Vote Castro!

[DewsSox79]

LaHair is kind of there by default but as I've stated earlier, Goldschmidt seems to be the better choice at this point. That's why if Dempster can't go I can see Castro being the lone Cub representative. They're not going to put in Soriano over the other OFs right now.

I read that study on SLG > OBP and while it was true for the past decade (run environment changing etc.) it still stands to reason that not making outs is a very good skill to have, and Castro is flawed in that skill. Making outs almost 70% of the time is bad and Castro's SLG doesn't necessarily make up for that.

agreed. and jntg lahair really doesnt have much competiton in the nl. and i didnt say anything about age. imo the best players should go at the current time


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[Jntg4]

agreed. and jntg lahair really doesnt have much competiton in the nl. and i didnt say anything about age. imo the best players should go at the current time


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Well you quotes my response about age and said "ok co"... but I forgot to press quote so maybe you thought I was talking about another stat.

And Rice, he actually does. OPS is >>> than OBP and SLG and Castro's is higher than both Furcal's and Reyes's.

Anyway, if you take those decade stats, here are the top basic stats that BA has on their league page for run correlation, even if you guys won't accept that as a valid argument, it is still interesting.

This was part of a project I did for school, got a C because we didn't format the report on it right, but whatever. RBI's, runs, etc. have been excluded for obvious reasons (team RBI's vs. team R's, almost the same thing and it wouldn't be in the conversation of individual player stats anyway).

1. OPS - .953
2. TB - .920
3. SLG - .912
4. OBP - .884
5. PA - .807 (makes sense, more players sent to the plate = more runs, but it isn't something to build a team around, you can't sign a player for having a lot of PA's as it would different in a new lineup)
6. H - .794
7. BA - .790 (not as bad as we thought, but higher BA makes higher OBP and OPS possible, so it makes sense)
8. OPS+ - .787
9. HR - .716
10. AB - .661

 

[TheChicagoFan]

oh and obp>slugging.


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No, it isn't

You're wrong JNTG. OBP is way more important than slugging. You hit only singles and your SLG is gonna be bad, but you're still getting on base a lot and probably scoring a lot of runs. OBP > SLG

About Castro: He's the best players the Cubs have.* He's only 22 and because of the Cubs suckiness, he has to be a MLB shortstop when at his age most players are in AA and he might have been moved to a different position because he isn't a great shortstop. (he can be, but isn't yet). There's a reason that he swings at a lot of pitches. It's because he's a good hitter. He doesn't have patience right now and it's hard to say that he sucks because he's actually ahead of most 22 year olds (Mike Trout and Bryce Harper don't count because they are completely different)

*You can argue that Soriano is and I'll admit that he's been good this year.

 

[Jntg4]

You're wrong JNTG. OBP is way more important than slugging. You hit only singles and your SLG is gonna be bad, but you're still getting on base a lot and probably scoring a lot of runs. OBP > SLG

About Castro: He's the best players the Cubs have.* He's only 22 and because of the Cubs suckiness, he has to be a MLB shortstop when at his age most players are in AA and he might have been moved to a different position because he isn't a great shortstop. (he can be, but isn't yet). There's a reason that he swings at a lot of pitches. It's because he's a good hitter. He doesn't have patience right now and it's hard to say that he sucks because he's actually ahead of most 22 year olds (Mike Trout and Bryce Harper don't count because they are completely different)

*You can argue that Soriano is and I'll admit that he's been good this year.

1. No, you're wrong. I have explained why SLG > OBP, it isn't even deniable that between 2002-2011 SLG was the better stat as far as correlation to run scoring is concerned, and that is the point of baseball (offensively anyway).

2. It's hard to say he sucks? Well ya, but it is also ignorant to say he sucks... unless you mean defensively, then ya, he has work to do, but he is also a good hitter at the position. And he isn't only in the majors because of the Cubs suckiness, he's here because he progressed rapidly and the team decided he was ready, last season shows that he definitely belonged in the MLB. And yes, he is way ahead of the average 22 year old.

 

[dabynsky]

1. No, you're wrong. I have explained why SLG > OBP, it isn't even deniable that between 2002-2011 SLG was the better stat as far as correlation to run scoring is concerned, and that is the point of baseball (offensively anyway).

2. It's hard to say he sucks? Well ya, but it is also ignorant to say he sucks... unless you mean defensively, then ya, he has work to do, but he is also a good hitter at the position.

Correlation does not imply causation.

 

[Jntg4]

Correlation does not imply causation.

Fact is that higher slugging = higher runs to a higher extent than higher on-base = higher runs... though I would be interested in you expanding on that.

 

[TheChicagoFan]

1. No, you're wrong. I have explained why SLG > OBP, it isn't even deniable that between 2002-2011 SLG was the better stat as far as correlation to run scoring is concerned, and that is the point of baseball (offensively anyway).

