What would you do with Alfonso Soriano?

What do you do?

  • Start him in LF every day

    Votes: 5 27.8%
  • Bench/platoon guy

    Votes: 3 16.7%
  • Release/trade

    Votes: 10 55.6%

  • Total voters
    18

Uman85

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That's what it really boils down to. The Cubs are going to spend the money regardless, and if they take on Roberts, they'll be paying Soriano some on top of an uncertain Roberts. When the Cubs let Ramirez walk, traded Marshall and Zambrano, it's clear a rebuild is in full effect. Soriano is likely to tag along because no one else wants his contract.

Food for thought, If Soriano is the only person blocking Brett Jackson, maybe Jackson isn't all that and a bag of chips. I would say Byrd would be blocking Jackson. :dunno:

Depends on how delicious the chips are.
 

Rice Cube

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That's what it really boils down to. The Cubs are going to spend the money regardless, and if they take on Roberts, they'll be paying Soriano some on top of an uncertain Roberts. When the Cubs let Ramirez walk, traded Marshall and Zambrano, it's clear a rebuild is in full effect. Soriano is likely to tag along because no one else wants his contract.

Food for thought, If Soriano is the only person blocking Brett Jackson, maybe Jackson isn't all that and a bag of chips. I would say Byrd would be blocking Jackson. :dunno:

There's a bunch of other outfielders they're going to start the year with. Byrd and Soriano are probably trade fodder, so you have DeJesus, Johnson, Sappelt and Campana in the wings as well as Blake DeWitt and Jeff Baker who can plug in. The only reason Brett Jackson is still down is procedural: the Cubs want to keep him down long enough to ensure almost 7 full years of club control.

Put simply, the only thing blocking Brett Jackson is Brett Jackson. How soon he comes up depends on how he does at Iowa to start the season because I doubt they want to give up that extra club control, especially during a rebuild.
 

Captain Obvious

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rice put it well

also, we are not debating "oh, well with or without soriano in the next couple of years, we're going to suck and he's going to continue to age and decline"

well duh

this has more to do with comparing individual value at the current time between the outfielders...i never said soriano was the 2nd or 3rd best long term option at outfield...but right now thats a completely different argument

Even if Soriano had more value than the other OFers, this season is all about looking at the long term picture. Soriano doesn't fit. Short term or long term, he doesn't fit into the equation.

Hell, I'd rather have Tony Campana over Soriano. Bill James projected him to have a .333 OBP this year. If he can do that, I'd love to see him have a spot on this team. He was worth about 4 runs last year with his legs, according to BP. Over a full season, even with limited playing time, I bet he could put up a win. His defense seems fluky according to UZR, although maybe it is really that good. The point is Soriano sucks and helps this team not in the short term or the long term.

That's what it really boils down to. The Cubs are going to spend the money regardless, and if they take on Roberts, they'll be paying Soriano some on top of an uncertain Roberts. When the Cubs let Ramirez walk, traded Marshall and Zambrano, it's clear a rebuild is in full effect. Soriano is likely to tag along because no one else wants his contract.

Food for thought, If Soriano is the only person blocking Brett Jackson, maybe Jackson isn't all that and a bag of chips. I would say Byrd would be blocking Jackson. :dunno:

Byrd is a CF. BJax is a COF in the big leagues, by most accounts.

Of course no one wants his contract, but the team is willing to eat money on it. Teams in the AL would love to have his bat at a greatly reduced cost.
 

CODE_BLUE56

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I would amend that because the money was already used unwisely, now they have to save the residual value of the contract and try to minimize the damage. This is a salvage operation at this point.

well, as wisely as we can in this circumstance
 

waldo7239117

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Injuries and age caught of to Fonzie. That's why you don't hand out a 8 year contract at age 30.
 

