Vote Castro!

[Jntg4]

Wait really? Team OBP and SLG come from the players' OBP and SLG? I didn't know that.

Everything changes now.

Well apparently you didn't since you can't see the connection... It has everything to do with Castro's stats, it shows what a player can do to generate runs for his team.

 

[Rice Cube]

But whether or not team OBP or SLG are more important than each other has nothing to do with Castro's OBP or SLG.

The team's overall stats tell you how good the offense should be (in terms of OBP and SLG) but whether runs actually scored is dependent on the sequence of events.

As for Castro, today he went 0-for-4 with a strikeout in four plate appearances seeing only NINE pitches. It's possible that the Astros were just peppering the strike zone but that's still pretty bad. Castro's line is now .297/.314/.431 and while the SLG is still over .400 which you'd like in your good offensive player, the OBP is terrible. You may be able to get .431 of SLG out of Castro, but you have almost a 70% chance that he doesn't do it and makes an out. That cannot be denied, and that will kill your offensive rally. I'm not a good enough statistician to refute the correlation numbers or whatever, but logic says that in baseball, on offense, outs are very very bad. People talk about "productive outs" but unless it's a game-ending sac-fly or squeeze bunt, outs are almost never productive. Despite his average and his SLG, Castro is as productive as he needs to be to become a superstar.

I doubt the ASG coaches and players actually look at that though. They'll probably be forced to pick him since he's the only Cub who actually might grab a spot now that Dempster's out until after the break, but now we're just going in circles.

This isn't to say that Castro is terrible overall, it just means he has a lot to work on and I think that he can improve.

 

[TheChicagoFan]

Well apparently you didn't since you can't see the connection... It has everything to do with Castro's stats, it shows what a player can do to generate runs for his team.

No because a team OBP may be good, but there's a player on that squad that has a bad one.

It has a correlation, but not much. Team OBP is an average of a bunch of numbers. A player OBP is what it is (the amount of times he gets on base per plate appearance). They're really different.

 

[TheChicagoFan]

The team's overall stats tell you how good the offense should be (in terms of OBP and SLG) but whether runs actually scored is dependent on the sequence of events.

As for Castro, today he went 0-for-4 with a strikeout in four plate appearances seeing only NINE pitches. It's possible that the Astros were just peppering the strike zone but that's still pretty bad. Castro's line is now .297/.314/.431 and while the SLG is still over .400 which you'd like in your good offensive player, the OBP is terrible. You may be able to get .431 of SLG out of Castro, but you have almost a 70% chance that he doesn't do it and makes an out. That cannot be denied, and that will kill your offensive rally. I'm not a good enough statistician to refute the correlation numbers or whatever, but logic says that in baseball, on offense, outs are very very bad. People talk about "productive outs" but unless it's a game-ending sac-fly or squeeze bunt, outs are almost never productive. Despite his average and his SLG, Castro is as productive as he needs to be to become a superstar.

I doubt the ASG coaches and players actually look at that though. They'll probably be forced to pick him since he's the only Cub who actually might grab a spot now that Dempster's out until after the break, but now we're just going in circles.

This isn't to say that Castro is terrible overall, it just means he has a lot to work on and I think that he can improve.

And I completely agree with all of this. I said that Castro was good. I said he was the Cubs best player. Read my first post and you'll see that I said that he's good, but since he's only 22 he's raw. He'll get better. Most 22 year olds are lucky to be at AAA and are usually at AA. He's a future star.

 

[Rice Cube]

That should read "not as productive" hehe. Oops.

I know within the past decade it looks like SLG is more correlative, but there's no denying that OBP is important too. Yes, you need gap hits and home runs to have big innings, but not making outs will get you more of those big innings.

 

[TheChicagoFan]

Well apparently you didn't since you can't see the connection... It has everything to do with Castro's stats, it shows what a player can do to generate runs for his team.

Team slugging is more important to the team because they're getting more bases per at bat by all the players. They have power and extra base hits and that makes it easier to score.

Slugging for one player all depends on the player whether it matters a lot or not much. A player that hits mostly singles is still valuable to the team because he gets on base a lot. Just because he doesn't hit homers or triples doesn't mean he's not important to the team.

Getting on base could be his job and hitting a triple or double or homer doesn't happen often.

 

[Jntg4]

No because a team OBP may be good, but there's a player on that squad that has a bad one.

It has a correlation, but not much. Team OBP is an average of a bunch of numbers. A player OBP is what it is (the amount of times he gets on base per plate appearance). They're really different.

True, and the one players bad OBP brings down the teams OBP and run production at the same time. So team stats can still be used to test correlation to runs, determining which player stats are best.

Team slugging is more important to the team because they're getting more bases per at bat by all the players. They have power and extra base hits and that makes it easier to score.

Slugging for one player all depends on the player whether it matters a lot or not much. A player that hits mostly singles is still valuable to the team because he gets on base a lot. Just because he doesn't hit homers or triples doesn't mean he's not important to the team.

Getting on base could be his job and hitting a triple or double or homer doesn't happen often.

I didn't say OBP doesn't matter, but SLG is marginally better, and OPS trumps both.

 

[TheChicagoFan]

True, and the one players bad OBP brings down the teams OBP and run production at the same time. So team stats can still be used to test correlation to runs, determining which player stats are best.

Yes. But it all depends on the type of player depending on the stat.

I didn't say OBP doesn't matter, but SLG is marginally better, and OPS trumps both.

SLG is better for certain players. But if it's a mostly single hitting player, his SLG doesn't tell you much about him because it probably isn't very high. That same player might score a lot of runs and get on base a lot though.

