike Petriello of Fangraphs writes, Pittsburgh will be absent McCutchen at a time when wins are at a premium. It will be interesting to see whether the team considers a move to add another outfielder to the mix.

Cubs call-up Javier Baez flipped the narrative on his debut by homering after an 0-for-5 start. Of course, you could call that performance right in line with expectations; as Vince Lara-Cinisomo of Baseball America wrote yesterday, big power and lots of strikeouts are likely as Baez adjusts to the big leagues. Meanwhile, the promotion carries broader implications for Chicago, as ESPN.com’s Keith Law explains (Insider link). By moving Baez onto the 40-man roster before they need to, and likely foregoing the chance to tack on addition years of control, the Cubs are starting the clock on their efforts to transition from rebuilding to contending. Given the state of the team’s MLB rotation and generally less-developed pitching prospects, that could make the team a player on the free agent market this year, says Law.


That part about being a player IMO makes it more likely they trade out Castro at the deadline.

Starlin Castro ss
7 years/$60M (2013-19), plus 2020 option

7 years/$60M (2013-19), plus 2020 club option
signed extension with Chicago Cubs 8/28/12
$6M signing bonus
13:$5M, 14:$5M, 15:$6M, 16:$7M, 17:$9M, 18:$10M, 19:$11M, 20:$16M club option ($1M buyout)
performance bonuses
2019 salary and 2020 option increase by $2M each with one MVP in 2013-19 or two Top 5 finishes in MVP vote, 2013-19
deal does not include no-trade protection

If a team takes on his contract it will be 2016-2020 (option year) 5+ years of control

In reality they could add Kenta Maeda at 130 mil for 6 years then flip Castro for a top 100 arm later year.

Pitching is what is going to carry the Cubs forward.

 

[CSF77]

I don't think any of these kids gets traded this off season or next trade deadline...

whatever pitching they get will be VIA FA this off season whether its a TOR guy or a level under

next off season is when their going to have to make big decisions on who they want to keep and move...

who playing SS ? Russell or Castro
who playing CF ? Almora or Alcantara
who playing 3B ? Bryant Russell or Baez
who playing 2B ? Baez Russell or Alcantara
who playing LF ? Bryant Schwarber Soler Russell Baez
who playing RF ? Soler or Bryant
who Catching ? Castillo or Schwarber

they have themselves a good ugly situation going into 2015 off season, to where they need to make sure they make the right choices going forward..

reminds me of back when they had to decide between Grace and Palmiero to play 1B and they chose Grace and traded Palmeiro which got a little scrutiny because of the power numbers Palmiero was putting up ( before the steroids shit came about )..

I just don't see them making any positional trades until their forced to make a move

I think the fact Palmiero was "boning" Sandbergs first wife maybe played a part.

 

[CSF77]

My choice:

Sign Maeda and see how the season plays out.

I would run: Arrieta, Maeda, Wada, Hendricks, Jackson

Trade out Wood's arb 2/3 for a prospect or 2. Jackson is too big of a contract to eat but with Wood at 3.9 mil in arb 1 and taking a step back this year it would be wise to sell now. Even if he bounces back he is at best a 4 not a TOR.

Then later year I'm looking at 1 of 2 scenarios. It depends on how the market plays out but the Cubs need to add a LH TOR arm. If they are going good I would go after Cole Hammels. Phills need bats and centering a deal around Almora and Russell makes sense.

But if cost is a bigger factor the Mets have been linked to Castro and I would look into Zack Wheeler.

 

[chibears55]

I think the fact Palmiero was "boning" Sandbergs first wife maybe played a part.

there was also rumors sandberg had Davey Martinez traded for same reason...
cant recall what year that was, wondering if they traded or released half the team after that cause it seem like everyone was sleeping with her.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

I don't think any of these kids gets traded this off season or next trade deadline...

whatever pitching they get will be VIA FA this off season whether its a TOR guy or a level under

next off season is when their going to have to make big decisions on who they want to keep and move...

who playing SS ? Russell or Castro
who playing CF ? Almora or Alcantara
who playing 3B ? Bryant Russell or Baez
who playing 2B ? Baez Russell or Alcantara
who playing LF ? Bryant Schwarber Soler Russell Baez
who playing RF ? Soler or Bryant
who Catching ? Castillo or Schwarber

they have themselves a good ugly situation going into 2015 off season, to where they need to make sure they make the right choices going forward..

reminds me of back when they had to decide between Grace and Palmiero to play 1B and they chose Grace and traded Palmeiro which got a little scrutiny because of the power numbers Palmiero was putting up ( before the steroids shit came about )..