CODE_BLUE56

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Even if Soriano had more value than the other OFers, this season
:yep: thats been my whole argument..nothing really more or less


is all about looking at the long term picture. Soriano doesn't fit. Short term or long term, he doesn't fit into the equation.

short term...probably alot moreso than long term...now he is our only real power hitter and can get runs in...our offense gets believably even worse without him

but you're mostly right

still the debate about soriano compared to other cubs OF didnt really have to do with long term or whether or not he technically fits...its about current relative value


Hell, I'd rather have Tony Campana over Soriano. Bill James projected him to have a .333 OBP this year. If he can do that, I'd love to see him have a spot on this team. He was worth about 4 runs last year with his legs, according to BP. Over a full season, even with limited playing time, I bet he could put up a win. His defense seems fluky according to UZR, although maybe it is really that good. The point is Soriano sucks and helps this team not in the short term or the long term.

your opinion..in some aspects campana is certainly better

but i honestly dont think its a question when you compare relative values

i have alot of respect for bill james...but even in detailed extrapolation and deviation with data...predicting future outputs can be a serious crapshoot regarding variables

campana's calling card is hitting and just pure speed...in many ways he is the opposite of the current soriano(the one with degraded physical tools..feels like ages ago when he was still athletic and flirting with 30-30 and even 40-40)

i'm not so sure that he is really suited for a starting role..i think he's may be another platoon guy...but he's pretty good at getting on base and producing imo(his on base % his rookie year wasnt very good..but i think he may very well be that kind of player looking at his minor league stats...jmo though)

i dont think campana is a great defender at this point(better than soriano? ya probably)...but he has very good tools and his speed lets him cover more balls in the outfield...UZR is not my favorite stat though...i mean hasnt soriano had even in recent year good UZR?

however, we know that soriano is actually not that good of a defender at all
 

Captain Obvious

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:yep: thats been my whole argument..nothing really more or less

I still can't agree with that statement. Campana, Byrd, and DeJesus all had better seasons last year. Soriano's bat is just not that good. His lack of OBP really pulls down his ability to SLG. OBP*1.8 = SLG. Roughly. As long as there are at least 3 better starting OFers, he needs to go. Soriano would be awful off of the bench. He's only valuable starting. We have 5 though, IMO. Soriano is just not that good.


but i honestly dont think its a question when you compare relative values

How not? I mean, Soriano does one thing well. He slugs. Campana plays pretty decent defense, he runs, and if he can get on base, I think he deserves a roster spot. Not a starting spot, but a roster spot, sure.
 

CODE_BLUE56

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I still can't agree with that statement. Campana, Byrd, and DeJesus all had better seasons last year. Soriano's bat is just not that good. His lack of OBP really pulls down his ability to SLG. OBP*1.8 = SLG. Roughly. As long as there are at least 3 better starting OFers, he needs to go. Soriano would be awful off of the bench. He's only valuable starting. We have 5 though, IMO. Soriano is just not that good.

campana is young, more raw and didnt start last year...his OBP wasnt much better than soriano's

byrd im not going to argue too much

dejesus is debatable..his offense took a large dip but his defense compensates for that




How not? I mean, Soriano does one thing well. He slugs. Campana plays pretty decent defense, he runs, and if he can get on base, I think he deserves a roster spot. Not a starting spot, but a roster spot, sure.

ya and he does it quite a bit better than anyone left on the team..and whether you think is an elementary approach or not...power hitting and RBIs are still very,very,very, important

i'm not claiming soriano is great or even a good player....my argument has more to do with comparing the cubs outfield than actually making a case for soriano being a really good player
 

Rice Cube

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I believe the value argument can still work if one were to ship Soriano away and eat most of the money to get something back.

1. Let's say you send Soriano somewhere and save $10MM overall. That's $10MM you can now apply to, say, Matt Cain instead of Soriano being a statue in LF.

2. Let's say you send Soriano somewhere and eat all the money but get a prospect back. Prospect is meh, but at least he can still run and play defense and thus might be of more value than Soriano overall. So in this case you've increased the value coming back from the money sunk into Soriano, regardless of how awesome Soriano's SLG is.

