where exactly did it say he had a 1.9 WAR?
It doesn't. You have to use your noggin. FG says 1.5 WAR. But their Baserunning metric sucks. So we use:
Baseball Prospectus | Statistics | Custom Statistics Reports: Runner Team Year there you can see he is worth 4.2 runs with his legs. Add that to his 1.5 and you get 1.9.
1.2 runs isn't little? That's pretty small to me.
position? what are you talking about? you're not making it clear what you're saying
His position is LF. LF is worth -7.5 runs.
Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs
basically if you have a SS putting up Soriano's numbers it's going to be a lot more impressive, so he's going to be worth more. But when you have an OFer putting up those numbers it's not so great because it is to be expected.
baserunning? ehh he's not great at it...but he still got over 50 runs on a terrible OBP...he did have a decent number of ABs...but missed 25 games...
Runs don't = a good baserunner, though.
Baseball Prospectus | Statistics | Custom Statistics Reports: Runner Team Year He's #160. He was worth a little under a run at it.
lol?
other than the spike in his last year with the royals its been declining....335 to 311 and then to 279..but ya one year spike means its all over the place
Up, down, up, down is not any sort of steady pattern in either direction.
well right...but can you use BABIP to make an inference on how the player would do the next year? not necessarily..it fluctuates depending on BA...and BA doesnt always rebound..depending on the age of the player among other variables, it may continue to decline
Except his BA is down because his BABIP is down, not the other way around.
oakland was 20th in park factor last year, wrigley was 23rd
interestingly enough
True. But you have to think about a couple of things... A) The Cubs were in the top 5 the 2 years prior. & B) The Cubs offense sucked last year and we had a lot of light hitting players. So of course it is going to go down.
yet with that low OBP, he still managed to get 88 RBI and 50 runs...he can still produce
RBI and runs? Come on...
I'm not saying he can't produce. I'm saying he's not a top 3 OFer. Period.
again with RJ and campana...its not nearly the same playing longer in a season as a starter than playing on the bench...sample size does matter here
Campana's bat can't get much worse. And while sample size does matter, his replacement value does go up with more playing time. Soriano was worth about neutral last year when you consider that his bat was 1.2, his legs 0.8, his glove ~5, that gives us about 7, which is negated by his position. So then the only thing that is left is his replacement value. So if we figure that RJ or Campana only has to be worth 0 in the same amount of playing time, they would have to be really really bad with the bat to negate the value that they would accrue with their gloves and legs. Is this making any sense to you?