I just don't see them making any positional trades until their forced to make a move

This should be obvious to anyone, we have to see what the heck we have first before moving anyone.

 

[chibears55]

My choice:

Sign Maeda and see how the season plays out.

I would run: Arrieta, Maeda, Wada, Hendricks, Jackson

Trade out Wood's arb 2/3 for a prospect or 2. Jackson is too big of a contract to eat but with Wood at 3.9 mil in arb 1 and taking a step back this year it would be wise to sell now. Even if he bounces back he is at best a 4 not a TOR.

Then later year I'm looking at 1 of 2 scenarios. It depends on how the market plays out but the Cubs need to add a LH TOR arm. If they are going good I would go after Cole Hammels. Phills need bats and centering a deal around Almora and Russell makes sense.

But if cost is a bigger factor the Mets have been linked to Castro and I would look into Zack Wheeler.

All I know is, im actually looking forward to this off season to see them finally/hopefully add a couple long term players to the roster

 

[brett05]

Didn't Raffy get traded because he wasn't showing power??

 

[chibears55]

This should be obvious to anyone, we have to see what the heck we have first before moving anyone.

it should be but sometimes we jump the gun a bit and feel we need to trade people off now before we know if their replacement is ready

not including anyone else that may take a big leap next year..
but the cubs could have 10 legitimate everyday starters either up or at the doorsteps by the 2nd half of next season

Castillo Rizzo Baez Castro Bryant Soler Alcantara Russell Schwarber and Almora ( schwarber and Almora may be the ones held back )

but with just these 10 and not including anyone else that might be knocking on door for 2016, their going to need to decide which 8 to keep and where to play some of them for 2016

 

[CSF77]

All I know is, im actually looking forward to this off season to see them finally/hopefully add a couple long term players to the roster

I hear that. That article made sense. Why start Baez's clock early unless you are gearing up for a run in 2015. Baez needs time to adjust. Soler and Bryant should need less time to adjust to the league.

So If I'm running out a line up of:
Alcantara
Baez
Rizzo
Bryant
Soler
Castro
Coghland
Castillo

opening day I need a legit rotation. Right now I would feel good with Arrieta, Hendricks and Wada. all 3 have been keeping the Cubs in games. Wood and Jackson have not. Jackson is not a easy move. Wood is. Pretty basic stuff here.

So if they are planning to add a TOR then they need to free up the arb2 case with Wood. We are looking at 5 mil IMO and not justified but what he should get.

That said I'm expecting a 3 man battle to take a spot Wada, Felix Doubront and Eric Jokisch. I would give the edge to Wada with what he has shown to this point. But he could fall of the table also. Regardless I don't see them paying 5 mil to Wood next year after this year.

That leaves 1 spot open and I'm expect a investment. Lester is the big rumor but I'm thinking Theo keeps going after the top Japan import. That has been his MO sense DiceK

 

[JP Hochbaum]

it should be but sometimes we jump the gun a bit and feel we need to trade people off now before we know if their replacement is ready

not including anyone else that may take a big leap next year..
but the cubs could have 10 legitimate everyday starters either up or at the doorsteps by the 2nd half of next season

Castillo Rizzo Baez Castro Bryant Soler Alcantara Russell Schwarber and Almora ( schwarber and Almora may be the ones held back )

but with just these 10 and not including anyone else that might be knocking on door for 2016, their going to need to decide which 8 to keep and where to play some of them for 2016

Agreed. Plus there is the fact that Theo has said a few times now that they will be spending money on pitching, never saying they would trade for it.

I see them signing an Ace or two within the next two years and trading someone at the major league level for more prospects to keep things replenished down there. the Cubs are now in a position where any trades they do make they will have the ultimate bargaining power.

 

[chibears55]

Didn't Raffy get traded because he wasn't showing power??

think their reasoning was Grace was better defensively at 1B, so they moved Palmeiro to LF

im sure the trade had everything to do with sandberg wife, cause that off season they traded him and Martinez and in 1989 we saw rookies smith and Walton in LF and CF

 

[beckdawg]

There's a lot here I don't agree with, but first of all 3B hasn't been considered the harder defensive position since maybe the 20's. While the position of 3B is down offensively there aren't that many great hitting 2B either. Baez's bat as a potential 30 HR hitting middle infield is super special.