Either way, the Cubs are likely not contending until Soriano's contract is up. So the choice is whether you want to spend it on Soriano as he gets worse and worse (likely, but not guaranteed) or on someone who might pan out when the Cubs are contenders again. As of right now I don't think the Cubs care as much about the MLB roster, so I would say that you need to dismiss the present OF production argument.

This is not discounting your argument that at present Soriano is likely the best power threat on the team. I'm just saying that for the big picture, it doesn't matter.
 

CODE_BLUE56

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I believe the value argument can still work if one were to ship Soriano away and eat most of the money to get something back.

1. Let's say you send Soriano somewhere and save $10MM overall. That's $10MM you can now apply to, say, Matt Cain instead of Soriano being a statue in LF.

2. Let's say you send Soriano somewhere and eat all the money but get a prospect back. Prospect is meh, but at least he can still run and play defense and thus might be of more value than Soriano overall. So in this case you've increased the value coming back from the money sunk into Soriano, regardless of how awesome Soriano's SLG is.

Either way, the Cubs are likely not contending until Soriano's contract is up. So the choice is whether you want to spend it on Soriano as he gets worse and worse (likely, but not guaranteed) or on someone who might pan out when the Cubs are contenders again. As of right now I don't think the Cubs care as much about the MLB roster, so I would say that you need to dismiss the present OF production argument.

This is not discounting your argument that at present Soriano is likely the best power threat on the team. I'm just saying that for the big picture, it doesn't matter.

well,ya of course it doesnt matter in the context of the cubs situation

i understand what you're saying

but obviously that hasnt been my point
 

Rice Cube

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My bad for missing your point *embarrassed* If you're just saying that Soriano is the best power threat and offensive player on the team right now, or at least one of them, I think that's arguably true.
 

CODE_BLUE56

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My bad for missing your point *embarrassed* If you're just saying that Soriano is the best power threat and offensive player on the team right now, or at least one of them, I think that's arguably true.

yep..thats a bit of it
 

Captain Obvious

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campana is young, more raw and didnt start last year...his OBP wasnt much better than soriano's

byrd im not going to argue too much

dejesus is debatable..his offense took a large dip but his defense compensates for that






ya and he does it quite a bit better than anyone left on the team..and whether you think is an elementary approach or not...power hitting and RBIs are still very,very,very, important

i'm not claiming soriano is great or even a good player....my argument has more to do with comparing the cubs outfield than actually making a case for soriano being a really good player

Just because a player doesn't start doesn't mean they aren't more valuable... Campana was better than Soriano and that is without using BP's baserunning numbers. Campana was basically a 2 win player off the bench for us last year. That's really valuable. As for JeDesus, yeah, his offensive numbers did dip, but they are going to rebound, because of his BABIP.

Sure, he is the best slugger on the team, but who says you need a slugger to win games? Plus, it's not like winning games is what matters here. You're saying he is one of the best OFers and that is just not true. I can make a case for everyone: BJax, Byrd, DeJesus, Campana, and Johnson.
 

CODE_BLUE56

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Just because a player doesn't start doesn't mean they aren't more valuable

i know...my point about the bench had more to do with talking about sample size(i.e. compare soriano and campana's AB)


... Campana was better than Soriano and that is without using BP's baserunning numbers. Campana was basically a 2 win player off the bench for us last year.
? campana had a lower WPA than soriano...and a WAR of 1.5..where are you getting this?

soriano still had one of the best wOBAs on the team despite being not being the best hitter

As for JeDesus, yeah, his offensive numbers did dip, but they are going to rebound, because of his BABIP.

seems a little definite...his BABIP was almost as bad as soriano's last year...his babip has been arguably declining...will he rebound? most likely

i dont really know how much you can extrapolate from BABIP and make accurate predictions about next season though...baseball has got to be one of the most variable major sports

seemed like he had issues adjusting to a new enviroment...and he's not getting any younger..dejesus is 35

dejesus is projected to bounce back..but so is soriano...

