Winter Meeting (Trades)

[Parade_Rain]

Why do people keep misspelling Zobrist as Zorbrist?

 

[Boobaby1]

Why do people keep misspelling Zobrist as Zorbrist?

Zorbist the "Greek"? :shrug:

 

[Parade_Rain]

Zorbist the "Greek"? :shrug:

Could be.

 

[Boobaby1]

I know it sounds strange but one reason I don't want to get Heyward is because teams that win the off-season (on-paper champs) seem to never win the WS. Look at Washington last year. On-paper they appeared to be the best team in baseball, but there is so many other elements at play (chemistry, etc) that can't be accounted for.

Heyward would win us the off-season and on-paper we'd look like an unbeatable juggernaut. But it just seems to me that those teams usually have too much star power and not enough intangibles to generate the necessary chemistry.

Is this a total bizarre thought?

I am a little intrigued by Span and his high OBP. Having two guys at the top of the order (Zorbrist and Span) with high OBP% before murderer's row (Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, and Soler) would seem to set the table up nicely.

I would take that any day to be favored, and there are also bounce back years even after a seemingly collapse. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Nationals come back and win it the East this year. The Mets have yet to do anything as far as run support for that staff. and if Wright or anyone else go down, they are screwed and Neil Walker won't carry the torch.

The Mets would be better served to trade a pitcher away for a bat, but I am not sure that Wheeler would be enough to pry away a guy like Todd Frazier. They need an impact bat to replace Cespedes and Murphy. More so with Cespedes.

With the Nationals, a lot had to do with the Scherzer signing. The Cubs don't have that, and frankly, Heyward would be a great fit. It isn't as if we are talking like the Cubs got Price and Trout.

You would be talking of an off-season of Heyward, Lackey, and Zobrist. Good players, but hardly the marquee names known around the league.

 

[Payton!34]

I think that if we sign Heyward to 200 mill he won't be able to live up to expectations. It's almost impossible to play up to that and that has got to make it extremely difficult for the player too. I don't feel sorry for them for 200 mil reasons. I think you probably get better results with a slightly less bigger name and use that money for more than one guy! The guy is a 280 hitter. Babe Ruth must be rolling over in his grave! Maybe I'm old, it just seems like a ton of money for his caliber of play but then again fowler is looking for 15 year.

 

[Payton!34]

Ditto - stud! This guy improves our chances of winning the World Series more than Heyward! Gimme both - **** it

 

[DanTown]

If the Cubs get Heyward, call me crazy, but don't trade any of the young guys. Sure a young rotation arm would be great but the cost would be high and the Cubs don't really need that for 2-3 years. Here's the plan I'd go with

Play Heyward in CF for one-two years, then move him to RF
Wait on Almora
Platoon Schwarber/Contreras/Soler between C and LF

2015
Zobrist - 2B
Heyward - CF
Bryant - 3B
Rizzo - 1B
Schwarber - LF
Soler - RF
Montero - C
P
Russell - SS

End of game, you can be aggressive in using Baez as a PH/PR and then keeping him in the game to play 3B and move KB to LF.

 

[DanTown]

I think that if we sign Heyward to 200 mill he won't be able to live up to expectations. It's almost impossible to play up to that and that has got to make it extremely difficult for the player too. I don't feel sorry for them for 200 mil reasons. I think you probably get better results with a slightly less bigger name and use that money for more than one guy! The guy is a 280 hitter. Babe Ruth must be rolling over in his grave! Maybe I'm old, it just seems like a ton of money for his caliber of play but then again fowler is looking for 15 year.

If you were to predict what player is most likely to be worth 200 million (over 10 years), Jason Heyward may be as good a bet as ever to do it. First, 20 million a year isn't that much compared to the top end of baseball. Secondly, he's easily worth 20 million a year if he's 80-90% of what he was the past years. He's so young for a UFA that signing HIM to a long term deal is likely to not be a bad deal.

 

[Boobaby1]

If you were to predict what player is most likely to be worth 200 million (over 10 years), Jason Heyward may be as good a bet as ever to do it. First, 20 million a year isn't that much compared to the top end of baseball. Secondly, he's easily worth 20 million a year if he's 80-90% of what he was the past years. He's so young for a UFA that signing HIM to a long term deal is likely to not be a bad deal.

To add to that, in eight years, when he is just 34, twenty million is going to be a bargain considering what they just paid Zobrist, especially with the inflation of salaries from year to year.