You're welcome to your opinion dabs but mine is that 3B is a more difficult position. You have to have a better arm to play 3B and balls are on you much faster. As for him being special at 2B, that isn't really the point. If he hits 35 HRs he'll be special anywhere. My point has been consistently about lineup creation and the players you can find at 2B vs the players you can find at 3B. 3B players are almost always middle of the line up hitters unless they are journeymen where you might see them in the 6-9 holes. Baez is quite clearly a middle of the order type hitter.

In other words, Baez playing 2B is an atypical situation by very definition. That means what you typical get out of 2B you need to find some where else. The current selection of players they have relies heavily on them slugging their way to runs because most of them aren't going to take an extra base on a hit with their speed. And to be perfectly honest, I'm not entirely sure that is the most viable strategy. I think they need another top of the order type in the line up going forward and if it's not going to be at SS/2B then where because if Alcantara is the other in CF you're essentially left with corner OF.

That's just my opinion.

 

[brett05]

No expert puts the defense of 3b ahead of c, 2b, ss, or CF. Maybe not even RF

3b is a reaction position.

 

[brett05]

So Far Hendry is looking great

 

[2323]

You're welcome to your opinion dabs but mine is that 3B is a more difficult position. You have to have a better arm to play 3B and balls are on you much faster. As for him being special at 2B, that isn't really the point. If he hits 35 HRs he'll be special anywhere. My point has been consistently about lineup creation and the players you can find at 2B vs the players you can find at 3B. 3B players are almost always middle of the line up hitters unless they are journeymen where you might see them in the 6-9 holes. Baez is quite clearly a middle of the order type hitter.

In other words, Baez playing 2B is an atypical situation by very definition. That means what you typical get out of 2B you need to find some where else. The current selection of players they have relies heavily on them slugging their way to runs because most of them aren't going to take an extra base on a hit with their speed. And to be perfectly honest, I'm not entirely sure that is the most viable strategy. I think they need another top of the order type in the line up going forward and if it's not going to be at SS/2B then where because if Alcantara is the other in CF you're essentially left with corner OF.

That's just my opinion.

Valid point. The Cubs are limited in terms of squeezing in what you're saying, especially if Baez is at 3b. But I think you also have to look at what they're attempting to add in Castillo as an acknowledgement of what you're saying. Furthermore, it makes it evident that there's an understanding not everyone will pan out.

But regarding top of the order, what does that even mean? It used to be more defined what a lead off hitter did vs a 2nd hitter. But both were expected to be able to put down bunts, which is practically a lost art now. If you're foregoing these small ball elements, it might make sense to put power at 2b.

 

[beckdawg]

Valid point. The Cubs are limited in terms of squeezing in what you're saying, especially if Baez is at 3b. But I think you also have to look at what they're attempting to add in Castillo as an acknowledgement of what you're saying. Furthermore, it makes it evident that there's an understanding not everyone will pan out.

But regarding top of the order, what does that even mean? It used to be more defined what a lead off hitter did vs a 2nd hitter. But both were expected to be able to put down bunts, which is practically a lost art now. If you're foregoing these small ball elements, it might make sense to put power at 2b.

In regards to the top of the order, I care less about "small ball" and more about ability to impact the game with speed. One of the reasons I have a man crush on Alcantara is the fact he turns singles into doubles just with his speed. Other players do this by stealing more bases not that Alcantara is bad there either but he's not a 50+ SB type. Basically, what I look for is two of those type of players in front of a heart of the line up which looks very promising going forward. If either of Alcantara or <x> player get on and manage to get to second your talking about a high degree chance they score. Where I run into problems is with players who either homer or have trouble getting to second base on their own in the 1/2 hole. Having someone like Alcantara even just on first when someone hits a shot to OF is far more valuable than someone like Rizzo on first because Alcantara might turn that into third base rather than just second. On the contrary, if you load the line up with too many Rizzo types your counting on a bunch of hits/walks(at least 3) and/or a homer to score.