either way i'm not going to go by the projections for this year for the comparisons...alot can change from now to april,to may,to june,and so on

Sure, he is the best slugger on the team, but who says you need a slugger to win games? Plus, it's not like winning games is what matters here. You're saying he is one of the best OFers and that is just not true. I can make a case for everyone: BJax, Byrd, DeJesus, Campana, and Johnson.


where have i talked about specifically winning games?

um but ya it helps to have a guy who can slug if you dont have a slugger...you have struggles offensively because you may be able to get guys on base and get RBIs...but your hits are worth less bases

it has more do to with the offense than anything else

i can make a case for everyone the opposite way(even byrd though i believe he's definitely better)...i understand there's an argument for every player right now....


i think im done here...nothing more i can really state
 

daddies3angels

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You guys and your NERDY numbers :)


NERDY Numbers=Sabermetrics :crazydance:
 

Captain Obvious

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? campana had a lower WPA than soriano...and a WAR of 1.5..where are you getting this?

BP. They have baserunning stats that are much superior to FG's. 1.5 + 4.2 runs = 1.9 WAR which is close to 2.

soriano still had one of the best wOBAs on the team despite being not being the best hitter

I'm not saying that he didn't. But batting is only one spectrum of the game. The little value that he has as a hitter is thwarted by his position and baserunning.


seems a little definite...his BABIP was almost as bad as soriano's last year...his babip has been arguably declining...will he rebound? most likely

How can you argue it has been declining? JeDesus had BABIPs of .335, .311, .355, and .279. They have been pretty much all over the board.

i dont really know how much you can extrapolate from BABIP and make accurate predictions about next season though...baseball has got to be one of the most variable major sports

Well we can see that last season was his worst BABIP year. He's never been that bad with it and it was also his lowest WAR year since 07. Interesting fact, 2007 was the only other year his BABIP was under .300.

seemed like he had issues adjusting to a new enviroment...and he's not getting any younger..dejesus is 35

JeDesus is only 32.... and while he may have had a hard time adjusting, he's going to playing in Wrigley instead of Oakland's stadium. Wrigley is much more friendly to hitters.

um but ya it helps to have a guy who can slug if you dont have a slugger...you have struggles offensively because you may be able to get guys on base and get RBIs...but your hits are worth less bases

it has more do to with the offense than anything else

I understand that it has to do with the offense, but his OBP is so bad that it squanders his ability to slug. He was worth 1.2 runs with the bat and that gets negated by his position. So yes, he is one of the best bats, he doesn't provide this team with enough to be a starter. If he isn't a starter, he has no value. So for him to be one of the best OFers on this team he needs to start. DeJesus and Byrd are clearly better and if you think that RJ or Campana in full time action couldn't get enough worth with their glove and legs to be worth more than Soriano, you're kidding yourself.

i can make a case for everyone the opposite way(even byrd though i believe he's definitely better)...i understand there's an argument for every player right now....


i think im done here...nothing more i can really state[/QUOTE]
 

CODE_BLUE56

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BP. They have baserunning stats that are much superior to FG's. 1.5 + 4.2 runs = 1.9 WAR which is close to 2.

where exactly did it say he had a 1.9 WAR?



I'm not saying that he didn't. But batting is only one spectrum of the game. The little value that he has as a hitter is thwarted by his position and baserunning.
except its not little...

position? what are you talking about? you're not making it clear what you're saying

baserunning? ehh he's not great at it...but he still got over 50 runs on a terrible OBP...he did have a decent number of ABs...but missed 25 games...



