What would you do with Alfonso Soriano?

[Jntg4]

It doesn't. You have to use your noggin. FG says 1.5 WAR. But their Baserunning metric sucks. So we use: Baseball Prospectus | Statistics | Custom Statistics Reports: Runner Team Year there you can see he is worth 4.2 runs with his legs. Add that to his 1.5 and you get 1.9.

Worst fucking logic ever. Just because their base running metric sucks doesn't me you add another to it. You take it out and then replace it. You just added onto it.

And how do you know their baserunning metric sucks? Taking the eye test again? I want to see a stat that says that their baserunning metric sucks.

Also, I'm not sure you are correlating it right. I don't think it as simple as divide by 10 and round like you are doing to the 4.2.

 

[Captain Obvious]

Worst fucking logic ever. Just because their base running metric sucks doesn't me you add another to it. You take it out and then replace it. You just added onto it.

And how do you know their baserunning metric sucks? Taking the eye test again? I want to see a stat that says that their baserunning metric sucks.

Also, I'm not sure you are correlating it right. I don't think it as simple as divide by 10 and round like you are doing to the 4.2.

Excuse me for not subtracting 0.1 from 1.9. The correct answer is 1.8, which is still basically 2. It's saberageddon!

I know it sucks because I have the ability to read. Ultimate Base Running Primer | FanGraphs Baseball There's the primer. It's the opposite of UZR. One year sample size isn't gonna cut it for me. BP's on the other hand, uses SB's, 1st-3rd's, Xtra bases, and something else I think? BP's has also been around for a lot longer, which means it has less kinks.

You're wrong. It is in run form. 10 runs = a win.

 

[Jntg4]

Excuse me for not subtracting 0.1 from 1.9. The correct answer is 1.8, which is still basically 2. It's saberageddon!

I know it sucks because I have the ability to read. Ultimate Base Running Primer | FanGraphs Baseball There's the primer. It's the opposite of UZR. One year sample size isn't gonna cut it for me. BP's on the other hand, uses SB's, 1st-3rd's, Xtra bases, and something else I think? BP's has also been around for a lot longer, which means it has less kinks.

You're wrong. It is in run form. 10 runs = a win.

1.8 =/= 1.9, learn fucking algebra. You don't round baseball stats like that either, there is no "basically 2".

 

[Captain Obvious]

1.8 =/= 1.9, learn fucking algebra. You don't round baseball stats like that either, there is no "basically 2".

Yes, there is a basically 2. It is something that is close to 2. Which is exactly what I said. None of this even matters. 1.8 or 1.9, he still had a better season than Soriano.

 

[FirstTimer]

CO fails again.

 

[nwfisch]

CO fails all the time .

Fixed.

I don't understand why there is this much discussion regarding whose the smallest turd in the Cubs outfield this season. If Soriano is benched, it kills what limited trade value he has. Then you still have a $54M contract to ride out, with no way out. At least if the Cubs play him, the chances are slightly better for someone to take him in a trade.

 

[Rice Cube]

I believe they're going to have him start in the OF if he's not traded or released. If he plays that terribly, he's going to be benched before he's released. Sunk cost.

 

[FirstTimer]

Nah, let's just keep letting CO trump up Tony Campana.

The Cubs fans obsession with grindy bad white OFer's continues!

Sam Fuld leaves.......Campana steps in..........who's next? Someone give me a shitty mid to late 20's small white OF prospect.

 

[Rice Cube]

Nah, let's just keep letting CO trump up Tony Campana.

The Cubs fans obsession with grindy bad white OFer's continues!

Sam Fuld leaves.......Campana steps in..........who's next? Someone give me a shitty mid to late 20's small white OF prospect.

If he learns how to bunt better, he'd be on third base every time :lol:

Too bad he sucks at bunting. That's what they should have him work on in spring training.

 

[FirstTimer]

If he learns how to bunt better, he'd be on third base every time :lol:

Too bad he sucks at bunting. That's what they should have him work on in spring training.

I'm sure CO will come in with some shitty bunting metric showing he's good at it.

Also, he will say Campana is the best bunter in Cubs history.Since 2009

 

[Rice Cube]

I think the problem, again, is context. Last year Soriano was one of the Cubs' major power threats despite his shitty OBP. He's obviously a different player than Campana and the others. The problem is not that CO is incorrect in suggesting that Soriano is no longer one of the best outfielders on the team, but that he's making such an adamant assertion based on a projection that itself is based on a limited sample. It is entirely possible that Reed Johnson and Tony Campana cannot sustain their level of white guy legendary grit over the course of a season, but even with that in mind, Soriano is going to get older and slower and so he's more than likely going to get worse.