This being said, 50 SB guys unless they are Ellsbury tend to be easier to find in FA. Bourne for example kind of crapped out after the QO was put on him. So, maybe their idea is it's easier to add those type of players later. I'm not sure. The only point I'm trying to make is it just adds challenge to how you go about adding those type of players where as if you'd played Baez at 3B, he hits like a 3B and Bryant in LF/RF hits like you would expect.

Basically this is the same argument I've made about Castro with the cubs and why I didn't see him as a great fit long term. It's nothing to do with them being bad players or incapable of playing ss/2b. I just feel the game is moving back to what it was in the 80's after the steroid era has passed and in those days you didn't see Baez type players at 2B. The steroid era in some ways warped peoples view of what a middle infielder looks like.

 

[modo]

Saw Baez at the game last night......Hopefully I will be happy to say "I was there"

 

[2323]

In regards to the top of the order, I care less about "small ball" and more about ability to impact the game with speed. One of the reasons I have a man crush on Alcantara is the fact he turns singles into doubles just with his speed. Other players do this by stealing more bases not that Alcantara is bad there either but he's not a 50+ SB type. Basically, what I look for is two of those type of players in front of a heart of the line up which looks very promising going forward. If either of Alcantara or <x> player get on and manage to get to second your talking about a high degree chance they score. Where I run into problems is with players who either homer or have trouble getting to second base on their own in the 1/2 hole. Having someone like Alcantara even just on first when someone hits a shot to OF is far more valuable than someone like Rizzo on first because Alcantara might turn that into third base rather than just second. On the contrary, if you load the line up with too many Rizzo types your counting on a bunch of hits/walks(at least 3) and/or a homer to score.

This being said, 50 SB guys unless they are Ellsbury tend to be easier to find in FA. Bourne for example kind of crapped out after the QO was put on him. So, maybe their idea is it's easier to add those type of players later. I'm not sure. The only point I'm trying to make is it just adds challenge to how you go about adding those type of players where as if you'd played Baez at 3B, he hits like a 3B and Bryant in LF/RF hits like you would expect.

Basically this is the same argument I've made about Castro with the cubs and why I didn't see him as a great fit long term. It's nothing to do with them being bad players or incapable of playing ss/2b. I just feel the game is moving back to what it was in the 80's after the steroid era has passed and in those days you didn't see Baez type players at 2B. The steroid era in some ways warped peoples view of what a middle infielder looks like.

In the national league, if you have a wealth of riches of middle of the order guys, you're better off trying to get them as many at bats as possible, especially since your valuation of the benefits of speed is narrow in relative terms. If you're going to address your concerns, you're better off hitting the pitcher 8th and putting a second lead off guy in the 9 hole.

 

[JZsportsfan]

Looks like Baez is trying to hit a HR every AB

 

[Bear Pride]

You're welcome to your opinion dabs but mine is that 3B is a more difficult position. You have to have a better arm to play 3B and balls are on you much faster. As for him being special at 2B, that isn't really the point. If he hits 35 HRs he'll be special anywhere. My point has been consistently about lineup creation and the players you can find at 2B vs the players you can find at 3B. 3B players are almost always middle of the line up hitters unless they are journeymen where you might see them in the 6-9 holes. Baez is quite clearly a middle of the order type hitter.

In other words, Baez playing 2B is an atypical situation by very definition. That means what you typical get out of 2B you need to find some where else. The current selection of players they have relies heavily on them slugging their way to runs because most of them aren't going to take an extra base on a hit with their speed. And to be perfectly honest, I'm not entirely sure that is the most viable strategy. I think they need another top of the order type in the line up going forward and if it's not going to be at SS/2B then where because if Alcantara is the other in CF you're essentially left with corner OF.

That's just my opinion.

I can't agree about 3b being more difficult to play. I'd say the two hardest things about 3b is fielding the bunt and protecting the line. 2b should get the nod for the simple reason of having to make the double play. 2b also needs more range to field both holes whereas a 3b can cheat the line.

2b also has the majority of the cutoff responsibility, and has to cover 2nd, but also 1st, sometimes, on the bunt. A strong arm is also needed to complete the double play at 2b. Also, 2b and the SS are in constant communication when a base stealer is on base, whereas a 3b hardly holds a runner on.

I think teams can get by with a slower less rangy 3b, especially with a SS with range, but you can't hide a 2b with no range. And again, why would you put a 6'0" Baez at 3b, limiting his good range, when you have a 6'5" Bryant waiting in the wings? Makes no sense at all, imo.