2. It's hard to say he sucks? Well ya, but it is also ignorant to say he sucks... unless you mean defensively, then ya, he has work to do, but he is also a good hitter at the position. And he isn't only in the majors because of the Cubs suckiness, he's here because he progressed rapidly and the team decided he was ready, last season shows that he definitely belonged in the MLB. And yes, he is way ahead of the average 22 year old.

Let's take a look at some players:
A: .304/.352/.408
B: .272/.300/.373
C: .312/.400/.582
D: .315/.366/.625

Which is the most valuable to scoring runs? You say that the player with the best SLG will score the most runs right?

Let's rank the amount of runs scored:
Player C: 47
Player A: 40
Player B: 38
Player D: 36

And look who actually scored the most runs. The guy with the highest OBP.

 

[dabynsky]

Fact is that higher slugging = higher runs to a higher extent than higher on-base = higher runs... though I would be interested in you expanding on that.

Correlation does not imply causation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Basically correlation shows a relationship between two variables, but that does not guarantee that the relationship is causal.

 

[Jntg4]

Let's take a look at some players:
A: .304/.352/.408
B: .272/.300/.373
C: .312/.400/.582
D: .315/.366/.625

Which is the most valuable to scoring runs? You say that the player with the best SLG will score the most runs right?

Let's rank the amount of runs scored:
Player C: 47
Player A: 40
Player B: 38
Player D: 36

And look who actually scored the most runs. The guy with the highest OBP.

:Obama: way to misinterpret everything. The runs we're as a team stat, I don't care who scores the runs as it is irrelevant. And OPS>Both, and that guy had a .982! And I've shown that over the last ten years SLG has accounted for more runs as a team stat than OBP, 300 teams >>>>>> 4 players.

Even if it isn't the cause, 10 years of stats suggest that SLG teams are bound to score more than OBP teams, it is undeniable that it happens... I definitely see the trend there.

 

[Jntg4]

The section you linked me too suggests that if something goes up it could be because of something else instead, but I have used a large enough of a sample size that the reverse and the other factor would balance out.

It isn't like I took one case where the Rangers had a higher SLG than another team with a higher OBP, but the Rangers had more runs... I used data from 300 teams, it is definitely a trend.

 

[dabynsky]

I would suggest that there are a lot of factors at play here, and that while the relationship was stronger during a 10 year period I don't think that guarantees it is more important.

Plus logically speaking Rice is right about out prevention being the most important offensive skill.

 

[Jntg4]

I would suggest that there are a lot of factors at play here, and that while the relationship was stronger during a 10 year period I don't think that guarantees it is more important.

Plus logically speaking Rice is right about out prevention being the most important offensive skill.

Outs are included in SLG too

 

[dabynsky]

Outs are included in SLG too

and outs are included in batting average, but neither is a particularly good measure of out prevention.

 

[Jntg4]

and outs are included in batting average, but neither is a particularly good measure of out prevention.

SLG is a better measure of run production than OBP is though

 

[dabynsky]

SLG is a better measure of run production than OBP is though

I think that the issue is more complex than a slightly higher correlation coefficient of ten years of data during one of the most homerun friendly eras in baseball would indicate.

 

[TheChicagoFan]

way to misinterpret everything. The runs we're as a team stat, I don't care who scores the runs as it is irrelevant. And OPS>Both, and that guy had a .982! And I've shown that over the last ten years SLG has accounted for more runs as a team stat than OBP, 300 teams >>>>>> 4 players.

Even if it isn't the cause, 10 years of stats suggest that SLG teams are bound to score more than OBP teams, it is undeniable that it happens... I definitely see the trend there.

So you're saying that SLG as a team stat is more important that OBP as a team stat?

That has nothing to do with Castro's OBP/SLG then...

 

[Jntg4]

So you're saying that SLG as a team stat is more important that OBP as a team stat?

That has nothing to do with Castro's OBP/SLG then...

Yes, it does. The team star is a cumulative if player stats but an individual players RBI and Run totals are indicative of other players so importance of stats has to be measured on a team level.

 

[TheChicagoFan]

Yes, it does. The team star is a cumulative if player stats but an individual players RBI and Run totals are indicative of other players so importance of stats has to be measured on a team level.

But whether or not team OBP or SLG are more important than each other has nothing to do with Castro's OBP or SLG.

 

[Jntg4]

But whether or not team OBP or SLG are more important than each other has nothing to do with Castro's OBP or SLG.

Yes, they do. Team OBP and SLG are the combined OBP and SLG of 25 players in a way that they can be correlated to runs. Where do you think Team OBP and SLG come from?

 

[TheChicagoFan]

Yes, they do. Team OBP and SLG are the combined OBP and SLG of 25 players in a way that they can be correlated to runs. Where do you think Team OBP and SLG come from?

Wait really? Team OBP and SLG come from the players' OBP and SLG? I didn't know that.

Everything changes now.