How can you argue it has been declining? JeDesus had BABIPs of .335, .311, .355, and .279. They have been pretty much all over the board.

lol?

other than the spike in his last year with the royals its been declining....335 to 311 and then to 279..but ya one year spike means its all over the place




Well we can see that last season was his worst BABIP year. He's never been that bad with it and it was also his lowest WAR year since 07. Interesting fact, 2007 was the only other year his BABIP was under .300.
well right...but can you use BABIP to make an inference on how the player would do the next year? not necessarily..it fluctuates depending on BA...and BA doesnt always rebound..depending on the age of the player among other variables, it may continue to decline


JeDesus is only 32.... and while he may have had a hard time adjusting, he's going to playing in Wrigley instead of Oakland's stadium. Wrigley is much more friendly to hitters.

oakland was 20th in park factor last year, wrigley was 23rd

interestingly enough


I understand that it has to do with the offense, but his OBP is so bad that it squanders his ability to slug. He was worth 1.2 runs with the bat and that gets negated by his position. So yes, he is one of the best bats, he doesn't provide this team with enough to be a starter. If he isn't a starter, he has no value. So for him to be one of the best OFers on this team he needs to start. DeJesus and Byrd are clearly better and if you think that RJ or Campana in full time action couldn't get enough worth with their glove and legs to be worth more than Soriano, you're kidding yourself.

yet with that low OBP, he still managed to get 88 RBI and 50 runs...he can still produce

negated by his position? obviously you mean something here but its not clear

of course soriano is more suited as a starter...dejesus and soriano imo will rebound a little this year...just my hunch...

again with RJ and campana...its not nearly the same playing longer in a season as a starter than playing on the bench...sample size does matter here
 
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Captain Obvious

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where exactly did it say he had a 1.9 WAR?

It doesn't. You have to use your noggin. FG says 1.5 WAR. But their Baserunning metric sucks. So we use: Baseball Prospectus | Statistics | Custom Statistics Reports: Runner Team Year there you can see he is worth 4.2 runs with his legs. Add that to his 1.5 and you get 1.9.

except its not little...

1.2 runs isn't little? That's pretty small to me.

position? what are you talking about? you're not making it clear what you're saying

His position is LF. LF is worth -7.5 runs.

Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs

basically if you have a SS putting up Soriano's numbers it's going to be a lot more impressive, so he's going to be worth more. But when you have an OFer putting up those numbers it's not so great because it is to be expected.

baserunning? ehh he's not great at it...but he still got over 50 runs on a terrible OBP...he did have a decent number of ABs...but missed 25 games...

Runs don't = a good baserunner, though. Baseball Prospectus | Statistics | Custom Statistics Reports: Runner Team Year He's #160. He was worth a little under a run at it.

lol?

other than the spike in his last year with the royals its been declining....335 to 311 and then to 279..but ya one year spike means its all over the place
Up, down, up, down is not any sort of steady pattern in either direction.

well right...but can you use BABIP to make an inference on how the player would do the next year? not necessarily..it fluctuates depending on BA...and BA doesnt always rebound..depending on the age of the player among other variables, it may continue to decline

Except his BA is down because his BABIP is down, not the other way around.

oakland was 20th in park factor last year, wrigley was 23rd

interestingly enough

True. But you have to think about a couple of things... A) The Cubs were in the top 5 the 2 years prior. & B) The Cubs offense sucked last year and we had a lot of light hitting players. So of course it is going to go down.

yet with that low OBP, he still managed to get 88 RBI and 50 runs...he can still produce

RBI and runs? Come on...

I'm not saying he can't produce. I'm saying he's not a top 3 OFer. Period.

again with RJ and campana...its not nearly the same playing longer in a season as a starter than playing on the bench...sample size does matter here

Campana's bat can't get much worse. And while sample size does matter, his replacement value does go up with more playing time. Soriano was worth about neutral last year when you consider that his bat was 1.2, his legs 0.8, his glove ~5, that gives us about 7, which is negated by his position. So then the only thing that is left is his replacement value. So if we figure that RJ or Campana only has to be worth 0 in the same amount of playing time, they would have to be really really bad with the bat to negate the value that they would accrue with their gloves and legs. Is this making any sense to you?
 
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