Now the Cubs have gotten smarter and probably know this (aging curves, projections, blah de blah) but at the same time that's a shitload of money to just eat, so as suggested, they will think hard about cutting him or taking the salary dump. If he's kept, he's unlikely to be benched because they need to build some trade value. So there's no realistic scenario in which one of the white guys starts over Soriano in LF unless Fonzie stinks up the joint.

I have suggested before that it's actually not a bad idea to give Soriano some reps at 1B in spring training just to see how he does. If he can handle it, platoon him with LaHair at 1B and stick him in LF otherwise. But if Soriano stays on the team, he absolutely has to play as much as possible for trade value purposes. Otherwise you might as well just release him since nobody seems to want him anyway.

 

[Captain Obvious]

Nah, let's just keep letting CO trump up Tony Campana.

The Cubs fans obsession with grindy bad white OFer's continues!

Sam Fuld leaves.......Campana steps in..........who's next? Someone give me a shitty mid to late 20's small white OF prospect.

I will be the first to say that I hate Tony Campana. He's a little wigger. But he has value on this team as a 5th OFer if he can get a decent OBP and he is better than Soriano. Soriano is just terrible and needs to be traded because he is a waste of money and is not even one of the 3 best OFers that we have.

I think the problem, again, is context. Last year Soriano was one of the Cubs' major power threats despite his shitty OBP. He's obviously a different player than Campana and the others. The problem is not that CO is incorrect in suggesting that Soriano is no longer one of the best outfielders on the team, but that he's making such an adamant assertion based on a projection that itself is based on a limited sample. It is entirely possible that Reed Johnson and Tony Campana cannot sustain their level of white guy legendary grit over the course of a season, but even with that in mind, Soriano is going to get older and slower and so he's more than likely going to get worse.

Now the Cubs have gotten smarter and probably know this (aging curves, projections, blah de blah) but at the same time that's a shitload of money to just eat, so as suggested, they will think hard about cutting him or taking the salary dump. If he's kept, he's unlikely to be benched because they need to build some trade value. So there's no realistic scenario in which one of the white guys starts over Soriano in LF unless Fonzie stinks up the joint.

I have suggested before that it's actually not a bad idea to give Soriano some reps at 1B in spring training just to see how he does. If he can handle it, platoon him with LaHair at 1B and stick him in LF otherwise. But if Soriano stays on the team, he absolutely has to play as much as possible for trade value purposes. Otherwise you might as well just release him since nobody seems to want him anyway.

I'm not saying that RJ or Campana will be as good as they were. I'm saying that Soriano is not one of our 3 best OFers and should be traded immediately. RJ and Campana should be on the bench, but if we had to start them, I think they could do better than Soriano. I'm not suggesting that a white guy not named BJax should start over him. If Soriano is here, he better be starting.

Someone said that Soriano to be in Baltimore in March. Lemme see if I can find the link...

 

[Captain Obvious]

https://twitter.com/#!/HotStoveCubbies/status/157915351747796995

Hearing from a couple people that they feel Soriano will be in Balt. by March... Mutual interest but clubs are addressing other matters

 

[FirstTimer]

I will be the first to say that I hate Tony Campana. He's a little wigger.

Racist much?

 

[daddies3angels]

https://twitter.com/#!/HotStoveCubbies/status/157915351747796995

Jackson play LF then?

 

[waldo7239117]

I think it'll be Reed Johnson and Tony Campano platooning in LF/CF. Then when March of June hits... Jackson gets the call.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

I think the problem, again, is context. Last year Soriano was one of the Cubs' major power threats despite his shitty OBP. He's obviously a different player than Campana and the others. The problem is not that CO is incorrect in suggesting that Soriano is no longer one of the best outfielders on the team, but that he's making such an adamant assertion based on a projection that itself is based on a limited sample. It is entirely possible that Reed Johnson and Tony Campana cannot sustain their level of white guy legendary grit over the course of a season, but even with that in mind, Soriano is going to get older and slower and so he's more than likely going to get worse.

Now the Cubs have gotten smarter and probably know this (aging curves, projections, blah de blah) but at the same time that's a shitload of money to just eat, so as suggested, they will think hard about cutting him or taking the salary dump. If he's kept, he's unlikely to be benched because they need to build some trade value. So there's no realistic scenario in which one of the white guys starts over Soriano in LF unless Fonzie stinks up the joint.