Just look at what Cubs fans thought about Soriano in 2007. Eighteen million per year for the biggest free agent on the market?

Eight years later, and TOR pitchers are making 32-34 million per year, or roughly, a million dollars per start.

 

[beckdawg]

What's strange to me is people are talking about $200 mil like it's $200 mil over 6 or 7 years. In other words, they are talking about Heyward having to play to a $28-33 mil/season contract. The most common number being thrown around is something along the order of $200 mil over 10. That's $20 mil/season. It's extremely hard for Heyward to underperform. He's been worth 5.28 fWAR the past 4 seasons. Present figures put 1 fWAR at around $8 mil/season. That means he'd have to put up 25 fWAR over the length of the contract. Obviously you have to buy into his defensive value but that's 2.5 fWAR over the length of the contract for a guy who's been worth double that the past 4 years.

 

[DanTown]

To add to that, in eight years, when he is just 34, twenty million is going to be a bargain considering what they just paid Zobrist, especially with the inflation of salaries from year to year.

Just look at what Cubs fans thought about Soriano in 2007. Eighteen million per year for the biggest free agent on the market?

Eight years later, and TOR pitchers are making 32-34 million per year, or roughly, a million dollars per start.

Jason Heyward is criminally underrated for two reasons

1. A lot of his value is defensive so if he slips then he goes from 5-7 WAR to 2-3 quite quick
2. His bat never took that jump that everyone expected

The value for the Cubs is they simply need Heyward to be a .275 hitter who plays GG defense. And 20 million/year for that is a bargain.

 

[brett05]

Jason Heyward is criminally underrated for two reasons

1. A lot of his value is defensive so if he slips then he goes from 5-7 WAR to 2-3 quite quick
2. His bat never took that jump that everyone expected

The value for the Cubs is they simply need Heyward to be a .275 hitter who plays GG defense. And 20 million/year for that is a bargain.

So then the White Sox who got Eaton for 5 more years at roughly 23.5 million is greatest bargain ever?

 

[Payton!34]

If you were to predict what player is most likely to be worth 200 million (over 10 years), Jason Heyward may be as good a bet as ever to do it. First, 20 million a year isn't that much compared to the top end of baseball. Secondly, he's easily worth 20 million a year if he's 80-90% of what he was the past years. He's so young for a UFA that signing HIM to a long term deal is likely to not be a bad deal.

You're probably right! Looking at what we just paid Zobrist and what others are making and what Heyward would be making in 5-7 years is relatively inexpensive. It's just tough to wrap your head around 200 million when you make 75k as a firefighter!

 

[Payton!34]

Great post! Logical

 

[jooo83]

If Heyward signs a 10 year deal it's most likely going have an opt out in 3-4 years anyway. Can't predict what will happen (injuries, etc) but who wouldn't want him at essentially 4-5 years at 80-100 million?

 

[DanTown]

So then the White Sox who got Eaton for 5 more years at roughly 23.5 million is greatest bargain ever?

The White Sox got that price on Eaton because they bought out his arbitration years/one year of FA, not an UFA so they're not comparable contracts.

Also, Fangraphs defensive WAR past two years

Eaton - 1.6, -8.8
Heyward - 17.3, 16.4

So no, the White Sox are not getting GG defense.

 

[brett05]

The White Sox got that price on Eaton because they bought out his arbitration years/one year of FA, not an UFA so they're not comparable contracts.

Also, Fangraphs defensive WAR past two years

Eaton - 1.6, -8.8
Heyward - 17.3, 16.4

So no, the White Sox are not getting GG defense.

Probably goes to show the flaw. He was a finalist if I recall correctly.

 

[Parade_Rain]

If Heyward signs a 10 year deal it's most likely going have an opt out in 3-4 years anyway. Can't predict what will happen (injuries, etc) but who wouldn't want him at essentially 4-5 years at 80-100 million?

Taking the hype out of this crazy time of year, please explain how 13 HR and 60 RBI is production worth $20 mil/year.

 

[chibears55]

@TheCCO: #Cubs | Talks Reportedly Progressing with Jason Heyward, Could Be Deciding Between Cubs and Cardinals bit.ly/1mcZ8aC #MLB

Might have an answer tonight. ..
Would love to stick it to the Cardinals and steal this guy..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I527 using Tapatalk

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer...aybe-1-more-in-heyward-derby-will-it-hit-200m