ClydeLee
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No one is guaranteed not to be mediocre, or even terrible, but I rather risk failure for the chance of something greater.
Id be optimistic with Bowels, Gase, Austin, Jackson, etc. I might not be as high on some as others, but in the end Id have hope.
Fox and Shanahan are about the only two names that would be leave me feeling absolutely pessimistic.
What about them in a concrete manner as a coach makes you optimistic about young hot coordinators like them?
I'm not really high at all on Gase or Austin. I think your indication of the 8-8 mostly in 3 years is likely to fit them. Mainly a lot of young guys struggle as HCs, and they're expected to come into a new team staff with an expected complete coaching staff turnover. They don't a great deal of connections or experience to show they can handle a whole team and keep multiple sides of the football working well. I don't believe in being optimistic of the "unknown" factor because it's not something you have experience to critique.
But we have historically seen HCs who seem mediocre in the past not be that way with new teams. Even without Manning Fox found ways to get his teams to win and found ways to have effective teams on both sides of the ball. He might not be an turn around but It's not a certain average results situation to be definitive. He's not my #1 choice either though.