I have suggested before that it's actually not a bad idea to give Soriano some reps at 1B in spring training just to see how he does. If he can handle it, platoon him with LaHair at 1B and stick him in LF otherwise. But if Soriano stays on the team, he absolutely has to play as much as possible for trade value purposes. Otherwise you might as well just release him since nobody seems to want him anyway.

thats been alot of my point with the bolded...player value can be subject to distortion depending on context..

of course soriano can get worse...but we're not necessarily discussing a hypothetical here with the comparison...it has to do with relative value at the moment..

and the issue with comparing reed johnson and campana vs soriano has to do with the fact that we have not seen their substantiated production in the same circumstances as soriano...thus its hard to necessarily use the stats and say "oh well his value was more..therefore blah blah"

and brett jackson isnt even in the majors yet...and cmon this guy isnt pujols or anything..i think he'll be servicable in his first year...but he wont hit the ground sprinting..if you get what i mean

i'm not arguing that soriano is a really good player at this point in his career...or necessarily the best OFer on the cubs..because he's not...

but i think there's a good argument for him being 3rd..or even 2nd(dejesus is probably 2nd though)

honestly a lot could change from here to now..soriano could continue to get worse..or he could get alot better

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

It doesn't. You have to use your noggin. FG says 1.5 WAR. But their Baserunning metric sucks. So we use: Baseball Prospectus | Statistics | Custom Statistics Reports: Runner Team Year there you can see he is worth 4.2 runs with his legs. Add that to his 1.5 and you get 1.9.

yay for pointless extrapolations

now you're just overrating him....and you're also showing that WAR is not a set metric...thus it is subjective...

nelson cruz and ryan howard have lower WARs than Darwin Barney....

1.2 runs isn't little? That's pretty small to me.

1.2 what? what stat are you using here

he had a good wOBA...i honestly think thats a better judger of offensive contribution than persay some of the other metrics...when you look at how it is created

His position is LF. LF is worth -7.5 runs.



basically if you have a SS putting up Soriano's numbers it's going to be a lot more impressive, so he's going to be worth more. But when you have an OFer putting up those numbers it's not so great because it is to be expected.

well, the positional averages have more to do with who's at those respective positions rather than dictate the player's value itself...does is not?

Up, down, up, down is not any sort of steady pattern in either direction.

meh in the year it was .355 he only played 91 games...so you gotta think about sample size a little there....i think that maybe subject to change...

i'm looking at a relatively recent window..i.e. the last couple of years

there is a declining correlation....

Except his BA is down because his BABIP is down, not the other way around.

they correlate to each other, its not that one causes the other....

True. But you have to think about a couple of things... A) The Cubs were in the top 5 the 2 years prior. & B) The Cubs offense sucked last year and we had a lot of light hitting players. So of course it is going to go down.

well we're looking at last year relatively are we not in this argument?

the offense affects park factor....not totally...i mean the cubs were 3rd in park factor in 2010..and weren't substantially high in HRs or runs overall

park factor is really a year to year thing...so you have to look at it more like that or honestly it becomes less reliable imo than it already is

is wrigley a hitter's park?...yeah kinda.. but the foul lines are the 3rd longest in the MLB...i think the wind direction for wrigley(i.e. in supporting or hurting hitters) is actually close to a 50-50 split when you look at the season..the wind doesnt blow out until really around june i believe..what really makes it justified as a hitter's park is short power alleys...but then again there are alot of other variables

is o.co...its not considered one but it really isnt a deep park....probably has more to do with the foul territory...which is i believe longer than the cubs(though i need to check on that)..i believe their power alleys are only 7 feet longer than the cubs

either way, i think a difference in production from dejesus going to wrigley will have more to do with other variables than just the parks

RBI and runs? Come on...

right...stats are dumb..i forgot lol

except half the stats you post dont take into account context much more than RBIs or runs


defensive stats are subject to distortion by context and sample size as well...you do realize this CO right?

thats the thing about comparing campana and johnson to soriano...

 

[Jntg4]

You know Hot Stove Cubbies is a load of crap, right? The people he talks to aren't even legit sources, pretty much random people. Why the **** are we even posting their twitter?

 

[Rice Cube]

Quick Hits: Soriano, Pedro, Indians, Crisp, Tigers: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Alfonso Soriano reiterated that he is willing to waive his no-trade clause, but only if the Cubs deal him to a contender, reports ESPN Chicago's Bruce Levine. Soriano is owed $54MM through 2014 and the Cubs are reportedly willing to pay most of that salary in a possible deal.

Sounds like that will limit the pool of teams who would A- actually want to get Soriano and B- Soriano wants to play for. Tough task.