Five homes for Antti Niemi
Out in Chicago, the Cup winner could logically land with two Cup contenders
By Tom Awad
Puck Prospectus
Archive
Antti Niemi is now on the open market, leading to the inevitable question: Where will a 26-year-old goalie with a Cup win on his résumé land?
There are five logical projections (some more logical than others), beginning with a team that's been trying for a few years to get over the hump. Could Niemi make a difference?
In evaluating his possible landing spots, we looked at teams' salary cap situations to make sure they could afford him and also our VUKOTA projection system to see if he'd be an improvement over the incumbent keepers. At Puck Prospectus, we often evaluate players based on our GVT metric; you can get a better understanding of that here and here before you go deeper with these team possibilities.
Option No. 1: Washington Capitals
Incumbent VUKOTA Projections - Semyon Varlamov: 4.0; Michal Neuvirth: 3.0
Niemi VUKOTA Projection - 6.0
Washington has to be considered the most likely destination for Niemi. The Caps still have more than $5 million in cap space. They also have two goaltenders who are both only 22 years old and green. Semyon Varlamov was solid in relief of Jose Theodore in the playoffs two springs ago (at least until Game 7 against the Pittsburgh Penguins) and is clearly seen as the goaltender of the future, but he has played only 55 NHL games. He projects to a GVT rating of 4.0 next season. Michal Neuvirth has backstopped the AHL's Hershey Bears to back-to-back Calder Cup championships, but he is also short on NHL experience. He projects to a GVT of 3.0.
Niemi's GVT projection for 2010-11 is 6.0, so our system sees him as an upgrade.
More important in this possible decision, however, is the perception that the Capitals have underperformed in the playoffs for two years in a row in large part due to subpar defense and goaltending. Since the Capitals failed to make a big splash in the offseason for a top defender like Anton Volchenkov, they may choose to spend their money in net. Their contender status makes then an attractive destination for Niemi, who could become the first goaltender in history to win back-to-back Stanley Cups with two different teams.
Option No. 2: Edmonton Oilers
Incumbent VUKOTA Projections - Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers: -2.0; Devan Dubnyk: -3.0
As befits a last-place team, the Oilers have many holes to fill, but nowhere was their weakness last season more evident than in net. The Oilers placed second-to-last in team save percentage last season at 0.898, and neither Devan Dubnyk nor Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers inspires enough confidence to be a No. 1 yet. (They both project to have negative GVT ratings next season.) The Oilers' best goaltender last season statistically was Nikolai Khabibulin, but his injury and legal problems mean he may not be able to play a single game for the Oilers this season.
With three goaltenders already under contract, would the Oilers actually have the gall to sign a fourth? If they care about being competitive this season, they should. The additions of Taylor Hall, Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson and Jordan Eberle mean the Oilers have a chance of being this year's Colorado Avalanche, a team led back to contention by their young guns. They won't be able to do it without a version of Craig Anderson, and Niemi is the perfect candidate for the job. The Oilers, knowing they often need to sweeten the pot to attract players to Edmonton, might be one of the few teams that would offer a salary close to what Niemi got in arbitration.
Option No. 3: Montreal Canadiens
Incumbent VUKOTA Projections - Carey Price: 4.0; Alex Auld: 2.0
The Canadiens just walked away from another budding European goaltender, so why should they now consider Niemi? Because Niemi's asking price is likely to be below Jaroslav Halak's. With their roster more or less filled out, the Canadiens still have a shade over $4 million in cap room and could fit a $2 million or so contract for Niemi. We're in August already and Carey Price has yet to sign a contract, which means the Canadiens' only signed goaltender is the unheralded Alex Auld. The Price situation has the potential to become an explosive one for the Canadiens; the Montreal media are already whispering "holdout." Signing Niemi would calm this situation down. However, their cap situation is unlikely to accommodate both Niemi and Price. A Niemi signing would probably mean the end of Price's Montreal career and put the Canadiens in a poor situation to trade him -- witness the low return the Flyers got for Simon Gagne.
The Canadiens will struggle this season just to make the playoffs, as they did last year. They have to decide which goaltender they trust to get them there. Niemi's projected GVT of 6.0 is above a projected GVT for Price of 4.0, though.
Option No. 4: San Jose Sharks
Incumbent VUKOTA Projections - Antero Niittymaki: 4.0; Thomas Greiss: 3.0
The Hawks were forced to let Niemi walk because the Sharks signed Niklas Hjalmarsson to an offer sheet they felt compelled to match. Wouldn't it be the sweetest irony of all if those same Sharks were to then sign the Hawks' departing goaltender? Imagine: The Sharks could have a goaltending corps of Antero Niittymaki and Niemi with Thomas Greiss as an insurance policy, all for less money than Evgeni Nabokov made last year.
Like the Capitals, the Sharks are a team whose playoff disappointments have left questions marks on their team, especially -- fairly or not -- on the goaltending. Niittymaki has big-game experience; he backstopped Finland to silver at the 2006 Olympics. But his two-game NHL playoff résumé is a little thin, an area Niemi's track record would address. The Sharks have about $3.7 million in cap room, and while they wanted to add a top-four defender like Hjalmarsson to replace Rob Blake, there is nobody left on the market who would command that kind of salary.
Option No. 5: New York Islanders
Incumbent VUKOTA Projections - Dwayne Roloson: 5.0; Rick DiPietro: 1.0
While the Islanders already have Rick DiPietro and Dwayne Roloson signed for next season, DiPietro's injury history means they might still need another goaltender. The Islanders are in a unique position. They are currently under the salary floor, with more than $20 million in cap room available, so they actually have to sign players to reasonably beefy contracts. Niemi would be a catch for a franchise that has struggled to attract free agents.
Like the Oilers, the Islanders are a young team that is trying to claw its way back to respectability. Roloson provided an adequate .910 save percentage last season, but he will be 41 in October and can't play forever. He does project as a 5.0 GVT, though, which is only a bit behind Niemi. Long Island is one team that could offer Niemi a multiyear deal, which he would welcome as his stock may never be higher. As DiPietro shows, though, the Isles haven't been tentative about signing goaltenders to long-term contracts in the past.
Tom Awad is an author of Puck Prospectus.