Agree that OPS is better than those two though. The best is OPS+. Just easier to tell above average/not

 

[Rice Cube]

I think OPS uses funky denominators and SLG gives way too much credit for home runs, which is why wOBA was invented (still don't fully understand how the weights are calculated but each outcome has an appropriate weight to it). Agreed that OPS+ should be used because it tells you whether a guy is above or below average. Just for shits and giggles, before today's 0-for, Castro had a 103 OPS+ so he's pretty much a league average hitter.

 

[TheChicagoFan]

I think OPS uses funky denominators and SLG gives way too much credit for home runs, which is why wOBA was invented (still don't fully understand how the weights are calculated but each outcome has an appropriate weight to it). Agreed that OPS+ should be used because it tells you whether a guy is above or below average. Just for shits and giggles, before today's 0-for, Castro had a 103 OPS+ so he's pretty much a league average hitter.

Oh for sure. There's things way better than SLG, OPS, etc.

That would be accurate about Castro. League average. Right now. He'll be somewhere around 120-130 OPS+ in the future.

 

[Rice Cube]

Oh for sure. There's things way better than SLG, OPS, etc.

That would be accurate about Castro. League average. Right now. He'll be somewhere around 120-130 OPS+ in the future.

Depends on whether he walks more and hits for more power. If he doesn't develop power, the irony is that he'll just keep getting peppered with strikes and will have to swing at them to protect. So I think he needs to recognize the strike zone better and hit the weight room.

Found a couple interesting links...

What Hitting Metrics Correlate Year-to-Year? - Beyond the Box Score

OBP, SLG and OPS are around the same correlation based on this guy's metric.

Section 5: Correlations by team stats

This one gives the edge to OBP, just barely over SLG.

I have read studies suggesting that OBP is a better skill to have than SLG and vice versa, but it's definitely a good idea to avoid making outs. I don't think Castro does a good enough job of that yet. He's still one of the cornerstones of the Cubs' future but I don't think he's an All-Star except based on the one-per-team rule this season. I think that's mostly what we said, and I'm actually kind of glad that Castro isn't leading the fan vote because it suggests that some fans are actually paying attention.

 

[Rice Cube]

I also note that Tom Tango usually uses 1.7*OBP + SLG or 1.8*OBP + SLG to correlate to runs scored, which suggests that the dude who wrote "The Book" also thinks OBP is more important than SLG. If you're not going to hit the ball over the wall very often, the ability to not make an out is amplified.

 

[Jntg4]

I think OPS uses funky denominators and SLG gives way too much credit for home runs, which is why wOBA was invented (still don't fully understand how the weights are calculated but each outcome has an appropriate weight to it). Agreed that OPS+ should be used because it tells you whether a guy is above or below average. Just for shits and giggles, before today's 0-for, Castro had a 103 OPS+ so he's pretty much a league average hitter.

Not many SS are higher, and even if the weighting is off, it still works well enough as expressed earlier.

 

[Jntg4]

Depends on whether he walks more and hits for more power. If he doesn't develop power, the irony is that he'll just keep getting peppered with strikes and will have to swing at them to protect. So I think he needs to recognize the strike zone better and hit the weight room.

Found a couple interesting links...

What Hitting Metrics Correlate Year-to-Year? - Beyond the Box Score

OBP, SLG and OPS are around the same correlation based on this guy's metric.

Section 5: Correlations by team stats

This one gives the edge to OBP, just barely over SLG.

I have read studies suggesting that OBP is a better skill to have than SLG and vice versa, but it's definitely a good idea to avoid making outs. I don't think Castro does a good enough job of that yet. He's still one of the cornerstones of the Cubs' future but I don't think he's an All-Star except based on the one-per-team rule this season. I think that's mostly what we said, and I'm actually kind of glad that Castro isn't leading the fan vote because it suggests that some fans are actually paying attention.

As I said, the difference was marginal... So perhaps different sample sizes yield different results. I think a 10 year sample size is conventional but meh. Even if they are about the same that still gives Castro and edge over Furcal due to how much he beat him by, and thus the higher OPS.

 

[Rice Cube]

As I said, the difference was marginal... So perhaps different sample sizes yield different results. I think a 10 year sample size is conventional but meh. Even if they are about the same that still gives Castro and edge over Furcal due to how much he beat him by, and thus the higher OPS.

It doesn't really matter if Furcal got the vote and Jed Lowrie is the likely Astros representative :lol: You might just have to accept that Castro might not make the ASG.

 

[Jntg4]

It doesn't really matter if Furcal got the vote and Jed Lowrie is the likely Astros representative :lol: You might just have to accept that Castro might not make the ASG.

IK that, I just disagree with it and am trying to fathom how Dewey says that taking Castro over Furcal makes one a homer

 

[Jntg4]

I agree that Lowrie needs to be in and is more deserving than Castro.

 

[Rice Cube]

IK that, I just disagree with it and am trying to fathom how Dewey says that taking Castro over Furcal makes one a homer

Furcal isn't even a better defender than Castro at this point.

 

[TheChicagoFan]

Furcal isn't even a better defender than Castro at this point.

Ehhh. It's hard to measure defense. Depends on the game and types of plays we're talking about. I think Furcal might be better.

And Furcal is having an off year. I wouldn't say that Furcal is outright better than Castro is, but it's close.

 

[Rice Cube]

Ehhh. It's hard to measure defense. Depends on the game and types of plays we're talking about. I think Furcal might be better.

And Furcal is having an off year. I wouldn't say that Furcal is outright better than Castro is, but it's close.

Defensive metrics are pure crap, but Castro has more range and a better arm so I think you have to give the young man an edge.